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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #67,101
  • Jun 23, 2010 5:57am Jun 23, 2010 5:57am
Quoting jarroo
Nice job Hans. . .you really did great on this one. You would been surprised by the number of traders still in this one wondering why their not rich yet or wondering why its not at 1.2000. lol

I'm sure you have noted that Price hit both previous bars lows, respectively.
Thank you. Yes, I noticed that. The first time it approached this area it missed my TP for just one pip, turned around, stopped me out and fell again. That's part of trading I guess. I remind myself again and again that BE trades are still winners.
Thanks J16, Sam Seiden, Udine and Jacko
  • #67,102
  • Jun 23, 2010 6:11am Jun 23, 2010 6:11am
Quoting HanSolo
Thank you. Yes, I noticed that. The first time it approached this area it missed my TP for just one pip, turned around, stopped me out and fell again. That's part of trading I guess. I remind myself again and again that BE trades are still winners.
A guy on another thread yesterday said he had got out evens.

Reminded me of what James says, that he scores Break evens trades as winners, I said that was a successful trade.
He had been successful in conserving his capital - the primary goal.

He came back and said "a penny saved is a penny earned."

The phrase of course means something slightly different but it fits our situation as well.
  • #67,103
  • Edited 6:40am Jun 23, 2010 6:28am | Edited 6:40am
Right, after an afternoon of watching the big guy on the weekly again, I have decided to stop messing around and do myself an immense favor.

I am confining myself to the weekly charts with just the 365 & 150 EMAs, no MACD no sweet spots gold.

If I do not do this now, I will never do it and I have that sneaking feeling that this may well teach me more than I can at this moment imagine.

Just a quick question though, we still have to wait for the bar to close, do we not? for example CAD/JPY has a BEOB forming and the problem area seems to have been violated. So now, I have to wait till next week to see if this bar does end up as a BEOB?

EDIT: hang on though, even if this bar closes higher up it will still be a BEOB because the low will still remain at the point it currently is at, so maybe we do not have to wait? EDIT: Then again it could become a Bullish PB.

PS: If anyone else new wants to join me, now is the time folks.
perhaps the journey shared can become more pleasant. And you really wanted to do this, didn't you?

Come on all you closet weekly people.
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  • #67,104
  • Jun 23, 2010 6:40am Jun 23, 2010 6:40am
Quoting Pinbar
Right, after an afternoon of watching the big guy on the weekly again, I have decided to stop messing around and do myself an immense favor.

I am confining myself to the weekly charts with just the 365 & 150 EMAs, no MACD no sweet spots gold.
I think when you have used 15M charts and even 1M charts the idea of weekly charts is hard to grasp.
I have the feeling I am going to miss something. That if I don't move down to the daily and then the 4H and then the 1H and then the 5M I am going to miss it all. It will all go wrong.

The thing is the profitable moves are sat there on the weekly and daily charts.
The world isn't going to change because I decide to use these.
The issue is the stop losses and so the amount you trade with. But having mastered this, I am sure life will be much calmer.
Set ups are more reliable.
You have much more time to look at all the angles instead of blundering in and losing money on impulse.
  • #67,105
  • Jun 23, 2010 6:50am Jun 23, 2010 6:50am
Quoting six gun
I think when you have used 15M charts and even 1M charts the idea of weekly charts is hard to grasp.
I have the feeling I am going to miss something. That if I don't move down to the daily and then the 4H and then the 1H and then the 5M I am going to miss it all. It will all go wrong.

The thing is the profitable moves are sat there on the weekly and daily charts.
The world isn't going to change because I decide to use these.
The issue is the stop losses and so the amount you trade with. But having mastered this, I am sure life will be much calmer.
Set...
yeah, could be like that but we should also remember that James specifically lays this out as a requirement. I think I at long last realize why that is.

Yes, I think it may be hard but trading is a hard business and if we can not do what is required of us how can we possibly do what is required of us in this business with some very shrewd people who are waiting to take our money from us like candy from a baby?

