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vsa with Malcolm

  • #901
  • Jul 4, 2010 6:43pm Jul 4, 2010 6:43pm
Quoting malcolmb14
yup i just entered a sell trade aj ...for a quick 50

came right off the lower value area of Friday

and they way they killed es last 15 min of market Friday and the lower high on the 30 min I am fairly bearish aj

Attachment
Very nice.

Good way to start the week.
  • #902
  • Edited 6:57pm Jul 4, 2010 6:45pm | Edited 6:57pm
Quoting Intel
Quality 'EDIT' HG.

Accurately predicting moves is a very different skill set to VSA and, it requires a huge amount of experience and knowledge IMO.

We have a VERY GENERAL rule about the length of time taken to distribute/accumulate being proportional to the size of move. But this is not an accurate prediction.

It is far better to trade what you see and don't second guess the market.
I still have no idea how long accumulation or distribution is going to last. I can see it happening, and I can see it ending when we get testing then effort to rise, or no demand then effort to fall, but estimating how it'll last once accumulation or distribution starts... needs way more experience than I have.

Plus i suspect that SM works on several timeframes - one group milking 200 pip moves intra-week, another 500-800 pip moves intra-month and so on - so their accumulation and distribution phases have different lengths and volumes
  • #903
  • Jul 4, 2010 7:06pm Jul 4, 2010 7:06pm
Quoting Intel
Very nice.

Good way to start the week.

do not typically trade on Sundays till Tokyo gets rocking but more often than not I have seen tests of Fridays lows / highs tested / just spiked beneath in very early trading. This is exactly what happened today.

73.60 being fridays low , spike down to 73.40 , selling cliamx 15 min , now looking for me a retest of lower value area friday
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #904
  • Jul 4, 2010 7:30pm Jul 4, 2010 7:30pm
Quoting malcolmb14
do not typically trade on Sundays till Tokyo gets rocking but more often than not I have seen tests of Fridays lows / highs tested / just spiked beneath in very early trading. This is exactly what happened today.

73.60 being fridays low , spike down to 73.40 , selling cliamx 15 min , now looking for me a retest of lower value area friday
thanx a lot for your comments ....
  • #905
  • Jul 4, 2010 8:36pm Jul 4, 2010 8:36pm
trade playing out..... climatic action seen on 10 min chart just under fridays close on a shake out pre tokyo , price now at the 74.20 channel line , break out of this we see move back into 74.70 area.

74.30 is a prior resistance on the charts from last week so will ne looking for any sign of no demands etc in this are to close long trade

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aj.jpg Size: 157 KB






Quoting malcolmb14
so this week we have vsa and demark

30 min aj chart ...

green line breaks to the downside red channel holds. ... we look for no demand up moves on a 5 min chart , with the red down channel holding target support 72.60

73.60 holds we looks for tests on down moves , stopping vol etc for move back to 74.20 , then break of this top of green channel 74.7 to 74.90

ALL DEMARK IS BEING USED FOR HERE IS AUTO TREND CHANNELS ... CONFIRMED WITH VSA ENTRIES AND HULLS..

Attachment



Attachment
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  • #906
  • Jul 4, 2010 8:58pm Jul 4, 2010 8:58pm
Quoting malcolmb14
trade playing out..... climatic action seen on 10 min chart just under fridays close on a shake out pre tokyo , price now at the 74.20 channel line , break out of this we see move back into 74.70 area.

74.30 is a prior resistance on the charts from last week so will ne looking for any sign of no demands etc in this are to close long trade

Attachment
sure enough trialing stop to tight stopped out on this reversal after effort to rise , right around prior resistance area

not taking sells right now as the hulls on the 10 min is still up ... although there may be weakness in this area

