Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

Which camp are you in? bulls, bears, neither right now?

I am bullish on it, though i am hoping for a better price

So far so good. Set my SL to BE just in case Asia decides to come on and take my money. Should be ok though, but just in case; they like to take my pips If all else fails, I get stopped at BE + a few and get back in at a better price.

I only turn into the hulk when people come on and complain that our Nearly Naked charts have too many cloths on (Indicators). Then Marc, Calderone and I have to regulate and banish them to the EU and GU threads

Good. I am tired with this I am all day in and it has moved only 25 pips lol

Feel that same. Not liking PA right now with it (GU). Just setting some good targets above and below

I am new to this site and relatively new to FOREX. 30 yr on a permanent hiatus from corp america (god willing). Have had a very successful career thus far, but am searching for a way to be in complete control of my destiny. I spent the past 7 years in medical device sales, so I had a lot of money saved, but my finance back ground is extremely limited. I have been actively trading EUR/USD for the past 2 months (would like to stick to this pair for now). I am treating the FOREX like I have treated every vertical movement in my career to date; I am tirelessly devoted to being successful. I am organized (charting every day's results) and planning my trades to a Tee. I have finally learned that impulse trading will catch you, 95% of the time, so I am trying to be as discipline as I possibly can be (ie...sticking to my trade plan). Soooo, I was hoping for some feed-back on my 'Trade Plan".
I have noticed that Break-Out trades are very reliable- so that is what I am limiting myself to in my LIVE account. I should also mention that, my goal is to get 20 pips out of each break out trade (20 pip stop). I would be happy with this on a daily basis. My weekly goal is 50 pips. I am basing my break out parameters on the nightly high and low (rounding off these numbers to get support and resistance). I am also using Dinapoli 5x7, DEMA and SMA as my indicators. I have found that when the Dinapoli and DEMA lines cross on my 2,3,5 min charts, I have good indication that the short term trend is changing. So if my Support is 2250 (night low of 2247) and I have my indicators crossed in a downward direction, I will go short at 2240 (which should give me enough breathing room to not fall for any fake outs). I have noticed that when the nightly S/R is broken it generally will run 30+ pips hence giving me enough time and wiggle room for a solid, high probability 20 pip trade.

So, I figure (based on my data collection) this will happen 3-4 days a week with 80% success. Let’s say it happens 3 times a week, 2 of the weeks in the month and 4 times the other two weeks (which is totals 14). At 80%, that would be 10 positive for 20 and 4 negative for 20. Based on these numbers, I should be up 120 pips for the month just on this one trade.
I have also found trading at the 00's is a very reliable way to trade, so I will also trade at these levels as well. In my data collection, so far a 15 pip trade is reliable (with a 20 stop), 8 times out of 10 as well. So if a solid 00's opportunity also happens 3 (during the morning session only) times a week or 12 times a month, with 80% accuracy, I should be up 75 pips (9 x 15= 135 - 60 (loser trades) = 75). Giving me a total of 195 pips a month, or an average of 10 pips per day.
As I gain more experience I am sure that I will develop more ways to confidently trade, but if I am trading my hard earned money, the above strategy at this point makes me feel comfortable. I am going to keep my demo account open and trade different trading scenarios until I find more that work for me 80% (or so) of the time.
Keep in mind guys, I am very green, but this does seem to work pretty darn well. Some thoughts I have are possibly tightening up my stop on the break-out trades (15 instead of 20). My thought process here is that if it comes back on me over 10 pips, it probably is a false break-out, so why risk throw away another 5 pips on a loser. I don’t think this would work on the 00’s trades because I have been underwater several times on these trades and have seen the price turn at 20 or 80 on a dime and head back the other way for a profitable trade.
I don’t think holding longer positions is something I have the stomach for, so scalping fits my personality a bit better, plus I have the time to really watch my trades in the morning. I also, will be working to become an expert or trading news announcements. I believe this is a way for me to comfortably stay in a trade for a long period of time, for a larger payoff, when I am an expert at interpreting reactions to data (non-farm payroll, CPI, GDP, etc..).
Questions- Where are all of you finding accurate S1,2,3 (and R) levels on a daily basis for the purposes of trading strategies like mine. Again, I am using nightly high and lows (from midnight on) to get my S/R, but as I look on the internet at different sites, the levels vary from site to site, time frame to time frame and method to method. Any insight here would be helpful. Also, I firmly believe that the indicators that I use are smarter than I am, so far they have been helpful when trying to find a good entry point (at times when I am not trading a breakout). Like I said, DEMA and Dinapoli cross on 2,3,5 works pretty well. Any other suggestions on indicators that I might want to use?
Sorry for the novel here, but I would love to hear what the pro’s (who are consistently successful) think of my game plan. I am UP 42 pips in the past 3 days (demo acct and live account) so the new plan seems to be working. Thanks in advance for feedback!

