vsa with Malcolm

An aggressive entry would be to still enter on the break of the high of the test bar but, CARE MUST BE TAKEN. a fairly tight stop loss should be used, in the region of 5125.

Looks like it's not ready to go up yet. If it does go up it will let you know with that successful test, keep an eye open for it. Dont get married to the idea of an up move tho. We have not had volume less than previous 2 which a test needs but, we have had lowering volumes each time its tried!

Got to go now. Good luck.

in my opnion, this is already a test of supply... the overall volume almost half of low friday... they pull back price without volume..

but who know, maybe they wanna mark down price ? can it be so ?

cheers...

I see we had a failed test while I was away. Supply will have to be gotten rid of before we can go anywhere.

GU H1 is showing weakness.

Did you all get the ND on the H1 chart. Entry short on break of the low of the ND.

With the holiday today in the US I dont know if i'd be taking trades at this time of the day, if you choose to be prepared for choppy price action.

gu daily .... do not forget that suply hitting market / end of rising market chart I posted on weekend

1 hour lovely rounded top . This could drop 400 pip plus this week

Thank you so much senior traders, f451, sorry but i got a few more questions, I did check the background on 4 hr n 1 hr, tts y i tool shorts, is my understanding of background wrong?

ya, n i short when i see no demand n upthrust when HMA turned red, so i dun really understand wad u mean by the red HMA ranging instead of trending. When we see UT n ND, tog with red HMA at the start when it just turned red, wun it always look like its ranging?

Hope i manage to convey clearly to you, thank you for your help

Bethel

Yes I agree, and with that entry, we should be short already. Sadly....I was out and therefore missed it.

Looking for another entry tho.

Nothing to do with VSA, but I've got Magix's template on a 15 minute EU chart. It's got more arrows in it than John Wayne's wagon. The problem is there's hardly two consecutive ones in the same direction.

Sorry sir, just hope to ask you a question here, why do you enter before HMA turns green? Is this an e.g. for more proficient traders

thank you for your reply

Bethel

lol good question .. for pro traders only.

the reason i took trade early on that one is that trens is already up in the background and we saw a down move before london being hit with stopping vol.

we need more charts to show what you guys are talking @ with trades setups.....when I go through all these posts...
I find that my mouse finger is sore from flipping back and forth through posts and charts trying to figure out the trades u guys are looking at or what you guys are seeing in the background?

it only takes a minute to mark up a chart and post it....and then...
it's there for all time as reference for others.....and me too !

thanks
A
: )

First chart is an hourly chart. Not sure what to make of the lower volume in the previous high volume area due to the holiday so im taking that with a grain of salt.

Second chart is 15 minute chart of todays action. Looking for further weakness during london when PA is more clear

Please critique analysis

looks good to me...

A couple of quickies, to ponder. Not meant for the gurus.

in Scoties chart below we see that after the UT which he labelled, price went up. Yet, 2 bars after the UT(in the first box) is a ND. UT followed by ND might = short entry at break of the low of the ND. Price did indeed break the low.

Q1. Why did price go UP after the ND, is this a failed VSA setup?


4 bars after the aformentioned UT is another UT. 2bars after that(the 2nd box) is yet another ND. UT followed by ND might = short entry at break of the low of the ND. Price did indeed break the low.

Q2. Why did price go UP after the second ND, is this another failed VSA setup?

I think these bars are not correct ND cause they did not go higher high than previous bars.

1st one seems to be a high churn bar which shows demand coming to the market thus price went up.

2nd one seems to be a hidden test but im not sure.

Regards,

IMHO if we look further to the left on the chart there is stopping volume showing strength with climax volume showing buyers. About 10 bars back from his marked upthrust. Its a down thrust on climax volume. Next bar up showing strength. With the strength in the background it should take a little more convincing to look for shorts. Volume was falling off after his marked upthrust.

It does look to be a valid set up but the trade was a long from earlier and one would be looking to tighten the stop or exit at the signs of weakness.

