Josh's Trades

1S - This is more of a trade I've been taking, but not a great one. Entry was at BB extreme, as entry wasn't on a pullback but rather a breakout.

2S - Nice trade. Break of TL and pullback. Off midBB/EMA.

3S - CT trade but the bar was in consolidation and wasn't at BB extreme (was at double top).

4L - Great trade. With trend, pullback to midBB/EMA. Large bar. Off support.

5S - Great trade. Pullback with new trend. off PPZ, midBB/EMA/1.4750.

Results didn't reflect the trades today. Something to think about is whether we should have a lower low prior to entering a with-trend trade. This would give us some confirmation that we are indeed starting a new trend in the opposite direction.

I pointed out a few other bars highlighted in yellow. These are bars I considered but didn't take for one reason or another (No DIV, riding rails, no ema/midBB touch, etc). In today's case, they seemed to work out pretty well though!

Loss of 2.88R.

Just two today.
1L - There were two bullish bars prior to this entry. I looked to enter on the first, but it was too strong of a bar (I would have entered on the high of the day.) I missed the second one, but would have probably taken it. 1L was not a great trade because price had already penetrated the midBB so many times. Therefore it wasn't a rejection of the line and so we couldn't expect a very strong move. Also see this post. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3239


2L - Again, I passed on the pinbar 10 minutes earlier because of the bearish close. Took this one as it offered more momentum. A much better setup but it just failed. 1.2350 was last week's high, so maybe that resistance 5 pips away was the show stopper? Not one to be upset over, as it was a good setup from what I can see.

Loss of 1.83R today.

I am baffled by the change in results in the last three weeks. Frustrating that I thought I was on to something and was past these failure feelings. But I have hope. I have faith. I have some self-confidence. And I definitely have the drive and passion to be profitable. Way too many people need the money I make for me to give up now.

I'm going to try to continue simplifying as I'm able and so will only watch the E/U 5min chart. I'll study Ryan's charts and see how his trades are different from what I've been taking. I'll continue listening and learning from Tony Robbins' material. I'm backtesting to work on my discipline, patience, and trade selection quality. I'm starting to find little things that might make a difference in the quality of setups I take:

- Make sure price has just made a new recent extreme and we are pulling back to the EMA/BB for with-trend trades.

- Monitor the separation between EMA and midBB. If they are not close together, then price might be consolidating or reversing. Bars that sit between the two lines seem to provide a much smaller (if any) edge. (see 1L today). (thanks MikeW for that post BTW)

- Be careful about how far price penetrates (and number of times) the EMA/BB. If it penetrates too far or too many times (too many bars), then it isn't as strong a trend and I should be careful to enter.

- For CT trades, wait for BB to begin to flatten out. The probability just isn't very good when trading against a strong downward pointing BB/EMA.

The promising part of the last few days is how many so-so bars I'm passing on. Still overtrading, but taking much fewer setups and the results are not as poor.

A list I found in an old email...

Health
1. Drink plenty of water.
2. Eat breakfast like a king, lunch like a prince and dinner like a beggar.
3. Eat more foods that grow on trees and plants and eat less food that is manufactured in plants..
4. Live with the 3 E's -- Energy, Enthusiasm and Empathy
5. Make time to pray.
6. Play more games
7. Read more books than you did in 2009 .
8. Sit in silence for at least 10 minutes each day
9. Sleep for 7 hours.
10. Take a 10-30 minutes walk daily. And while you walk, smile.

Personalility
1. Don't compare your life to others. You have no idea what their journey is all about.
2. Don't have negative thoughts or things you cannot control. Instead invest your energy in the positive
present moment.
3. Don't over do. Keep your limits.
4. Don't take yourself so seriously. No one else does.
5. Don't waste your precious energy on gossip.
6. Dream more while you are awake
7. Envy is a waste of time.. You already have all you need..
8. Forget issues of the past. Don't remind your partner with His/her mistakes of the past. That will ruin
your present happiness..
9. Life is too short to waste time hating anyone.. Don't hate others..
10. Make peace with your past so it won't spoil the present.
11. No one is in charge of your happiness except you.
12. Realize that life is a school and you are here to learn. Problems are simply part of the curriculum that appear and fade away like algebra class but the lessons you learn will last a lifetime.
13.. Smile and laugh more.
14. You don't have to win every argument. Agree to disagree...

