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Fibonacci Paradise

  • #881
  • Jun 23, 2010 2:35am Jun 23, 2010 2:35am
Morning. First of all I have to give credit to Bartstop for pointing this fib out to me yesterday. I missed this but have been long cable on a smaller fib. Happy to say I took profit this morning.

This in my opinion is a perfect setup. 61 to pierce to 50. You can enter on the break of the respecting 50 candle (or if you are more aggressive drop to a lower timeframe for a smaller candle) or wait for the zero pierce. I put a couple of targets on here being previous resistance levels (pay attention to Thom) and of course ultimately the 138.

Come on England!!!!!!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable230610.png Size: 24 KB


MD.
Keep smiling
  • #882
  • Jun 23, 2010 10:36am Jun 23, 2010 10:36am
Quoting ThomKnight
Md,
I am going to walk through a trade I took using a standard fib tool.

So we never trade mkt open... but sometimes we do.. chuckle i was just tracking this... I expected the "gap" to fill.So after that price action i fitted my 61.8 to it.. and it was violent...indicating it had some pretty good legs.. I notcied a nice Tl and took the tl break into the target I "knew" it was going to pierce from the price action and I was relatively sure it would blow through near term resistance with that momentum. I didnt use a stop I just watched it complete....
number two bit this trade if you went with a tight tight stop.. but of course it worked overall.
  • #883
  • Jun 23, 2010 10:44am Jun 23, 2010 10:44am
Quoting Misterdaz
Thom, I mean my stop got hit. A couple of trades I called right but my stop got hit to a pip then reversed to my target. I think on a straight 61 to 50 setup the stop needs to be below the 61, it will degrade RR slightly but that is the last true swing low point per that fib pairing. Yes I have allowed for spread etc. The others I just called the direction wrong. That's the hardest thing with this stuff, getting the direction right, it's not always obvious. I've not been aiming for the 138 either, with a stop of 10 pips that becomes unnecessary....
here is what why and where testing helps you...if you set ups do not lose... but your stops do... welll what does that tell you...
what are the implication for RR...

I have a set up that works everytime.. or say 9/10 times but... I biff it because my stop it all wonky...

If this is the case for you... you can use martingale and still kill it. I beilieve this statment to be true.. :
" Improper stop losses are one if not the #1 killer of new traders" .

I understand risk reward is a real concern and losing is also one.

Also yes the 61.8 to pierce to 5o and turn is awesome... but it will sometimes retraces bck past your 50 hit.


TK
  • #884
  • Jun 23, 2010 10:51am Jun 23, 2010 10:51am
Pretty simple and depending on how you look at it.. already triggered and finished the retrace phase...I wouldn't have too many issue at all entering right now.. but this fib won't give you that info.. unless you look at it lik a swing fib.

TK
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gy.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #885
  • Jun 23, 2010 11:06am Jun 23, 2010 11:06am
Quoting ThomKnight
here is what why and where testing helps you...if you set ups do not lose... but your stops do... welll what does that tell you...
what are the implication for RR...

I have a set up that works everytime.. or say 9/10 times but... I biff it because my stop it all wonky...

If this is the case for you... you can use martingale and still kill it. I beilieve this statment to be true.. :
" Improper stop losses are one if not the #1 killer of new traders" .

I understand risk reward is a real concern and losing is also one.

Also yes the...
Yep, I know the taking the break of the 50 candle sometimes fails, that's ok as the RR on those is well worth the try.

Nice to see England start playing at last and, the yanks got through BarTstop, Checkz, where are you boys? You must be pleased. I suppose soccer isn't a big deal out there.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #886
  • Jun 23, 2010 11:11am Jun 23, 2010 11:11am
Quoting ThomKnight
Pretty simple and depending on how you look at it.. already triggered and finished the retrace phase...I wouldn't have too many issue at all entering right now.. but this fib won't give you that info.. unless you look at it lik a swing fib.

TK
Thom, I see the swing setup. Would your stop be at the base, the 100 line or under the 61?

MD.

EDIT: There's a swing on cable too on the hour.
Keep smiling
  • #887
  • Jun 23, 2010 11:46am Jun 23, 2010 11:46am
Quoting Misterdaz
Thom, I see the swing setup. Would your stop be at the base, the 100 line or under the 61?

MD.

EDIT: There's a swing on cable too on the hour.
for that gy move... I would be very cross if it broke 133.69. I was watching the USA game in a cafe and people went completely bonkers about it. Hopefully footie picks up steam in the USA on the back on an ace performance by team USA.

