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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #66,861
  • Jun 21, 2010 11:31am Jun 21, 2010 11:31am
Quoting nuclear62
Hello!

James donīt like to think why price is moving where itīs moving, am i right? I remember he has said that "it just works". Hope iīm not totally wrong with this

I was inspired by ghousīpost, but iīm having a headache thinking why the price sometimes breaks PPZs and sometimes not. Why even some relatively tiny FTA PPZ can turn price against PAsetups on great locations. And why price sometimes only very little respects relatively strong PPZs.
That is the market my friend

You have to develop your personal style and understand where price is likely to go. Then you formulate your plan around never being surprised and letting your edge play out. Sometimes you will decide to do certain things at certain places and you will get the reward/ or pay the price for it Just learn to understand where these places price is likely to go and you will never be surprised at what the market does and thus make better level headed decisions

Best
Mike
  • #66,862
  • Jun 21, 2010 11:32am Jun 21, 2010 11:32am
Quote
..iīm having a headache thinking why the price sometimes breaks PPZs and sometimes not. Why even some relatively tiny FTA PPZ can turn price against PA setups on great locations. And why price sometimes only very little respects relatively strong PPZs...
Hello nuclear62,
the answer is: Supply & Demand.
example,
a strong PPZ below price will break if supply (sellers) is greater than demand(buyers)
a strong PPZ below price will NOT break if supply (sellers) is NOT greater than demand(buyers)

------
great locations are great areas to buy/sell.
great locations are like magnets: they can repel OR attract price.

there is also a possible issue when it comes to identifying 'strong'/'weak' PPZs. it takes time & experience for each of us to correctly identify good/legitimate PPZs & correctly categorize a PPZ as strong or weak.

Hope this helps
  • #66,863
  • Jun 21, 2010 11:38am Jun 21, 2010 11:38am
I am risking 0.3% on this one. PB size is not great but the confluence with minor PPZ and TL is evident.


CY
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  • #66,864
  • Jun 21, 2010 12:11pm Jun 21, 2010 12:11pm
Hi All,

Sorry if this has already been posted haven't kept up with all the posts since the weekend. Did read Ghous's comments on IPB so I hope it's not relating to this setup?

This setup caught me eye because of the possible doji evening star on the daily and the sunday gap. The 4hr then showed a small PB followed by IPB which I thought was a good entry for a gap fill ahead of the possible bearish daily signal. Entry was at break of IPB low. Target 2 pips above bottom of gap.

+ Sunday gap unfilled
+ PPZ at .88 - .885
+ PB then IPB at .8850
+ MACD divergence
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  • #66,865
  • Jun 21, 2010 12:13pm Jun 21, 2010 12:13pm
Quoting nuclear62
Hello!

James donīt like to think why price is moving where itīs moving, am i right? I remember he has said that "it just works". Hope iīm not totally wrong with this

I was inspired by ghousīpost, but iīm having a headache thinking why the price sometimes breaks PPZs and sometimes not. Why even some relatively tiny FTA PPZ can turn price against PAsetups on great locations. And why price sometimes only very little respects relatively strong PPZs.
Unfortunately nuclear it isn't as simple as being inspired by a post, logging back into your mt4 and going "Aha!"

Lot's and lot's and lot's of screen time is imperative, just don't go broke trying to understand price movement, let it sink in naturally. It is magical stuff really because when you do see the light you'll struggle to find who or what lit the torch, and at the end of the day you'll lean back against your experience and chart time and say "Well, I have been doing this for a while"

Becoming a "jarroo" or an "Mbqb11" is not a transformation that can be done over night, it takes a lot more time then that.

the whole point behind chirping about looking at price deeper than a single PA bar and it's location is that you get your mind set right and start to take note of things these things will not be like "Ok so this is what a pin bar looks like" - instead expect something like "Ok so here's why this pin bar despite being great in shape failed to generate a move" - It's this flow of the market that you won't find explained in any post or book not because those who see the light are selfish but because it just can't be explained!

You will have to be patient and do your due diligence which is not to stare at ppzs 6 hours at a stretch to decipher the beast in the next few days but to just see how price moves about, get's attracted to PPZs, pulls away from them, hangs about them, kisses them, hugs them, hates them, loves them...

g.
I believe . . .
  • #66,866
  • Jun 21, 2010 12:22pm Jun 21, 2010 12:22pm
Quoting Dan-FX
Hi All,

Sorry if this has already been posted haven't kept up with all the posts since the weekend....
hey Dan,

Firstly I like to enter at the close of the IPB and normally get out at the low of the IPB,

Secondly that bar's just an indecision bar. If you want to embrace this indecision and think it's probably because price wants to fill the gap then you should really just be calling it a gap trade.

