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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #11,101
  • Edited 4:24am Jun 22, 2010 4:21am | Edited 4:24am
Quoting Arfer Daily
Really? What are you doing when you use fib extensions, channel lines, horizontal s/r, pivot points or any other method of determining a target? Ok so beyond targets isn't worth forecasting but the whole premise of the article is silly in my view, it's a point not worth making and the guy is more interested in selling his book than actually helping anyone. A free one on one session, give me a break!

and hello to you to, jesus!! each to their own, no big deal....personally i feel it has a very very good lesson in it that new traders can learn a great deal from. You seem to be talking about targets. nowhere in the article do they say anything about determining targets. I also don't see anywhere where the author mentions fib ext, S & R, piv pts etc etc. They are talking about directional changes and the skills the professional develops to know when that has taken place and pinpointing that spot by letting the market tell you what is taking place rather than you "forecasting". The reason i wrote "subtle post" is because in my opinion this little article holds a very good key to trading and that is to let the market tell you when to get in and get out by it's actions and not to forecast what may happen but to develop your skills to the point that you let the market tell you when that is and you recognise it.

i must be missing something cos i can't see where it says anything about a one on one or selling his book in that article??

anyway, have a great day
  • #11,102
  • Jun 22, 2010 4:55am Jun 22, 2010 4:55am
Quoting zorroz
and hello to you to, jesus!! each to their own, no big deal....personally i feel it has a very very good lesson in it that new traders can learn a great deal from. You seem to be talking about targets. nowhere in the article do they say anything about determining targets. I also don't see anywhere where the author mentions fib ext, S & R, piv pts etc etc. They are talking about directional changes and the skills the professional develops to know when that has taken place and pinpointing that spot by letting the market tell you what is taking place...
If you go to his blog address it's all about flogging his book. My point was that if you determine a target you have, to a degree, attempted to forecast the future price movement of the pair you are trading. You can't tell me that when you take a trade you don't have any idea at all where the price is going to go? You have a feeling of the general direction or you wouldn't take the trade.

Anyway, I just thought the article didn't really help anyone with anything. So pro traders don't forecast price, great. I try to forecast price so I know which direction to trade in.

The sun is shining and I'm going out for a ride on my bike in a while so I'm going to have a good day. I hope you have a good day too.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #11,103
  • Jun 22, 2010 5:03am Jun 22, 2010 5:03am
I know the trend is down but something tells me to be wary of the 50 level on the way down, we could definitely see a bounce there and retest of 1.24/5/6. Ultimately though I would think this is going down to 1.19/1.18.

Anybody else want to get this thread back to talking about trend trading eurusd?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #11,104
  • Jun 22, 2010 5:49am Jun 22, 2010 5:49am
Quoting Arfer Daily
If you go to his blog address it's all about flogging his book. My point was that if you determine a target you have, to a degree, attempted to forecast the future price movement of the pair you are trading. You can't tell me that when you take a trade you don't have any idea at all where the price is going to go? You have a feeling of the general direction or you wouldn't take the trade.

Anyway, I just thought the article didn't really help anyone with anything. So pro traders don't forecast price, great. I try to forecast price so I know...
no worries about all that and i get what you mean but the article isn't about forecasting a "target". you and he are on 2 different topics, it's all good but i think you have missed his point to some degree. yeah i like to try and forecast or have an idea of a target once i get in but i also try to leave it to price action to both get me in and get me out, in otherwords...let the market tell me...not me forecasting.

the lesson of it which in my opinion is good for newbies or anyone for that matter is to develop yr skills to a point where you can tell where ther is a change in direction and to concentrate on letting the market tell you what is happening and not to try and predict or forecast.

i didn't go to his blog or site or anything so i don't know about his sales pitch.