TK
  • #888
  • Jun 23, 2010 11:55am Jun 23, 2010 11:55am
Md,

This is a pretty simple view of GU at the moment.. a little bit of fiddling was involved to be fair, but she is lining up nicely. I suppose my main concern would be looking to take this past the blue target as I would be decently concerned for a retrace , but we will see.

TK
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #889
  • Jun 23, 2010 12:01pm Jun 23, 2010 12:01pm
Here is what I am looking at on GY using two 61.8 fibs. The blue fib using the base 61.8 of the triggered black fib describes ( to me) what is happening currently in price and has a target set off of the blue... will it go to black on this move... perhaps.

TK
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gy1.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #890
  • Jun 23, 2010 12:13pm Jun 23, 2010 12:13pm
this is just for an example but this is what happen on a larger level to get us where we are.. and I think is bang up on why trading larger targets can be a big mess sometimes and following price works quite well for me. That last blue is up for debate but zooming in it makes sense and price action supports along with overall direction. It doesnt always work out this cleanly , but it is nice when it does.

TK
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gy1.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gy2.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #891
  • Jun 23, 2010 12:49pm Jun 23, 2010 12:49pm
Thom, I'll study your charts later after I make the kids their dinner. I've taken a long cable as well as GY (I like that setup Thom and I understand it). My cable trade is a swing fib. I'm a bit naughty here as it is not pierced and I have jumped the gun but my gamble is GY is going up and cable should move with it. We have momentum, at the moment.

The yanks have a tidy side and they know where the net is. Good stuff!

Attached Image


MD.
Keep smiling
  • #892
  • Jun 23, 2010 3:50pm Jun 23, 2010 3:50pm
Thom. I was happy with my cable trade it took target. My GY I set a target at the previous highs of 134.83. I see it came up short while I was having my dinner, could have had 50 pts, never mind.

My take on the cable 4h throws up this fib.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu230610a.JPG Size: 96 KB


MD.
Keep smiling
  • #893
  • Jun 23, 2010 4:59pm Jun 23, 2010 4:59pm
Thom, here's my version of your GY 1 hour. I have the same black fib as you but your blue fib does not line up with my data very well at all. I have placed an alternate fib from the same 61 anchor. This gives a further target. If Iam right also then your target will be taken on the way to mine.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gy230610.JPG Size: 114 KB


MD.
Keep smiling
  • #894
  • Jun 23, 2010 5:22pm Jun 23, 2010 5:22pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Thom, here's my version of your GY 1 hour. I have the same black fib as you but your blue fib does not line up with my data very well at all. I have placed an alternate fib from the same 61 anchor. This gives a further target. If Iam right also then your target will be taken on the way to mine.

Attachment

MD.
Yes technically both yours and mine woulld be on the chart my blue just describe price now so I chose it
  • #895
  • Jun 24, 2010 10:04am Jun 24, 2010 10:04am
Fun and games on GY today eh Thom? I'm long and in denial.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #896
  • Edited 11:29am Jun 24, 2010 10:56am | Edited 11:29am
Quoting Misterdaz
Fun and games on GY today eh Thom? I'm long and in denial.

MD.
Denial? you will get the hang of this MD


EDIT: I realized that was a pointless post chuckle.. what i meant was you will now when say you are in a long and a short sets up in your long.. to exit and go short to that target then look to resume your long if you are actively trading etc..
  • #897
  • Jun 24, 2010 11:46am Jun 24, 2010 11:46am
I've tried buying gy 3 times today when I've found fibs looking short. I've undone all my good work from yesterday. No good being stubborn in this game.

Still a lot to learn I think.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #898
  • Jun 25, 2010 1:03pm Jun 25, 2010 1:03pm
FRUSTRATION! Oh well, I ended up with +70.


Bartstop
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  • #899
  • Jun 25, 2010 5:47pm Jun 25, 2010 5:47pm
This might have been done before chaps but I re jigged a fib so that one of the anchors is a 138.2. It may come in handy, here's the levels.

-0.27641 = -138.2
0 = 0
0.27641 = 38.2
0.36179 = 50
0.447178 = 61.8
0.72358 = 100
1 = 138.2

Have a good weekend all, MD.
Keep smiling
  • #900
  • Jun 26, 2010 4:02pm Jun 26, 2010 4:02pm
MD,

mate, did you catch Gy on the turn on friday? If you were trading that was a stellar buy op. since it retraced to basically the zero and double bottomed out. I hate when that happens if i am holding, but love it if i am watching.

TK
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