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  • #12,681
  • Jun 21, 2010 11:19pm Jun 21, 2010 11:19pm
Quoting Rubens PP
Dear CrudeCraig

Would you be so kind to discuss the USDCAD down move, and at which point you initiated your trade?

I have been looking to Short it too, but hadn't had the chance to do so since 2days back retest of 1.35 area.

Are you in since the 07 june doji?

..always a pleasure to read you posts

R
Hi Rubens,

Would you be so kind to discuss the USDCAD down move, and at which point you initiated your trade?

I initiated a LONG position on the 14th of June above the hammer. At the time it looked like an excellent trade on the worker because of the location of the hammer being in the 1.0300 area. I knew that this trade was a higher risk trade because of the Boss candle the previous week was a BEEB and i was trading into it BUT i took it anyways and accepted the added risk. As you can see the trade did not develop and i was stopped our for a 1R loss. The lesson here is to understand how strong the trend is and that we must trade in the direction of the boss and big boss.


Are you in since the 07 june doji?

No i did not take any short positions off of the doji.
  • #12,682
  • Jun 22, 2010 3:19am Jun 22, 2010 3:19am
GBP/USD Stopped at exacty 10 ema ,although this average is not used in this method.Underneath we have 20 moving average and monthly pivot .It's too early for a short positions to be taken in my opinion.
  • #12,683
  • Jun 22, 2010 4:24pm Jun 22, 2010 4:24pm
I think I should wait for the price to come down to 20 or 88.50 to initiate short with PA.

What do you think?
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  • #12,684
  • Jun 22, 2010 4:50pm Jun 22, 2010 4:50pm
hmmm, what do you people think?
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  • #12,685
  • Jun 22, 2010 6:14pm Jun 22, 2010 6:14pm
Quoting simpleman
hmmm, what do you people think?
This thread is for posting our analysis and asking for comments. Perhaps you should preface your question with your own analysis so we can discuss.
  • #12,686
  • Jun 22, 2010 6:26pm Jun 22, 2010 6:26pm
Quoting simpleman
I think I should wait for the price to come down to 20 or 88.50 to initiate short with PA.

What do you think?
This is just my view but
I don't like your short at 88.50 idea. I don't like this short ... yet.
Price has just taken out the previous swing high (28 May) so its a higher high. A pullback to support at 88 or 88.50 could see a higher low.
I am waiting for 91.90-92.50 area to see price action there.
  • #12,687
  • Jun 22, 2010 6:28pm Jun 22, 2010 6:28pm
Quoting simpleman
hmmm, what do you people think?
Well we have the price action (PA)
and we are at support and resistance (SR)

I like this one much better
  • #12,688
  • Jun 22, 2010 8:29pm Jun 22, 2010 8:29pm
Quoting simpleman
I think I should wait for the price to come down to 20 or 88.50 to initiate short with PA.

What do you think?
I agree with Elitejets view. The Boss has put in a confirmed swing low at major support and 50% retracement. Will be watching for price action @ 8730 level and 9200-50 level.
  • #12,689
  • Jun 22, 2010 9:54pm Jun 22, 2010 9:54pm
Flags are just another way of identifying impulse and corrective waves. I've said before I don't do EW, so again...this isn't that.

My chart below is a 4 hour but only because it makes for a good example. It's the same on all time frames and our focus is on the daily charts.

1 and 2 (impulse followed by a corrective) are a bull flag.

3 and 4 (Impulse followed by a corrective...you can identify it by the less severe angle even though it is still up.) are a bear flag.

Note how the 'flag pole' for each flag is the impulse wave for the next formation

5 and 6 (impulse followed by a corrective) are an inverse bear (or rather a bull in this case) depending on how you see the angles.

If this is the case, then the next move will be up and if this 4 hour candle is a hammer, then the play would be long above he hammer with a stop below the low of the hammer.

It has a really tight SL of 40 pips (the low plus 10) so RR is terrific. Yes I'll be taking this trade if the candle holds it's form (hour and a half to go). Might this go against me? Sure it can! But that's ok because as Craig likes to say "I have accepted the risk". I also have a plan and will trade that plan for better or worse.

I'll be looking for an exit equal to the 'flag' portion because according to my last post on Head and Shoulders (HH, LL, LH) this trade would fit that scenario and my exit should (in theory) be at the top of the next LH (or the right shoulder).

Please note this is not a Strat trade. I am only showing this material to dissect a technical aspect of trading so it makes sense to the layman (you and me).
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  • #12,690
  • Jun 22, 2010 11:04pm Jun 22, 2010 11:04pm
The criteria was met for my plan: Remain above 1.2260. If price breaks 5 pips above the bond hammer, I'm long. RR 1:1.5 At risk is my standard 3%.

I wont know how it works out until tomorrow because I'm going to bed. The London crowd is famous for going against what you think should happen. If that happens then it happens.

For the lurkers, this is not a trade recommendation for you to take. I wanted to show a live example based on its technical merits for the purpose of explanation.

