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Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

  • #4,381
  • Jun 23, 2010 7:10pm Jun 23, 2010 7:10pm
Quoting atton
Hi Saxon. I saw that in your first posts you are using some volume indicator. Do you still use it ?
No, it was called better volumes, but I don't look at volumes in Forex anymore. For me, you can get a guage of volumes on time of day, trading session, candle close. Volume indicators never did me any good
  • #4,382
  • Jun 23, 2010 7:11pm Jun 23, 2010 7:11pm
Quoting Saxon
PA almost to my GU target
I'll take this one with you for sure. What is your RR? 25 S/L 25 TP?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #4,383
  • Jun 23, 2010 7:18pm Jun 23, 2010 7:18pm
Quoting MarcVUM
I can't figure this one out... thoughts from anyone are welcome.

The Fed leaves rates unchanged which means U.S. money is cheap which would drive the usd down and the aud up. But the U.S. economy is in the dumps and the S&P should sell off which would send the A/U down. But finally gold continues higher regardless of the news (good or bad).

Where does A/U go fundamentally?
I can't really help on the AU, but I was expecting the DJIA to bounce around 10,270, which happened, but the topside was constrained by the 200dma (which I believe is very popular for index traders----self-fulfilling), so I think tomorrow or the next day we'll see some good indication of which direction the market (in general) wants to go.

Since the AU positively correlates to US indexes, maybe some answers will be forthcoming.

I'm also looking at gold, which is currently processing a 4H B-fly. It has bounced at the first target, and often this is a far as they go. Should it continue southward I'll be watching the pink area's on the chart for a long, because I think a rate raise was supposedly priced-in, and low rates historically have been bullish for gold, so without a rate raise, I think there's some good upside potential.

http://i45.tinypic.com/muk7d4.png
  • #4,384
  • Jun 23, 2010 7:19pm Jun 23, 2010 7:19pm
Quoting MarcVUM
I'll take this one with you for sure. What is your RR? 25 S/L 25 TP?
Sorry for the messy charts
I will probably be booking 2-3 positions. But it depends if PA can make a run at it now, or swings again before hitting it. I would like it to make a run now and hit while it is exhausted. Look at RSI. Also would be striking at old UTL confluence
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  • #4,385
  • Jun 23, 2010 7:24pm Jun 23, 2010 7:24pm
Quoting Saxon
Sorry for the messy charts
I will probably be booking 2-3 positions. But it depends if PA can make a run at it now, or swings again before hitting it. I would like it to make a run now and hit while it is exhausted. Look at RSI. Also would be striking at old UTL confluence
Is that 61.8 Fib at 1.5020 on your chart?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #4,386
  • Jun 23, 2010 7:26pm Jun 23, 2010 7:26pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Is that 61.8 Fib at 1.5020 on your chart?
~5025
  • #4,387
  • Jun 23, 2010 7:27pm Jun 23, 2010 7:27pm
Hi Saxon,

and felow friends

Here i got some cot charts both look intresting the nzd/usd the most this could be a runner for some time guys!
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  • #4,388
  • Jun 23, 2010 7:37pm Jun 23, 2010 7:37pm
Ooh yes the charts posted above keep in mind they are weekly and daily it gives you a view what the big guys are thinking i keep them updated here.

Here saxon your gbp i see also countertrade opportunity..
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  • #4,389
  • Jun 23, 2010 7:44pm Jun 23, 2010 7:44pm
Looking at this level on EU too
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  • #4,390
  • Jun 23, 2010 7:44pm Jun 23, 2010 7:44pm
Quoting ingmarforex
Ooh yes the charts posted above keep in mind they are weekly and daily it gives you a view what the big guys are thinking i keep them updated here.

