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Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

  • #4,201
  • Jun 21, 2010 10:30pm Jun 21, 2010 10:30pm
Quoting aragorn123
Good, though our methods are different, the fact that you see 8894 plausible gives me more confidence.
I'm glad someone else is in my boat as well, the retrace starting from Mondays highs is possible but unlikely IMO.
  • #4,202
  • Jun 21, 2010 10:35pm Jun 21, 2010 10:35pm
i m expecting at least a 38% ret. and it might go as deep as 50% ret.
notice the divergance on all the indicators on the 4 hours chart to signal the end of the trend
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  • #4,203
  • Jun 21, 2010 11:21pm Jun 21, 2010 11:21pm
A/U, without all of the bologna on the charts and just MA's.

Chart 1 - Daily: Until PA breaks through and closes below the "Red" 5ma, PA is going higher.
Chart 2 - H4: The "Pink" 150ema crossed the "Orange" 200sma recently and this is bullish! PA has NOT broken through and closed under the "Blue" 10ma, again this is bullish! The "Yellow" 21ema and "Black" 35sma have not crossed, again this is bullish!
Chart 3 - H1: PA is still above the "Green" 50ema, 50sma and 62ema. The "Pink" 150ema and "Orange" 200sma have not crossed. This is bullish!
Chart 4 - M15: The "Pink" 150ema and "Orange" 200sma have not crossed! There has only been one time that they crossed since the bottom of this rally and PA was back above the 150ema in no time... This is odd but this is Bullish!

The first signal to go bearish on this pair will occur on the M15 when the pink and orange ma's cross. Although I used a combination of Fibs and the Doji found on the H1 chart to place a short position I still do not consider this pair to be in for a huge retracement just yet. I don't agree with the way that PA is operating here by continuing to move higher and higher but the fact is: that the rest of the world, besides me believes that the risk trade is back on. Oh well!

As EOHater would say: Trade What You See NOT What You Expect!
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When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #4,204
  • Jun 21, 2010 11:23pm Jun 21, 2010 11:23pm
Good Night. Time for some sleep!

http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/23/23_31_3.gif
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #4,205
  • Jun 21, 2010 11:28pm Jun 21, 2010 11:28pm
Quoting MarcVUM
A/U, without all of the bologna on the charts and just MA's.

Chart 1 - Daily: Until PA breaks through and closes below the "Red" 5ma, PA is going higher.
Chart 2 - H4: The "Pink" 150ema crossed the "Orange" 200sma recently and this is bullish! PA has NOT broken through and closed under the "Blue" 10ma, again this is bullish! The "Yellow" 21ema and "Black" 35sma have not crossed, again this is bullish!
Chart 3 - H1: PA is still above the "Green" 50ema, 50sma and 62ema. The "Pink" 150ema and "Orange" 200sma have not crossed. This...
Great charts Marc. Thanks for the analysis. I am still tip toeing the fence...... and unsure as to LT. Have targets + and - from here but wish this PA would star the move so I can get a few trades in before London
  • #4,206
  • Jun 21, 2010 11:29pm Jun 21, 2010 11:29pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Good Night. Time for some sleep!

http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/23/23_31_3.gif
What?!?!?! That's all you ever do What happened to sleep is for the weekends
  • #4,207
  • Jun 21, 2010 11:41pm Jun 21, 2010 11:41pm
Quoting MarcVUM
A/U, without all of the bologna on the charts and just MA's....
just a little comment on ur post ,,, when i say ( i expect ) it means exactly like when i say ( i see ) cause ,, actually , i see and analysis the charts then expect the predict next moves ,, and this is what trading is ,, analyze , place ur long or short and wait for ur ( predicition ) to come true
so no need to say ( trade what u see not what u expect ))
cause u urself seen some stuff in ur charts and expected a bullish movement unless more signals comes up ,,
  • #4,208
  • Jun 21, 2010 11:44pm Jun 21, 2010 11:44pm
and one last note that i ll remind everyone here with soon
longing a trend that went more than 800 pips without correction is not smart ,, what is smart wether build a short position or wait a ret. of at least 38% to long ,, and thats what i m doing ,, going for shorts ,,,
and if u check the last daily chart i posted , u ll know what i mean
  • #4,209
  • Jun 21, 2010 11:45pm Jun 21, 2010 11:45pm
Let's all play nice
  • #4,210
  • Jun 21, 2010 11:45pm Jun 21, 2010 11:45pm
Quoting MarcVUM
I don't agree with the way that PA is operating here by continuing to move higher and higher but the fact is: that the rest of the world, besides me believes that the risk trade is back on. Oh well!

