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  • #12,841
  • Jul 1, 2010 6:58pm Jul 1, 2010 6:58pm
Quoting strat
Your questions are typical of one who has 'flash read' the thread. ALL the answers to your questions are there but you MUST read and UNDERSTAND each and every post.

There is no race in trading - the markets will ALWAYS be there so TAKE YOUR TIME and study carefully by reading and UNDERSTANDING each and every post.
Strat:

Thanks for pointing out this. I will stick to this method and lurk another few weeks to read through it carefully. I know the holy grail is in your thread, but impatience made it hard for me to get to my goal... I will try to get that.

Regards,
Yang
  • #12,842
  • Jul 2, 2010 9:34am Jul 2, 2010 9:34am
Quoting No1Optimist
Greetings Strat and welcome back. It has been very quiet on the thread during your absence....
My question is, have you changed your mind about concentrating on closes when plotting SR lines?

No. The close is the most important PRICE on a candle/bar. We can identify SR from a line chart which would therefore use the close. We can also identify SR from a candlestick/bar chart using either the close or candle/bar extreme.

In each case, it is an energy level (energy of buyers and sellers) which is not finite and instead is like the force exerted by magnets - the closer you get to the energy (magnet), the stronger the force.

I promoted using the close on the line chart as it is easier to identify for beginners. As you become more accomplished and confident with PASR, you will be able to identify SR just by eyeballing any chart.

Whichever, method you choose, you must remember it is not a finite level and PRICE can bounce and react before and after your chosen level.

Learn the basic method first (SR by close) until you are consistently profitable and then try and SEE BEYOND THE CANDLES.

Hope this helps.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,843
  • Jul 2, 2010 9:46am Jul 2, 2010 9:46am
Quoting syyzxsyf
Strat:

Thanks for pointing out this. I will stick to this method and lurk another few weeks to read through it carefully. I know the holy grail is in your thread, but impatience made it hard for me to get to my goal... I will try to get that.

Regards,
Yang
Unknowingly you have identified YOURS and OURS biggest weakness - PATIENCE & DISCIPLINE.

We can be the most technically proficient and the best technical analyst out there but if we have no PATIENCE or DISCIPLINE we will only be as good as a lighthouse in the Sahara Desert!

PATIENCE & DISCIPLINE are both part of trading psychology which accounts for 95% of our success as profitable traders.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,844
  • Edited 4:33pm Jul 2, 2010 3:08pm | Edited 4:33pm
Started Reading your posts recently. Find this very interesting learning. Thanks. Please let me know what you think about these levels . Started on weekly IS the Daily. Thanks in advance. I plan to extend the RAYS in the future.
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  • #12,845
  • Jul 3, 2010 4:56am Jul 3, 2010 4:56am
Hey Strat,
Welcome back! Glad you had fun on your holidays, we missed you on here.
There has been a lot of action while you were away and I even caught some of it.

Thanks for all your guidance. My trading would not be where it is today if it weren't for this thread. Still a way to go before I clear out all my confidence demons so that I can trade my retirement fund but I know I'll get there in the next few years.

Cheers.

John
Finally out of the shadows.
  • #12,846
  • Jul 3, 2010 4:05pm Jul 3, 2010 4:05pm
USDJPY
Big Boss is down at 87 support for a 3rd time. Will it hold? If not a visit to 84 may be on the cards.
Boss down at same support
Worker bouncing off support showing there are a few buyers down there. Any move up is counter trend and likely to stall at 89

USDCHF
Big Boss is down at 1.05 support for it’s 3rd time. Could be readying for a move to 0.99
Boss down but reacting off support
Worker making a weak attempt at recovery but 1.05 is on the cards and maybe 0.99

GBPUSD
Big Boss fighting strong downtrend and looks like it wants to make a run at 1.55
Boss in full support of Big Boss
Worker – any retrace with PA would be a good place to buy up to 1.55

EURUSD
Big Boss still in it’s overall uptrend but currently fighting the intermediate downtrend. If it gets past 1.27/1.28, look for 1.34 and if it clears that, the root down TL is next.
Boss is following orders
Worker – any retrace with PA would be a good place to buy up to 1.27/28