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aj.jpg Size: 157 KB
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  • #907
  • Jul 5, 2010 12:39am Jul 5, 2010 12:39am
Quoting malcolmb14
this is not really what vsa is about. If ej is to hit 112 form 112.35 it will happen quickly. Look for any up moves to have no demand bars on a 5 min or upthrust , enter your trade , 25 pip stops , take profit within 30 min

sounds like you want to enter a trade , walk away for 2 days and hope market hits the mark
It doesn't affect the point you're making, but I think you may have misread price. EJ is at 110-odd not above 112.
  • #908
  • Jul 5, 2010 1:14am Jul 5, 2010 1:14am
hi fellow traders,
got stopped out on 2 shorts today on the EU, DAILY and 4hrly seems to show weakness so i have the short perspective, but on 5 min n 15min i kp getting stopped out despite seeing signs to enter.

please enlighten me...i see the effort to rise but seems likes they are always stuck so i decided its time to short when i see an upthrust and a no demand bar.

please correct me, thank u so much, appreciate your help.

Bethel
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  • #909
  • Jul 5, 2010 1:24am Jul 5, 2010 1:24am
Quoting Bethel
hi fellow traders,
got stopped out on 2 shorts today on the EU, DAILY and 4hrly seems to show weakness so i have the short perspective, but on 5 min n 15min i kp getting stopped out despite seeing signs to enter.

please enlighten me...i see the effort to rise but seems likes they are always stuck so i decided its time to short when i see an upthrust and a no demand bar.

please correct me, thank u so much, appreciate your help.

Bethel
if you're trying to short on M5, you still need to see the hull MA turn red to make sure you are trading with the trend (even if it's the M5 trend). In your chart above the hull MA is sort of ranging - not trending.

Personally I wouldn't be looking for effort to rise bars on M5, for me effort to rise or fall might be a single bar on 1HR timeframe or several bars on 1HR. At M5 signs of weakness in the background would be a series of effort to rise bars or an uptrend. I believe that HG and others would argue you can read VSA on anytime frame, but I think M5 is too short to establish background. I'd advise you to read your background on 1HR or higher tfs and time entries on 15M or 30M.
  • #910
  • Jul 5, 2010 2:00am Jul 5, 2010 2:00am
That chart is EJ, not EU for a start. If you are looking at EU, it's been trading in a narrow range for about five hours with no clear sign of which way it's likely to break that I can see.
  • #911
  • Jul 5, 2010 2:04am Jul 5, 2010 2:04am
There's no clear direction on EJ either for that matter. It's trending slightly up if anything.
  • #912
  • Jul 5, 2010 2:23am Jul 5, 2010 2:23am
Quoting Ronlizard
There's no clear direction on EJ either for that matter. It's trending slightly up if anything.
check 4 hr i doubt ej will even make it past 110.75

Liekly have this sideways market till Tuesday us session then eu major reversal to downside taking ej down into 108 area
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  • #913
  • Jul 5, 2010 2:38am Jul 5, 2010 2:38am
You're very likely right. Logic would dictate we're likely to see at least a retrace of the move up on the euro. I was just making the point that at the moment there isn't any short term direction.
  • #914
  • Jul 5, 2010 2:41am Jul 5, 2010 2:41am
Quoting Ronlizard
You're very likely right. Logic would dictate we're likely to see at least a retrace of the move up on the euro. I was just making the point that at the moment there isn't any short term direction.

based on 30 min ej and the ut that happened right at end of shallow bear flag in asia I think short term trend ej is down .... 109.80 then 109.60
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  • #915
  • Jul 5, 2010 2:55am Jul 5, 2010 2:55am
Hi Malcolm,

Attached is a 15M Cable chart from a platform on demo right now,
I am using, it is Currenex for FX and openecry for futures from one broker.

As I am trying to learn VSA and / or "big order flow" I found this chart option particularly interesting and useful to this style of trading.

From my observations the bars are wide on big volume and growing / contracting
afterwards.

The top and bottom squares are the same as wicks on candles.

Just thought you may find it interesting.
Great thread!
XTrade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: PathFndr_GBP_Volume.GIF Size: 202 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #916
  • Jul 5, 2010 3:10am Jul 5, 2010 3:10am
I have read the page and I wish to not be disruptive to the thread,

But I would like to offer up my analysis from the chart I posted,

For GBP/USD

Volume will stay somewhat thin until NY signs on, on Tuesday.
The pair is bullish on medium term and we had a 250 pip bounce after dipping below the LTL last friday.