Society
1. Call your family often.
2. Each day give something good to others.
3. Forgive everyone for everything..
4. Spend time w/ people over the age of 70 & under the age of 6.
5. Try to make at least three people smile each day.
6. What other people think of you is none of your business.
7. Your job won't take care of you when you are sick. Your friends will. Stay in touch.

Life
1. Do the right thing!
2. Get rid of anything that isn't useful, beautiful or joyful.
3. GOD heals everything.
4. However good or bad a situation is, it will change..
5. No matter how you feel, get up, dress up and show up.
6. The best is yet to come..
7. When you awake alive in the morning, thank GOD for it.
8. Your Inner most is always happy. So, be happy.

Wanted to point out something I found today reading Ryan's posts. He mentioned that we don't necessarily have to enter at the first sign of DIV. Instead wait for price to give a higher quality setup.

I actually took all three entries, but will be watching for better confirmations when trading CT now.

Three trades today.
First was on the 15min and was a nice pullback to the midBB. But I exited this and reversed (2S) after the 5min close showed a bearish continuation. I now realize this was actually still in a sideways pattern. I need to do more testing to see about this setup - What happens when the entry is pretty close to the last swing extreme (in this case, my entry was near the swing low).

3S - was a nice CT move off 1.24 after testing it once already. Moved to b/e at 0.5R and was stopped out. Would have reached 1R just now.

I'm taking the rest of the day and week off to work on my mind. I'm having lots of doubts, despair, and frustration this month and surely it is causing these results. I'm closing trades early and not trusting myself. Expecting every trade to be a loser.

So I'll be going through some bible studies, watching the Secret, Tony Robbins, etc.

Enjoy your week and weekend guys and gals!

Josh

Two trades 10 minutes apart off S turned R.
First stopped out.
Second moved to b/e at prior highs. Stopped out at b/e.

Thanks for sharing Josh!

Three trades today.
All were pretty good setups, though the last one ran a bit through the midBB for my liking.
Stopped out on first. 2R on second. I cut the third one at b/e.

Just a comment or two

I think you are driving yourself nuts with that spreadsheet. It is OK to log your trades, but the idea of marking the Max extent of the run - why are you doing that? Looks like you are dreaming of sugar plum fairies to me. Why not simply print the damn chart and mark it where you got in and out. Review them for the purpose of examining the trade itself, not flippin' money you did or did not make. You'll never win until you get the money out of your head.

I don't mean to be mean, just an observation. If you have solid trade management skills, that you believe in, and trust, you'll get out *exactly* when you *should*.

Reading your stuff reminds me of the man written about at James 1:6-8. (Applied to trading) Your psychology is completely hosed and it is not letting you succeed. Fix that.

Thank you for your post Mike. You make several good points. I keep the maxR column to give me an idea of whether I exit trades too early or not. Of course, it takes hundreds if not thousands of trade data in order to feel comfortable changing the exit strategy. So those columns are simply data collection nowadays. It's interesting that you ask if I use it to determine how much I made or didn't make though. That isn't something I have thought much about because my trade size is so small. I tend to measure everything in Rs. But imo, it's the same concept.

To make sure I'm understanding you correctly, and to summarize what I'm finding as I step back recently to 'fix' this stuff:

Instead of focusing on the result of the trade (measured in $, R, pips, etc), I should simply focus on 1) quality of setup at time of entry and 2) management. I'm trying to get back to an almost full mechanical management, as that fits my personality better than this 'active' micro management debacle that I got into. Therefore, 2) changes to 'following my management rules.'

I'm pretty sure you've been following the thread for a while, and so know that I know my psychology is hosed And yes, I am 'working' on that, whatever 'working' entails.

Great passage. One mustn't forget verses 2-5, 12 though (also applied to trading trials).

Several of you have posted or PMed me with encouragement, support, and advice/suggestions amid my streak in recent weeks. Thank you so much to all of you. I know my emotions are the toughest part about this business. I also know that I"m the only one that can work through the issues and move beyond them. Finally, I know that as long as I keep on keepin' on, I'm successful, and will become consistently profitable on a full account (the ultimate goal). It's really a great, comforting feeling to know that many of you guys who have already gone through this are watching and chiming with gentle suggestions. Like a trading family. Thank you.