EURGBP
Big Boss at 0.8120 support and 50% fib in its uptrend
Boss bouncing off support but with little buying strength
Worker suggests she has run out of steam

Cannot SEE anything else especially JPY pairs – too much in fighting between Big Boss, Boss and Worker – need to get in harmony
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,847
  • Jul 3, 2010 4:13pm Jul 3, 2010 4:13pm
Happy Independence Day to our American friends and Happy Thanksgiving to the Brits (July 4th is where the Brits give thanks that someone finally took this lump of land off our hands although if you listen to John Cleese he thinks we should have kept it as we would not have made such a mess of it!).

Anyway, go easy on the Butwiper and burgers.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,848
  • Jul 4, 2010 1:10am Jul 4, 2010 1:10am
Hi strat
Just wanted to say hell and thanks for the thread.
I have been trading for a few years now and have learnt the hard way. Started with the short term scalping techniques that always lost money in the long term and screwed my mind so much that I could have done a Jesse Livermore!
Finally found over time and after blowing accounts that the techniques you use are the way to go, and it does feel like a light bulb just goes on when you get there.
My problem has alway been the management of the trade when im up around 200 pips or so, those demons come in and I always do the wrong thing.
Anyway as you say to be a trader is to always learn and I am making my way through your thread. Really enjoying it and the fact that I have only just discovered this forum. (I always thought forums were a waste of time) I couldnt have been more wrong than if I thought the euro was a strong currency!!
Speak soon
PS I want to learn the guitar now too. My wife will kill me ......
Cheers
Alex
  • #12,849
  • Jul 4, 2010 2:36am Jul 4, 2010 2:36am
Quoting strat
Happy Independence Day to our American friends and Happy Thanksgiving to the Brits (July 4th is where the Brits give thanks that someone finally took this lump of land off our hands although if you listen to John Cleese he thinks we should have kept it as we would not have made such a mess of it!).

Anyway, go easy on the Butwiper and burgers.
I am with John Cleese, most of the old commomwealth countries would have been better off staying with us! ( For an old geezer like him, Cleese has got good taste in women but no commen sense as he keeps marrying them. A very expensive pastime just like beinging a poor trader)

Good to see you back.
  • #12,850
  • Jul 4, 2010 3:13am Jul 4, 2010 3:13am
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Quoting strat
Beautiful PASR again and again and again and ...........................
Am I missing something my charts rarely look the same as others!
Moved charting to FXPro, a load of work, and still in the dark!
  • #12,851
  • Edited 4:37am Jul 4, 2010 3:56am | Edited 4:37am
Quoting strat
USDJPY
Big Boss is down at 87 support for a 3rd time. Will it hold? If not a visit to 84 may be on the cards.
Boss down at same support
Worker bouncing off support showing there are a few buyers down there. Any move up is counter trend and likely to stall at 89

USDCHF
Big Boss is down at 1.05 support for it’s 3rd time. Could be readying for a move to 0.99
Boss down but reacting off support
[font=Arial]Worker...
Strat,

Another one worth watching is the GBPAUD.

It'll be interesting to SEE what PA does at 1.82

I'll let my charts do the talking for me though.

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  • #12,852
  • Edited 5:31am Jul 4, 2010 5:24am | Edited 5:31am
Just want to point out that from the low of 11875 on 7/6 to the high of 12610 last Friday makes about 700 pips. Whereas on USDCHF from the high of 11673 to the low of 10585 makes it about 1100 pips. If corelation on average is 90% then the expected move in EURUSD should be about 1150 pips therefore I think there is gap of about 400-500 pips upwards in EU which is more likely as it has made HL & HH last week as compared to UC that has made LH.

