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Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

  • #4,281
  • Jun 22, 2010 3:21pm Jun 22, 2010 3:21pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting OvT
gogo germany! tat's your team right? lol
but klose not playing -_-
right
Klose will be replaced by our Brazilian: 'Cacau' (as it looks at the moment)
So lets see what we can do
(If we are out guess I will have more time to look at my charts again )
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #4,282
  • Jun 22, 2010 3:30pm Jun 22, 2010 3:30pm
Its'a me....Maradona.... Good Argentina game near the end
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  • #4,283
  • Jun 22, 2010 3:34pm Jun 22, 2010 3:34pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting Saxon
Its'a me....Maradona.... Good Argentina game near the end

I'd like Argetina to win (if we don't)


...just because of that:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/foo...ntina-win.html
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #4,284
  • Jun 22, 2010 3:36pm Jun 22, 2010 3:36pm
Quoting Tuner

I'd like Argetina to win (if we don't)


...just because of that:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/foo...ntina-win.html
Haha, don't want to be around to watch that, haha.

I wanted Spain to win, but not looking so good.
What's up with France?
  • #4,285
  • Jun 22, 2010 3:39pm Jun 22, 2010 3:39pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Here's another way to look at it on the H2. See how the indicator below is about to cross through the 50% level. LTL is also broken here as well.
finally u r starting to catch up with the bearish correction i warned about earlier ,,, Moving avergaes gives a late sell or buy signal than EW ,, that was the case here
  • #4,286
  • Jun 22, 2010 3:51pm Jun 22, 2010 3:51pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
I was lookin at GU again was tempted to go for a lil Long here.

Got another LTL of the recent upmove here.
After breaking it yesterday to the downside we made it back above and were just about to retest it now. (some pips still missing)

But don't like to go for trades on that time of the day.
Much too slow to see what we are up to.

so no trade here for me now..
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"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #4,287
  • Jun 22, 2010 3:54pm Jun 22, 2010 3:54pm
Quoting Jesus4forex
finally u r starting to catch up with the bearish correction i warned about earlier ,,, Moving avergaes gives a late sell or buy signal than EW ,, that was the case here
Call me ignorant, but I think if you have solid targets above and below, then it doesn't really matter. As long as the target gives you enough pips to get your SL to BE or +, then you are set to ride it for as long as it goes at no risk/cost, and that is my goal. My goal is not to predict direction but to be ready for any direction, up or down. We can argue about the next direction, up or down, but when it comes down to it, for me, it is more important to have solid targets. I really don't care if it goes up or down. If my target is reached, I trade, if not, I wait. That is just the way I trade which is not for everyone.
  • #4,288
  • Jun 22, 2010 3:55pm Jun 22, 2010 3:55pm
Quoting Tuner

But don't like to go for trades on that time of the day.
Much too slow to see what we are up to.

so no trade here for me now..
Me too, usually moves sideways until Asia
  • #4,289
  • Jun 22, 2010 3:58pm Jun 22, 2010 3:58pm
Quoting Saxon
[color=#211600]Call me ignorant, but I think if you have solid targets above and below, then it doesn't really matter. As long as the target gives you enough pips to get your SL to BE or +, then you are set to ride it for as long as it goes at no risk/cost, and that is my goal. My goal is not to predict direction but to be ready for any direction, up or down. We can argue about the next direction, up or down, but when it comes down to it, for me, it is more important to have solid targets. I really don't care if it goes up or down. If my target...
everyone uses what fits hes trading style and i respect others methods and risk mannagment and i expect others to respect mine as well ,, not to start talking about different between seeing and expecting
cause as i said before they r both the same ,, when u sell at any point , u r EXPECTING a drop , and when u long U EXPECT a push up ,, U DIDNT SEE IT YET BUT U EXPECT IT UNLESS U JUMP INTO THE FUTUR
  • #4,290
  • Jun 22, 2010 4:05pm Jun 22, 2010 4:05pm
u know what , forget about EW , look at this 3 charts ,, that is the chart i posted early yesterday ,, dont look AT THE CHART ITSELF ,, LOOK AT THE INDICATORS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE CHART
MACD DIVERGANCE AND CROSS OVER
MOMENTUM DIVERGANCE
OSC DIVERGANCE
thats not ew ,, thats very usual indicators signals
and look at the last chart
and study the trend behavior as i explained ,, the correction always ends between the 20 and the 50 Moving average on the daily , IT ALWAYS CORRECT TO AT LEAST BEYOND OR AT THE 20 MA
it could be clear more than that
now thats not EW , as i said EW is used with various trading methods
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  • #4,291
  • Jun 22, 2010 4:13pm Jun 22, 2010 4:13pm
Quoting calderone
I am catching up a bit on all the fine posts and charts. I have some charting to do myself when the anesthesia wears off.

I had some good luck today in that there is no hernia. I did have scar tissue in my esophogus and barrett from the acid erosion. The doctor was able to stretch out my esophogus because it had narrowed so much. Gotta take some pills for a while and should be alright.

I appreciate everyone's well wishes and kind words.

Now, no trades for me today and I will wait until tomorrow to rebuild my charts and get busy. It's nice...

Hi Mike,

Glad to hear that it wasn't hernia but as Saxon said these procedures are no fun.

