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  • #12,821
  • Jul 1, 2010 1:20am Jul 1, 2010 1:20am
Hi, Strat and 'Strat team':

I am a forex newbie (no more than 6 months experience). Three months ago, I had all the newbie's charcters:
1. Like the crossing signal system
2. Like the short term trades
3. Like to study multiple strategies to catch all the market move

I changed my mind after a while reading James' chart thread and this thread and other materials. Currently I understand:
1. Most line crossing system will kill me in sideway market. We need to learn to read the market instead of depending on the line cross;
2. 1/5/15/30 minute is not suitable for me. I feel very stressful there;
3. Acturally I think daily trading is not very easy for me.

I lurked in this thread for two weeks and read 200 pages now. I like the story and the training style. Plus I want to find a stress free investigation method. I want to join this community and learn from you.

BTW, I am an engineer in my daily job. So please forgive me if I take tens of stupid questions before getting the right way

Regards,
Yang
  • #12,822
  • Jul 1, 2010 4:47am Jul 1, 2010 4:47am
Hi all:

I am not sure whether my two questions are answered or not in this thread. I did the investigation in this thread (page 1-page 200, do not read the whole thread yet) but don't find the answer. Any hints/comments/explainations are really welcome.

1. What is "strong close" exactly means?
It always appears like "the price has strong close above 20".
I cannot find the exact meaning of that. I guess it maybe means:
(1) Close with very high volumn compares to previous days
(2) Close with a large bar without long wicks
(3) Or combine the two

2. S/R line
I tried to reproduce what the S/R Strat pointed out. But sometimes I cannot get it. I think the way to draw S/R is not the same as BlackEagle said. Please see the chart in http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...7&postcount=75.
It does not seem to draw it from Monthly and Weekly and then fine tuning in daily (BlackEagle way - the classic way). It likes to draw by bar close in the previous few days. I was trying to use daily confirmed swing low/high bar's close to draw it. It still not the same. Could anybody tell me what is the creteria to draw the support based on the chart? And why 1.5550 is a major support?

Regards,
Yang
  • #12,823
  • Jul 1, 2010 5:16am Jul 1, 2010 5:16am
Quoting strat
See attached chart:

The EURGBP has also made an outside engulfing bar but this time a BULLISH engulfing bar where it engulfed Wednesday, Thursday and Friday's bars so pretty bullish - eh?

There are problems with this:

Although today is a strong bullish bar it is on less volume than any of the bars it engulfed - not a good sign.

It stopped at the 50 - could be taking a rest before moving higher.

It is boxed in between the 20 and 50 - directionless

The 20 is below the 50 - bearish

The daily is caught in a triangle and in a downtrend

There...
Hi, Strat:

Sorry for bothering you again. These are another 2 stupid questions. Could you give me some hints of your thought process?

1. "It is boxed in between the 20 and 50 - directionless"
Can I understand it another way as
It has (strong?) close over 20 -- bullish
I guess the 50 resistence change your sentiment, is that correct?
2. Trendline
In your trend line drawing method, I remember the most important point is connect the (confirmed) swing low/high bar's open/close (not high/low). But why the chart seems to connect the high/lows? Could you explain a little more? So I can understand it better. (Acturally I typically draw this kind of trendline -- connecting bar highs/lows in my previous experience).

Thanks.
Yang
  • #12,824
  • Jul 1, 2010 6:04am Jul 1, 2010 6:04am
Well the UK trip is done and dusted so let's get back into the 'swing' of things.

I will wait for Friday as it is week ending, month ending and half year ending before doing any analysis.

Thanks to all who helped out on the thread while I was draining my bank account and adding 10lbs to my body!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,825
  • Jul 1, 2010 6:13am Jul 1, 2010 6:13am
Quoting syyzxsyf
Hi, Strat and 'Strat team':

I am a forex newbie (no more than 6 months experience). Three months ago, I had all the newbie's charcters:
1. Like the crossing signal system
2. Like the short term trades
3. Like to study multiple strategies to catch all the market move

I changed my mind after a while reading James' chart thread and this thread and other materials. Currently I understand:
1. Most line crossing system will kill me in sideway market. We need to learn to read the market instead of depending on the line cross;
2. 1/5/15/30 minute is not...
Thread hopper,

My initial response is the same as my Post # 12794.

