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Fibonacci Paradise

  • #861
  • Jun 16, 2010 5:08pm Jun 16, 2010 5:08pm
Just my take but longs taking a rest for now on cable.

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MD.
Keep smiling
  • #862
  • Jun 16, 2010 9:33pm Jun 16, 2010 9:33pm
G'morn

On hols with the fam this week I trust you chaps are doing well.
I am punting this week but an eye peeled has us on track eh? I am going to tuck into some breakkie. The reason I trade 1 hour or candles is because if you put some weight behind your heft... time is an issue. I tracked some old trades and 120 hours etc.. so my thought on a foggyhead morning is.. 20 pips ticks cars etc it is only a function of leverage or money we want.

Let the 700 tick moves go they are whippy. Take the 15 tick moves..it is not because you don't know what is going on but why. I am going to go murder some crab and eggs.
  • #863
  • Jun 16, 2010 11:13pm Jun 16, 2010 11:13pm
Quoting Eggster
Skong & MrD

Always be aware of the larger Time Frames.(TF)

See how Mr.daz first chart target lines up with this.

Reaching for the 113.31 is reffered to as stop hunting or a fake out, really only needed to touch a target.(respect a fib)

I am not saying it won't reach the long target, but that you should be aware of what you are trading into, and possible reversal zones.(PRZ)
Thanks!

skong
  • #864
  • Jun 17, 2010 1:21am Jun 17, 2010 1:21am
Yea... saw the first half and went to bed, heard the good news in the morning.
  • #865
  • Jun 21, 2010 2:40am Jun 21, 2010 2:40am
Been a bit quiet around here here. I must admit I have been off on a tangent trying to break the bank.

Thom, if you are watching I'm posting a 4h chart of cable, not to trade! More for reassurance that I am looking at things in the correct way as I seem to have lost my sea legs again.

Would this be the right spot for the 4h fib assuming we are looking long?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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MD.
Keep smiling
  • #866
  • Jun 21, 2010 10:53am Jun 21, 2010 10:53am
85 pips Profit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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  • #867
  • Jun 21, 2010 11:09am Jun 21, 2010 11:09am
Quoting Checkz
85 pips Profit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I think you are going to have to start giving me lessons.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #868
  • Jun 21, 2010 12:19pm Jun 21, 2010 12:19pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Been a bit quiet around here here. I must admit I have been off on a tangent trying to break the bank.

Thom, if you are watching I'm posting a 4h chart of cable, not to trade! More for reassurance that I am looking at things in the correct way as I seem to have lost my sea legs again.

Would this be the right spot for the 4h fib assuming we are looking long?

Attachment

MD.
Mate, I am late to the party but unless and since this is quite possible since it seems so daft we are long for thousands . But yes that fib is the first move and pierce. While I am here I recall a post about you getting all mixed up what is going on? I find higher time frame fibs are not soooo much needed unless they are. For you if you stick to one hour it will be clean and simple or should be also I have noticed you posting targets hit to the tick saying closed out etc... that is not true per se just means that move stopped there could reverse for 10 or 100etc.. but if you get a short signal from one of those take it. Let me know what else is going on and well see if we can shed a light
  • #869
  • Jun 21, 2010 12:39pm Jun 21, 2010 12:39pm
Thom, a quick question. I've been using ForexTester looking for 61-50 pairings. One thing I've noticed is when price is trending up then we get a swift move down to support (50) it tends to move back up just as swiftly as it came down. Does the speed and severity of the rejection have any influence on your trade decisions?


Bartstop
  • #870
  • Jun 21, 2010 1:03pm Jun 21, 2010 1:03pm
Quoting bartstop
Thom, a quick question. I've been using ForexTester looking for 61-50 pairings. One thing I've noticed is when price is trending up then we get a swift move down to support (50) it tends to move back up just as swiftly as it came down. Does the speed and severity of the rejection have any influence on your trade decisions?


Bartstop
Nope well sometimes if I feel it will be a faster move I might load up..why price does that is because it is completing some fib cycle then snapping back to its overall target. If the fib is triggered is the only thing I care about for setting targets. Taking trades is based on fib sr on the triggered fib or a smaller fib in the triggered fib
  • #871
  • Jun 21, 2010 1:26pm Jun 21, 2010 1:26pm
Quoting ThomKnight
Nope well sometimes if I feel it will be a faster move I might load up..why price does that is because it is completing some fib cycle then snapping back to its overall target. If the fib is triggered is the only thing I care about for setting targets. Taking trades is based on fib sr on the triggered fib or a smaller fib in the triggered fib
Got it, thanks Thom.
  • #872
  • Jun 21, 2010 4:51pm Jun 21, 2010 4:51pm
here are two view on GU right now..personally i would be expecting somesort of retrace

TK
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  • #873
  • Jun 21, 2010 5:09pm Jun 21, 2010 5:09pm
Quoting ThomKnight
Mate, I am late to the party but unless and since this is quite possible since it seems so daft we are long for thousands . But yes that fib is the first move and pierce. While I am here I recall a post about you getting all mixed up what is going on? I find higher time frame fibs are not soooo much needed unless they are. For you if you stick to one hour it will be clean and simple or should be also I have noticed you posting targets hit to the tick saying closed out etc... that is not true per se just means that move stopped there could reverse...
Did you have another nice holiday?

Yes I have put a couple of long term charts up but that was only to keep an eye on possible short term reversals, I am not trading larger timeframe charts, only 1 hour.

