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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #67,001
  • Jun 22, 2010 8:37am Jun 22, 2010 8:37am
Quoting manperm
Any thoughts on this pair? It looks to be a good setup if the current bar closes as an IB, as it would be below 50 fib, daily pivot, and round #. Looks like it should slide down to 61.8 fib, which is just above previous s/r.
I'm watching this pair for a possible short but am waiting to see what happens around 1.10 first
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  • #67,002
  • Jun 22, 2010 8:40am Jun 22, 2010 8:40am
Quoting manperm
Any thoughts on this pair? It looks to be a good setup if the current bar closes as an IB, as it would be below 50 fib, daily pivot, and round #. Looks like it should slide down to 61.8 fib, which is just above previous s/r.
If you take a look at the monthly chart on the chief dollar pairing, price has respected a trend line you can draw from several years back.
I don't think that is coincidence.

Looking at the longer term the trend is down and we are sitting near to the trend line price just bounced off. If price is going up it will soon be on that line and will have to break this long term bearish trend.

Every trend ends in the end, either at zero or when it reverses.
  • #67,003
  • Jun 22, 2010 8:47am Jun 22, 2010 8:47am
I've noticed that often times during a retracement, price will touch the 61.8 fib, then resume the greater trend. I'm looking at shorting the close with a target at 61.8 fib, which also confluences with previous ppz and the 150 sma.
  • #67,004
  • Jun 22, 2010 1:01pm Jun 22, 2010 1:01pm
Quoting jarroo
This is what we look for is a A+ setup, in my book.

I'll take these all day long.
Right on, Jim!
Dow is below 10'300 and still falling.
Too bad I lacked the courage to take this. Oh well, some other time perhaps.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #67,005
  • Jun 22, 2010 1:07pm Jun 22, 2010 1:07pm
Quoting ddinnov
Hi guys - I shall be gainfully employed as of next week so shall be joining the PF very soon

Is anyone short USD/CAD? I still have a trade open form the week before lasts's BEOB. It seems to be slowly making it's way down, but does anyone think it might hit parity anytime soon?
Well and truly stopped out at b/e having taken 1/3 of the profits off the table. A first for me - feels good
Anything can happen.
  • #67,006
  • Jun 22, 2010 1:20pm Jun 22, 2010 1:20pm
Quoting Dan-FX
I'm watching this pair for a possible short but am waiting to see what happens around 1.10 first
I'm keeping an eye on it as well.
I have a sell stop just below 1.1. If the weekly 150 ema rejects the price and sends it down below 38.2 fib (drawn from the bottom in Dec 09) & 1.1 BRN, I'd like to be in. The weekly 150 ema is sitting just around 5-7 pips above the price.
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If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #67,007
  • Jun 22, 2010 1:28pm Jun 22, 2010 1:28pm
Anyone take this AUDJPY short trade on the daily?

I took it right at the 79.70 level - didn't wait for the bar to break the low of the PB (I know it's technically not a pinbar). I then set my stop at breakeven in the blue box area, about 30 pips into profit. The price action took my stop out, and now it is is headed lower.

Any advice on how this could have worked out better for me, or is it "just the way the ball bounces?"
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  • #67,008
  • Jun 22, 2010 1:32pm Jun 22, 2010 1:32pm
Quoting six gun
This is a chicken and egg situation.

The bars tell us what market sentiment is.
Then the bars compound that sentiment as traders react to them.

The buyers are exhausting and more enthusiastic sellers appear.
The bars indicate a change in sentiment - a bearish pin bar forms in outer Mongolia time zone.

A few traders see the pin bar and sell + on the pin bar.

The buyers are exhausting and more enthusiastic sellers appear.
The bars indicate a change in sentiment - a bearish pin bar forms in London.

