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Backing Trades Thru Charts

  • #1,401
  • Jun 26, 2010 6:38pm Jun 26, 2010 6:38pm
Quoting shahab8b
So tell me Coke, do you consider this pattern on A/U a bullish flag (a-e)?
The chart that you show is a classic bull flag...but it doesn't really tell the whole story IMO...

Currently if you compare the charts, we are caught between H4 support and Daily resistance.

See the wedge that will form and area of possible accumulation before distribution between the support and resistance lines...

What looks to be a classic bull flag, will most likely form a classic wedge and a perfect long term tug of war.

I sold off daily resistance and bought off daily support. Bear chart is still in effect, and until I see a bullish cross, I will assume the bear and take trigger from there. For now, this seems like a really good time to scalp the range.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: aud.jpg Size: 95 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,402
  • Jun 26, 2010 6:45pm Jun 26, 2010 6:45pm
Quoting Magix
The chart that you show is a classic bull flag...but it doesn't really tell the whole story IMO...

Currently if you compare the charts, we are caught between H4 support and Daily resistance.

See the wedge that will form and area of possible accumulation before distribution between the support and resistance lines...

What looks to be a classic bull flag, will most likely form a classic wedge and a perfect long term tug of war.

I sold off daily resistance and bought off daily support. Bear chart is still in effect, and until I see a bullish...
Thanks for your analysis. You kind of backed up what I just said, If I had a ''vertical'' pole with this channel I will be looking for HH. What I expect now based on this pattern is some what like a double top.
  • #1,403
  • Jun 26, 2010 6:47pm Jun 26, 2010 6:47pm
Quoting TheLastCoke
Thanks for your analysis. You kind of backed up what I just said, If I had a ''vertical'' pole with this cahnnel I will be looking for HH. What I expect now based on this pattern is some what like a double top.
Malcolmb introduced me to the AU/AJ pairs, cannot thank him enough...They play as close to the 200 rules as Cable and better then most others.

Yes, I agree exactly with what you said, just more so showing the reasons as to "Why" this will most likely play out like the examples you have shown.

A snapshot of any time frame is only as good as a movie trailer...Cripes, how many times have you thrown away good money on a crap movie because of a couple clips on a commercial?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,404
  • Jun 26, 2010 7:10pm Jun 26, 2010 7:10pm
Quoting TheLastCoke
Finding a parfect pattern is a bit difficult, that's why I didn't post it as a flag (see first picture #1357). IMHO it is not a flag because it has no clear pole. I see it more like a rectangle, in that case the target is the height of it. Pattern is valid now that we had a break.

Attachment

Traded it nicely #1308

Thanks Coke, actually I consider that a Double Flat Correction pattern in EW (abc-x-abc) technically speaking it should go up, if the count is right.

To support what you are saying and for newbie's education here is a textbook bullish flag in daily chart in A/U
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au9a.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #1,405
  • Jun 26, 2010 7:19pm Jun 26, 2010 7:19pm
Quoting shahab8b
Thanks Coke, actually I consider that a Double Flat Correction pattern in EW (abc-x-abc) technically speaking it should go up, if the count is right.

To support what you are saying and for newbie's education here is a textbook bullish flag in daily chart in A/U
You mean like this classic...chart pattern repeat?

I think the jury still out on the bears vs bulls, anything long term here left to assumption might just have as good of a chance as a coin toss.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au9ab.gif Size: 21 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,406
  • Jun 26, 2010 7:34pm Jun 26, 2010 7:34pm
Quoting Magix
You mean like this classic...chart pattern repeat?

I think the jury still out on the bears vs bulls, anything long term here left to assumption might just have as good of a chance as a coin toss.

I dont think they are the same, according to Thomas Bulkowski , the loose flags are not as confident as tight flags, the daily chart is a tight while the later is a loose. The funny thing is both happened after a double bottom in A/U (chart wise daily vs h4).
Also there is Kiwi chart in daily and 4hr at the same time as Assuie, continuation patterns.

I personally prefer the down side and I've got the same chart as you drew.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: kiwi4daa.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #1,407
  • Jun 26, 2010 9:31pm Jun 26, 2010 9:31pm
Quoting shahab8b
I dont think they are the same, according to Thomas Bulkowski , the loose flags are not as confident as tight flags, the daily chart is a tight while the later is a loose. The funny thing is both happened after a double bottom in A/U (chart wise daily vs h4).
Also there is Kiwi chart in daily and 4hr at the same time as Assuie, continuation patterns.

