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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #3,781
  • Jun 20, 2010 8:44am Jun 20, 2010 8:44am
Quoting shahab8b
what do you mean?
ie price not getting higher than the black line I have drawn.
The resistance area here is key for EG.
Attached Image
  • #3,782
  • Jun 20, 2010 8:46am Jun 20, 2010 8:46am
Quoting SanMiguel
ie price not getting higher than the black line I have drawn.
The resistance area here is key for EG.
It may or may not.That's the reason I consider a one touch short opportunity there .
As a general rule, ab=cd pattern retrace 50%. it means around .88.
  • #3,783
  • Jun 20, 2010 8:49am Jun 20, 2010 8:49am
Hi shahab8b,

Great analysis you are doing.

I don't know if someone already ask you - how do you draw your TrendLine with red arrows on MT4 charts(is there an indicator)?

Thanks.
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #3,784
  • Jun 20, 2010 8:54am Jun 20, 2010 8:54am
Quoting tomomi72003
Hi shahab8b,

Great analysis you are doing.

I don't know if someone already ask you - how do you draw your TrendLine with red arrows on MT4 charts(is there an indicator)?

Thanks.

Upload the Pic fro MT4 into a Photo shop or Paint software, do the drawing there.
  • #3,785
  • Jun 20, 2010 9:01am Jun 20, 2010 9:01am
Quoting tomomi72003
Hi shahab8b,

Great analysis you are doing.

I don't know if someone already ask you - how do you draw your TrendLine with red arrows on MT4 charts(is there an indicator)?

Thanks.
I can recommend Paint.NET, it's free and it's very good:

http://www.getpaint.net/index.html
  • #3,786
  • Jun 20, 2010 9:09am Jun 20, 2010 9:09am
Quoting shahab8b
G/U COT

I expect Cable to be capped somewhere between 1.49-1.50, and not more than 1.5075
What settings did you use for this BTW, because when I look on the timing site, the index is around 60:
Attached Image
  • #3,787
  • Jun 20, 2010 9:11am Jun 20, 2010 9:11am
Quoting SanMiguel
What settings did you use for this BTW, because when I look on the timing site, the index is around 60:
I explained in the first page of the thread. I use COT Index Week 13 instead of 26
  • #3,788
  • Edited 10:37am Jun 20, 2010 10:23am | Edited 10:37am
I don't know if anybody has noted that equities have been struggling to get past the levels reached mid-week. What is this about?

One observation is that SPX now is at 1120, which is the 50%& retracement of the 2007-09 drop, and this may have to do with it.

Another observation is the similarities on the monthly charts between the aftermaths of the 2007-09 drop and the 1929 crash.

In both cases the index recovered about 60% of the drop, and in both cases a head and shoulder formation emerged with the shoulders around the 50% level (encircled areas).

The question is whether the striking similarity will continue? Are we in for a significant continuation of the down trend? Certainly, the fundamental picture with sovereign debt crises playing the role the banking crises played in the 30s speaks for that. Time will tell.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gdepression2.jpg Size: 287 KB
  • #3,789
  • Jun 20, 2010 10:31am Jun 20, 2010 10:31am
Quoting medici
The question is whether the striking similarity will continue? Are we in for a significant continuation of the down trend? Certainly, the fundamental picture with sovereign debt crises playing the role the banking crises played in the 30s speaks for that. Time will tell.
Nice! I like those that use historical charts to evaluate current and future situations. Fundamentally this world is in Big trouble. We aren't talking about companies going bankrupt... We are talking about countries going bankrupt!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #3,790
  • Jun 20, 2010 10:36am Jun 20, 2010 10:36am
Quoting MarcVUM
Nice! I like those that use historical charts to evaluate current and future situations. Fundamentally this world is in Big trouble. We aren't talking about companies going bankrupt... We are talking about countries going bankrupt!
Thank you! And agreed, Big Trouble indeed.
  • #3,791
  • Jun 20, 2010 11:18am Jun 20, 2010 11:18am
U.S. Unemployment Rate.

