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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #67,481
  • Jun 26, 2010 6:59am Jun 26, 2010 6:59am
Quoting jarroo
The Gbp/Usd small PB.

What a great location . . . BRN, 1.5000, PPZ level, 61.8 fib level, . . its what we look for when searching for great locations. Now all we need is a great bar. We don't get a great bar, we get a small PB instead. Half of the equation is incomplete. Bad bar at a great location,...
Jarroo,

Very good analysis, but even more difficult to play if one decides to have go at it for the following reason:-
Daily PB low 1.4914. If we give a gap of 10 pips to ensure that PB is broken then we should be placing a sell stop at 1.4904 and that is selling into a RN 1.4900. So the sell stop is placed at 1.4894. (Is this strategy for entering close to RN correct to ensure one is not trading straight into a RN)
The FTA marked in your chart is too close to my entry and my FTA would be the 50% Fib level 1.4865 to previous bar highs around 1.4850 as there is always a likelyhood that PA will bounce off this level. the 2nd Traget would be 1.4820 which never got hit in this case.
All is all this trade required a swift Take profit action or moving SL to entry level to ensure BE trade.

Cheers
Novice 198
  • #67,482
  • Jun 26, 2010 7:01am Jun 26, 2010 7:01am
this pinbar in the gbp/usd with 1.50 and 61% fib didnīt work.coul you explain me this?thank you
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  • #67,483
  • Jun 26, 2010 7:25am Jun 26, 2010 7:25am
Waiting for a good PA at the elipse zone on the attached chart. Any comments??

Cheers
Novice 198
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  • #67,484
  • Jun 26, 2010 8:17am Jun 26, 2010 8:17am
Quoting jarroo
The Gbp/Usd small PB.

What a great location . . . BRN, 1.5000, PPZ level, 61.8 fib level, . . its what we look for when searching for great locations. Now all we need is a great bar. We don't get a great bar, we get a small PB instead. Half of the equation is incomplete. Bad bar at a great location,...
Great post, it's very useful to see how you disect the charts, your use of price action and support/resistance for exits.

What I struggle with is getting my head round the risk v reward. This may because i'm assuming you had a stop above the high of the daily bar. I appreciate as well this would not be regarded as an A+ setup so this maybe why your exits are more aggressive?

Thx
  • #67,485
  • Jun 26, 2010 8:38am Jun 26, 2010 8:38am
Quoting Javi
this pinbar in the gbp/usd with 1.50 and 61% fib didnīt work.coul you explain me this?thank you
Sure Javi, here is how I see it bro:

Location Coming From: Was good, however I reckon your fibonacci should have been drawn from the swing high seven candles back, that's where I have mine and I have seen all others drawn from this point. that raises up the .61 level to 1.5026 on my chart . . . Not a major point but significant nonetheless.

Price Action: Was poor, was really really small, I don't have that four hour close but it looks to be the smallest candle in terms of high and low in the vast majority of previous candles. Just a really small bar. For me that automatically makes a pass, if I was playing it I would be watching it like a hawk at the first PPZ, also no way would take a full bar loss on it.

Location Going To: The pinbar gets stopped at basically the first PPZ, as expected. It got stopped at the PPZ and Daily trendline confluence.

All in all that bar was a success, and did what was expected, especially considering the bad bar size, it was at a great location though.




I will explain in relation to a trade I took yesterday. (All my PPZ and lines are pre-drawn before I ever take any trades)



Chart: 1HR GBP/USD

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Location Coming From: Pierced by big round number, swing high. A+ location in my book. There was consolidation going on before hand.

Price Action: Huge BEOB, is a BEOB of the candles before it. The only thing it had going against it was that it was a bit late in the trading day but I personally don't mind that.

Location Going To: Has space to move into before reaching 1RR, I would TP at the first PPZ and daily trendline confluence area.

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Short @ 1.4951 (Bar low minus one)
SL @ 1.5009 (Bar high plus one, other side of the 1.5000 level, extremely important in terms of stop protection)
TP @ 1.48920 (Just before the TL and PPZ confluence)



The difference between the 1HR setup and the 4HR setup was the bar quality of the 1HR setup was way better.