A lot of traders see the pin bar and sell +++++...
Yep, you just created a crude model describing how crowd psychology works. BTW pinbars and beob/buob aren't exactly something new. Lot's of people are using them in different systems, not necessarily j16 followers. Those bar formations are simply reliable, so the chain reaction (compouding of orders) is magnified. Everything lasts until there is no one left to sell/buy from OR a market maker places a significant buy order, disrupting the chain reaction.

Quote
Jarroo says A++ setup.
And we have ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ selling.



This can't go forever because at some point Jaroo says: "Look out! FTA!" And we have a pullback.
"Put your shoulder to the wheel!"
  • #67,009
  • Edited 1:50pm Jun 22, 2010 1:35pm | Edited 1:50pm
Anyone take the bearish pin on the Dow?
I watch the videos on youtube for PSAadmin
youtube.com/watch?v=m9zUxUwcbh0&playnext_from=TL&videos=7iq-STot2gY&feature=sub
Christian who does the video is usually quite animated.
He put out a red alert on the Dow on Monday.
Sounds like he's at a funeral.

There's a head and shoulders, he's got macd divergence on the last bull rally with low volume, but high volume on the sell offs.

Then we got the bearish pin on Monday, up periscopes and dive to 10600 fathoms of the deep.
I am shorting this one.
  • #67,010
  • Jun 22, 2010 1:45pm Jun 22, 2010 1:45pm
Quoting Possmer
Anyone take this AUDJPY short trade on the daily?

I took it right at the 79.70 level - didn't wait for the bar to break the low of the PB (I know it's technically not a pinbar). I then set my stop at breakeven in the blue box area, about 30 pips into profit. The price action took my stop out, and now it is is headed lower.

Any advice on how this could have worked out better for me, or is it "just the way the ball bounces?"
Hey Possmer

These are the things you have to test if you are going to move your stop down. Again you have to just be consistent to see if it will work for you over the long run. You will have trades that do every single thing and you don't want to try to tweak it every single time. You want to be consistent. If that means getting stop out at b/e 8/10 times but you still turn an overall profit then it will be worth it. Keep a good log book of this type of stuff so you can evaluate 5-6 months down the line

Best
Mike
  • #67,011
  • Jun 22, 2010 1:59pm Jun 22, 2010 1:59pm
Quoting six gun
Anyone take the bearish pin on the Dow?
I watch the videos on youtube for PSAadmin
youtube.com/watch?v=m9zUxUwcbh0&playnext_from=TL&videos=7iq-STot2gY&feature=sub
Christian who does the video is usually quite animated.
He put out a red alert on the Dow on Monday.
Sounds like he's at a funeral.

There's a head and shoulders, he's got macd divergence on the last bull rally with low volume, but high volume on the sell offs.

Then we got the bearish pin on Monday, up periscopes and dive to 10600 fathoms of the deep.
I am shorting this one.
Well, I'm not much for fortune telling, but that was an interesting piece. It also supports my gut feeling bias that all is not well.
  • #67,012
  • Jun 22, 2010 2:04pm Jun 22, 2010 2:04pm
Sorry people I'm at work...not enough time to do pros and cons...thought I'ld share this EUR/CAD 8hr dblhc and Daily small pin ...pretty good location off the 1.25 area but against the trend

Daily chart please look for yourself it messed up on me

GTG...Happy trading
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  • #67,013
  • Edited 2:59pm Jun 22, 2010 2:22pm | Edited 2:59pm
Quoting jarroo
This is what we look for . .this is an A+ setup, in my book.

I'll take these all day long.

Its a BEOB not a Pin Bar but it looks like one . . .I love that.

Nice retracement cluster 61.8 fib and 50% ret. at a BRN 10500. Clear target (its got to get through the 1st target before it gets to your red arrow).
Nice space.

I like it aserbfx . . .to say the least. . . .
Quoting bug
Right on, Jim!
Dow is below 10'300 and still falling.
Too bad I lacked the courage to take this. Oh well, some other time perhaps.

Its not lack of courage, its seeing them . . . . demoing them . . . practising them . .over and over again until you see it for yourself.

