Trend Trading With Support and Resistance

TRADE 7 stopped out for a -80 including spread

All of the trades below were posted live ,please refer to the previous posts for trade details.


TOTAL SO FAR +18


TRADE 1 -40
TRADE 2 +29
TRADE 3 -4
TRADE 4 +81
TRADE 5 + 25
TRADE 6 +6
TRADE 7 -80


i am trading 6 pairs , EURUSD,USDJPY,USDCHF,EURJPY,GBPJPY,GBPUSD with signals from two combinations of trading timeframes D1-4H-1H and 4H-1H-15M unfortunately i have not been able to take every trade on every pair across the two trading timeframes and i hit the bottom of the trend on the last trade with a short impulse wave that made a new low but the method is holding up well and overall with trades ive missed its well into profit but of course that means nothing without posting the trades live so lets see what the next three trades bring.

nicholas

USDJPY

SHORT 87.873
STOP ABOVE 88.092
TARGET OPEN


nicholas

PROVISIONAL SET UPS - NOT ACTIVATED

EURUSD

LONG ABOVE 1.25312
STOP BELOW 1.24885
TARGET OPEN

EURJPY (order cancelled as the 123 entry is invalidated for the moment)

LONG ABOVE 110.292
STOP BELOW 109.753
TARGET OPEN

nicholas

LIVE TRADE 8 - OPEN (+30 at the moment)


USDJPY

SHORT 87.873
STOP ABOVE 88.092
TARGET OPEN

LIVE TRADE 9 - OPEN


EURUSD (just activated)

LONG ABOVE 1.25312
STOP BELOW 1.24885
TARGET (1) 1.25969
TARGET (2) 1.26751


nicholas

GBPUSD

Possibility long on a break above 1.52150 but may coincide with nfp so will not have time to post

USDCHF

Possibility on a break below 1.06196 again coinciding with nfp.


nicholas

LIVE TRADE 8 (MAX +56 so far )

USDJPY stop moved to swing high to protect against nfp ,88.201

SHORT 87.873
STOP ABOVE 88.092
TARGET OPEN

LIVE TRADE 9 - OPEN

EURUSD (just activated) (max +65 so far)

LONG ABOVE 1.25312
STOP BELOW 1.24885
TARGET (1) 1.25969 FIRST TARGET HIT
TARGET (2) 1.26751

LIVE TRADE 10

GBPUSD (activated as posted before) (max +12 so far)

LONG ABOVE 1.5215
STOP BELOW 1.5172
TARGET 1.5281



all other orders cancelled for the moment


nicholas

These trades are 4H-1H-15M so the intermediate wave should be followed on the 1H timeframe until we get an exit.

LIVE TRADE 8

USDJPY (closed 87.58 +26)

SHORT 87.873
STOP ABOVE 88.092
TARGET OPEN

LIVE TRADE 9

EURUSD (closed 1.2580 +47)

LONG ABOVE 1.25312
STOP BELOW 1.24885
TARGET (1) 1.25969 FIRST TARGET HIT
TARGET (2) 1.26751

LIVE TRADE 10

GBPUSD (closed -48 inc spread)

LONG ABOVE 1.5215
STOP BELOW 1.5172
TARGET 1.5281

5 pips below the stop and this trade is stopped


nicholas

This is an honest evaluation of the method , bear in mind that i did not include any kind of money management within the trades and some errors i made on exits eg, i have to say and i dont really like to do this but trade 1 was an error on my part and never should of been taken, trade 3 was exited at a small loss when infact it should of been around 40 pips profit had the correct exit been used , and trade 7 the stop was way too large considering at that point the balance was at +98 pips which meant risking nearly all the profit made , i think overall a lot of pips where given and i have not made the calculation but i think on a 1/1 basis the score would of been much higher 6/10 is 60% correct trades ,allowing for trade 3 the score should be 7/10 70%, infact discounting trade 1 and trade 7 which i did not take on my live account the total profit would of been around 160 pips , not the best of weeks too with price action but its no good making excuses but i am happy with the result because it is positive and my live account is showing a much larger gain.