Yes I have got myself a bit wound up, I have a habit of tinkering with things and going off at tangents. You see I have been trying to improve risk reward, yes I know if the fib is on there is no risk but I still struggle with that "acceptance".

In order to increases risk reward (humour me) I have been looking for 61.8 to 50 pairings and taking the break of the respecting 50 candle on a 15min with a tight stop below. I have been ignoring pierces and whether the 61 is now or in the past. I've lost 5 in a row, only small risk and also bolstered by a couple of earlier good winners but it kinda batters the old confidence and instills doubt. I probably should be only doing this on 61 pierce 50 candles. I'll try anything once.

Still at least England are playing well.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #874
  • Jun 21, 2010 6:18pm Jun 21, 2010 6:18pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Did you have another nice holiday?

Yes I have put a couple of long term charts up but that was only to keep an eye on possible short term reversals, I am not trading larger timeframe charts, only 1 hour.

Yes I have got myself a bit wound up, I have a habit of tinkering with things and going off at tangents. You see I have been trying to improve risk reward, yes I know if the fib is on there is no risk but I still struggle with that "acceptance".

In order to increases risk reward (humour me) I have been looking for 61.8 to 50 pairings and...
No worries mate I hear you. the biggest issue and one of the reasons i almost scrapped fibs.. was because the RR was piss poor. I could take break out trades all day long and just murder the market. ...then i got lazy when i didnt feel the need to make a killing on every trade and i would enter on pierces lightly then if it retraced and hit the fib again enter again.

there are some tweaks and tricks you can use to help the rr but i think the first step bfore..( and I think you are here) trading these.. are getting fibs you know are working... then ( I think) you can figure out how to trade them better. When I wasnt sure my fibs would work or not.. every entry was literally terrifying...and I know how to trade. I couldn;t see the value of fibs over PASR trading with a 14,3,3 stoch on it.

when you say you lost.. do you mean your fib didn't work or your stop got hit?

Tk
  • #875
  • Jun 21, 2010 6:31pm Jun 21, 2010 6:31pm
Md,
I am going to walk through a trade I took using a standard fib tool.

So we never trade mkt open... but sometimes we do.. chuckle i was just tracking this... I expected the "gap" to fill.So after that price action i fitted my 61.8 to it.. and it was violent...indicating it had some pretty good legs.. I notcied a nice Tl and took the tl break into the target I "knew" it was going to pierce from the price action and I was relatively sure it would blow through near term resistance with that momentum. I didnt use a stop I just watched it complete. If you were to use a stop the most obvious on this time frame is the bottomg of the 61.8 candle.

It is the first pull back from the low so i had no worries of it completing once pierced.

Now any prize ass can trade backwards... so lets trade forwards..
if you are going agressive... this 30 min move i wouldnt mind taking off of the tl break especially in light of that major quick downswing.. however.. off of that fib it is not triggered so... bottom red is logical stop or go non agressive at the bottom and top red line is logical move if you wanted for some reason to trail it out longer then tp.

Problems with this?
1.) it is not triggered
2.) the stop is not the do or die boundary

so there is risk of losing involved in this but really I think we should be fine chuckle.

TK
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  • #876
  • Jun 22, 2010 12:47am Jun 22, 2010 12:47am
Quoting ThomKnight

when you say you lost.. do you mean your fib didn't work or your stop got hit?

Tk
Thom, I mean my stop got hit. A couple of trades I called right but my stop got hit to a pip then reversed to my target. I think on a straight 61 to 50 setup the stop needs to be below the 61, it will degrade RR slightly but that is the last true swing low point per that fib pairing. Yes I have allowed for spread etc. The others I just called the direction wrong. That's the hardest thing with this stuff, getting the direction right, it's not always obvious. I've not been aiming for the 138 either, with a stop of 10 pips that becomes unnecessary.

Better go and jump on the old train I suppose.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #877
  • Jun 22, 2010 5:18am Jun 22, 2010 5:18am
last night i learned a very important lesson after losing 19 pips. Never enter a trade because it looks like it's going to go in the direction you think. S/r penetration is the best way to trade as far as i am concerned. I have not been posting alot because i began to get really confused when everybody started using so many different fib lines and the fibs began to look really weird. There were different numbers that i had never heard of being used and everything became strange. Whatever happened to keeping things simple. Lol!
  • #878
  • Jun 22, 2010 6:08am Jun 22, 2010 6:08am
Quoting Checkz
last night i learned a very important lesson after losing 19 pips. Never enter a trade because it looks like it's going to go in the direction you think. S/r penetration is the best way to trade as far as i am concerned. I have not been posting alot because i began to get really confused when everybody started using so many different fib lines and the fibs began to look really weird. There were different numbers that i had never heard of being used and everything became strange. Whatever happened to keeping things simple. Lol!...
Keep it simple, stick to the standard fibs. You seem to be doing ok from what I can see. How's the new laptop?

Also chaps, we have a UK budget at 12.30 London time. Be careful trading GBP.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #879
  • Jun 22, 2010 7:13am Jun 22, 2010 7:13am
Quoting Misterdaz
Keep it simple, stick to the standard fibs. You seem to be doing ok from what I can see. How's the new laptop?

Also chaps, we have a UK budget at 12.30 London time. Be careful trading GBP.

MD.
The laptop is great! How have you been doing?
  • #880
  • Jun 22, 2010 8:11am Jun 22, 2010 8:11am
Quoting Checkz
The laptop is great! How have you been doing?
I've put a little into live account, made a little then lost it again. Not really got off the ground yet. Still making my mind up how best to approach this.

MD.
Keep smiling
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