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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #6,961
  • Jun 18, 2010 3:35am Jun 18, 2010 3:35am
Quoting CharlesSA
PAIR: GBP/USD on Daily TF

While looking through the charts this morning, I came across this setup. Is there any significance to this as a potential sell opportunity?

The retracement has reached 50% fib and is close to RN 1.4900. However, PA is still within the trendline channels. The seems to be nearby SR levels but I am not too sure where to draw these just yet. Fundamentals point to the USD being weak though. Any opinions?
yep. looks good. Attached is the weekly chart. There you can see where you should draw the S/R level.
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  • #6,962
  • Jun 18, 2010 3:43am Jun 18, 2010 3:43am
Quoting Custos
yep. looks good. Attached is the weekly chart. There you can see where you should draw the S/R level.
Yippy Got something right.

Custos, out of interest, where would you place your entry, TP and SL for this setup?
  • #6,963
  • Jun 18, 2010 3:51am Jun 18, 2010 3:51am
Quoting CharlesSA
Yippy Got something right.

Custos, out of interest, where would you place your entry, TP and SL for this setup?
As you mentioned, price is still not out of the retracement channel, thus we cannot place entry, sl and tp yet when you enter hector style.

However, my personal entry would be right now at 1.4868 and stop at 1.5658.
So that is around a 800 pip stop loss. And that is why I am not going to enter that setup. The stop loss is just too wide and it will take me weeks until I get a result of that trade. Too inefficient use of my money.

cheers
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  • #6,964
  • Jun 18, 2010 7:10am Jun 18, 2010 7:10am
Hi Custos

Whilst reviewing some of your previous posts, I noticed you mentioned that Danuk's strategy is the way to go. Is this what your current strategy comprises of, although I see your entries are not strictly around RN's?

Some questions for when you have some time:

 

  1. For e.g. if the short term trend (4hrs) is up, will you ever enter short trades against S/R levels or is it strictly move in the direction of the trend for you, ie. long off S/R levels?
  2. As far as SR levels, do you look for a minimum no. of confluence areas before feeling comfortable to execute a trade?
  3. How many touches of the S/R levels do you wait for and how many touches is your rule of thumb before it gets weaker? I would really appreciate to get a better understanding of your evolved strategy. My concern is that there does not always seem to be regular "Hector Style" trades available unless I am just not yet able to spot them.
  4. No moving averages on your charts??
  5. Could you please explain in a little more detail your ranging strategy... in one of your older post you made 350pips on a ranging day which is very impressive I can see all the charts you have posted but am not yet understanding the point of entry and exit.
  6. Lastly, do you use alerts, and if so how?

I am really trying to avoid asking things that have been asked before... just that the above is not fully clarified in my mind after reading the older posts.

Thanks!

  • #6,965
  • Jun 18, 2010 7:22am Jun 18, 2010 7:22am
[quote=Paulette;3811695]
Quoting randomperson

Still in a USDJPY short from yesterday, and added today.
EURUSD still strong, flipping that pivot I posted earlier.
Will 1.2410 hold? will she drop us some downside action today - it is a waiting game, lets see
it could, though i'd ideally like it higher at around .245 - but have to react and not hope going to be conservative on it and not short unless it reaches that level or if it flips back down
meanwhile...taking it easy today and watching some futbol. quad witching for the u.s. markets, so good day to take off
  • #6,966
  • Jun 18, 2010 9:51am Jun 18, 2010 9:51am
Quoting CharlesSA
Hi Custos

Whilst reviewing some of your previous posts, I noticed you mentioned that Danuk's strategy is the way to go. Is this what your current strategy comprises of, although I see your entries are not strictly around RN's?
yep, it is my trend trading strat, but I don't use it exclusively on daily, also on lower time-frames. And no, I don't care about rn's that much.

Quoting CharlesSA
For e.g. if the short term trend (4hrs) is up, will you ever enter short trades against S/R levels or is it strictly move in the direction of the trend for you, ie. long off S/R levels?
well, again I have two strats, one exclusively committed to trend trading: there I would not enter shorts in an up trend
when range trading, I might enter short, cause then the trend doesn't matter to me.

Quoting CharlesSA
As far as SR levels, do you look for a minimum no. of confluence areas before feeling comfortable to execute a trade?
not anymore, but I used to do that. Let's say the core has always been S/R levels. But it's very good to go with confluence. At your stage, I would take at least 3 confluence factors: horizontal S/R level, trendline, fib number, RN,...

Quoting CharlesSA
How many touches of the S/R levels do you wait for and how many touches is your rule of thumb before it gets weaker? I would really appreciate to get a better understanding of your evolved strategy. My concern is that there does not always seem to be regular "Hector Style" trades available unless I am just not yet able to spot them.
not sure what you mean here. Of course the S/R level should have been touched before, otherwise it would not be an S/R level. But let's say for example. If price broke through an S/R level and touched it the first time from the other side, then that is already my entry signal. Wouldn't wait for a number of touches there, just take it on the first touch.
Oh there are lots of setups as well with regular hector style, but reason why I abandoned it somehow is that there is not always a bpc and the market might move without me, that I would enter late when the trend is already almost half way, and as somebody else mentioned, entering at the breakout gives a lot of fake-outs.