Just a quick update: things have been going much better for me the last several days. I'm trusting myself to take good trades and I'm not feeling tied emotionally to the trade (my biggest issue in recent weeks). One trade does not make or break my account, attitude, value as a person.

Josh

Try a 2R target. Simple, easy and mechanical. You already know what price will do when you get in - what ever it wants to. You know this already. I have a simplistic breakout system that works great on the 4 hour and I found 2R to be the best target by far. I don't bother even keeping track any more. (It is crazy brain dead in the approach)


Why just not trade price as it is presented? There really isn't any magic. Setups are fine, but consider this - what if a trend presents itself and your setups are not part of it anywhere in it? That really sucks. Hundreds of pips go by and you cannot grab some for lack of a setup. Don't get me wrong, setups are fine, but looking for a setup and trading price are not quite the same thing, are they?


I have not followed it. Just read it all yesterday.

Finding what works in the market is not hard. There are a million ways to skin that cat. Some are better than others. The challenge is 100% between your (everyone's) ears. Flip a coin. With proper MM you'll likely make money. (not a recommended approach, but a simple way to see if you understand MM)

Consider what happens when you spot a great trade to get in on. You jump in - it gets picked up, and price begins to retrace. All of a sudden the trade looks like garbage - no? Well, what happened? Is the trade actually bad, or has your thinking changed? Of course you may take stupid trades, but that is not what I am talking about. I see multiple trades in your journal where you got out at BE or a loss of some magnitude and eventually price went many R multiples in your favor... Your brain was hosed.

That is not a system problem, it is a systemic problem with the man at the controls.


I'll only say this one thing on that topic - God does not care one bit if you make money at trading or not. This is nothing more than a completely transparent attempt to place blame and responsibility on someone other than yourself. You've been given a brain, use it and stop thinking that something mystical is going to happen to you on your road to Damascus. You'll be much more focused and responsible when you do this. (Your wife will detect a big change in you too - and love it)


Based on a few conversations I've had with long term traders, this emotional aspect will always present itself to you for the rest of your life.

Trading is an excellent mirror of who we are. Based on this, why do you think you beat yourself silly all the time? My recommendation - find someone who can help you to figure out who you are and learn how to deal with it. Heck - I'd recommend that to anyone. Ultimately you have to made the adjustments, but even Paul had Ananias and the Eunuch had Phillip.

.

http://www.wimp.com/hopemessage/

2 B/e today.

Got a bit impatient today anticipating a breakout. Have a great weekend guys/gals.

1 trade. B/E.

I read The Secrets to Emotional - Free Trading recently... "I really think that is one of the biggest problems with traders. They beat themselves up so much for their mistakes it's a wonder that most don't have bumps and bruises after each trading day. You must take it easy on yourself. Most people are harsher no themselves than they would be on their worst enemy. All this leads to is poor trading results.
"Remember, the more you get upset with yourself for your past mistakes, the more you'll relive those mistakes and they'll show up in your trading results. The old saying about forgiving yourself (for your mistakes) and moving on is as important in learning to trade as anywhere." - Larry Levin, pg 23.

2 trades today, both in g/u.

1 trade today (g/u). Missed a great one in e/u, but such is life. As my wife reminded me, "You're going to miss a lot of great setups once we have this baby!" I suppose she's right.

It's funny how my brain is much better at processing and distinguishing a good short setup from a good long setup. I just passed on this g/u bar that basically met my criteria (though I wish the ema was on the opposite side of the bb).

I saved the chart normally in first one. Then flipped it over to show the equivalent as a short... perfect setup. Ah. Just takes practice.

Nothing else fit my criteria today.

wow, congratulations Josh!
if u are a super hands-on dad like me (i now got a 2y.o. boy), u'll indeed reduce your chart/trading time.

LOL.
i think it's natural: think of gravity.
hahah. nice idea.

Two trades today. First was a bit forced. A great bar, and on a breakout, but we weren't in a trend, so it was tough to expect it to have much momentum.

Much better self-image this week, which led to much better composure and much better results. Feeling like I'm getting my 'edge' back and it feels good.

Have a safe and fun 4th of July all.