IPB trades are triggered of good strong "pin barish" bars rather than "dojiish" bars.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #66,867
  • Jun 21, 2010 12:35pm Jun 21, 2010 12:35pm
Quoting ghous
hey Dan,

Firstly I like to enter at the close of the IPB and normally get out at the low of the IPB,

Secondly that bar's just an indecision bar. If you want to embrace this indecision and think it's probably because price wants to fill the gap then you should really just be calling it a gap trade.

IPB trades are triggered of good strong "pin barish" bars rather than "dojiish" bars.

g.
Here's a cherry,

read text in the order given in the chart. (1 then 2 then 3 and so on)

g.
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I believe . . .
  • #66,868
  • Edited 1:59pm Jun 21, 2010 1:36pm | Edited 1:59pm
What do you think of the BEOB on daily EURUSD?

Pro:
* VBRN @ 1.2500
* Fib Confluence on daily chart
* Weekly PPZ
* Monthly 150EMA
* With the downtrend

Contra:
* Could be retrace to minor daily TL
* Daily bullish divergence
* Not so much space

I would like to see the daily close below the low of the weekly bar @ 26th Oct 2008 (1.2329) and below the weekly pivot (turquoise line on my chart). FTA and the minor daily TL I mentioned above @ ~1.2258 would be a good point to move to BE.
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Thanks J16, Sam Seiden, Udine and Jacko
  • #66,869
  • Jun 21, 2010 1:54pm Jun 21, 2010 1:54pm
Quoting ghous
Here's a cherry,

read text in the order given in the chart. (1 then 2 then 3 and so on)

g.
Ghous, your charts are invaluable. Thank you very much for this!


I've got another question: I'm trying to become familiar with proper bar sizes. Assuming this would be a PB on NZDJPY and apart from location etc., would you consider it big enough to turn around the preceding uptrend?
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Thanks J16, Sam Seiden, Udine and Jacko
  • #66,870
  • Jun 21, 2010 3:13pm Jun 21, 2010 3:13pm
Good evening,
just wanted to share my short position Aud/Usd good for a few pips. Main reason was pa off lower tf at ppz. It did not meet my rule in terms of MA, however i took it as I saw some other correlated mkts turning lower. Thing is I think i should try and wait until gap is closed but my knowledge is limited on gaps, time for some study! I attach chart to help illustrate my dilema!
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  • #66,871
  • Jun 21, 2010 3:17pm Jun 21, 2010 3:17pm
Quoting Revstar
Good evening,
just wanted to share my short position Aud/Usd good for a few pips. Main reason was pa off lower tf at ppz. It did not meet my rule in terms of MA, however i took it as I saw some other correlated mkts turning lower. Thing is I think i should try and wait until gap is closed but my knowledge is limited on gaps, time for some study! I attach chart to help illustrate my dilema!
Hey Rev

Forex gaps tend to close with a very high frequency(not always right away). This could be the sign to close the gap. These gaps can however also act as a S/R themselves. I don't like to trade PA that has nothing to compare it to in a case like this makes it a bit more tricky. The lower timeframes offered some much better opportunities today as you said

Best
Mike
  • #66,872
  • Jun 21, 2010 3:25pm Jun 21, 2010 3:25pm
Many thanks for the reply Mike, this is the only frustrating thing i find… opportunities present themselves but may take a while to play out... good things come to those who have patience I guess..
revstar


Quoting mbqb11
Hey Rev

Forex gaps tend to close with a very high frequency(not always right away). This could be the sign to close the gap. These gaps can however also act as a S/R themselves. I don't like to trade PA that has nothing to compare it to in a case like this makes it a bit more tricky. The lower timeframes offered some much better opportunities today as you said

Best
Mike
  • #66,873
  • Jun 21, 2010 3:40pm Jun 21, 2010 3:40pm
any thoughts about todays pinbar on dj? i think it goes to the area where the red arrow is. if the pinbar breaks ...
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #66,874
  • Jun 21, 2010 4:46pm Jun 21, 2010 4:46pm
Hi Ghous,

How does this bullish IPB grab you?

Seems to be coiling off area of previous congestion.