Until you settle down and choose a method and then learn it and fully understand it, you will never be successful or happy. Skipping from one method/system to another is doomed to failure.

Find a method/system which is compatible with your trading personality and then study and learn it until you can do it with your eyes closed.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,826
  • Jul 1, 2010 6:23am Jul 1, 2010 6:23am
Quoting syyzxsyf
Hi all:

I am not sure whether my two questions are answered or not in this thread. I did the investigation in this thread (page 1-page 200, do not read the whole thread yet) but don't find the answer. Any hints/comments/explainations are really welcome.

1. What is "strong close" exactly means?
It always appears like "the price has strong close above 20".
I cannot find the exact meaning of that. I guess it maybe means:
(1) Close with very high volumn compares to previous days
(2) Close with a large bar without long wicks
(3) Or combine the...
Your questions are typical of one who has 'flash read' the thread. ALL the answers to your questions are there but you MUST read and UNDERSTAND each and every post.

There is no race in trading - the markets will ALWAYS be there so TAKE YOUR TIME and study carefully by reading and UNDERSTANDING each and every post.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,827
  • Jul 1, 2010 6:37am Jul 1, 2010 6:37am
Quoting strat
Thread hopper,

My initial response is the same as my Post # 12794.

Until you settle down and choose a method and then learn it and fully understand it, you will never be successful or happy. Skipping from one method/system to another is doomed to failure.

Find a method/system which is compatible with your trading personality and then study and learn it until you can do it with your eyes closed.
OW, that's about me... hoho... felt flattered (well, lil' bit ashamed too actually.... )

Hmm... as for you who referred as thread hopper (sorry, your name ain't easy to spell, I'm kinda idiot.. ), you may read that post, mate. And be sure to find your clue there....

GLHF m8
  • #12,828
  • Jul 1, 2010 6:39am Jul 1, 2010 6:39am
Quoting syyzxsyf
Hi, Strat:

Sorry for bothering you again. These are another 2 stupid questions. Could you give me some hints of your thought process?

1. "It is boxed in between the 20 and 50 - directionless"
Can I understand it another way as
It has (strong?) close over 20 -- bullish
I guess the 50 resistence change your sentiment, is that correct?
2. Trendline
In your trend line drawing method, I remember the most important point is connect the (confirmed) swing low/high bar's open/close (not high/low). But why the chart seems to connect the high/lows?...
Thread hopper - see my previous reply. You are trying to run before you can even crawl or walk. Long term, stress free trading is achieved by serious studying, learning and understanding. This is a business and, just like Enineering and any other PROFESSIONAL BUSINESS, you have to study, learn and practice the basics and principles before even attempting professional work.

It appears you still have the newbie short time frame, must make as many trades as I can and do it NOW 95% losers mentality. Success starts with YOU so until YOU get YOUR act together with respect to trading, you will continue to search for the Holy Grail and Magic System and be forever hopping from one system/method to another. Xie Xie.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,829
  • Jul 1, 2010 6:56am Jul 1, 2010 6:56am
Quoting strat
Well the UK trip is done and dusted so let's get back into the 'swing' of things.

I will wait for Friday as it is week ending, month ending and half year ending before doing any analysis.

Thanks to all who helped out on the thread while I was draining my bank account and adding 10lbs to my body!
Hi Strat,
Good to see you back and hope you had good holidays. Will enjoy and learn more reading you posts.
Thanks
  • #12,830
  • Jul 1, 2010 7:13am Jul 1, 2010 7:13am
This is PASR at its finest. I challenge ANYONE to show me a simpler, more reliable, profitable and consistent method of trading.

We have everything here including fibs (not shown) and 5 'safe' entries.

If you can't see and don't know why this is a beautiful example then you need to read and UNDERSTAND more and, its ALL in here!