On the reverse side of it, our trades will be fewer and even though the stops will be larger, I think we should remember that with good Money management we will be exposing our equity to the market much less. And as you said, setups will be more reliable. Sounds like a win win situation to me at LAST.

Today, I think I saw for the first time how PPZ are working clearly, I mean how the bar lows and the bar highs are showing us where the FTA is much clearer.

And, NO the world not going to change because we use the weekly TF, what is going to change is ourselves and that is exactly all we ever want to change.
  • #67,106
  • Jun 23, 2010 6:51am Jun 23, 2010 6:51am
Quoting jarroo
Hey Atc.

Watching your Eur/Cad 8Hour and Daily PB. Don't know if you took it or not.

You got to love the hard break. Why can't they all be like this . .

I'll tell you, on some setups if they don't act like this I cut them quick.
I didn't have time to bird dog this one---sleep/work sched.--so I had to let it go...good to watch...and thanks for your feedback
  • #67,107
  • Edited 7:41am Jun 23, 2010 6:59am | Edited 7:41am
Let me preface this with a disclaimer: Reading back, sometimes my combination of brevity and charming personality comes off like a cranky old man on the porch, ranting at kids on my lawn... so I apologise if I did. I wasnt trying to be a jerk or anything It's just a topic that comes up at least once a month in here, so I figured a longer answer was in order.

Quoting six gun
joelcf - the message I get is not to bother changing the time zone.
It isnt really that you shouldnt bother, it is just that I dont really see any particular one being 'best'. Arguments can be made for/against any, but - in my view anyways - as long as you dont split London and NY, you cant really make a mistake.

(and even if you did, it wouldnt be a huge one anyways)

Plenty of guys here have a couple of brokers spread across the timezones and treat each as a seperate chart. It isnt a terrible idea, if only to give the learning curve a healthy boost by doubling/tripling/etc the number of charts you evaluate.

Obviously, you have an easier time than the MT4 guys with these kinds of shifts - ask SC about his broker collection, lol

Quoting six gun
You say I am assuming - I am guessing. As I have not been round all the dealing desks of big players interviewing them I have to guess.
Nothin wrong with that at all - as long as you are thinking about it, you are ahead of 90% of people out there who just see squiggly lines on the internet and hit a button. Hell, just by studying the key info in this thread (which you clearly have been), you are trouncing all the chumps out there blindly trading EAs, 'news' (a long time after it has been assimilated) and random MA crosses that havent worked since 1999.

It is just when people take those guesses and start relying on them as facts that things can turn bad if you arent careful. I sure as hell have done some things based on assumptions that were, in retrospect, pretty clownshoeish. Then again, so did LTCM

Quoting six gun
I am sure it is known what the bigger player speculators use.
They are not all making candles ignoring what went before, so they must be reacting to something.
The issue here is that 'speculators' are a hugely diverse group with different time horizons, strategies and aims - ranging from long term economic views (arguably the most influential subgroup of speculators, since they are directionally biased and carry a big stick) to momentum traders to those engaged in pairs/triangle trading, to those in covered/uncovered interest rate arbitrage (think carry trades) to straight news/newsflow traders to those trying to exploit all the technicians (amateur and pro) on breakouts/candle patterns/etc.

The last ones, who are arguably scalpers, are the guys who get the most attention on forums (anyone who has been outside this thread on FF will have read someone ranting about hedge funds targeting 'their' stops), and they do exist... but they arent really driving the daily bars.

So you can see the problem we all face; you never know if that last M5 bar is a guy banking on a divergence between USDCAD and CL, someone trading a PPZ bounce or whether it is George Soros betting a billion that the US is going to run another round of liquidity... all of which are going to end up with very different footprints on the chart.

And that's only looking at half the market, and generally not the half driving trends

We can make some educated guesses around the edges, but on the whole we just need to analyse the price charts as best we can for good bars in good places.