How did I do Mal? (Any gurus opinion welcome)

Happy pipin

this daily futures chart playing out pretty nicely ..... wonder if we get continuation of this down move into 1.4900 test

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=857

Your understanding of background maybe right - if you're looking for climatic volume bars on (IMHO) 1HR or 4HR or higher timeframes. If you're looking at 30M or 15M you can still see climatic volume bars, but it's more likely they will be spread out over several bars. (You can even see accumulation around a price range on M5 if you look closely at the volume across a number of M5 down bars). Basically you are looking for effort to rise, effort to fall, stopping volume, end of a rising market, selling or buying climax, upthrust, squat bars - bars with very high volume, and either very wide spread, or average spread with very high volume, indicating hidden selling into an up move or hidden buying in a down move. These indicate that there are players in the background buying or selling into the crowd's move. (Very high volume, wide spread bars closing off the top, or off the bottom are clear indications of hidden selling and hidden buying respectively ).

Once you have the background (weakness or strength), you now have a bias for short (weakness) or long (strength). At this point you should start to look for confirmation bars to time your entry. You can do this on the same timeframe, or lower timeframes (in order to tighten up your entry price and reduce the gap between that and a reasonable stop loss placement). As previously noted, I prefer 15M for entries, although you can time your entries on any chart.

Conformation for SHORT is preferably a no demand bar - low volume (compared to the last few bars) up bar. This bar indicates that the Smart Money is not interested in higher prices. Price moved up, but there was no supporting volume interested in that price rise. This is the ideal time to enter, because it's very unlikely prices will move much higher (although it does happen - which is why you should place your stop loss above the last upthrust if there is one prior to the no demand) and you get a better entry price before the effort to fall. If you see instead of a no demand bar, a wide spread up bar with above average volume (say an effort to rise), then the background has changed - and so should your bias.

There are a number of possibilities near the top - you might see a pattern of upthrusts, no demand, before a fall, or up moves on reasonable volume, indicating the up move has not exhausted itself. These can stop you out.

As Malcolm and others have said, you also need to consider whether your bias (short in this case) is counter trend - which could mean a shortened profit target, or if there is resistance in close proximity to where price might fall - as price could hit this area, encounter resistance and bounce. (If it does you will most likely see stopping volume or shakeout bars at this level of resistance, indicating strength. Your bias would then become long, and you would look for long confirmation bars. This is especially true in an uptrend where you are looking to buy the dips.)

Confirmation to enter LONG when you have established strength in the background are testing bars. No supply, test of supply, hidden tests or (rarely) a shakeout. These are low volume, narrow (to maybe average) spread down bars preferably closing in the upper third of the bar. This is where the Smart Money has rapidly marked down prices to see if there is still interest in selling. If the volume is too high, or spread too wide, then it is a failed test and there is still interest from the broader market in lower prices. The Smart Money generally won't risk marking up prices after a failed test because selling into their rally will prevent the mark up and they would lose their expected profits. In this case, they will probably attempt more testing, until they do get a successful test - which is when you should enter long. Note that tests can fail - or effort to rise can fail - and if they do fail on high volume then this means you may need to reconsider the background and your bias long. Also as noted above - if the broader trend is down, you may see strength (say stopping volume) find a good entry, (say successful test of supply) but the move up encounters resistance (perhaps at a recent days' POC) where you then see an upthrust and no demand. This is a bounce off a previous area of resistance, and is a good point to sell the rally as you are in a downtrend.)

In summary - ideal entry short is after a no demand bar (a narrow spread, low volume up bar), ideal entry long is after a successful test of supply (narrow spread low volume down bar). But you need to consider the background (is your bias short or long based on weakness or strength in the background) and the whether the market is trending (up or down) or ranging in order to establish your actual trade strategy.

The Hull MA (or HG's Dynamic Balance Line) indicates the trend and helps prevent you entering too early (to avoid those cases where price continues to move up under momentum after an upthrust, or down after a stopping volume) . You want to see it change (to indicate the trend has changed) from up to down if your bias is short - ideally with no demand just under the Hull MA after it has turned down, or from down to up if your bias is long, with the no supply bar just above the Hull MA after it has turned up.

Hope that helps

f451