Quoting CharlesSA
No moving averages on your charts??
Nope, but used to have them for a very long time. Again it's just a matter of preference, but I can identify S/R levels better when I don't have any indis on my charts.

Quoting CharlesSA
Could you please explain in a little more detail your ranging strategy... in one of your older post you made 350pips on a ranging day which is very impressive I can see all the charts you have posted but am not yet understanding the point of entry and exit.
okay, first you identify horizontal S/R levels. Actually this is the most important, if you can't do that you will lose with this strat. Then you enter on each touch of an S/R level. Stop is behind the next S/R level and take profit is before a the next S/R level.
Now if one of your entries doesn't work out, meaning price breaks through the S/R level, you wait for price to retest the level from the other side and reverse your position.
Also if price is really shooting into one direction, I will not enter against that momentum, only with it until I see momentum slowing down.
Anyways, try trend trading first, this range trading is very difficult and I am still developing it. Lots of discretion required.

Quoting CharlesSA
Lastly, do you use alerts, and if so how?
yes, I do use alerts, I got a trendline alerter indicator which gives me alerts when price is x number of pips away from my trendline.
  • #6,967
  • Jun 19, 2010 3:31am Jun 19, 2010 3:31am
Thank you very much for the clarification Custos... I truly do appreciate it.

Well, yesterday aternoon when I returned home I pulled the trigger on Forex Tester and all I can say is WOW. This is one neat app. Alex sent me an activation code within 15min allowing me to play with the strats this weekend. Hopefully this will fastrack my understanding of the strats.

Have a great weekend everyone.
  • #6,968
  • Jun 19, 2010 7:45am Jun 19, 2010 7:45am
Quoting CharlesSA
Thank you very much for the clarification Custos... I truly do appreciate it.

Well, yesterday aternoon when I returned home I pulled the trigger on Forex Tester and all I can say is WOW. This is one neat app. Alex sent me an activation code within 15min allowing me to play with the strats this weekend. Hopefully this will fastrack my understanding of the strats.

Have a great weekend everyone.
no problem. Always glad to help. Yeah I think you made a very big and good step by getting the forex tester. If that is not speeding up your learning, then nothing will (but it still might take months or years to be really good at this), just hang in there.
  • #6,969
  • Edited 7:05pm Jun 19, 2010 9:39am | Edited 7:05pm
Custos,
I am reading the Enhancing Trader Perfromance book .... and from what i have read so far i must say that its a great book... i liked the details & explanation on finding trader niche, self discovery, building competence, Trading plan.

Quite a few things the author has mentioned there rings a bell with the approach i have taken towards my own learning & development as a trader, and i felt confident that i am on the correct path ... the concept of crystallizing experiences (the Aha Moments) and the interest generated of that crystallizing experience ...i.e. obsession, combined with immersive learning is the real game changer.

About having a trading plan ....when i was studying TA and trading as a whole i came across the notion of having a trading plan in place, prior to starting to trade ...i was wondering as to how would i know what to put in there interms of which strategies i'll be following when i havent tried them and explored trading as a whole. However, I still wrote a basic plan and set it aside for a major revision at a later date (which i due).... after i read the author propagating the similar strategy i felt that like i made the write choice.

Another important point which emphasized the importance and need to master more than one trading methodology/style is the circular loop nature of trading rather than linear i.e. since market change their personalities i.e. from low volatility period to high volatility period ...from trending to non trending therefore an expert trader should master changing markets to be able to survive in this game i.e. the sense of being able to obtain the skills needed for any foreseeable task. Therefore the important of learning to trade wit the trend as well as trading within a ranging market .....coupled with the ability to trade longer term shorter TF becomes apparent.

I am still reading the book and must say that its quite interesting. Thanks for your referral. I'll add further points as i come across.

Ciao
  • #6,970
  • Jun 19, 2010 10:46pm Jun 19, 2010 10:46pm
By the way once i am done with the previous book i'll go for the above book by the same author ... this one has also got some good reviews.

http://www.amazon.com/Daily-Trading-...owViewpoints=1
  • #6,971
  • Jun 19, 2010 11:25pm Jun 19, 2010 11:25pm
Hello,

I've been trading somewhat similar to this method for some time. But I used only MAs and trendline only. Now that I've found this thread, I'm sure I'll get to learn a lot from here. Thank you all for sharing, I'll try to be active in this thread in the coming days.
  • #6,972
  • Edited Jun 20, 2010 1:05am Jun 19, 2010 11:45pm | Edited Jun 20, 2010 1:05am
Quoting fr600
Hello,

I've been trading somewhat similar to this method for some time. But I used only MAs and trendline only. Now that I've found this thread, I'm sure I'll get to learn a lot from here. Thank you all for sharing, I'll try to be active in this thread in the coming days.
You are welcome on board .....would you like to share some details of the trading method you have been following ...such as type of setups , entries.

any setups on your radar?
  • #6,973
  • Jun 20, 2010 1:06am Jun 20, 2010 1:06am
Quoting MktScape
You are welcome on board .....would you like to share some details of the trading method you have been following ...such as type of setups , entry, SL, trade management and exits.

are you currently watching a setup?
My method is nothing special and it hasn't been very long since I've started trading this way. To be honest, I have not had significant success yet but it seems better than any other way I've traded in the past. It's not a developed method and I'm still working on it.

