Am I good or just lucky? | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

I'd rather be lucky than good - 72.3% returns since start 2014 6 replies

How many trades until a system is proven, not just lucky? 43 replies

FXTradepro "LUCKY 7" Journal 141 replies

Lucky journal. 20 replies

SWING Trades using the FXTradepro "LUCKY 7" Progression Sequence 4 replies

Am I good or just lucky?

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 22, 2010 9:20am Jun 22, 2010 9:20am
I opened an Oanda account 6 weeks ago: $50K. I have a lot of experience trading e-minis on short time frames. I've been trading EUR/USD on pure price action: no SMAs EMAs, no nothing. I just watch the candles at 15min, 5min, and 1min and trade on "feel". Once a trade is on I watch it on the 1min. My trades last 5-20 minutes, never hold overnight. No stops.
For the 6 weeks I've averaged $641 profit per day. I've only had 5 losing days.
Am I lucky or do I have a knack for this?
  • #2
  • Jun 22, 2010 9:28am Jun 22, 2010 9:28am
Postpone the question till ... the end of yr, at least.
  • #3
  • Jun 22, 2010 9:30am Jun 22, 2010 9:30am
If you have to ask, it probably means you were just lucky. However, nobody can say without analyzing your trades and methodology. You made no mention of trade size either, so for all we know you could have risked 40% of your capital on a single trade .
  • #4
  • Edited 9:33am Jun 22, 2010 9:31am | Edited 9:33am
You sure have a knack for it young man, but make it a point to trade with money you have written off in your books just in case the loss goes berzerk without an SL. This by no means is to dishearten you. Keep doing what you feel like. Just make sure you can afford it. All the world's tech analyses is as good or as bad as your intuition so why not follow one's own self.
  • #5
  • Jun 22, 2010 3:21pm Jun 22, 2010 3:21pm
It could be that you're just lucky but again it's always a good thing to trade as you said on "feel". No one can know best what your strategy is and what works for you. If it works stick to it. Good luck with your future trades.

Donovan.
  • #6
  • Jun 22, 2010 3:58pm Jun 22, 2010 3:58pm
add a sl even a wide one if necesary
  • #7
  • Jun 22, 2010 4:13pm Jun 22, 2010 4:13pm
EUR/USD is in strong trend since December '09 therefore I think there's no need to be lucky, or to rely on a good system- just sit 'n watch.
  • #8
  • Jun 22, 2010 4:15pm Jun 22, 2010 4:15pm
If you're trading based on "feelings", then your success can be attributed to luck.

Sooner or later, luck runs out.
  • #9
  • Jun 22, 2010 9:32pm Jun 22, 2010 9:32pm
If you read "fooled by randomness" you might be inclined to call yourself lucky.

I don't really know how much experience you have with e-minis. So I will refrain from calling it lucky.

But i do beleive there are a few qualities that would put you in the "skill" category. I'll try to list some that I can think of.
1)How do you handle drawdown?
2)What is your maximum drawdown you have ever experienced?
3)At what point do you decide that your entry direction is wrong and close out your losing position?
4)What is your risk to reward ratio?

If you can answer all of the above questions with ease and great detail, you are probably a very good trader. If you cannot answer any of the above satisfactorily, you are probably lucky.

The "feel" you get from a random gut reaction and the "feel" you get from a well informed, methodological, calculated risk is very different. One of them makes you uneasy when the market moves against you, the other allows you to remain calm and composed because it is within calculation. I hope you get the drift...
  • #10
  • Jun 22, 2010 10:49pm Jun 22, 2010 10:49pm
Quoting INANJ
I opened an Oanda account 6 weeks ago: $50K. I have a lot of experience trading e-minis on short time frames. I've been trading EUR/USD on pure price action: no SMAs EMAs, no nothing. I just watch the candles at 15min, 5min, and 1min and trade on "feel". Once a trade is on I watch it on the 1min. My trades last 5-20 minutes, never hold overnight. No stops.
For the 6 weeks I've averaged $641 profit per day. I've only had 5 losing days.
Am I lucky or do I have a knack for this?
A simple hypothesis test will give you the answer, just need to know what your status are (avg. win, avg. loss, win%).

We can re-sample your trades and figure out exactly what the probabilities are for achieving the same results by luck.