I personally prefer the down side and I've got the same chart as you drew.
Isn't that expanding triangle a megaphone and what does it imply?
  • #1,408
  • Jun 26, 2010 11:12pm Jun 26, 2010 11:12pm
Quoting clambill
Isn't that expanding triangle a megaphone and what does it imply?
In this case it is a broadening top, a reversal pattern and this is the right count for it:

Attached Image
  • #1,409
  • Jun 26, 2010 11:16pm Jun 26, 2010 11:16pm
Quoting Low
No, I was referring to the t1 on my chart, in the 1.6530 area. I've traded enough of these that just turn around at t1, which also is where I take 1/2 my position off and tighten stops.

I cannot reliably predict weather or not price will continue to the 2nd and 3rd targets.

Someone else here may be able to, so I'll leave it up to them to correct me if I'm wrong.
Got you, thanks kindly for the information.
  • #1,410
  • Jun 26, 2010 11:24pm Jun 26, 2010 11:24pm
Quoting stevefx
Got you, thanks kindly for the information.
The way I do is very simple, If the pattern is with the trend I aim T1 at 38% and T2 at 61% of CD. If pattern is against the trend I look for T1 at 23% and maybe 38%.

Hope this helps.
  • #1,411
  • Jun 26, 2010 11:31pm Jun 26, 2010 11:31pm
There are just way too many intelligent folks on this thread. Every time I visit I feel like I should just send myself back to babypips.

All you guys (and gals) are awesome.

I hope I can one day contribute to some of these conversations in an intelligible manner.
  • #1,412
  • Jun 27, 2010 12:45am Jun 27, 2010 12:45am
Grab Some Popcorn.

http://www.zeitgeistmovie.com/add_english.htm

http://www.zeitgeistmovie.com/
  • #1,413
  • Jun 27, 2010 1:18am Jun 27, 2010 1:18am
Quoting TheLastCoke
In this case it is a broadening top, a reversal pattern and this is the right count for it:

Attachment
VERY nice..!!!

I dont Visit this Thread...

Glad I did Today...

Great work Guys...
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #1,414
  • Jun 27, 2010 1:21am Jun 27, 2010 1:21am
Quoting Raza
VERY nice..!!!

I dont Visit this Thread...

Glad I did Today...

Great work Guys...
You are very welcome to post here as well.
  • #1,415
  • Jun 27, 2010 1:24am Jun 27, 2010 1:24am
Quoting TheLastCoke
NP, You are very welcome to post here as well.
I will start to...share .. My good ..bad and Ugly ..Charts...

When I see Things Developing...

I have not gone thru the whole Thread...May I ask What Currencies you guys are mainly Focussed on...or is it anything...?
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #1,416
  • Jun 27, 2010 1:27am Jun 27, 2010 1:27am
Quoting Raza
I will start to...share .. My good ..bad and Ugly ..Charts...

When I see Things Developing...

I have not gone thru the whole Thread...May I ask What Currencies you guys are mainly Focussed on...or is it anything...?
I trade anything that moves but I prefer EUR/USD and respect GBP/JPY.
  • #1,417
  • Jun 27, 2010 2:34am Jun 27, 2010 2:34am
Quoting TheLastCoke
In this case it is a broadening top, a reversal pattern and this is the right count for it:

Attachment

Some may say so(broadening top), but in EW it is considered a continuation pattern. The truth is the probability of an upward breakout is %49.6.

Here is an example in A/U
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,418
  • Jun 27, 2010 6:08am Jun 27, 2010 6:08am
Quoting TheLastCoke
The way I do is very simple, If the pattern is with the trend I aim T1 at 38% and T2 at 61% of CD. If pattern is against the trend I look for T1 at 23% and maybe 38%.

Hope this helps.
Yes it did help, thank you. Here is one notion I have for the GU.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,419
  • Jun 27, 2010 11:53am Jun 27, 2010 11:53am
Quoting TheLastCoke
Gonna try it again at this TL.

Attachment
I'll short it to there.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCHF.png Size: 48 KB
Every time you use 'hopium' in a post, God kills a kitten.
  • #1,420
  • Jun 27, 2010 11:58am Jun 27, 2010 11:58am
Quoting Raza
I will start to...share .. My good ..bad and Ugly ..Charts...

When I see Things Developing...

I have not gone thru the whole Thread...May I ask What Currencies you guys are mainly Focussed on...or is it anything...?
And me.. I trade anything... except for the damned AUDNZD.
Every time you use 'hopium' in a post, God kills a kitten.
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