Well, I use moving averages like I said and I use them excessively... four to be specific: 20, 50, 100, 200 - all expotential. Based on the trend and those moving averages incorporated with price action, I enter when a rejection has occured near the trendline or EMA-100/200 confirmed by prior rejections. Offcourse, price action is very important here. I place SL a little below/above where rejection has occured and TP based on past price and strength of the trend determined by how it's moving. I do move SL to BE once I'm in the safe zone and I monitor my trades for exit signals.

I'm still new and learning and the greatesty challenged I'm facing is the fear of losing money even if it's half a percent of my account. Pardon me if I couldn't explain properly, that's the best I could do with my little knowledge.
  • #6,974
  • Jun 20, 2010 1:48am Jun 20, 2010 1:48am
Interesting method, and a good start.
From my experience, trading price from moving averages doesn't work consistently, and here is why. They are not used by everybody in the market place. What you wanna look at is horizontal S/R, Round numbers, trendlines (which you are already using) and fibs, (maybe pivots as well, even though I don't use them, just make sure you set them to gmt time). The reaction of price from those is much more reliable and the more of those fall together in one place, the better.

Anyways, just read a bit through the thread, there are a couple of methods, but all revolve around S/R levels.

cheers
Quoting fr600
My method is nothing special and it hasn't been very long since I've started trading this way. To be honest, I have not had significant success yet but it seems better than any other way I've traded in the past. It's not a developed method and I'm still working on it.

Well, I use moving averages like I said and I use them excessively... four to be specific: 20, 50, 100, 200 - all expotential. Based on the trend and those moving averages incorporated with price action, I enter when a rejection has occured near the trendline or EMA-100/200 confirmed...
  • #6,975
  • Jun 20, 2010 1:54am Jun 20, 2010 1:54am
Quoting MktScape
By the way once i am done with the previous book i'll go for the above book by the same author ... this one has also got some good reviews.

http://www.amazon.com/Daily-Trading-...owViewpoints=1
cool, thanks for sharing
  • #6,976
  • Jun 20, 2010 10:50pm Jun 20, 2010 10:50pm
wow ...this thing jump high .... took out my stop loss. I think i should close my positions on Friday because we cannot know whats coming following week.

Custos ...do you close out all your positions on Fridays?
  • #6,977
  • Jun 21, 2010 1:24am Jun 21, 2010 1:24am
EUR/USD

Am I right when I say there is a weekly resistance somewhere at 1.24945-1.24975. I expect a decent bounce off of this level should it be correctly identified. Whether it will get this far today is to be seen as there are also two daily resistance levels to push through.

Custos, once you have identified your S/R levels, do you do an order on first touch or wait to first see how PA unfolds around each S/R level?

Anyone have any potential setups to share
  • #6,978
  • Jun 21, 2010 1:41am Jun 21, 2010 1:41am
Quoting MktScape
wow ...this thing jump high .... took out my stop loss. I think i should close my positions on Friday because we cannot know whats coming following week.

Custos ...do you close out all your positions on Fridays?
yep, I always close out everything on friday except if it's based on the daily or if I am massively in profit.
  • #6,979
  • Jun 21, 2010 1:57am Jun 21, 2010 1:57am
Quoting CharlesSA
EUR/USD

Am I right when I say there is a weekly resistance somewhere at 1.24945-1.24975. I expect a decent bounce off of this level should it be correctly identified. Whether it will get this far today is to be seen as there are also two daily resistance levels to push through.

Custos, once you have identified your S/R levels, do you do an order on first touch or wait to first see how PA unfolds around each S/R level?

Anyone have any potential setups to share
wow, if you can identify a weekly resistance with a 3 pips range, then you gonna be soon really rich.
well, it is impossible to get that accurate with weekly resistances. the higher your time-frame, the bigger the S/R level range. My weekly resistance is from 1.2455 - 1.2572. More than a 100 pip range.

I enter on first touch. I want to enter as close to the S/R level as possible. But previous PA is important. If price is just tanking, then I might not enter a trade against that momentum.

well, that weekly resistance is a good level. But again, large stop loss required here.
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  • #6,980
  • Jun 21, 2010 2:07am Jun 21, 2010 2:07am
gbp/usd is also at weekly resistance, would also be good for a short.
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