As EOHater would say: Trade What You See NOT What You Expect!
Are you including everyone here on the thread too
  • #4,211
  • Jun 21, 2010 11:49pm Jun 21, 2010 11:49pm
EVERY TRADING METHOD has its one signals and timing

i USE EW which can give much earlier signal than waiting for MA to cross over , than ICH. trading method ,, every method has its advantages and dis.
and everyone chose the method that makes him more confortable and profitable with
but when i show a chart with a good Elliott waves signal for shorts combined by various indicators divergance bearish signal with the use of the daily chart and ELLiott waves to pinpoint the possible target for that ret.
that is something to look at and consider not to offend cause it dont match ur plans
  • #4,212
  • Jun 21, 2010 11:54pm Jun 21, 2010 11:54pm
Quoting Jesus4forex
EVERY TRADING METHOD has its one signals and timing

i USE EW which can give much earlier signal than waiting for MA to cross over , than ICH. trading method ,, every method has its advantages and dis.
and everyone chose the method that makes him more confortable and profitable with
but when i show a chart with a good Elliott waves signal for shorts combined by various indicators divergance bearish signal with the use of the daily chart and ELLiott waves to pinpoint the possible target for that ret.
that is something to look at and consider not...
No offence but ew would be one of the last methodologies I'd change my plans based upon, that is definitely one of the more subjective methodologies out there. Just my opinion.
  • #4,213
  • Jun 21, 2010 11:55pm Jun 21, 2010 11:55pm
Do we think the a/u gap is going to close today?
Annoying Precision
  • #4,214
  • Jun 22, 2010 12:02am Jun 22, 2010 12:02am
Quoting Jesus4forex
EVERY TRADING METHOD has its one signals and timing

i USE EW which can give much earlier signal than waiting for MA to cross over , than ICH. trading method ,, every method has its advantages and dis.
and everyone chose the method that makes him more confortable and profitable with
but when i show a chart with a good Elliott waves signal for shorts combined by various indicators divergance bearish signal with the use of the daily chart and ELLiott waves to pinpoint the possible target for that ret.
that is something to look at and consider not...
Quoting Jesus4forex
EVERY TRADING METHOD has its one signals and...
J,
I don't want to offend you , but I feel that EW are more subjective than many other methods (isn't there more than one way to count waves or something?)...

Besides, have you given thought that people who feel AU might reach higher before retracing (note that no one said it won't go south, just that they dont feel it would right now) might also be right.

In any case, price would ultimately tell who's right. And, if you are positioned appropriately for it, then the pips be with you.
  • #4,215
  • Jun 22, 2010 12:03am Jun 22, 2010 12:03am
Daily Trend Support
00

Lets see if it holds
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Annoying Precision
  • #4,216
  • Jun 22, 2010 12:04am Jun 22, 2010 12:04am
Quoting erikte279
Do we think the a/u gap is going to close today?
Tonight London would be my guess. I am looking for a retrace to 0.8734 for a long position. Lets see if it happens tonight.
  • #4,217
  • Jun 22, 2010 12:05am Jun 22, 2010 12:05am
Quoting aragorn123
Tonight London would be my guess. I am looking for a retrace to 0.8734 for a long position. Lets see if it happens tonight.
I am interested in that for the long side as well, 8736 is my level.
  • #4,218
  • Jun 22, 2010 12:08am Jun 22, 2010 12:08am
Quoting aragorn123
J,
I don't want to offend you , but I feel that EW are more subjective than many other methods (isn't there more than one way to count waves or something?)...

Besides, have you given thought that people who feel AU might reach higher before retracing (note that no one said it won't go south, just that they dont feel it would right now) might also be right.

In any case, price would ultimately tell who's right. And, if you are positioned appropriately for it, then the pips be with you.
Well put
  • #4,219
  • Jun 22, 2010 12:10am Jun 22, 2010 12:10am
Quoting aragorn123
Tonight London would be my guess. I am looking for a retrace to 0.8734 for a long position. Lets see if it happens tonight.
Can you post your chart for that? Just want to get a visual of the retrace and levels. thanks Aragorn!
  • #4,220
  • Jun 22, 2010 12:18am Jun 22, 2010 12:18am
Quoting Saxon
Can you post your chart for that? Just want to get a visual of the retrace and levels. thanks Aragorn!
Give me like five minutes.
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