Trend Trading Chart Thread

PS... anyone else buying BP!?!?!?!

Hi Dan,

I am new in this thread i have a chart for you hope i do ti right any explanations welcome still need to read the most.

Here some info on BP..

Also you can check finviz great site for stocks...

* Angry U.S. lawmakers hammered BP (BP.L)(BP.N) Chief Executive Tony Hayward at a congressional hearing on Thursday, accusing him of evasion and ducking responsibility and his company of taking "extreme risks" that triggered the disaster. [ID:nN17193426]
* BP shares, nearly halved in value since the April 20 explosion on an offshore rig that led to the spill, fell 0.4 percent in New York trade after rallying almost 7 percent in London.
* Investors have welcomed a BP deal with the White House to set up a $20 billion fund for compensation claims arising from the spill as it gives markets clarity on the costs, analysts said.
* Gulf spill damages could reach $100 billion, Louisiana Treasurer John Kennedy told Reuters, adding the $20 billion BP fund is not enough. Kennedy said Louisiana is losing $100 million to $150 million in wages per month. [ID:nN17262575]
* Hayward told the congressional hearing there are many wells in the region with the same casing design as the Macondo well that is spewing oil. [ID:nN17253287]
POLITICS/POLICY
* Republican Representative Joe Barton of Texas apologized to Hayward at the hearing for the White House "shakedown" creating a $20 billion "slush fund." He retracted his apology after it provoked denunciations from his own party. [ID:nN17215901]
* BP faces a huge compensation bill for the cleanup of the spill but also wants clarity on its future, British Prime Minister David Cameron said on Thursday. [ID:nLDE65G26J]
* Britain's finance minister George Osborne told BBC radio that BP "is a very important company, not just to the British economy but to the American economy as well. And we want it to succeed and flourish in the future for all our sakes." [ID:nLDE65G0CM]
* Oil companies will undoubtedly need to review and amend their oil spill response plans in the disaster, U.S. Interior Department's Minerals Management Service head Bob Abbey said on Thursday. [nWNA3647]
COMPANY/MARKETS NEWS
* BP is considering a corporate debt offering of $5 billion to $10 billion as early as next week, sources said. [ID:nN17241734]
* Credit default swaps insuring BP's debt jumped after this report. [ID:nN17243993]
* Standard & Poor's cut BP's credit rating and said it might do so again. [ID:nN17258825]
* BP announced a $10 billion asset sale program as part of the $20 billion escrow fund deal and bankers said most divestments would come from outside the United States. Oppenheimer & Co analyst Fadel Gheit pegged the value of the company's assets at more than $250 billion. [ID:nN16175753]
* BofA Merrill Lynch expects BP's trading operations to be hurt as the company sets up funds for damage claims from the spill and downgraded the stock to "neutral" from "buy." Analysts said the outcome of BP's meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama provided little clarity. [ID:nSGE65G0GF]
* BP has not decided what assets to sell to meet U.S. oil spill costs, the head of its Russian operations said, following rumors its stake in Rosneft (ROSN.MM), Russia's top oil producer, was for sale. [ID:nLDE65G134]
* Russian President Dmitry Medvedev told the Wall Street Journal the spill could lead to the breakup of BP but stopped short of saying Russia would re-evaluate BP's lucrative Russian partnership. [ID:nN17269229]
SPILL CONTAINMENT EFFORTS
* BP is ahead of schedule on drilling a pair of relief wells designed to eventually stop the gushing oil leak but the top U.S. official overseeing the spill response said on Thursday the company still expects to finish them in August. [ID:nN17237329]
* BP's dual oil-handling system collected 14,750 barrels of oil and burned off another 3,850 barrels on Wednesday. Total oil recovered reached 179,000 barrels. [ID:nN17237329]
OIL SLICK THREAT
* The spill has fouled at least 120 miles (190 km) of U.S. coastline, imperiled multibillion-dollar fishing and tourism industries and killed birds, sea turtles and dolphins.
* Fear that oil from the spill will damage Mississippi's coast is hurting the state's economy more than oil damage itself, according to a report

So might be intresting i am also following this not buying it directly..

Here the chart

http://i50.tinypic.com/68zv5d.jpg

I'd try placing an order at round number between 50% and 61.8% ..

Hi Dan,
Good to know that VSA trading method has appealed you .... i think VSA trading on a smaller time frame is a viable strategy. I have listened to Tom Williams seminars and he used S/R areas with VSA strategy and they only look to place a trade only after detecting professional activity (i.e. ultra high volume on wide spread bar) and getting PA confirmation as compared to vol activity or near the S/R zones.
The best source for Forex volume is eSignal as it has the broadest list of contributor however as per my research FXCM Mt4 tick volume compares pretty good with eSignal and is being commonly used with success.

I am attaching some information sources which i have gathered in my own research on this subject ....i hope this would be of help.

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...7&d=1260245477 Master the Markets
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1241431116 Better Vol Indicator explanation
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...d=255031&d=Jun Thinking of Background in Analysis
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1241431116 Better Vol Indicator for Mt4
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1275494596 eSignal Vol Contributors list

Hi Dan, I think that is a good idea. I would also point out that intraday Volume data is fine, but I would be VERY careful with the 4H and Daily data. That has to come from prof data feed. CSI Marktet or esignal cool.

I am tryin to learn the same method what MtkSpace outlined from Tom Williams.

cable close above 8500 and aud close above 88 are all buys for me. from then on it might be bye bye shorts.

Commander - be kind enough to share your intraday with us!

apropos of nothing, Mr Clegg is nuts. this idea of grandparents having visitation rights to their grandchildren is a noble principle, but a law? If i meet Mr Clegg, i intend to tell him that i pay his wages, he is accountable to me and he better to a proper job.

