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  • #12,721
  • Jun 24, 2010 4:19pm Jun 24, 2010 4:19pm
Quoting elitejets
EURGBP has bounced off a big weekly support level. I am waiting for price action at 85.00 or 85.50 to sell it again but I would not be surprised to see it run up to 87.70
Thank you.Very kind of you and informative.As you're one of the certified traders in here I am glad to hear your opinion.
  • #12,722
  • Jun 24, 2010 4:25pm Jun 24, 2010 4:25pm
Quoting kratun
Thank you.Very kind of you and informative.As you're one of the certified traders in here I am glad to hear your opinion.
No Problem. Today's daily candle was a bullish piercing line, so that's a warning of reversal for shorts.
  • #12,723
  • Edited 4:43pm Jun 24, 2010 4:29pm | Edited 4:43pm
anyone waiting for price action to sell (below 1.5) lots of fib ret too
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  • #12,724
  • Jun 24, 2010 4:30pm Jun 24, 2010 4:30pm
Will it be possible to register for a Path of Learning?I am very curious what this learning is.Iam eager to learn if I am given a chance of course.
  • #12,725
  • Edited 5:16pm Jun 24, 2010 4:48pm | Edited 5:16pm
Quoting Scotty2Cues
anyone waiting for price action to sell (below 1.5) lots of fib ret too
Yes, me.
Having said that it is a concern that cable has gone sideways while other currencies have fallen, showing strength.
Cable might be heading for this higher trendline (that I have made thicker in this chart) and 1.5250
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  • #12,726
  • Jun 24, 2010 5:39pm Jun 24, 2010 5:39pm
Quoting elitejets
Yes, me.
Having said that it is a concern that cable has gone sideways while other currencies have fallen, showing strength.
Cable might be heading for this higher trendline (that I have made thicker in this chart) and 1.5250
yeah that resistance line goes back to July 08. Although maybe the lower TL will now act as resisitance
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  • #12,727
  • Jun 24, 2010 5:57pm Jun 24, 2010 5:57pm
Quoting kratun
Will it be possible to register for a Path of Learning?I am very curious what this learning is.Iam eager to learn if I am given a chance of course.
The path begins at post #1 of this thread.
  • #12,728
  • Edited 6:27pm Jun 24, 2010 6:01pm | Edited 6:27pm
Quoting elitejets
Yes, me.
Having said that it is a concern that cable has gone sideways while other currencies have fallen, showing strength.
Cable might be heading for this higher trendline (that I have made thicker in this chart) and 1.5250
What about the PA around this trendline?

I entered short below the 1.4800 psycho SR line as a Dr Joe, "selling a downtrend, after a rally" (my words) style trade, and was stopped out.

I also considered the 21 June bar to be close enough to a SS to warrant consideration.

It may have been very significant that the UK tough budget was announced on 23 June and seems to have resulted in a one day rally in the GBP.

I am waiting for another Short entry.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #12,729
  • Jun 24, 2010 6:18pm Jun 24, 2010 6:18pm
I wouldn't short cable right now, short term is up price is above 50 which is very worring. I wouldn't be suprized to see it back to 1.500.It's Friday already so Iam staying out of the markets.Wish you luck whatever your decision is.
  • #12,730
  • Jun 24, 2010 6:40pm Jun 24, 2010 6:40pm
Quoting No1Optimist
What about the PA around this trendline?

I entered short below the 1.4800 psycho SR line as a Dr Joe, "selling a downtrend, after a rally" (my words) style trade, and was stopped out.

I also considered the 21 June bar to be close enough to a SS to warrant consideration.

It may have been very significant that the UK tough budget was announced on 23 June and seems to have resulted in a one day rally in the GBP.

I am waiting for another Short entry.
I have similar TL and as you can see there is another doggy SS close of 24th June. On 21st body of SS was too big. This pair is trending up since last one month not one day. Bank of England is split on interest rate increase and I think that is holding it up for the time being. Budget impact will be seen in twelve months time if there will be any positive or negative.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,731
  • Jun 24, 2010 6:57pm Jun 24, 2010 6:57pm
Quoting elitejets
Well I will give you a bit of sympathy because USDJPY has been a grinding and difficult trade of late. But I think you already know what your mistake was.

Is the fear of losing because you are using so much risk? If so make it smaller so it doesn't make you feel like that. Or take partial profits so you can let the rest trade according to your plan without that fear of losing.
Thank you for going easy on me! I'm sure Strat would have put me through the meat grinder. Yes I risked too much on that trade.
This should be a lesson to me, to not forget the most important part of the trade.
I appreciate your comments.
  • #12,732
  • Jun 24, 2010 8:23pm Jun 24, 2010 8:23pm
Quoting simpleman
I have similar TL and as you can see there is another doggy SS close of 24th June. On 21st body of SS was too big. This pair is trending up since last one month not one day. Bank of England is split on interest rate increase and I think that is holding it up for the time being. Budget impact will be seen in twelve months time if there will be any positive or negative.
I did not say that the bar on 21 June was an SS, but it was close enough from my point of view.