Here saxon your gbp i see also countertrade opportunity..
Should be a good one, been waiting for a long time for it
  • #4,391
  • Jun 23, 2010 7:52pm Jun 23, 2010 7:52pm
Another perspective on EU, should be good for a few as well, something to trade before high targets
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  • #4,392
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:08pm Jun 23, 2010 8:08pm
Have my GU Sell @ 1.5 SL 1.5070
  • #4,393
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:12pm Jun 23, 2010 8:12pm
EU small sell @ 1.2350 manual stop and TP
EU medium sell @ 1.2365, 17 pip SL manual TP
EU medium sell @ 1.2400, 20 pip SL manual TP
EU medium sell @ 1.2464, 26 pip SL manual TP
  • #4,394
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:17pm Jun 23, 2010 8:17pm
Quoting Saxon
Have my GU Sell @ 1.5 SL 1.5070
Saxon,

Forgive my newbie question. I would think that there are huge amounts of sells pending at 1.50 judging by other GU threads. How will that effect the PA?
  • #4,395
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:18pm Jun 23, 2010 8:18pm
Quoting Saxon
Have my GU Sell @ 1.5 SL 1.5070
I'm setting higher at 1.5040.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #4,396
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:19pm Jun 23, 2010 8:19pm
Going to Vegas on Friday. Going to play some roulette and black jack. With forex I think I have like a 70-85% chance of winning. Isn't the best odds at any game in Vegas like 47%. I'll make sure to have some tight stops
First vacation in 5 years. Not even a vacation, only going for two days to meet up with a friend from New Zealand. Going to give him a ribbing about his currency value
  • #4,397
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:30pm Jun 23, 2010 8:30pm
Quoting langdonb
Saxon,

Forgive my newbie question. I would think that there are huge amounts of sells pending at 1.50 judging by other GU threads. How will that effect the PA?
Well, you would expect PA to drop. But it might continue to the previous swings like 50 pips higher. Either way, I think it will find enough friction to find it's way back down. I set my stop above the previous swings, so I should be ok to take a 40-60 pip hit. Who knows though, "00" 1.5 could be a brick wall (probably not though). If PA breaks through 1.5 and starts to show signs of turning somewhere between 1.5-1.5060, I will add to my shorts. However, be aware of the condition of the PA hit on "00" 1.5. If it happens now, then I bet we see a drop since PA is looking tired. If PA swings down and builds momentum, it could blow though 20-50 pips. If it hits at London, I would be cautious of 1.5's strength. If it hits on an H1 or H4 close, I would watch PA close to see how 1.5 will hold. It is very subjective to many variables. Overall I feel confident in it's significance and think it wont get past 1.5060. But don't trust my judgement. Do some analysis and if you come to the same conclusion, then you can make a judgement call then. When starting out, it seems really easy to just trade what other people are telling you, but there is no value in that and you will lose in the long run. Spend the next hour or so going through scenarios and running your charts. Only trade if your analysis agrees. If not, then don't. If you are not done with your analysis when PA hits, then don't trade. If you have any questions or need some advice/suggestions, feel free to post them here or PM me, I am more than happy to help Good luck to you and welcome to the thread. I hope we can learn a lot from each other
  • #4,398
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:33pm Jun 23, 2010 8:33pm
Quoting Saxon
Well, you would expect PA to drop. But it might continue to the previous swings like 50 pips higher. Either way, I think it will find enough friction to find it's way back down. I set my stop above the previous swings, so I should be ok to take a 40-60 pip hit. Who knows though, "00" 1.5 could be a brick wall (probably not though). If PA breaks through 1.5 and starts to show signs of turning somewhere between 1.5-1.5060, I will add to my shorts. However, be aware of the condition of the PA hit on "00" 1.5. If it happens now, then I bet we see...
Sorry, one last thing. I am passionate about PA angle. So the angle of the attack on S/R. If PA gets to target and is puttering around it and going in and out of it a few pips, then I don't usually trade. If PA is really steep and candles are getting smaller, I like to trade, If PA is steep on just one massive candle, be weary.
  • #4,399
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:34pm Jun 23, 2010 8:34pm
Looks like pa is gonna be crappy until london. Boo
Annoying Precision
  • #4,400
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:38pm Jun 23, 2010 8:38pm
Quoting erikte279
Looks like pa is gonna be crappy until london. Boo
Looks that way. If PA doesn't strike in the next few hours I am going to take off my limit and wait and pull the trigger manually. The small EU targets should be some good "manual trigger trades". Ya, if PA gets there +/- 1 hr on London open I wont take it
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