Or, as the big guy says, Keep It Simple.


Quoting six gun
Maybe it is computers doing it all.
Algo trading is a whole crazy headache-inducing topic on its own.

Fortunately, on the kind of timeframes we are talking about, you can ignore almost all of it. In general, they are focused on arbitrage opportunities and short term exploitable market patterns. On the whole, these either dont affect us (since they are arbitraged away somewhere between microseconds and minutes), or they actually help us by making sure our charts stay aligned. It's why none of your brokers are actually running your stops.

Yeah, you have some long range strats, especially when you start looking at futures contracts, but even if we knew what they were, us mere mortals would likely not understand anyways - one of my best friends is a quant for a large IB, and he leaves my head spinning sometimes


Quoting six gun
Edit
In Jack Schwager's book "New Market Wizards" which I know some people here have read, does he say anything about this aspect?
I'm in the minority, and this is just an opinion, but I think the MW books are good, but very overrated on the internet.

It's a good book for insight into how traders think, and there is definitely some eye openers in there, but you wont find any real strategies as such. Still worthwhile, as is all Jack's stuff.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #67,108
  • Jun 23, 2010 7:46am Jun 23, 2010 7:46am
USDJPY inside bar short.

Price has broken through a 62 fib and broken the bottom of a BUOB. I see this as a sign of weakness that the area did not hold. I also used a pitchfork to provide me with additional information for this trade but this is not really relevant to the thread.

The break of the daily inside bar was my trigger. Very small risk/stop loss above todays high. I will update if stop loss is hit or when I take profit.

90 round number is being tested now and may be the area that pushes price against me and stops me out. If price can push through it could be a good runner.

Price has moved lower since I took the screenshot but this was my entry area. I posted this originally in the pitchfork thread earlier.

cheers

fxp
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  • #67,109
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:11am Jun 23, 2010 8:11am
One thing I forgot to add is that weekly chart is very bearish too. Last week was a bearish outside bar.

Quoting fxprocessor
USDJPY inside bar short.

Price has broken through a 62 fib and broken the bottom of a BUOB....
  • #67,110
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:40am Jun 23, 2010 8:40am
Quoting supremeChaos
nuclear62,
Great job, Sir

comparing the last few bars (on H4 chart), gbpchf had a cleaner upmove than gbpjpy.
Nice one.
Hi SC,

Is the GDP/CHF pair corelated with GBP/JPY pair.

Cheers,
Novice 198
  • #67,111
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:44am Jun 23, 2010 8:44am
Quoting Pinbar
Getting back to basic ans trying to simplify things is showing me all sorts of setups I missed.

Now, these Daily & H4 PBs really stands out and I can't believe I could miss them.
I missed the EUR / CHF 4H PB. I was 3 hrs too late to spot it, I guess have to wait for another opportunity. There is life beyond Trading which cannot be over looked.

Cheers
Novice 198
  • #67,112
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:48am Jun 23, 2010 8:48am
Quoting novice198
Hi SC,

Is the GDP/CHF pair corelated with GBP/JPY pair.

Cheers,
Novice 198
Sometimes they will run pretty close in correlation if say the gbp is the dominating theme, but there are many times like now when the correlation is not there. This is why just stick to a chart is a chart, solves that problem

Best
Mike
  • #67,113
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:49am Jun 23, 2010 8:49am
Quoting jarroo
Hey Atc.

Watching your Eur/Cad 8Hour and Daily PB. Don't know if you took it or not.

You got to love the hard break. Why can't they all be like this . .

I'll tell you, on some setups if they don't act like this I cut them quick.
Hi Jarroo,
Not with standing the fact that the daily PB worked well ( this is in hindsight), isn't the daily PB a B setup at its best due to the size of the PB as compared to the other bars around it.

Cheers
Novice 198
  • #67,114
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:57am Jun 23, 2010 8:57am
So, just clarify - I'm in the early stages of the 3 month demo.