Quod Erat Demonstrandum!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.gif Size: 44 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,831
  • Jul 1, 2010 7:13am Jul 1, 2010 7:13am
Quoting strat
Thanks to all who helped out on the thread while I was draining my bank account and adding 10lbs to my body!
The very definition of a vacation. glad you are back.
  • #12,832
  • Jul 1, 2010 7:46am Jul 1, 2010 7:46am
Beautiful PASR again and again and again and ...........................
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bpusd.gif Size: 34 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,833
  • Jul 1, 2010 8:14am Jul 1, 2010 8:14am
Quoting strat
Beautiful PASR again and again and again and ...........................
welcome back ...YOU inspired the cricketers..BUT the FOOTBALL TEAM ???..
ah well 2014 is just round the corner !!!..

baz
  • #12,834
  • Jul 1, 2010 8:57am Jul 1, 2010 8:57am
that I recieved, thought I'd share here.

Why We Learn From Our Mistakes
July 1, 2010
ScienceDaily- Psychologists from the University of Exeter have identified an 'early warning signal' in the brain that helps us avoid repeating previous mistakes. Published in the Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience, their research identifies, for the first time, a mechanism in the brain that reacts in just 0.1 seconds to things that have resulted in us making errors in the past.
Previous research has shown that we learn more about things for which we initially make incorrect predictions than for things for which our initial predictions are correct.
The element of surprise in discovering we are wrong is conducive to learning, but this research is the first to show how amazingly rapid our brain's response can be. This discovery was made possible through the use of electrophysiological recordings, which allow researchers to detect processes in the brain at the instant they occur.
'It's a bit of a cliché to say that we learn more from our mistakes than our successes,' said psychologist Professor Andy Wills of the University of Exeter, 'but for the first time we've established just how quickly the brain works to help us avoid repeating errors. By monitoring activity in the brain as it occurs, we were able to identify the moment at which this mechanism kicks in.'
For this study, a group of volunteers took part in a computerised task, which involved them making predictions based on information they were given. New information was then introduced, which made many of their predictions incorrect, so they needed to learn from this in order to avoid repeating the error. While they did this, their brain activity was recorded via 58 electrodes placed on their scalp. The researchers identified activity in the lower temporal region of the brain, the area closest to the temples. This occurred almost immediately after the person was presented with the visual object that had previously made them make an error, and before there was time for conscious consideration. Most previous research in this field has focused on the frontal lobes of the brain, which are the areas associated with sophisticated human thought processes such as planning, analysis and conscious decision-making. The lower temporal region of the brain, which was the focus for this activity, is responsible for the recognition of visual objects.
'This brain signal could help us in many different kinds of situations,' said Professor Wills. 'For example, when driving abroad the rules of the road sometimes differ. We may make a mistake the first time we misinterpret a situation, for example not realising that in the States cars can turn right on a red light. The next time we're driving out there and see a red light, this early warning signal will immediately alert us to our previous mistake to prevent us from repeating it.'
It is much easier to determine how to do a task correctly, after we have determined what is required to do it incorrectly.
That is the essence of transformational learning.
  • #12,835
  • Jul 1, 2010 10:13am Jul 1, 2010 10:13am
Quoting strat
Well the UK trip is done and dusted so let's get back into the 'swing' of things.

I will wait for Friday as it is week ending, month ending and half year ending before doing any analysis.

Thanks to all who helped out on the thread while I was draining my bank account and adding 10lbs to my body!
now get trading and exercise.
  • #12,836
  • Jul 1, 2010 11:05am Jul 1, 2010 11:05am
The more I read and understand, the more beautiful it looks. Slowly gaining eyesight with it, but know it's going to take time.
Currently at pg 124 and plugging.....taking notes too.


Quoting strat
This is PASR at its finest. I challenge ANYONE to show me a simpler, more reliable, profitable and consistent method of trading.

We have everything here including fibs (not shown) and 5 'safe' entries.

If you can't see and don't know why this is a beautiful example then you need to read and UNDERSTAND more and, its ALL in here!

Quod Erat Demonstrandum!
  • #12,837
  • Jul 1, 2010 11:17am Jul 1, 2010 11:17am
email I received a few days ago that I want to share and thought some may like and find useful.