The 4HR setup for me was an automatic pass because of the poor bar size, not to say a person couldn't make cash trading it. It went to 1RR.



Here was a chart posted by Rosentrade of a trade he took, again the difference between the 4HR chart you posted and this one is that the bar is just so big in this one, makes it a way better setup than the small 4HR bar.

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Bar size was just so good on this one it makes it a way higher probability trade than the small bar trade.


Just some thoughts, hope I explained my point of view adequately,
Jig.
  • #67,486
  • Jun 26, 2010 8:48am Jun 26, 2010 8:48am
Quoting Javi
this pinbar in the gbp/usd with 1.50 and 61% fib didnīt work.coul you explain me this?thank you
Hey Javi

And to show you the daily perspective this one worked and then some. This was a super super super tiny bar. If you are new to the j16 stuff I would ignore these day in and out till you can trade the bigger bars(and I still would ignore them personally). Make sure to zoom your charts out or this bar is going to appear bigger and more important then it is. Notice all the bar highs under it that it went too. If you ar egoing to play bars of this size your stop needs to go to b/e ASAP.

Hope that helps
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  • #67,487
  • Jun 26, 2010 8:50am Jun 26, 2010 8:50am
Im planning on going long on AUD/CHF. 23.6% retracement, Nice round number 0.9500. Got a bit of a squeeze going on.
Views appreciated.

Pipage
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  • #67,488
  • Jun 26, 2010 9:01am Jun 26, 2010 9:01am
Appreciate your thoughts

Quoting ghous
First I would second Mike that it really is just an Indecision bar, which may not be enough of an indication of momentum exhaustion.

Secondly what I see first hand on my chart is that this IPB/indecision bar is near that all important location rather than on it, which straight away makes the setup an invalid one for me.

The fibs also need to be off distinct and really obvious swings in the market than just a bar high which you used.

With all that in the mind the real confluence zone is still about 60 pips away from your bar high,

g.
  • #67,489
  • Jun 26, 2010 9:12am Jun 26, 2010 9:12am
Quoting Jigsaw


Just some thoughts, hope I explained my point of view adequately,
Jig.
Excellent justification....really liked seeing your analysis...someday I hope to be as good!
  • #67,490
  • Jun 26, 2010 5:49pm Jun 26, 2010 5:49pm
Quoting jarroo
Its a good rule of thumb on Outside Bars. Which is that they will retrace to their prievious bar High/Low.

Look at the Monthly Nzd/JPY.

Price is in a consolidation yet the BUOB and BEOB retrace back to their previous bar High or Low.
Excellent. Great to know.. Thank you Jarroo.
  • #67,491
  • Jun 26, 2010 6:52pm Jun 26, 2010 6:52pm
hi guys i am still trying to get true the thread but just saw this and was wondering if anyone had any thoughts on it eur/usd monthly for a long

pin bar into 50% retracement with a trend line so some confluence

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  • #67,492
  • Jun 26, 2010 6:56pm Jun 26, 2010 6:56pm
Quoting Atc
Jarroo,
Makes alot of sense....here is a trade I took yesterday 8h BEOB with the retrace that you talk about.
Thanks for pointing this out. I have also noticed this but needed to hear this.
Bill
Nice one Atc. Price hit its target(s) nicely. Well done.

Not sure where your Fib is coming from. Even at the most recent High and Low there a bit dodgy.

Its mainly . . . PA at a swing high . . . at a PPZ level (1.4200), the size looks good too.. Nice.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #67,493
  • Edited 7:11pm Jun 26, 2010 6:58pm | Edited 7:11pm
Jarroo

I have been thinking about the OB and the test of the previous bar high or low.

If the bar after the OB tests the high of the previous bar as in the chart below, then breaks the low, I imagine this is further confirmation that the OB is invalid.
I mean, in this scenario we have a BUOB which fails.

Thanks in advance and I hope you are having a great weekend.

PS: I didn't see you online while typing this so, I really just left this for you for Monday. No rush for an answer.
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  • #67,494
  • Jun 26, 2010 7:16pm Jun 26, 2010 7:16pm
Quoting Pinbar
Jarroo

I have been thinking about the OB and the test of the previous bar high or low.