Keep in mind that the True rate is most likely between 15% and 20% as the Govt. is doing a great job at keeping the truth from the public!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: unemployment graph.jpg Size: 97 KB
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #3,792
  • Jun 20, 2010 11:31am Jun 20, 2010 11:31am
Quoting shahab8b
I explained in the first page of the thread. I use COT Index Week 13 instead of 26
Shahab,
Did u see my reply to my PM. If you did, i am sure you would have the courtesy to reply.

Thanks.
  • #3,793
  • Jun 20, 2010 11:40am Jun 20, 2010 11:40am
Quoting MarcVUM
U.S. Unemployment Rate.

Keep in mind that the True rate is most likely between 15% and 20% as the Govt. is doing a great job at keeping the truth from the public!
Very true. Remember Joe Biden's announcement ahead of the last jobs report that it would be a good one? Indicates that the cover up is fully intentional. Sooner or later the implications for US Govt debt will have to be accounted for, and the unsustainability of the policy addressed. Further trouble ahead...
  • #3,794
  • Jun 20, 2010 12:18pm Jun 20, 2010 12:18pm
reviewing some of the post looking for direction of e/u , maybe I missed it but another thing to consider is usd index.

some areas im considering this week
an area of interest is how 8680 area responds ( although bias is down from 8680) a break above and e/u back down.
this week
8830
8680
8526
with an eye on 8620 area

e/u week
1.2497
1.2227
1.1957
with an eye on 2284 area
  • #3,795
  • Jun 20, 2010 1:28pm Jun 20, 2010 1:28pm
Hi first post here. I want to share my view with you all arguments are on the attached pictures.

1.USDx - logical thing to see is an up move.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx.gif Size: 60 KB



2.Gbp/Usd - i will put my stop above 1.5060 ( some highs on the left ) and i want to enter around 1.4960-70. It depends on the Usdx if it hits the 61.8 area and starts to move up I will short the Gbp/Usd.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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3. Aud/Usd - will put my stop 10-15 pips above 0.8800. A nice entry would be 0.8750


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.gif Size: 71 KB





And don't forget to listen to Shahab8b and GeppyG. They are the real sh*t I ve been trading forex for 2 years which is actually pathetic but I ve tried a lot of things a.k.a systems but nothing worked. For 4-5 months now I trade using only s/r , tls , emas , fib , xx00 - xx50 and it works Wish you all profitable week
  • #3,796
  • Jun 20, 2010 1:47pm Jun 20, 2010 1:47pm
Quoting atton
3. Aud/Usd - will put my stop 10-15 pips above 0.8800. A nice entry would be 0.8750
It's quite interesting to see you using the 200ema instead of the 200sma. How has this worked out for you in the past?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #3,797
  • Jun 20, 2010 1:53pm Jun 20, 2010 1:53pm
Quoting MarcVUM
It's quite interesting to see you using the 200ema instead of the 200sma. How has this worked out for you in the past?
Well I was just taught that way. If you put 200 sma and 200 ema you will see that they both work. Sometimes price will stop at 200 sma sometimes will stop at 200ema. I just use my ema's ( 34 and especially 55 and 200 ) for confluence. I will never take a trade based only on lets say 200 ema.

P.S I was just going to say that nothing work in FOREX all the time and all that "wise" words but as I can see you have more than 2x my experience so I will stay quiet
  • #3,798
  • Jun 20, 2010 2:08pm Jun 20, 2010 2:08pm
Quoting Patience
The only newsworthy thing I've read so far this weekend is that the Chinese Yuan looks to be on the move. That might throw some cookie dough into the ice cream. Let's see what the market thinks of it on Sunday/Monday.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d3TSKgnQ&pos=2
Well market is loving it so far. Hope nobody is short. E/U at 1.2475 and A/U at 0.8810.

Be safe
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,799
  • Jun 20, 2010 2:53pm Jun 20, 2010 2:53pm
Quoting Patience
Hope nobody is short. E/U at 1.2475 and A/U at 0.8810.
Yeah I am, and above my stop loss. Small size, but annoying, and that was the risk.
  • #3,800
  • Jun 20, 2010 5:00pm Jun 20, 2010 5:00pm
Quoting jackm1
Short E/U, Daily chart @ 3:00 pm PST

1.2384

SL 30
TP 40

Reason:

Stochs oversold
S/R, R hit reverse

Closed trade: SL Hit -30
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