However, judging from your description above, I'm willing to bet the farm that it's luck.

http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/6659/hyp.jpg
  • #11
  • Jun 22, 2010 11:21pm Jun 22, 2010 11:21pm
Quoting INANJ
I opened an Oanda account 6 weeks ago: $50K. I have a lot of experience trading e-minis on short time frames. I've been trading EUR/USD on pure price action: no SMAs EMAs, no nothing. I just watch the candles at 15min, 5min, and 1min and trade on "feel". Once a trade is on I watch it on the 1min. My trades last 5-20 minutes, never hold overnight. No stops.
For the 6 weeks I've averaged $641 profit per day. I've only had 5 losing days.
Am I lucky or do I have a knack for this?
Is it a 50K demo or live and if you have lots of experience (trading eminis) then it really beats me as to why your asking whether it is luck or trading skill. I would think that with a least a small amount of experience and provided the 50K is real that the question shouldnt be asked....
  • #12
  • Jun 23, 2010 12:46am Jun 23, 2010 12:46am
lucky...if you can keep it up for the rest of the year, then it might not be luck. Six weeks is really nothing. I've had longer winning streaks. $641 is 1.3% of $50k. If you average 1.3% a day everyday, that's 26% a month assuming 20 trading days per month. That's not a figure anyone can keep up consistently over time.

Imagine the roulette wheel, sometimes it could go on a streak of 20 reds in a row, but over the long run, reds and blacks will even out.
  • #13
  • Jun 23, 2010 1:16am Jun 23, 2010 1:16am
Quoting INANJ
I opened an Oanda account 6 weeks ago: $50K. I have a lot of experience trading e-minis on short time frames. I've been trading EUR/USD on pure price action: no SMAs EMAs, no nothing. I just watch the candles at 15min, 5min, and 1min and trade on "feel". Once a trade is on I watch it on the 1min. My trades last 5-20 minutes, never hold overnight. No stops.
For the 6 weeks I've averaged $641 profit per day. I've only had 5 losing days.
Am I lucky or do I have a knack for this?
1% per day for 6 weeks isn't that outstanding. Keeping it up is harder.
  • #14
  • Jun 23, 2010 2:47am Jun 23, 2010 2:47am
Quoting Intensity
1% per day for 6 weeks isn't that outstanding. Keeping it up is harder.
Are you for real!!! 1% per day over 6 weeks is 30% which is quite outstanding
  • #15
  • Jun 23, 2010 2:51am Jun 23, 2010 2:51am
Quoting Razor_trader
Are you for real!!! 1% per day over 6 weeks is 30% which is quite outstanding
Quite outstanding, sure but there are other traders around here who manage to do it +/- regularly. I'm not there yet but I've seen enough oanda account statements to know that it's a performance that can be reproduced by experienced day-traders.
  • #16
  • Jun 23, 2010 3:09am Jun 23, 2010 3:09am
I do about half of that, but I only trade about 6 hours a week.
  • #17
  • Jun 23, 2010 3:12am Jun 23, 2010 3:12am
You're awesome and don't let anyone tell you differently...

May be that you just don't know it yet
Time hides Nothing
  • #18
  • Jun 23, 2010 3:14am Jun 23, 2010 3:14am
It is possible and I have seen such results. But don't get high and always know that the risk involved in FOREX is enormous. I hope you make loads of money and share something from your strategy here
go go go
  • #19
  • Jun 23, 2010 5:52am Jun 23, 2010 5:52am
Quoting Intensity
Quite outstanding, sure but there are other traders around here who manage to do it +/- regularly. I'm not there yet but I've seen enough oanda account statements to know that it's a performance that can be reproduced by experienced day-traders.
Yes and I would bet that 99% of them are either Demo accounts or small live accounts. There are also alot of BS artists around and they generally post some really hipnotic crap before disappearing for whatever reason.

Over the course of a year if my account was up 30% or more I would be quite happy to say that it was a very successful year. There will also be years where 60% or more is achieved and then there will be years when you fail to beat the banks interest offering.
  • #20
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:11am Jun 23, 2010 8:11am
Quoting Razor_trader
Yes and I would bet that 99% of them are either Demo accounts or small live accounts. There are also alot of BS artists around and they generally post some really hipnotic crap before disappearing for whatever reason.

Over the course of a year if my account was up 30% or more I would be quite happy to say that it was a very successful year. There will also be years where 60% or more is achieved and then there will be years when you fail to beat the banks interest offering.
So true, most of the high % results are done on accounts < $ 10K and I'm starting to think that the OP's $ 50K are on a demo account. Personally I consider 1% per week a very good week.
0 traders viewing now