If the bar after the OB tests the high of the previous bar as in the chart below, then breaks the low, I imagine this is further confirmation that the OB is invalid.
I mean, in this scenario we have a BUOB which fails.

Thanks in advance and I hope you are having a great weekend.

Yes, I would agree with that PB. Once the BUOB didn't respect the previous bar High I would say "something is going on here". Then when it broke the Low of the BUOB it would then be invalid and failed.

But we know what's going on here . .remember the 1.1143ish. . . its that PPZ level that's holding strong.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #67,495
  • Edited 7:56pm Jun 26, 2010 7:20pm | Edited 7:56pm
Pb . . What you think of this 2 Month BUOB on the Usd/Chf? Its now testing its previous bar high.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #67,496
  • Jun 26, 2010 7:38pm Jun 26, 2010 7:38pm
Quoting novice198
Jarroo,

Very good analysis, but even more difficult to play if one decides to have go at it for the following reason:-
Daily PB low 1.4914. If we give a gap of 10 pips to ensure that PB is broken then we should be placing a sell stop at 1.4904 and that is selling into a RN 1.4900. So the sell stop is placed at 1.4894. (Is this strategy for entering close to RN correct to ensure one is not trading straight into a RN)
The FTA marked in your chart is too close to my entry and my FTA would be the 50% Fib level 1.4865 to previous bar highs around 1.4850...

Very nice N198

You pointed out all of the traffic in this setup that made it an easy pass. Well done.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #67,497
  • Jun 26, 2010 7:51pm Jun 26, 2010 7:51pm
Quoting Dan-FX
Great post, it's very useful to see how you disect the charts, your use of price action and support/resistance for exits.

What I struggle with is getting my head round the risk v reward. This may because i'm assuming you had a stop above the high of the daily bar. I appreciate as well this would not be regarded as an A+ setup so this maybe why your exits are more aggressive?

Thx

That's exactly my point, Dan. Aggressive on the S/L and the Targets(exits). You have to be if you choose take situation #1 or situation #2.
As you grow in to this, you will only take situation #3 no matter how long it may take.

I'm not a big R:R guy . . . I'm a high quailty setup, clear target, well placed S/L kind of guy. If that makes sense.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #67,498
  • Jun 26, 2010 7:52pm Jun 26, 2010 7:52pm
Quoting jarroo
Pb . . What you think of this 2 Month BUOB on the Usd/Chf? Its now testing its previous bar high.
Thanks for the reply Jarroo.

Looking at it on the weekly, there seems to be some serious traffic just 45 pips or so below the PPZ.

That said, the monthly PPZ is probably going to be stronger than the weekly traffic but too scary for me at this moment in time.

What a WIMP. LoL

EDIT: Oh 2 month........Way out of my league.
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  • #67,499
  • Jun 26, 2010 7:57pm Jun 26, 2010 7:57pm
Quoting jarroo
That's exactly my point, Dan. Aggressive on the S/L and the Targets(exits). You have to be if you choose take situation #1 or situation #2.
As you grow in to this, you will only take situation #3 no matter how long it may take.

I'm not a big R:R guy . . . I'm a high quailty setup, clear target, well placed S/L kind of guy. If that makes sense.


Yes, I am thinking in this business the exits are perhaps a little more important than the entry. I can see person A & person B, A takes some off the table at FTA and leaves a little to run, B is greedy & leaves the whole deal in hoping it will be a runner and probably takes more losses than A with fewer runners because the draw down is too high.
Probably takes more SL hits also.
  • #67,500
  • Jun 26, 2010 8:04pm Jun 26, 2010 8:04pm
Quoting Pinbar
Yes, I am thinking in this business the exits are perhaps a little more important than the entry. I can see person A & person B, A takes some off the table at FTA and leaves a little to run, B is greedy & leaves the whole deal in hoping it will be a runner and probably takes more losses than A with fewer runners because the draw down is too high.
Probably takes more SL hits also.

Pb . .

Let's say you have two novice traders entering a trade at the same time, same pair. One enters long and the other enters short. Which one is profitable?
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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