Coolshades - I've got this on the 4 hour. If it doesn't break, do you think it will range or drift back towards support?

Ben,

i use the RN s/r lines in combination with TL and the 50% fib. this i find is the best for me. i might ignore the 50% fib if its above or below the direction in intend to trade.

for me right now cable is not showing any bear strengths. the daily i posted a couple of posts back still holds. as long as the daily upward trendline does not get broken, there are no long term shorts for me.

intraday shorts are a different issue. However there are too many daily green men hammering away at that 4800-4830 line for me to contemplate even going intraday short. in fact, as i speak, i have placed a speculative LONG at 4828ish with a 200 pip stop and aiming for 5000.

AUD looks more interesting from a short perspective because of the very steep upward trendline. however there too i will need break of h4 trendline.

so in short (no pun), no trades for me at all till something happens.



quote=forexben;3811692]Coolshades - I've got this on the 4 hour. If it doesn't break, do you think it will range or drift back towards support?[/quote]

guys (and ladies if there are any on this thread)

what rules do you have for Dan's system? from Zoli's posts i noted that most of us follow the system but we trade very differently.

does it make sense for us to share rules, not necessarily to trade to a common set of rules but to understand how each one of us trades and if necessary take the good bits from one another?

i am more than happy to go first if this is of interest to anyone.

Is there a trend this morning ? Yesterday at this hour was so great...
Maybe there are some important news later...

Coolshades this sums me up pretty well, when i learn to STICK TO MY RULES this is how i trade exactly and in the direction of the trend obviously.

My best trades are trends running counter to higher time-frame trends. Most of the time it's a nice vertical move.

I like your view on the pairs. IMO we need to be careful and I always liked the original methode. I mean, Dan looked at a level and opened a trade when PA was convincing, generally 50 pips later to his direction.
Touch trades do work sometimes, but I would like to be realistic and say, there were some 50% levels the price kind of went through effortlessly so a touch trade would have been a loss. Ok, so it was a loss.

As to your suggestion regarding rules I think it is a good idea. Myself I am learning to trade so my rules, sadly , are not clear.

Non the less I will try to outline my view at these times of my level of competency. I will come back later with it when I have time.

Good trading!

PS: I am now short on EU with a short term position. This is a scalp trade and I consider to do these type of scalps every so often. I am in profit of some 15 pips now and at BE. I decided to let it go either way and I do not take profit. I will not really share these here as this is a longer term trend trading thread. For example. my view on EU is not straight as I need a more aggressive confirmation of downtrend continuation. Hopefully Spain will deliver some bad datas soon so we may go back down. By all means, the market can go still up a lot without the main down trend being broken!

will post a little later, this is a quickie.

try to separate your scalp trading account and long term strategy trading account.

i have one account for 'fun and games' and other for my serious account. so the long on cable i took today is on my 'fun and games' account.

I am trying to keep long term trades at the moment but struggling to be honest, just about every short i have has gone against me in a big way. But i will get there i guess its just the cost of this business we call trading :-)

I will post my trading thoughts and ideas when i get time probably next week, but like allot of you i am still learning so my rules are still evolving.

Zoli, i like these charts mine are the same, it's good to see people drawing there charts the same way i think we are all on the same page

you and me bro. may last week to this week has not been pleasant.

as a friendly advice, you shd relook at your 4% risk per trade. from the maths point of view:

suppose you are trading a $10k account, 4% equates to $400 = 400 pips.

so if one trade loses 400 points, you need to make 400 points to get to break even.

thats a huge move required and requires trades to be kept on for days and days and days needs the trades to go in the same direction to make sure you have no ulcers.



y

folks, my go at my daily system. i had posted 2 wks back that the daily is new for me. till then i was trading the h4.

 

1. open daily
2. draw horizontal s/r levels. s/r levels should be those where there are more than a few touches up and down OR touches where reactions have been extreme
3. adjust key s/r levels to RNs (only 00 and 50)
4. draw sloping trendlines touching highs or lows. TLs should have atleast 3 touches
5. identify long term trend
6. identify most recent high and low and draw 50% fib in direction of long term trend
7. go long if
   1. price at 50% fib or above 50% fib and at key levels, in direction of trend

8. go short if
   1. price at 50% fib or below 50% fib and at key levels,in direction of trend

9. entry:
   1. wait for price to break and close above/below key level on daily
   2. enter on retracement, as close as possible to RN
   3. if price does not retrace - do not chase trade

10. stops:
    1. at 250 pips OR 10-20 pips above last swing high/low, whichever OR ATR + 20, whichever is lower. go for standard stop size of 250 pips in most cases
    2. move stops to b/e once trade moves 100 points
    3. if trade stops out at b/e, look to re-enter if conditions of trade are the same

11. if long term trend exists BUT price also retracing in a shorter trend (LIKE RIGHT NOW ON MAJOR PAIRS), then
    1. draw short term trend line as well
    2. wait for daily to break below/above short term trend line
    3. wait to enter at the next RN in directon of long term trend
    4. DO NOT CHASE TRADE if price slips away

12. Risk:
    1. never more than 2% of account size per trade
    2. do not have more than 5 consecutive trades open

for itchy fingers, experiments:

 

1. trade on smaller micro account for anything and everything else

btw there is no compulsion on anyone to share their system. i am writing this down more for myself than anyone else.

sharing my GU trade with you all.
As you all may be aware, we are in a retracement mode for quite some days. I think this MIGHT be the resumption of a downtrend. Not 100% certain though. Time will tell. However there was a pin bar on GU 4H chart. Also the pin bar occurred at the 50% fibo. Plus price has been struggling to break above the 1.485 region.