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Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

  • #4,181
  • Jun 21, 2010 6:14pm Jun 21, 2010 6:14pm
Quoting calderone
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=InYNhLIfC2o
Good stuff
  • #4,182
  • Jun 21, 2010 6:16pm Jun 21, 2010 6:16pm
PA is just puttering along. I will post my targets in a bit, just re-running my charts to try to flush any potential trades out
  • #4,183
  • Jun 21, 2010 8:11pm Jun 21, 2010 8:11pm
PA is stuck between going south and continuing north right now. It can go either way according to the H4 but I am leaning to the downside due to the Gap as well as the Bearish Gartley / Bat Pattern.

Edit: Sorry, I know this chart is far from being naked. I wish I could clean it up!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.jpg Size: 265 KB
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #4,184
  • Jun 21, 2010 8:18pm Jun 21, 2010 8:18pm
Quoting MarcVUM
PA is stuck between going south and continuing north right now. It can go either way according to the H4 but I am leaning to the downside due to the Gap as well as the Bearish Gartley / Bat Pattern.

Edit: Sorry, I know this chart is far from being naked. I wish I could clean it up!
I guess it just needed me to speak my 2 cents to make up its mind!!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #4,185
  • Jun 21, 2010 8:21pm Jun 21, 2010 8:21pm
Quoting MarcVUM
I guess it just needed me to speak my 2 cents to make up its mind!!
Chinese move the midpoint, i guess risk is back on
  • #4,186
  • Jun 21, 2010 8:26pm Jun 21, 2010 8:26pm
Quoting amyc
Chinese move the midpoint, i guess risk is back on
Got to love it. What has been your TP topside all along?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #4,187
  • Jun 21, 2010 8:30pm Jun 21, 2010 8:30pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Got to love it. What has been your TP topside all along?
I'm long looking for 8875 at the moment.
  • #4,188
  • Jun 21, 2010 9:18pm Jun 21, 2010 9:18pm
Quoting amyc
I'm long looking for 8875 at the moment.
Hi Amy

Look at these two charts ,

The structures are similar.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: echf5.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au7tq.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #4,189
  • Jun 21, 2010 9:36pm Jun 21, 2010 9:36pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Amy

Look at these two charts ,

The structures are similar.
I don't see it! This is why I colored in my weather map differently than all of the other kids in 1st grade!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #4,190
  • Jun 21, 2010 9:37pm Jun 21, 2010 9:37pm
Hi Shahab

I agree that au needs a correction, the next swing should be down into next weeks green lows. But before this is bearish price needs to drop hard this week to push those lows below the monthly pp at 8599, if that doesn't happen then any move down to the lows is a buying opportunity.

I don't have a longer term view on this pair until July but at the moment I am leaning more to the bullish side.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.GIF Size: 17 KB
  • #4,191
  • Jun 21, 2010 9:42pm Jun 21, 2010 9:42pm
I am basing my bullish au views partially on the position of the S&P. I don't see anything bearish in this market just a healthy retrace so far. Both these setups should lead to higher prices by the end of the week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: es.GIF Size: 25 KB
  • #4,192
  • Jun 21, 2010 9:50pm Jun 21, 2010 9:50pm
Quoting amyc
I'm long looking for 8875 at the moment.
Are you expecting this sometime between now and NY open?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #4,193
  • Jun 21, 2010 9:54pm Jun 21, 2010 9:54pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Are you expecting this sometime between now and NY open?
No, just sometime in the next 24 hours if it is going to happen. I think a lot depends on the S&P at the moment, it might just range until that opens and shows the direction.
  • #4,194
  • Jun 21, 2010 10:10pm Jun 21, 2010 10:10pm
Quoting amyc
I am basing my bullish au views partially on the position of the S&P. I don't see anything bearish in this market just a healthy retrace so far. Both these setups should lead to higher prices by the end of the week.
to call it a healthy trend , i need to see at least a 38% ret. of the current rally from the bottom for the AUD.USD chart , if u check the daily chart u ll see that after 700-800 pips rally it normally goes to between 38% to 50% fib, ret. , or else it ll be a very risky trend to ride as it can sharply reverse anytime ,
8470-8560 is the resistance zone that i m seeing for the correction for that rally , i ll post a chart in 15 minutes proving my theory
  • #4,195
  • Jun 21, 2010 10:12pm Jun 21, 2010 10:12pm
Quoting Jesus4forex
to call it a healthy trend , i need to see at least a 38% ret. of the current rally from the bottom for the AUD.USD chart , if u check the daily chart u ll see that after 700-800 pips rally it normally goes to between 38% to 50% fib, ret. , or else it ll be a very risky trend to ride as it can sharply reverse anytime ,
8470-8560 is the resistance zone that i m seeing for the correction for that rally , i ll post a chart in 15 minutes proving my theory
I never called it a healthy trend.
  • #4,196
  • Jun 21, 2010 10:14pm Jun 21, 2010 10:14pm
Quoting amyc
No, just sometime in the next 24 hours if it is going to happen. I think a lot depends on the S&P at the moment, it might just range until that opens and shows the direction.
Can you wish for 8894 instead of 8875
  • #4,197
  • Jun 21, 2010 10:20pm Jun 21, 2010 10:20pm
everyone plz read this chart carefully ,, to understand a principle of a healthy rally and how deep the correction should always go
since the big fall ,, the trend up 0.60 to 0.94 in the AUD.USD always showed a 38% to 50% ret. after a rally of around 800 pip ,, thats our case here ,, we have seen a 800 pip rally and possibly needing a correction ,, to call a correction ending , we need to see at LEAST 38% ret, which is around 8560 which is still so far from our position here ,, even if it goes higher more ,, then the realy rally ret. didnt emerge yet and it ll do one day and it ll be at least 38% as history proves
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 01 Jun. 22 06.17.jpg Size: 370 KB
  • #4,198
  • Jun 21, 2010 10:21pm Jun 21, 2010 10:21pm
Anyone short cable? I shorted it earlier on break of trendline. Targeting the lower trendline.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,199
  • Jun 21, 2010 10:26pm Jun 21, 2010 10:26pm
Quoting aragorn123
Can you wish for 8894 instead of 8875
That works well for me, the retrace down to the weekly lows after 3 weeks up, in the past, always starts from an 80 pip top with a pink resistance matched with a 140 pip top.

If we say that 8754 was a swing low then 140 pips up from there is 8894, and looking at the 80 pip bars there should be 2 more up before a retrace starts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.GIF Size: 19 KB
  • #4,200
  • Jun 21, 2010 10:28pm Jun 21, 2010 10:28pm
Quoting amyc
That works well for me, the retrace down to the weekly lows after 3 weeks up, in the past, always starts from an 80 pip top with a pink resistance matched with a 140 pip top.

If we say that 8754 was a swing low then 140 pips up from there is 8894, and looking at the 80 pip bars there should be 2 more up before a retrace starts.
Good, though our methods are different, the fact that you see 8894 plausible gives me more confidence.
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