TRADE 1 -40
TRADE 2 +29
TRADE 3 -4
TRADE 4 +81
TRADE 5 +25
TRADE 6 +6
TRADE 7 -80
TRADE 8 +26
TRADE 9 +47
TRADE 10 -48


+214 pips/ -172 = + 42 pips

all spreads have been taken out.

nicholas

Fascinating. I like the rationale behind the trades...learning for sure...i will be following you closely. Thanks for sharing with us.

Thanks mort,


the rational or logic is really how the markets work, markets are best traded in 3 dimensions only, trend/ retracement on our trading timeframe, moving with the higher timeframe and entry from the lower timeframe, key factor understanding that waves subdivide at all levels.


I will start a new challenge soon using one pair and the 30-5-1 combo , risk aversion is important so one pair is all that is needed.

nicholas

Hi Nicholas can I clarify please mate are you teaching your method here and the courses are just for your 1-1 guidance, or are the courses the only way to learn your method?

No disrespect intended, just want to clarify as I can't get my head round the thread (am a simple guy)

cheers and good luck

The thread is just for market presence and more obviously as the category suggests -commercial , although i do not actively promote the course on the website ,its there if someone wants to learn .

nicholas

ok so this whole thread is market presence only, tells me that your purpose here is only commercial which is cool. one thing that confuses a lot of us is you make so many pips yet charge very high prices to teach something which is currently veery ambiguous

If your referring to trend trading as a method in general that others have tried to use without the proper knowledge then i would agree,

as far as my method is concerned there is no ambiguity ,there is either a trend or there is not ,there is either a retracment or not the entry is there or is not ,very simple all visualy displayed on the charts while trading ,if you do not understand how a trend develops and what its relationship to the higher and lower timeframes are then you may as well pack up trend trading.

In fact the method allows us to trade three trends at once from one chart the lower,timeframe current and higher all from one chart .


nicholas

Hi all,

distractions sorted and back to business ,so lets kick off with a bit of theory before i start a new challenge, by the way the challenge will be 3 days a week Mon-Tue-Wed as i have other commitments trading and teaching and i will be using the 30-5-1 timeframes to trade so that i can get more trades on the board and i will only be trading from one particular pair for a very specific reason that i will discuss later.


First about the method ,yes its trend trading ,we do nothing until there is a trend , it uses multiple timeframes due to the markets being fractal in nature and we use the waves within waves concept to our advantage without having to have any knowledge of elliott etc.


Now what is a wave well that is something that i will not discuss here other than to show visually the wave that i am trading on a chart but here is the process.

A wave can be part of a higher degree wave and the wave itself will be made up of lower degree waves.

So we use the 30 minute as our base timeframe and if we see a trend we know that trend is part of a higher degree wave so we trade it from the 30 minute waiting for a retracement ,we then look at the 5 minute and wait to see if a new trend begins from the retracement back in the direction of the original trend.

If i see a new wave on the 30 minute then i will trade its trend from the 5 minute by waiting for a retracement there and then dropping down to the 1 minute to wait for a new trend to develop from the retracement back into the higher 5 minute trend.

Its that simple but as i have said many a time the key is knowing the theory of how to identify the waves.


How do we exit ,

well i will give you one of my favourite exit methods , its called break even percentage exit.

Break even percentage is calculated by taking the stop and the profit take level adding together and dividing by the stop then multiplying by 100.

eg stop = 10 pips
profit take=10 pips

10 /(10+10)=.50 x100 =50%

this means i would need to make 50% correct trades to break even


so if i increase the profit take to 15 pips and keeping the stop at 10 pips


10/(10+15)=.40

now i only need to be right 40% of the time to break even if i increase the take profit to 20 and keep the stop the same then

10/(10+20)=33.33

now i only need to be right 33.33% of the time to break even

10 trades
win 3.3= 66pips
lose 6.3 =-64 which is break even


now the beauty of this profit taking method is that i always know my stop which is dictated by price action from the retracement and i know that my win percentage is close to 70% but i only need to be right 33% of the time if use the previous example and anything above that is profit.


