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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #67,801
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:44pm Jun 30, 2010 10:44pm
Quoting mbqb11
A simple sell stop. i would look for a near round number and put it UNDER it. Here is the 1.0750
Hi Mike, where did you put your SL for this trade?
  • #67,802
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:45pm Jun 30, 2010 10:45pm
Quoting esbatu
Hi Mike, where did you put your SL for this trade?
Hey E

I did not catch this trade, I wish.

If I would have taken it though for me a stop above the 4th bar would make logical sense, and then a nice trail from there.

Best
Mike
  • #67,803
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:54pm Jun 30, 2010 10:54pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey E

I did not catch this trade, I wish.

If I would have taken it though for me a stop above the 4th bar would make logical sense, and then a nice trail from there.

Best
Mike
Do you mean this bar? (With blue arrow)
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  • #67,804
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:56pm Jun 30, 2010 10:56pm
Quoting esbatu
Do you mean this bar? (With blue arrow)
sorry should have posted a chart E

This one

Mike
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  • #67,805
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:10pm Jun 30, 2010 11:10pm
Ok thanks Mike. And here is another similar trade. Break of double bottom, break of PB and weekly PPZ
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  • #67,806
  • Jun 30, 2010 11:16pm Jun 30, 2010 11:16pm
Quoting Cyrus
...I have major qualms abt being long AUD @ this point. The risk environment doesn't seem to be pro long AUD of late. Short AUD positions would be pretty nice @ this point. As would long JPY and CHF.

...
I'm interested in knowing what factors preclude you from Buyng AUD at the moment. I must have missed them but that's not improbable.

& yes. Your read on my bias is correct. I'm looking to Short this pair but I still can't see "The Whites of their {Bull} Eyes"

Not in bed with the Stohs but having a drink with the RSI.
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{Time, Time Time...the Future.... & btw, Which one of you is Pink?
for the Old farts back in the 70's}
  • #67,807
  • Jul 1, 2010 1:06am Jul 1, 2010 1:06am
  •  Ideasmiths
  • | Joined Mar 2009 | Status: 一将功成万骨骷 Forex war! Win pips or die! | 30 Posts
Quoting Rosentrade
Hiya people, I'm hoping someone might be able to help me out. This info is probably supplied somewhere else, but what I've found I just don't get.

I've noticed that the charts on MT4 at home look different to the web charts I'm looking at while I have the inconvenience of being at work (waste of my valuable learning and trading time if you ask me).
If I guess correctly, you may have encountered 2 problems. The first is the source of the trading data and the 2nd is the software.

What I mean is that some trading education website, if they use 4 Hourly timeframe could be based on CST. However, when you look at your webchart/software, the data source could be based on EST.

I had this problem with my platform on TOS a while back, when the 4 Hourly data is 1 hour offset, which makes my candlesticks obviously different. TOS couldn't solve it as their data stream is such. So when I look at a 4H chart based on metatrader, it looks so much different on a 4H chart on TOS.

The only solution is to 1) get data source that is same timeperiod or find a software that can offset the data when it arrived on your screen.

If you go down to lowertimeframe, lets say 1 hourly chart, you should see that the 'difference' disappear. I hope I am on target with what you are asking.
  • #67,808
  • Edited 1:36am Jul 1, 2010 1:18am | Edited 1:36am
Quoting Bemac
I'm interested in knowing what factors preclude you from Buyng AUD at the moment. I must have missed them but that's not improbable.

& yes. Your read on my bias is correct. I'm looking to Short this pair but I still can't see "The Whites of their {Bull} Eyes"

Not in bed with the Stohs but having a drink with the RSI.
Attachment

{Time, Time Time...the Future.... & btw, Which one of you is Pink?
for the Old farts back in the 70's}
Well, the main thing is that we are in a risk aversion environment. After S&P 500 broke below 200day MA, we began seeing the market focus on bad news. June's lousy NFP number, Banking reform eating into profits, corporate bonds not quite finding buyers, Companies holding high levels of cash, crisis in Eurozone, talks of cutting deficits and stimulus, and in US, bush tax cuts are expiring so there'll be an automatic tax bump. These generally don't bode well for the market, but the main thing is that the market is thinking and zooming in on these things now.
Then we have S&P 500 cracking lows for the year which to me is trend/price confirming sentiment. Recent risk aversion slide perceived to be triggered by Shanghai Composite's -4.3% down day.