Additionally, on 21 June there was Fib confluence at 50%, and also SR at Psycho 1.4800.

The Boss chart MAs both down, PROBABLY making a LH before continuing downwards.

Risk was kept to below an acceptable 2% of account
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #12,733
  • Jun 25, 2010 12:47am Jun 25, 2010 12:47am
Quoting No1Optimist
I did not say that the bar on 21 June was an SS, but it was close enough from my point of view.
Hi No.1Optimist,

I have a stop order below yesterday's SS; not yet triggered.
21st June candle on my chart has a body bigger than the upper shadow. Aren't you stretching it a bit?

Cheers
  • #12,734
  • Jun 25, 2010 3:14am Jun 25, 2010 3:14am
Quoting simpleman
I have similar TL and as you can see there is another doggy SS close of 24th June. On 21st body of SS was too big. This pair is trending up since last one month not one day. Bank of England is split on interest rate increase and I think that is holding it up for the time being. Budget impact will be seen in twelve months time if there will be any positive or negative.
think I heard the budget was good for the pound. Although this morning on BBC radio4 they were saying banks were still tied alot to Euro crisis which is bad for pound?
  • #12,735
  • Jun 25, 2010 3:25am Jun 25, 2010 3:25am
Quoting Raje$h
Hi No.1Optimist,

I have a stop order below yesterday's SS; not yet triggered.
21st June candle on my chart has a body bigger than the upper shadow. Aren't you stretching it a bit?

Cheers
Thanks for the response.

Attached is an enlarged view. The bar on the extreme right is, the bar for 21 June.

in my opinion the bar is close enough to being an SS, when considered together with the rejection of the trendline, the Fib confluence, coupled with Boss direction and an entry below an important Psycho SR line at 1.4800.

If I remember correctly, Strat has stressed a few times that Psycho levels are quite important on GBPUSD

Don't you think there is the possibility to be too pedantic about exact candle definitions?

The bar in question is at the top of a rising counter trend, I have not measured the exact length of the upper wick in relation to the body, so if not a pure SS it is pretty close.

The trade was going nicely until the UK budget was announced, then went into reverse.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 21 june ss.jpg Size: 140 KB
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #12,736
  • Jun 25, 2010 3:30am Jun 25, 2010 3:30am
Quoting Scotty2Cues
think I heard the budget was good for the pound. Although this morning on BBC radio4 they were saying banks were still tied alot to Euro crisis which is bad for pound?
What I know is US Democrats are in favour of strong dollar and dollar has got stronger. British Conservatives are in favour of strong pound and we will see what happens to it may be it won't.
  • #12,737
  • Jun 25, 2010 4:07am Jun 25, 2010 4:07am
Quoting No1Optimist
Thanks for the response.


Don't you think there is the possibility to be too pedantic about exact candle definitions?

The bar in question is at the top of a rising counter trend, I have not measured the exact length of the upper wick in relation to the body, so if not a pure SS it is pretty close.

The trade was going nicely until the UK budget was announced, then went into reverse.
Yes, I see now what you saw.
On my chart it is a bit different. See attached. I have put an arrow on the 21st June candle.

My trade is now triggered at 1.4913. How do you think it will work out?
Cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,738
  • Jun 25, 2010 5:11am Jun 25, 2010 5:11am
Quoting Raje$h
Yes, I see now what you saw.
On my chart it is a bit different. See attached. I have put an arrow on the 21st June candle.

My trade is now triggered at 1.4913. How do you think it will work out?
Cheers
lookin good. maybe the buyers of gbp are now selling up as its friday and the G meeting at the weekend? What was your SL?
  • #12,739
  • Jun 25, 2010 6:21am Jun 25, 2010 6:21am
i alway trade with a lose i want u to kindly help me with the swing so that i can get an information before trading somebody help me pls


Quoting strat
Dave, many people get swings wrong because they are not using CONFIRMED swings. Unless a swing is CONFIRMED it is not valid and is about as much use as a crack in a glass eye!...
  • #12,740
  • Jun 25, 2010 7:52am Jun 25, 2010 7:52am
I see that many of you give reasons to short this pair.Personally ,I have some reasons to not short it yet.The 06.21 candle touches TL1 ,rejected and finds S at 20.Buyers push up the price and broke TL1 in 06.23 till RN(1.50),find R at RN and Weekly 20 where the sellers forms SS in 06.24.Today(not closed yet) the price retest TL1 and rejected by TL1 and 50.In my opinion is early to short it,even because Monthly doesn't agree with Weekly,and I will wait to see some PA at 1.52(R+TL2).Thanks.
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My humble opinion.
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