enjoy yr ride
  • #11,105
  • Jun 22, 2010 6:19am Jun 22, 2010 6:19am
Quoting zorroz
no worries about all that and i get what you mean but the article isn't about forecasting a "target". you and he are on 2 different topics, it's all good but i think you have missed his point to some degree. yeah i like to try and forecast or have an idea of a target once i get in but i also try to leave it to price action to both get me in and get me out, in otherwords...let the market tell me...not me forecasting.

the lesson of it which in my opinion is good for newbies or anyone for that matter is to develop yr skills to a...
Yes, I understand the point he is making but I just don't think it is very helpful.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #11,106
  • Jun 22, 2010 6:52am Jun 22, 2010 6:52am
Quoting Arfer Daily
Yes, I understand the point he is making but I just don't think it is very helpful.
fair enough
  • #11,107
  • Jun 22, 2010 5:56pm Jun 22, 2010 5:56pm
Dim problwm
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #11,108
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:41am Jun 23, 2010 8:41am
I'm generally short eurxxx right now (bounces from major trendlines)... all except eurgbp (missed the call) and eurchf (too much intervention). Is anyone else actually trading eurxxx?

I'm thinking of starting a trading journal for my own trading as I've had one or two people ask to be on my trades. Not an ego thing just sharing the love. Anybody interested? Express an interest via PM and I'll do it.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #11,109
  • Jun 29, 2010 1:05am Jun 29, 2010 1:05am
subscribing
if i used every commercial EA i would be a brazilianare by next week!!!!
  • #11,110
  • Jun 29, 2010 4:20am Jun 29, 2010 4:20am
Quoting Chocol8Elvis
subscribing

Hi Chocol8Elvis,

Why on Earth would you want to do that ?


Regards,


BabeFX.
  • #11,111
  • Jun 29, 2010 8:13am Jun 29, 2010 8:13am
Quoting BabeFX
Hi Chocol8Elvis,

Why on Earth would you want to do that ?


Regards,


BabeFX.


I agree
  • #11,112
  • Jun 30, 2010 1:09am Jun 30, 2010 1:09am
to the thread guys!!!
want to get notifications when this thread is updated!

i got about 700 pages to read lol!!!!

and to support Jacko.
if i used every commercial EA i would be a brazilianare by next week!!!!
  • #11,113
  • Jun 30, 2010 2:06am Jun 30, 2010 2:06am
Hi folks

Being bearish on the E/U, i will wait to see how the market takes care of the last reaction (2150-(2238 currently) and will short it! Doing the same in AUDUSD.

Have a nice day
  • #11,114
  • Jun 30, 2010 2:31am Jun 30, 2010 2:31am
Quoting Chocol8Elvis
to the thread guys!!!
want to get notifications when this thread is updated!

i got about 700 pages to read lol!!!!

and to support Jacko.

Hi Chocol8Elvis,

Pretty expensive book @ $1 per page !

Hope your not too disappointed with your purchase Caveat emptor

Regards,



BabeFX.
  • #11,115
  • Jun 30, 2010 5:17am Jun 30, 2010 5:17am
Hello,

I have read the first 52 pages of this thread. Great thread! Just one question keeps bugging me. If you look at the last 300 bars on the H4 chart or the Daily chart on the EURO, what do you say the trend is? Candles start from top left and they are now near the middle of the chart on H4, so you could say we're in a downtrend, right? Only we went up over 500 pips from that noticeable bottom at 1.1894. If I would have kept shorting all the way up to where we are now, going with the bear trend, I would be in deep ...

Don't get me wrong, your strategy sounds very nice and logical, but the notion of trend tends to be very fuzzy to me.

Thank you
  • #11,116
  • Jun 30, 2010 5:32am Jun 30, 2010 5:32am
Quoting JustPassing
Hi folks

Being bearish on the E/U, i will wait to see how the market takes care of the last reaction (2150-(2238 currently) and will short it! Doing the same in AUDUSD.