My strategy thus far has been to take all "decent" looking PBs on the daily. What an educational experience! Yesterday I took several, and it was quite interesting to see which ones worked out, and how quickly.

I'm starting to understand why it may be worth it to cut the trades off quickly that don't move in the direction you anticipate. Yesterday I took CHFJPY, EURAUD, GBPCHF, GBPJPY, EURAUD, and EURCAD.

Of those, EURCAD and GBPCHF broke hard. The rest, I used break even stops based on near-term S/R from 30-100 pips, and I was able to get out at break even on all but one, EURAUD, which I decided to take a small loss on this morning.

I resisted the idea of taking a demo account seriously for any reasonable length of time since I found forex 2 years ago. As James said in a post somewhere, I've been trying to sprint over and over again to win a marathon. Opening a "serious" demo account is such a simple undertaking, but one that requires an incredible amount of self-control and discipline. I can tell already that it is going to revolutionize my agonizing journey so far.

James, I may challenge you for the amount of money lost in forex per given time period From what I gather, I am not near your overall total, but the amount I've lost in 2 years boggles my mind. I think that phase of my journey is over.
  • #67,115
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:57am Jun 23, 2010 8:57am
Quoting jarroo
Here's one that I missed datogio. Multi confluences, lining up with PA confirmation.
Yes nice one Jarroo. I missed to capitalize on that one too but acquired a new portion of information to build my experience wall I'm so thankful that I'm at the point of mindset, at last, when there're no missed or lost positions, only positions that build the experience and confidence, sometimes for a tiny charge and sometimes for free or even with profit.

God bless this thread and all its participant.
  • #67,116
  • Jun 23, 2010 9:01am Jun 23, 2010 9:01am
Quoting novice198
I missed the EUR / CHF 4H PB. I was 3 hrs too late to spot it, I guess have to wait for another opportunity. There is life beyond Trading which cannot be over looked.

Cheers
Novice 198
There's no pin bar on EC H4. Post a chart if you see one.
EDIT.
My bad. You were probably talking about the past, not today's chart, right?
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #67,117
  • Jun 23, 2010 9:12am Jun 23, 2010 9:12am
WARNING!

In case you don't have the habit of keeping an eye on the excellent FF calendar, I'd like to warn you: today is FOMC day - the decision tends to affect all pairs. I've made the mistake in the past of trading near a Fed Funds Rate decision. Needless to say, it didn't end well.

Happy pippin'
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #67,118
  • Jun 23, 2010 9:18am Jun 23, 2010 9:18am
Quoting novice198
Hi SC,
Is the GBP/CHF pair correlated with GBP/JPY pair.
....
Quoting mbqb11
Sometimes they will run pretty close in correlation if say the gbp is the dominating theme, but there are many times like now when the correlation is not there. This is why just stick to a chart is a chart, solves that problem
....
Mike answered...thanks Sir.

novice198,
i mentioned gbpjpy because i had several buy positions at the time of my post.
i simply compared the two (gj & gchf), but ended up posting my observation as well. sorry for the slight confusion
  • #67,119
  • Jun 23, 2010 9:20am Jun 23, 2010 9:20am
Quoting bug
WARNING!
...FOMC day...
Happy pippin'
thanks for the reminder, Cornholio
  • #67,120
  • Jun 23, 2010 9:22am Jun 23, 2010 9:22am
Quoting bug
WARNING!

In case you don't have the habit of keeping an eye on the excellent FF calendar, I'd like to warn you: today is FOMC day - the decision tends to affect all pairs. I've made the mistake in the past of trading near a Fed Funds Rate decision. Needless to say, it didn't end well.

Happy pippin'

Thank you for the warning. What time is the meeting? I can't find it in the FF calendar.

Best regards

OK, found it on the net:

2:15 pm Eastern Wednesday
"Put your shoulder to the wheel!"
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