AUD and China are perceived now by the market to be joint @ the hip since AUD exports primarily to China, indeed their exports help to keep the Aus economy afloat despite recession elsewhere. In risk appetite env, AUD outperforms in relative strength quite strong, opp seems to hold true for risk aversion... just look @ that recent massive spike on north EURAUD daily.

EUR is more or less also a poster child of risk aversion. So we generally see EUR weaken with risk aversion.

K. Rehash. AUD is +ve w risk appetite and -ve w risk aversion. So is EUR.
So they essentially play the same side of aversion/appetite.

But given AUD's recent volatility in reaction to appetite/aversion, (and current env is moderate risk aversion, but could get worse) I think AUD has a good chance of weakening more than EUR. Hence wouldn't quite be long AUD.

If you look @ EURAUD recent few days, we've seen what? AUD weaken significantly vs EUR. 2 BIG BUBs over past 2 days as S&P 500 and other equity indices dip. Don't like to be short in a bid market. Will nd more than a pretty pin to convince me this tendency is changing. I am of the opinion this tendency will continue for @ least this leg since China is in the spotlight.

Summary:
EUR & AUD play same side of aversion/appetite game.
Risk env now is aversion.
AUD volatility > EUR volatility and thus likely to "out-weaken" it

I'm more than willing to hear your side of the story sir. Always much to learn in this game.
Not saying long or short this pair, too uncertain for me with the way PA & risk env is. (it might change... tomorrow? LOL. There's a chance that if EURAUD tags 1.55 (ur blue zone) and comes off, I'll be hopping on with you)
More sure bets to imo now are long JPY and CHF as mentioned, and/or short comdty ccys vs USD though (on daily TF btw)
One Mind, Any Market
  • #67,809
  • Jul 1, 2010 1:34am Jul 1, 2010 1:34am
Quoting mbqb11
sorry should have posted a chart E

This one

Mike
Hi Mike - nice move - Was there any specific PA that triggered this trade?

Thanks

J
  • #67,810
  • Jul 1, 2010 2:12am Jul 1, 2010 2:12am
Hello jspeakman,
multiple bar low breakout.
see recent posts below:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=67790
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=67791
  • #67,811
  • Jul 1, 2010 2:24am Jul 1, 2010 2:24am
Quoting supremeChaos
Hello jspeakman,
multiple bar low breakout.
see recent posts below:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=67790
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=67791
Thanks SC - sort of forgotten about these! - need to restudy the breakout scenario

J
  • #67,812
  • Jul 1, 2010 2:49am Jul 1, 2010 2:49am
Quoting eswap0
IPB
Let's see what happens here...
Looks great to me! We need ghous for a thorough analysis
  • #67,813
  • Jul 1, 2010 2:54am Jul 1, 2010 2:54am
Quoting Cyrus
Summary:

EUR & AUD play same side of aversion/appetite game.
Risk env now is aversion.
AUD volatility > EUR volatility and thus likely to "out-weaken" it
I am a newbie at this please bear me. lol

EU & AU Play the same side of risk Ave/Appetite but do you think that the Interest rate differential is enough for longs in Risk Appetite mode???? So that advantage (for downside) is not present atm cause of risk aversion env.

On the technical side the midterm TL is broken and seems like price is heading towards Longterm TL for a test. But the bad news (for shorts) is that the lows from may-10 were not breached on jun-22.
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  • #67,814
  • Jul 1, 2010 3:18am Jul 1, 2010 3:18am
Quoting nasir.khan
I am a newbie at this please bear me. lol

EU & AU Play the same side of risk Ave/Appetite but do you think that the Interest rate differential is enough for longs in Risk Appetite mode???? So that advantage (for downside) is not present atm cause of risk aversion env.

On the technical side the midterm TL is broken and seems like price is heading towards Longterm TL for a test. But the bad news (for shorts) is that the lows from may-10 were not breached on jun-22.
Yay. A reply! LOL

The thing abt interest rate differentials is that it's a _carry_ play. The thing about that is that it's great if there's a firm pro-risk environment. But in a risk aversion environment, the probability of capital loss > carry gain is high.
I'd gladly pay a 2pips of carry for a 70% chance of a big figure (oops 100pip) gain... stuff along those lines... know what I mean?
Yes. I do acknowledge that the long term EURAUD trend is definitely short biased. I don't expect Europe to outperform Australia anytime soon... just that now the market is thinking about China-AUD and it's playing the AUD card as a proxy for China so it's pretty volatile and now, we're risk-off.