It is just my opinion.
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  • #12,853
  • Jul 4, 2010 6:03am Jul 4, 2010 6:03am
Quoting simpleman
Just want to point out that from the low of 11875 on 7/6 to the high of 12610 last Friday makes about 700 pips. Whereas on USDCHF from the high of 11673 to the low of 10585 makes it about 1100 pips. If corelation on average is 90% then the expected move in EURUSD should be about 1150 pips therefore I think there is gap of about 400-500 pips upwards in EU which is more likely as it has made HL & HH last week as compared to UC that has made LH.

It is just my opinion.
My problem with the EUR and USD is they are both fundamentally weak atm and are fighting to hit bottom first.

I just can't bring myself to buy either the Eur or the USD.

The Eur may well appreciate but the results of the EZ bank stress tests are due soon and if they are bad or disbelieved the Eur could really drop.

That may be why the Swissie has made a bigger move.
  • #12,854
  • Jul 4, 2010 6:29am Jul 4, 2010 6:29am
Quoting stewrigh
That may be why the Swissie has made a bigger move.
I think the reason for Swissie move was SNB's announcement for not interferring in the markets. But we will see how it goes. May be we will see new normal in correlation to these two pairs.
  • #12,855
  • Jul 4, 2010 7:07am Jul 4, 2010 7:07am
Quoting stgeorge
Attachment

Am I missing something my charts rarely look the same as others!
Moved charting to FXPro, a load of work, and still in the dark!
Looks like my chart so can't SEE anything wrong with it. Maybe the problem is the person looking at it?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,856
  • Jul 4, 2010 7:10am Jul 4, 2010 7:10am
Quoting stewrigh
Strat,

Another one worth watching is the GBPAUD.

It'll be interesting to SEE what PA does at 1.82

I'll let my charts do the talking for me though.

Attachment

Attachment

Attachment
Agree, a HL will do the trick for me.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,857
  • Jul 4, 2010 7:21am Jul 4, 2010 7:21am
Quoting Alexptrader
Hi strat
Just wanted to say hell and thanks for the thread.
I have been trading for a few years now and have learnt the hard way. Started with the short term scalping techniques that always lost money in the long term and screwed my mind so much that I could have done a Jesse Livermore!
Finally found over time and after blowing accounts that the techniques you use are the way to go, and it does feel like a light bulb just goes on when you get there.
My problem has alway been the management of the trade when im up around 200 pips or so, those demons...
My problem has always been the management of the trade when I'm up around 200 pips or so.............

And you think this is a problem? If you are not blowing smoke up my arse the solution is SIMPLE - take profit at 200 pips, increase your stake, then rinse and repeat until you have all the money you could ever want. But there again, if you were clever enough to make 200 pips or so, you should know this.

So, pray tell us how you are consistently making around 200 pips or so.

PS I want to learn the guitar now too. My wife will kill me.................

Same SIMPLE solution - kill the wife first!

You are not really as smart as you are trying to portray are you?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,858
  • Jul 4, 2010 7:26am Jul 4, 2010 7:26am
Quoting simpleman
Just want to point out that from the low of 11875 on 7/6 to the high of 12610 last Friday makes about 700 pips. Whereas on USDCHF from the high of 11673 to the low of 10585 makes it about 1100 pips. If corelation on average is 90% then the expected move in EURUSD should be about 1150 pips therefore I think there is gap of about 400-500 pips upwards in EU which is more likely as it has made HL & HH last week as compared to UC that has made LH.

It is just my opinion.
This is ONLY true when the two are 98% correlated which they are not all the time. One moves without the other following many a time. I have not and would not use anything like this as a reason for a trade.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,859
  • Jul 4, 2010 7:29am Jul 4, 2010 7:29am
Quoting simpleman
I think the reason for Swissie move was SNB's announcement for not interferring in the markets. But we will see how it goes. May be we will see new normal in correlation to these two pairs.
If you believe this I would like to sell you some Ocean front property in Arizona for a reduced price of $3 million!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,860
  • Jul 4, 2010 8:24am Jul 4, 2010 8:24am
Quoting strat
Agree, a HL will do the trick for me.

Ain't trading great - I'm looking for a rejection around 82 lol, but then I think I mentioned I don't trade Strat style.
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