This is an excerpt from the book The Talent Code by, Daniel Coyle.
The Tiny, Powerful Idea.
In 1997 Gary McPherson set out to investigate a mystery that has puzzled parents and music teachers since time immemorial: why certain children progress quickly at music lessons and others don't. He undertook a long-term study that sought to analyze the musical development of 157 randomly selected children. Mcpherson took a uniquely comprehensive approach, following the children from a few weeks before they picked out their instrument (at age seven or eight in most cases) through to high school graduation, tracking their progress through a detailed battery of interviews, biometric tests, and videotaped practice sessions.
After the first nine months of lessons the kids where a typical mixed bag: a few had zoomed off like rockets; a few had barely budged; most were somewhere in the middle. Skill was scattered along a bell curve of what we'd intuitively consider to be musical aptitude. The question was, what caused the curve? Was it inevitable, just a descriptive chart of what happens among any randomly chosen population who are striving to master a skill? Or was there some hidden X factor that explained and predicted each child's success and failure?
McPherson started analyzing his data to try to find the reason.
Was the X factor IQ? Nope. Was it aural sensitivity? Nope. Was it math skills or sense of rhythm? Sensorimotor -skills? Income level? Nope, nope, nope, nope.
Then McPherson tested a new factor: the children's answers to a simple guestion that he'd asked them before they had even started their first lesson. The question was' how long do you think you'll play your new instrument? "They mostly say 'Uh, I dunno' at first ," McPherson said. "But then when you keep digging and ask them a few times, eventually they will give you a real solid answer. They have an idea, even then. They've picked up something in their environment that's made them say yes, that's for me." The children were asked to identify how long they planned to play (the options were: through this year, through primary school, through high school, all my life), and their answers were condensed into three categories:
Short-term commitment
Medium-term commitment
Long-term commitment
McPherson then measured how much each child practiced per week: low (20 minutes per week); medium (45 minutes per week); and high (90 minutes per week).
The differences were staggering. With the same amount of practice, the long term commitment group outperformed the short term commitment group by 400 percent.
The long term commitment group, with a mere twenty minutes of weekly practice, progressed faster than the short termers who practiced for an hour and a half. When long term commitment is combined with high levels of practice, skills skyrocketed.
I see these concepts play out regularly. A key problem is zero practice coupled with immediate (short-term) expectations of success.
The transformational learner is in it for the long haul, the informational learner is looking for the short cut.
Read this article a second time and map out some pardigm changes you need to make and focus on those changes for the remainder of the sumer.
  • #12,838
  • Jul 1, 2010 5:53pm Jul 1, 2010 5:53pm
Quoting strat
This is PASR at its finest. I challenge ANYONE to show me a simpler, more reliable, profitable and consistent method of trading.

We have everything here including fibs (not shown) and 5 'safe' entries.

If you can't see and don't know why this is a beautiful example then you need to read and UNDERSTAND more and, its ALL in here!

Quod Erat Demonstrandum!
Greetings Strat and welcome back. It has been very quiet on the thread during your absence.

I have a question concerning your 2 recent posts (#12830 and #12832) in which you have shown examples of PASR.

In many of your earlier posts, you have stressed thee importance of CLOSES when plotting SR lines.

An example is the following quote from your MS Word doc entitled “Need to know by Heart” concerning the plotting of SR lines:

“Determine by looking at CLOSE of the candle and add only those where there previously has been confluence of support and resistance or lots of congestion (You should only be drawing those lines which have meant something in the past: Was there a lot of congestion? How many times was price at S/R rejected?”

It is not possible to scroll back on your example charts to see previous history, but if the dotted lines on your recent posts represent SR lines they mostly seem to have been plotted from candle Highs and Lows, not closes.

My question is, have you changed your mind about concentrating on closes when plotting SR lines?
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #12,839
  • Jul 1, 2010 6:57pm Jul 1, 2010 6:57pm
Quoting strat
Well the UK trip is done and dusted so let's get back into the 'swing' of things.

I will wait for Friday as it is week ending, month ending and half year ending before doing any analysis.

Thanks to all who helped out on the thread while I was draining my bank account and adding 10lbs to my body!
Welcome back from holidays Strat !

Maybe your bank account took a HIT..... but that kind of HIT, sure
re-energizes the batteries.

Looking forward to your analysis.

Tom
  • #12,840
  • Jul 1, 2010 7:48pm Jul 1, 2010 7:48pm
Hi All,

Welcome back Strat and a reminder NFP tomorrow. Control yourself no matter how good PA looks, the risk is too high opening positions before NFP. You should be locking some profits if you have some positions opening. It is a good practice, you only have to it once every month.
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