Have a nice day
It took care of it for shure... in the opposite direction. However, i am very patient.
  • #11,117
  • Jun 30, 2010 5:34am Jun 30, 2010 5:34am
Quoting marianbusoi
Hello,

I have read the first 52 pages of this thread. Great thread! Just one question keeps bugging me. If you look at the last 300 bars on the H4 chart or the Daily chart on the EURO, what do you say the trend is? Candles start from top left and they are now near the middle of the chart on H4, so you could say we're in a downtrend, right? Only we went up over 500 pips from that noticeable bottom at 1.1894. If I would have kept shorting all the way up to where we are now, going with the bear trend, I would be in deep ...

Don't get me wrong,...
I think you need to catch up a little more

The old notion of left to right trend analysis worked well pre 2008 crash when the market was moving in one direction for years... now you need to do a little more work to get the trend right... still not too hard though, a simple higher high/lower low analysis will work just fine!

Regards,

Dan
  • #11,118
  • Jun 30, 2010 5:53am Jun 30, 2010 5:53am
Quoting marianbusoi
Hello,

I have read the first 52 pages of this thread. Great thread! Just one question keeps bugging me. If you look at the last 300 bars on the H4 chart or the Daily chart on the EURO, what do you say the trend is? Candles start from top left and they are now near the middle of the chart on H4, so you could say we're in a downtrend, right? Only we went up over 500 pips from that noticeable bottom at 1.1894. If I would have kept shorting all the way up to where we are now, going with the bear trend, I would be in deep ...

Don't get me wrong,...

Hi marianbusoi,

This is one of the reasons why folks have difficulty in making money trading in Foreign Exchange Markets. Looking at what helps to drive market flows could help, fundamentals that is.

Word of advice, don't trade against the trend of the current day until such time as you can read the market correctly.


Regards,


BabeFX.
  • #11,119
  • Jun 30, 2010 8:16am Jun 30, 2010 8:16am
Quoting BabeFX
Looking at what helps to drive market flows could help, fundamentals that is.
I completely agree on that one.

As Jacko stated in this thread, trading is a business and nobody in its right mind would start a business about something that he/she doesn't understand.

Trying to trade forex without a knowing the very basis of economy is like becoming a taxi driver without knowing how to drive, you are likely to end crashed somewhere...

A basic understanding of supply and demand should be a good start;
It's easy to understand that:
- when lot's of people (high demand) want a rare product (low supply), the product will be sold at a higher price.
- when few people (low demand) want a product that is very easy to find (high supply) this product will be sold at a lower price.

Which object will sell with a high price on ebay? one that nobody wants, or one that everybody wants? one that is very easy to find at a local store or one that is very rare?

For example, when Merkel decided to ban short selling of German stocks.
All the short seller withdrew their money because it was useless since their weren't able to short sell anymore the German market:
Some of them removed it of the eurozone to trade something else (increasing supply of euro).
And some of them moved their euros to another euro based market.
But, nobody would buy euro as a basis to short sell german stock (decreasing the demand for euro).

And in "supply" and "demand" there is also the word "supply", meaning that a proper understanding of how the money is supplied is mandatory.
Money creation and Central bank are not meaningless words.


Now, look at the eurozone:
PIIGS are countries that are not attracting a lot's of lenders.
To lend money to a eurozone country, you need to lend it in euro, meaning that you need euros to do it.
If nobody want to lend them money, nobody will buy euro for that purpose, meaning that the demand for euro has been decreased.
Also, the money supply is growing for the euro because the lender for country like Greece is actually the european central bank.

On the other hand US was showing a higher sign of recovery meaning that US companies were more likely to show higher benefits, US bonds would be easier to pay, etc... so the demand for USD was higher.

It's still the case now, just that the recovery is less evident for both US and EU.


Are you people agreeing with that?
  • #11,120
  • Jun 30, 2010 10:16am Jun 30, 2010 10:16am
Thanks for your replies, guys. Well, I have a pretty solid knowledge of supply and demand concepts, but, to be honest, I have never paid much attention to fundamentals so far. You have a point. I should probably work on that part

I will keep reading your posts. Good luck with your trading and thanks again!
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