I will kick things off with a recent chart to help you follow along


As you can see this particular wave has given 3 trades


Trade 1

STOP 27 PIPS
TAKE PROFIT 54 pips - price did not reach the level for the 33% break even level and the wave end signal came on the 30 minute for -2 on the spread.

Trade 2

STOP 15 pips
TAKE PROFIT 30 pips - easily reached 30 pips


TRADE 3

STOP 26 PIPS
TAKE PROFIT 54 PIPS - easily reached 54 pips


Thats 3 trades 2 winners and 1 loser 66% win 33 percent lose which is well above out 33% break even point, im sure you could calculate the profit based on 40% and 50% break even ratios.


For full details of the course i run where you can learn this method and start to become profitable , a new student of mine easily made over 500 pips over the past few weeks using this method.

www.123-trend-trading.com

The importance of trading one pair


Can you tell the future?
Do you have a crystal ball?
Do you know of any method that guarantees when or where a trade will end ?
Do you know where a trend is going to end before it ends?

Of course not you or i or any one can accurately guarantee when a trend will end or when the price will stop moving in the same direction and make a retracement or reversal before it happens.

Some things are consistent in the markets

Markets trend at various times across various timeframes
We can identify the beginning of a trend
Trends tend to persist
Trends do pause by making a retracement before continuing and making a higher high in an uptrend and a lower low in a down trend.
We know when a trend has ended.
We know the markets are fractal (waves within waves) .


The one simple fact that we can not be sure where or when a trend will end or the price will stop moving in the same direction makes it difficult to trade using multiple currency pairs and be consistantly profitable ,you could be unlucky and each time you enter a trend even if you are only taking one trade at a time ,that you hit the end of the trend so it makes far more sense to trade using only one currency pair, take all the entries into a trend that way you will have a good chance of taking entries into the trend that give profit along with the ones that do not and this should balance out into consistent profitability.




nicholas


www.123-trend-trading.com

TRADING IS NOT DIFFICULT

FINDING THE KNOWLEDGE IS


Take a look at the chart ,30 minute trend with its 5 minute waves giving some great entries ,very simple.

Read a couple of posts back for a clear explanation of what is happening here.


nicholas

Check my website out for full details of how you can learn to trade any market with guaranteed success.

www.123-trend-trading.com

DO YOU SEE A TREND ?
DO YOU SEE A RETRACEMENT?
DO YOU SEE THE TREND RESUMING FROM THE RETRACEMENT?
CAN YOU SEE AND UNDERSTAND THAT MARKETS ARE FRACTAL ? (waves within waves)
CAN YOU UNDERSTAND THAT PLACING YOUR STOP IN A LOGICAL PLACE IS CRITICAL TO TRADING PROFITABLY?
DO YOU UNDERSTAND WHY BREAK EVEN PERCENTAGE IS SO IMPORTANT TO MAINTAINING A CONSITENTLY PROFITABLE ACCOUNT?



TRADING IS NOT DIFFICULT
FINDING THE KNOWLEDGE TO TRADE PROFITABLE IS

nicholas
www.123-trend-trading.com

Nice little uptrend here on the swissy 30minute , with a 5 minute 123 continuation.

Please do not attempt the anaysis with zigzag the trendlines are there for visual representation of the trading method.


If you wish to learn to trade this method see my website with a money back guarantee

nicholas

www.123-trend-trading.com

Chart showing 30 minute trend with 5 minute 123 trend continuation entry as viewed from the 5 minute chart


nicholas

www.123-trend-trading.com