Also of note: I would have liked to see the body inside the body of the previous candle. As it is this is a bearish signal rather than a bullish one. So the candle is more doji than bond hammer.
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  • #12,691
  • Jun 23, 2010 5:11am Jun 23, 2010 5:11am
Potential buyer for tonight.I'll be waiting for a bulish sign to go long.
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  • #12,692
  • Jun 23, 2010 5:18am Jun 23, 2010 5:18am
Please make a thread's analyse and explain the reason why do you want to go long! " Tonight" ??.Thanks.
My humble opinion.
  • #12,693
  • Jun 23, 2010 5:20am Jun 23, 2010 5:20am
Quoting kratun
Potential buyer for tonight.I'll be waiting for a bulish sign to go long.
kratun, did you even read Strat teachings? I see you keep posting analysis that has nothing to do with Strat teachings. Please stay with the topic of this thread.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #12,694
  • Jun 23, 2010 5:43am Jun 23, 2010 5:43am
Quoting soso
kratun, did you even read Strat teachings? I see you keep posting analysis that has nothing to do with Strat teachings. Please stay with the topic of this thread.
Yeah,I 've read them.And one of them is to buy/sell at S/R.I'am pretty sure he makes a countertrend trades sometimes.It's best to avoid this kind of trades unless they 'are at PASR. As for the other question ,I'll go long providing I see a proper PA.That's it. I have nothing further to say.
  • #12,695
  • Jun 23, 2010 6:15am Jun 23, 2010 6:15am
I want to add one more thing with regard to PASP.There're many forms of S/R.It could be monthly pivot,which I pay close attention to,previous high/low of the week/month,moving averages 10/20 50. Iam sure you know or use them so I don't want to waste your time any longer.Thanks
  • #12,696
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:01am Jun 23, 2010 8:01am
Quoting kratun
Yeah,I 've read them.And one of them is to buy/sell at S/R.I'am pretty sure he makes a countertrend trades sometimes.It's best to avoid this kind of trades unless they 'are at PASR. As for the other question ,I'll go long providing I see a proper PA.That's it. I have nothing further to say.
Kratun,

It's clear you have not read and understood Strat's teachings. Yes it's buy/sell at SR but there are criteria other than PA to do so. If you had read and understood the thread you would know this.

Your posts give neither analysis nor reasoning for the trade you say you are waiting for. Your posts offer no educational value nor do they even offer an opportunity for discussion. You mention EMAs that we don't use, pivots which we don't use and when questioned, your responses are either borderline or outright rude.

I'll remind you of your previous posts in this thread...one in particular posted after a rather verbal and inappropriate series of tirades:

Quoting kratun
My apologies to Mr Strat ,the reason I wrote those unaccebtable words were under influence of alchocol just got back from the pub when I read his comment.
This is my last post in here so my sincere apologies to evryone in this thread and especially Mr.Strat..
I see that you have chosen to break your own word by posting here after the fact anyway. If you plan to post further in this thread, please refrain from posting 'trade calls' without giving a proper Strat explanation of 'why' you are making said call.

thanks,
Marcus
  • #12,697
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:04am Jun 23, 2010 8:04am
Good!
  • #12,698
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:10am Jun 23, 2010 8:10am
[quote=mstandifer;3822330]The criteria was met for my plan: Remain above 1.2260. If price breaks 5 pips above the bond hammer, I'm long. RR 1:1.5 At risk is my standard 3%.

Hi Marcus, that was interesting post. I use flags and pennants etc, but i haven't really thought of them in terms of waves before.
I must admit though, that bull flag doesn't jump out at me, it just looks like the expected retrace.
I don't look at the 4hr much. but it seems there was a nice shooting star on a retest of prev highs. As i type it seems the mkt is sideways, so good luck with the trade.
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  • #12,699
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:41am Jun 23, 2010 8:41am
Quoting mstandifer
3 and 4 (Impulse followed by a corrective...you can identify it by the less severe angle even though it is still up.) are a bear flag.

Note how the 'flag pole' for each flag is the impulse wave for the next formation

5 and 6 (impulse followed by a corrective) are an inverse bear (or rather a bull in this case) depending on how you see the angles.
Marcus,
you have an interesting choice for impulse & corrective moves.

For me a move/wave to be corrective it has to correct what an impulse wave previously did. If a wave goes in the direction of the impulse (like your waves 4 & 6 did) I dont consider it corrective. Unless I see a retracement, I consider it part of the impulse.
  • #12,700
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:49am Jun 23, 2010 8:49am
Quoting golfer27
I must admit though, that bull flag doesn't jump out at me, it just looks like the expected retrace.
Quoting hcristea
Marcus,
you have an interesting choice for impulse & corrective moves.

For me a move/wave to be corrective it has to correct what an impulse wave previously did. If a wave goes in the direction of the impulse (like your waves 4 & 6 did) I dont consider it corrective. Unless I see a retracement, I consider it part of the impulse.
As I type this, the trade has ended up in the loss column but it was the educational experience that counted.

Thanks to you and Golfer for pointing out a few things. I'm beginning to see the way price moves differently and my nomenclature is off on what is corrective...I was attempting to describe the less severe angle that price created vs. the impulse move. Thanks for pointing that out.

I'm not going to drag the thread into a wave discussion so I'll send you and Golfer a PM because I have a few questions. Thanks for the comments.
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