Anyway, I wish you a full recovery soon and looking forward to reading your posts and analysis.
  • #4,292
  • Jun 22, 2010 4:17pm Jun 22, 2010 4:17pm
Quoting Saxon
[color=#211600]Call me ignorant, but I think if you have solid targets above and below, then it doesn't really matter. As long as the target gives you enough pips to get your SL to BE or +, then you are set to ride it for as long as it goes at no risk/cost, and that is my goal. My goal is not to predict direction but to be ready for any direction, up or down. We can argue about the next direction, up or down, but when it comes down to it, for me, it is more important to have solid targets. I really don't care if it goes up or down. If my target...

Second that.


I think exactly the same.I think speculating the direction is not that easy and it is rarely profitable in long run considering wide SL it demands.But there are certain levels on the chart that provide high probability set ups(lets' say %80). It is not like Directional or Position Trading nor it is Range Trading. It can be called One Touch High Probability Swing Trades.
  • #4,293
  • Jun 22, 2010 6:14pm Jun 22, 2010 6:14pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Mike,

Glad to hear that it wasn't hernia but as Saxon said these procedures are no fun.

Anyway, I wish you a full recovery soon and looking forward to reading your posts and analysis.
+1 on that
we are all looking forward to your return
wish you a very quick recovery
  • #4,294
  • Jun 22, 2010 6:14pm Jun 22, 2010 6:14pm
Quoting Saxon
Haha, don't want to be around to watch that, haha.

I wanted Spain to win, but not looking so good.
What's up with France?
france well, fell apart, lol
maybe spain just needed a bit of warmin up
  • #4,295
  • Jun 22, 2010 6:16pm Jun 22, 2010 6:16pm
Quoting Tuner
right
Klose will be replaced by our Brazilian: 'Cacau' (as it looks at the moment)
So lets see what we can do
(If we are out guess I will have more time to look at my charts again )
i reckon they were doing very good before that referee calling for their game!
we shall see, gl germany
  • #4,296
  • Jun 22, 2010 6:17pm Jun 22, 2010 6:17pm
Quoting shahab8b
Second that.


I think exactly the same.I think speculating the direction is not that easy and it is rarely profitable in long run considering wide SL it demands.But there are certain levels on the chart that provide high probability set ups(lets' say %80). It is not like Directional or Position Trading nor it is Range Trading. It can be called One Touch High Probability Swing Trades.
totally agree, btw great call in g/u
totally missed it because g/u wasn't in my radar, when i realised it was already too late =/

nonetheless, keep it up shahab, great work
  • #4,297
  • Jun 22, 2010 6:29pm Jun 22, 2010 6:29pm
Quoting shahab8b
Second that.


I think exactly the same.I think speculating the direction is not that easy and it is rarely profitable in long run considering wide SL it demands.But there are certain levels on the chart that provide high probability set ups(lets' say %80). It is not like Directional or Position Trading nor it is Range Trading. It can be called One Touch High Probability Swing Trades.
I have a different view on that, for me speculating on direction is an integral part of my trading system and is the difference between me being a breakeven trader and a profitable one.
If I don't know whether the market is moving to the monthly highs or lows then I don't know whether to buy support or sell resistance. It makes a massive difference to the probability of the trades, for example if price is moving up to the monthly highs then buying support has around a 90% chance of the trade working out while selling resistance during this move your probability drops to around 30%.
  • #4,298
  • Edited 7:40pm Jun 22, 2010 7:22pm | Edited 7:40pm
Quoting amyc
I have a different view on that, for me speculating on direction is an integral part of my trading system and is the difference between me being a breakeven trader and a profitable one.
If I don't know whether the market is moving to the monthly highs or lows then I don't know whether to buy support or sell resistance. It makes a massive difference to the probability of the trades, for example if price is moving up to the monthly highs then buying support has around a 90% chance of the trade working out while selling resistance during this...
I know what you are saying, that totally makes sense. But currently I'm working on a model to predict the probability of success in a trade based on some co-variates ,using a Logistic Regression Model.I'm incorporating the inputs like,Support /Resistance lines, Support turned Resistance levels, Weekly Pivot/S/R , Trend Lines, Fibonacci levels,RSI extreme, Div. With the study of the historical charts and my live trades I've been working on the model.There is an intercept and each variable has a regression coefficient.

The concept is not as sophisticated as it sounds, all good traders use confluence of R/S ,TL and Fibs.

As an example I used the model on my A/U short set up.I used Fib Ret, S>R, W.R, RSI>70 4Hr and Fib Ext. When calculating the Predictive Probability of the Outcome (Win) I needed to use a fixed SL and TP so I used one ADR, (120 pips) as both SL and TP. The result was Pr(Win)=.78 , considering the fact that I use RRR=1 that Pr will be great as with a %78 win you can have a Risk/Reward Ratio approximately 3:1 to be profitable.
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  • #4,299
  • Jun 22, 2010 7:25pm Jun 22, 2010 7:25pm
A/U. PA is playing very nicely by abiding by the recent 150/200ma crossover as well as bouncing off of the yellow 21ema as expected. Nice Doji's and Pinbars here and there. Due to the fact that the H1 and above TF's are still bullish any short trades placed here using the M15 should be placed with caution. Stops should be placed above the LTL and S/L's from shorts placed above should be moved to just above the broken LTL.
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When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #4,300
  • Jun 22, 2010 7:54pm Jun 22, 2010 7:54pm
Wife had a bad day at work so I told her we could go do anything she wanted to make her feel better. Little did I know that manacures and peticures made her feel better. Not the most fun, but now I am back to trade.
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