They have been pretty rare these days on the Daily but they happen all the time . . .time and time again. You'll figure out the good ones and the great ones.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #67,014
  • Jun 22, 2010 2:35pm Jun 22, 2010 2:35pm
Quoting bug
I'm keeping an eye on it as well.
I have a sell stop just below 1.1. If the weekly 150 ema rejects the price and sends it down below 38.2 fib (drawn from the bottom in Dec 09) & 1.1 BRN, I'd like to be in. The weekly 150 ema is sitting just around 5-7 pips above the price.
I'd like to either see a pullback to around 1.1250 with a PA setup or break of 1.1 then a retest for a short entry
  • #67,015
  • Jun 22, 2010 3:01pm Jun 22, 2010 3:01pm
Quoting jarroo
You'll figure out the good ones and the great ones.

Oh . . . I forgot . .and you only take the great ones . . . right Mike . . I'm still learning this one.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #67,016
  • Edited 3:17pm Jun 22, 2010 3:12pm | Edited 3:17pm
EDITED.
There's something really interesting going on on the GBPUSD pair. We have a bullish pin from M1 all the way through H1 (how the hell did that happen?). This particular pin bounced off of the Weekly pivot and the 23.8 fib right back to the daily pivot. At the same time, we have a wannabe pin bar on the 4 hour chart. Wannabe because it's smack in the middle of heavy traffic with only a short nose. Granted, all of those pins miss one ingredient - their closes are not suitable for A+ setups (bearish closes are lower than open, should be other way around, you get the drift) but they are pin bars nonetheless.

I'm curious, what do the 'seniors' think about this. I think I'm gonna wait this one out personally, too much traffic for my liking..
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #67,017
  • Jun 22, 2010 3:22pm Jun 22, 2010 3:22pm
Quoting jarroo
Oh . . . I forgot . .and you only take the great ones . . . right Mike . . I'm still learning this one.

Lets compromise . Somewhere b/w good/great - great
  • #67,018
  • Jun 22, 2010 3:23pm Jun 22, 2010 3:23pm
Quoting Atc
Sorry people I'm at work...not enough time to do pros and cons...thought I'ld share this EUR/CAD 8hr dblhc and Daily small pin ...pretty good location off the 1.25 area but against the trend

Daily chart please look for yourself it messed up on me

GTG...Happy trading
On my chart this is not a DBLHC - the lows are not the same even if the bodies are on a level.

I was short on this one a couple of weeks ago and then I came out. It did not feel right. OK this is not an indicator but it felt like it was turning, like the bear trend had had its day.
I was right to come out when I did. I considered going short again today but may be I lost my nerve on the pair but I am not bearish with these two right now.
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  • #67,019
  • Jun 22, 2010 3:24pm Jun 22, 2010 3:24pm
Has any one seen the GBP/CHF daily? This looks like a A+ setup.

Can anyone comment?
I am so out of date that I have not yet caught the Millennium Bug.
  • #67,020
  • Jun 22, 2010 3:24pm Jun 22, 2010 3:24pm
Quoting bug
There's something really interesting going on on the GBPUSD pair. We have a bullish pin from M1 all the way through H1 (how the hell did that happen?). This particular pin bounced off of the Weekly pivot right back to the daily pivot. At the same time, we have a wannabe pin bar on the 4 hour chart. Wannabe because it's smack in the middle of heavy traffic with only a short nose. Granted, all of those pins miss one ingredient - their closes are not suitable for A+ setups (bearish closes are lower than open, should be other way around, you get the...

Price Action tell me alot of things . .when they workout (hit their target(s)) or when they dont work out (which could mean they don't break or only hit minor FTAs or they dont' run, etc.)

The uptrend on the Gbp/Usd looks pretty strong. Why? The BEOB on the Daily hit its target, the 1.4700 PPZ level and then reversed. In my mind, this setup fullfilled itself. I 'm thinking were going to the 1.5000.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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