Ya, I hear ya. Oh well, setting SL to BE + a few is a good feeling. Now you can move on to other pairs

Ya, no nonsense in here!

http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/10/10_9_137.gif

I did it. I just have another pending order just in case.

Mark hell I like your emoticons they r funny

Anyone considering 1.5 for a short on gbp/usd ? I ve missed the first entry ...

Wonder how weekly will close.

My order didn't get hit so I am just gonna watch it a bit.

hikkake, maybe a continuation down? I have a 12 pip spread on this baby!

Same here. Saved at BE and going to get some sleep now.
Hope Asia doesn't take all my pips back

See you guys. take care and trade safe:nerd:

good night

peace

Hey Vince, welcome. What I personally would suggest you would do, is go over Price action analysis, and learn to identify trouble areas.

here is a good place to learn http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=2331

also, about the news trading. It might work for you, I'm not the one to judge. But I would like to point out that there are many traders that struggle with the fundies. I ignore them mostly.

also watch out for fridays, there is less action. And some people are taking profits for the week.


confluence with trades is key in my opinion. The more confluence the higher the probability of success.

also, try to keep the amount you risk at any trade.. like 0.50% or 1%..

lessen the risk when you have logical areas to move your stop loss to. And taking 1:2+ risk reward ratio setups is never a bad thing

in MY opinion you should demo trade for 3 consecutive months, and if each of these 3 months you are in profit, then it should be 'safe' for you to move to a live account.


Again.. what I said here above is only my opinions and thoughts, they might differ from yours and thats absolutely fine.

Best regards, Stefán M.

Hi Vince Welcome to the thread. Best thing that can ever happened to your FOREX career. You won't be disappointed. These R1,2,3 and S1,2.. etc are called pivot points . They are lines that are calculated by some formulas using previous day/week/4hr/ etc candle price ( open,close,high,low) and people use them as a s/r. There are indicators that calculate them. The most reliable pivots ( imo ) are calculated by NY close. There are ppl here that can go in-depth about pivots but that is the main thing you should know. Thats about pivots.
For 2 months you are doing pretty/amazingly well. Just stick to "00" levels, fibs(add 78.6 level to your fib collection ), tls, s/r, pivots, maybe Ma's and you are going to be well for sure. Just don't quit.As I can see from your post above you won't In other words use the things that the majority of traders use - "00" levels, fibs, tls, s/r, pivots, maybe Ma's. It is important to stick to the trend ( when he is not gone ) Try to keep your risk reward ratio (RRR) above 1:1. A guy here just made 1:6.5 which means he used - 50 pips for stop and he gained 325 pips. Plan ahead. Don't chase price. Listen to the people here. All of them are successfully trading Most of the thing I am saying right now you have probably heard many times but they are god damn true. Don't panic when you trade. Do not trade this Friday it is NFP Friday and if you check your calendar you will fall from your chair there are hundreds of big news. NFP friday is every first friday of the month. You MUST read almost all of the post here. There is a lot of true in them. Most important - don't hesitate to ask and listen to the others (Saxon, Mark,Tuner, Ingmarforex, S69 something - sry mate , amyc, calderone and other people which names I can't remember right now ). Best of luck mate