One can be right about the view, but the market is just not paying attention to it just yet cause it's freakin' out (risk aversion... risk AVVEERSSION!!! ARRGGHH!!!).

1.47 fig is a pretty strong PPZ, but I prefer to take PA when the risk environment is right.... and with the trend... heh. Guess it's just my preferred way of playing the game. Guess it makes the game more mentally stimulating too. TL wise... I'm not a big fan of TLs... mainly because... well, it works cause other people are using it, so unless it's really obvious and heavily respected, I don't pay that much attention to it. The "diagonal" lines tend to be more subjective, so I primarily use PPZ cause tt's alot harder to dispute.

Hope this makes sense.
One Mind, Any Market
  • #67,815
  • Jul 1, 2010 3:47am Jul 1, 2010 3:47am
Quoting Pinbar
EUR/GBP H4 short.
DEMO.

PB off 0.8225, is in line with larger TF trend, 50 & 23.6 fibo confluence at swing high, FTA 0.895 area.

Not that big a PB but it looks to be at a good area.

We shall see.
PB, that's not technically a pinbar is it? The close is above the high of the previous bar. Looking at the current chart, it's a good thing you did this on demo, the pseudo pinbar has failed.

This is an interesting pair, looking at shorter timescales, I'd agree short looks like the right position. Looking at the weekly however, there's a bullish pinbar forming.
  • #67,816
  • Jul 1, 2010 4:10am Jul 1, 2010 4:10am
Quoting Daneel
PB, that's not technically a pinbar is it? The close is above the high of the previous bar. Looking at the current chart, it's a good thing you did this on demo, the pseudo pinbar has failed.

This is an interesting pair, looking at shorter timescales, I'd agree short looks like the right position. Looking at the weekly however, there's a bullish pinbar forming.
I was under the impression that as long as the close was within the eyes of the prior and next bar they were valid. This is not the case?

Are you saying the open and close the of the PB must both be within the left eye?

That trade did not get triggered as I had a 10 pip margin for the EP.
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  • #67,817
  • Jul 1, 2010 4:15am Jul 1, 2010 4:15am
Quoting Pinbar
Are you saying the open and close the of the PB must both be within the left eye?
That's what I though yes, though you are probably right and I shall have egg to remove from my face in short order
  • #67,818
  • Jul 1, 2010 4:41am Jul 1, 2010 4:41am
Quoting Ideasmiths
If I guess correctly, you may have encountered 2 problems. The first is the source of the trading data and the 2nd is the software.

What I mean is that some trading education website, if they use 4 Hourly timeframe could be based on CST. However, when you look at your webchart/software, the data source could be based on EST.

I had this problem with my platform on TOS a while back, when the 4 Hourly data is 1 hour offset, which makes my candlesticks obviously different. TOS couldn't solve it as their data stream is such. So when I look at...
That's exactly what I was getting at. Thanks for the information. I think I may have sorted out a solution in using a web based version of the charts using the same broker I use for trading and charts from the MT platform. In theory that should sort it out I reckon - but whether it does will be interesting.

While I knew this was an issue - I had no idea of what was behind it, thanks for the info Ideas (living up to the name)

Would be easier if all brokers and chart providers used the same time - ie NY. But then now that I've said that I'm nowhere near there so it makes no sense to me either... uh oh rambling again.
  • #67,819
  • Jul 1, 2010 4:43am Jul 1, 2010 4:43am
Anybody watching ***jpy pairs now?

S&P and Dow is already at the very important weekly support (H&S neckline?) with most of jpy pair being at the support aswell. Low home sales number and bad unempolyment rate could add fuel for some good moves but i think most of the guys are waiting for tomorrows non-farms. A little push downside and the price will trigger the stops which should be big enough to deliver some good action. I wonder if Rac share my view ;]

Cheers
  • #67,820
  • Jul 1, 2010 4:50am Jul 1, 2010 4:50am
Quoting Pinbar
I was under the impression that as long as the close was within the eyes of the prior and next bar they were valid. This is not the case?

Are you saying the open and close the of the PB must both be within the left eye?

That trade did not get triggered as I had a 10 pip margin for the EP.
The right eye does not matter, it's the left eye that the pin's close needs to close under (or above in the case of bullish setups )

Jig
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