Thus, some retracement may be due, However from the low volume and PA symmetrical triangle forming I will remain neutral bias on this pair until a decisive break comes upon us.
I will potentially look to sell below 5150 and buy above 5200 depending on the PA. Yet may not take any live trade until Tuesday.

Please let me know what you think.
X
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #917
  • Edited 3:46am Jul 5, 2010 3:11am | Edited 3:46am
Thanks Malcolmb for reply in post #885. , oh i am alr started to read the MTM, but u know the forum is more interactive, so i actually tend read more FF posts then the MTM. i know thats not the right way to start for newbies, but im just too eager to participate even i havnt finish reading all the basic MTM stuff first, but i think im not the only one :X

Quoting tfflyer
...Tom Williams, if he trade GBP/USD 3 min, for him 10 bars is enough for decision about bacground. This is what he said in one of the web seminars..)
btw, i personally don't think its quite possible for traders to decide on a trade with just 10 bars, all the time... looking back at all the explanations/charts from HG and Malcolmb, what Tom william said about the 10 bars doesnt sound very convincing.. if it's true then there would ONLY be 10 bars that we need to memorise in order to be successful... but most of us are still struggling, so that makes us seem quite dumb if what Tom William said is totally true. haha

Quoting tfflyer
I will not go deaper in this, i just told You what is doing Tom WIlliams - And that it
Quoting XTrade
Maybe this can help - this is 120 minute (2 hour) and should be 250 bars) Cable now...
yep i know... im just thinking that perhaps the 10 bar strategy doesnt work for ALL circumstances, maybe just some ...
  • #918
  • Edited 3:37am Jul 5, 2010 3:22am | Edited 3:37am
Maybe this can help - this is 120 minute (2 hour) and should be 250 bars)
Cable now.

My trade is sell and on a demo for this platform. (*similar live trade with parameters aforementioned)
I am looking to take profit on potential support and I have a stop above the last LARGE volume bar.

This is counter trend. For my bias.

Quoting mud3210
Thanks Malcolmb for reply in post #885. ,
btw, i personally don't think its quite possible for traders to decide on a trade with just 10 bars, all the time... looking back at all the explanations/charts from HG and Malcolmb, what Tom william said about the 10 bars doesnt sound very convincing.. if it's true then there would ONLY be 10 bars that we need to memorise in order to be successful... but most of us are still struggling, so that makes us seem quite dumb if what Tom William said is totally true. haha
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CABLE_120_min_July5.GIF Size: 70 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #919
  • Jul 5, 2010 3:32am Jul 5, 2010 3:32am
I will not go deaper in this, i just told You what is doing Tom WIlliams - And that it

Best,
Tom


Quoting mud3210
Thanks Malcolmb for reply in post #885. , oh i am alr started to read the MTM, but u know the forum is more interactive, so i actually tend read more FF posts then the MTM. i know thats not the right way to start for newbies, but im just too eager to participate even i havnt finish reading all the basic MTM stuff first, but i think im not the only one :X



btw, i personally don't think its quite possible for traders to decide on a trade with just 10 bars, all the time... looking back at all the explanations/charts from HG and Malcolmb, what...
  • #920
  • Jul 5, 2010 3:42am Jul 5, 2010 3:42am
all depends what time frame you trade

taking long aj here 74 based on 5 x 5 min bars , tp 25 pip

Quoting mud3210
Thanks Malcolmb for reply in post #885. , oh i am alr started to read the MTM, but u know the forum is more interactive, so i actually tend read more FF posts then the MTM. i know thats not the right way to start for newbies, but im just too eager to participate even i havnt finish reading all the basic MTM stuff first, but i think im not the only one :X



btw, i personally don't think its quite possible for traders to decide on a trade with just 10 bars, all the time... looking back at all the explanations/charts from HG and Malcolmb, what...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
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