Your views appreciated.
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  • #66,875
  • Jun 21, 2010 5:22pm Jun 21, 2010 5:22pm
Quoting aserbfx
any thoughts about todays pinbar on dj? i think it goes to the area where the red arrow is. if the pinbar breaks ...
I'm sure Mike or Jim Jarroo can give you a better answer in terms of PA, but here's the way I look at it.

First of all, there's a lot of support to be chewed through before price can fall to 10'200 (red arrow on your chart). There is a lot of traffic before 10'250-10'300, and that would have to be broken first. You have marked that down on your chart as well. There's also support from the 150 ema, which is at 10410ish right now.

However,
Have you looked at other market indexes for confirmation? Given that they move practically in unison, I find it risky to put too much weight on one index, especially the Dow Jones, which consists of only 30 stocks - I prefer the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, which have shown to be more accurate. The pin bar that you see in a BEOB or just a bearish pin on other market indexes, somewhat depending on the feed you have (with my feed, I see a lot more BEOBs on indexes for today).

Of course, not all indexes move together all of the time. The correlation between the indexes of different countries ranges from 0.3 to 0.9, depending on the time (very seldom does it reverse and go into negative). I you are looking for a short setup on an index, I suggest you take a look at DAX, that is, if you have it. The PB on DAX is in a much better place for a short setup, but it has its drawdown too - the wick of the pin is probably too short for a good trade.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #66,876
  • Jun 21, 2010 5:26pm Jun 21, 2010 5:26pm
Any comments on the daily setup on USD/CHF? (PB)

I have the FTA around the 1.200. I'm looking to buy @ 1.1147 and close 50% @1.1177 and move to BE.
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  • #66,877
  • Jun 21, 2010 5:57pm Jun 21, 2010 5:57pm
Quoting ghous
Here's a cherry,

read text in the order given in the chart. (1 then 2 then 3 and so on)

g.
Another great chart example. What I'm starting to see more often after the fact is what you've posted in the chart, that there are usually a few indications of a move and more than one entry to get in.

I need to work on my patience and psychology, I always think they'll only be one chance for a move then it's gone.

You're right the Aussie trade was taking the indecision bar(s) as a gap play, very short term. I wouldn't really class as an A+ so again something I need to work on. I'm more than aware that a few mediocre trades can flatten out a few good trades.

Thanks for the reply
  • #66,878
  • Jun 21, 2010 5:59pm Jun 21, 2010 5:59pm
Quoting slade1986
Any comments on the daily setup on USD/CHF? (PB)

I have the FTA around the 1.200. I'm looking to buy @ 1.1147 and close 50% @1.1177 and move to BE.
Not a pinbar on my charts (FXDD). This appears to be due to the gap that formed over the weekend. I can't give any expert commentary on this, but wouldn't this be suspect because the PB is a result of the gap being filled?
  • #66,879
  • Jun 21, 2010 6:26pm Jun 21, 2010 6:26pm
Quoting joelcf
Hopefully it doesnt stop you posting, really like reading your analysis on them. The way you approach them has definitely made me rethink not only these, but some other setups too (like 'traditional' pin bars) and how/why/if they work. Maybe you just need a big disclaimer in your sig

Also, I propose naming these back to 'Ghous bars'. If Keltner, Bollinger, Donchian, Chaikin, Williams and Fibbonacci can do it...

I like that too. lol G-Bars
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #66,880
  • Jun 21, 2010 7:05pm Jun 21, 2010 7:05pm
Quoting HanSolo
What do you think of the BEOB on daily EURUSD?

Pro:
* VBRN @ 1.2500
* Fib Confluence on daily chart
* Weekly PPZ
* Monthly 150EMA
* With the downtrend

Contra:
* Could be retrace to minor daily TL
* Daily bullish divergence
* Not so much space

I would like to see the daily close below the low of the weekly bar @ 26th Oct 2008 (1.2329) and below the weekly pivot (turquoise line on my chart). FTA and the minor daily TL I mentioned above @ ~1.2258 would be a good point to move to BE.
Nice analysis Hans. I would like to have seen that BEOB rejecting on (not near) the 1.2500, like the BEB in purple. Not a bad setup but as you said, it has some traffic.

I like the Daily PPZ level at the 1.2350, previous bar low. This could help its cause.

I like how you are looking up to higher time frames for clues or confluences with the Daily setup instead of down to lower time frames.

Your target(s) are on the Daily, the time frame that the setup was presented.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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