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Trend Trading Chart Thread

  • #1,561
  • Jun 15, 2010 11:00pm Jun 15, 2010 11:00pm
Quoting jonpoler
Is it me or has Jacko deviated from the basic premise of selling when the px hits the falling trend line?

As waiting for the px to hit the falling trend might not yield an opportunity for months on end, the last number of trades seem to have been more discretionary.
It doesnt need to bounce the TL all the time. 50% ret and round number are good entries too...
  • #1,562
  • Jun 16, 2010 1:52am Jun 16, 2010 1:52am
Quoting bez3000
audusd sl @ 8700
usdchf sl @ 11255
Where did you enter your AU short ?
  • #1,563
  • Jun 16, 2010 3:25am Jun 16, 2010 3:25am
We all know EUR/USD as being one of the trendiest pairs, but can anyone point me to other good trending pairs without the dollar so as I'm not basically taking the same trade as EUR/USD.
  • #1,564
  • Jun 16, 2010 4:37am Jun 16, 2010 4:37am
my euro short from 21 got stopped out at 2350. no current trades for me. i have quite some making up to do in june on my account.

right now cable, euro, audusd, eurcad, euraud, etc all at significant levels and could go either way.

cable - i am actually tempted to go long at current prices, and in fact have a speculative long at 4800, but this is on my 'fun' micro account

euro - again, not sure if this will go up or down from here, so staying out.

eurcad - has a lot of daily bars pushing against 2650 and think it will burst up.if it does, the next level i will monitor is 29. else will want to see a proper close below 2650.

euraud -want to see close below 4200 on daily to take a short at 4200 on retest.

audusd - yesterday's daily closed very bullishly above 8600 so this might well go to 8700. if the daily closes above 8700, we might see lot of upward movement. Commander - hope you agree with me on this too.

caution - dont BLINDLY take shorts from here on on all these pairs (ie: long $), till we see proper movement downwards.


Commander- intraday system will be good, but please,no scalping. nothing less than 1hr tf.
  • #1,565
  • Jun 16, 2010 4:45am Jun 16, 2010 4:45am
Quoting coolshades
my euro short from 21 got stopped out at 2350. no current trades for me. i have quite some making up to do in june on my account.
That's today's high (for now). Such obvious stop hunting must be really frustrating. But I'd love to know how to do it
  • #1,566
  • Jun 16, 2010 4:57am Jun 16, 2010 4:57am
hmm, most of us on this thread trade long term with our positions open for days/weeks.

so no not really frustrated that i got stopped out. yes my account is down, but my trade was entered on my rules so thats the way the game is played.

also once i enter a trade, i write off the trade mentally, hence can deal with the loss.

Quoting Intensity
That's today's high (for now). Such obvious stop hunting must be really frustrating. But I'd love to know how to do it
  • #1,567
  • Jun 16, 2010 6:46am Jun 16, 2010 6:46am
Quoting coolshades
my euro short from 21 got stopped out at 2350. no current trades for me. i have quite some making up to do in june on my account.

right now cable, euro, audusd, eurcad, euraud, etc all at significant levels and could go either way.

cable - i am actually tempted to go long at current prices, and in fact have a speculative long at 4800, but this is on my 'fun' micro account

euro - again, not sure if this will go up or down from here, so staying out.

eurcad - has a lot of daily bars pushing against 2650 and think it will burst up.if it...
Hi Coolshades

did you already take the gbp long? I think there is resistant @ 1.4800, so im tempted to take the position here but to short it, not long. There is 50% fibo @ 1.4870 too so be careful
  • #1,568
  • Edited 10:03am Jun 16, 2010 6:51am | Edited 10:03am
i took long at 479, exited at 483. lot of pressure at the 482-483 level.

am in no trade now.

EDIT: pending short on AUDUSD at 8600, based on break of upward trendline on H4 and close below 8600 of last h4 bar.

More EDITING: obviously i drew the upwards trendline wrong. not going short right now. watching

Quoting carrot_yuli
Hi Coolshades

did you already take the gbp long? I think there is resistant @ 1.4800, so im tempted to take the position here but to short it, not long. There is 50% fibo @ 1.4870 too so be careful
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  • #1,569
  • Jun 16, 2010 2:30pm Jun 16, 2010 2:30pm
Hi lads

Me got stopped out badly too.
I am looking at these levels myself:

EU - 25 -loosing upside momentum

AU - 87 - loosing upside momentum

GU - 1.5 - loosing momentom too

GJ - 136 - if this trend wants to go down this is a good time

EJ 115

EG 8420

AJ - 78 - if this trend wants to go down this is a good time
Kind Regards zol
  • #1,570
  • Jun 16, 2010 2:48pm Jun 16, 2010 2:48pm
Hi guys,

G/U is looking interesting... this could be the third day that price fails to break 1.4800 - if it closes lower, forming a pin bar I may be interested in selling tomorrow.

E/U is also looking interesting but I think a bearish confirmation candle might be needed before trading it.

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,571
  • Jun 16, 2010 3:10pm Jun 16, 2010 3:10pm
I am watching E/U looks like it might be heading down from 1.2350
but I am waiting for pa.
G/U the same.
CP
  • #1,572
  • Jun 16, 2010 3:34pm Jun 16, 2010 3:34pm
my dailies have still half an hour to go before they close, so anything could happen. but as of now neither the cable nor euro candle are convincing enough to go short. cable daily as of now, STILL has a higher high and higher low than previous even if it is bearish.

euro is even worse since current price is sitting right on top of 2300.

but as i said, half an hour more for candle close, so lets see.

Quoting DanUK
Hi guys,

G/U is looking interesting... this could be the third day that price fails to break 1.4800 - if it closes lower, forming a pin bar I may be interested in selling tomorrow.

E/U is also looking interesting but I think a bearish confirmation candle might be needed before trading it.

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,573
  • Jun 16, 2010 4:10pm Jun 16, 2010 4:10pm
Quoting coolshades
my dailies have still half an hour to go before they close, so anything could happen. but as of now neither the cable nor euro candle are convincing enough to go short. cable daily as of now, STILL has a higher high and higher low than previous even if it is bearish.

euro is even worse since current price is sitting right on top of 2300.

but as i said, half an hour more for candle close, so lets see.
Euro is still not doing anything... but G/U is dropping - I have another hour 'till close and we are down to the 4720s - possible bearish engulfing bar forming. If so, it may be the signal I am waiting for - got to wait until close though! Dammit I wanted an early night tonight too!!
  • #1,574
  • Jun 16, 2010 4:21pm Jun 16, 2010 4:21pm
i am on fxdd mt4 for charting, so my candles close at 10 pm, but will wait up tonite if you do

and to while away the time, why dont you have a look at eurcad daily and let me know what you think about the 2650 level?

Quoting DanUK
Euro is still not doing anything... but G/U is dropping - I have another hour 'till close and we are down to the 4720s - possible bearish engulfing bar forming. If so, it may be the signal I am waiting for - got to wait until close though! Dammit I wanted an early night tonight too!!
  • #1,575
  • Jun 16, 2010 11:14pm Jun 16, 2010 11:14pm
GU is forming bearish engulfing bar.. i take short now.. lots of confluence off the 1.4850 level, fibo 50%, previous swing low and its pretty close to downward TL.
  • #1,576
  • Jun 17, 2010 1:24am Jun 17, 2010 1:24am
i am still out. h4 candle needs to close below the short term upward trendline for me to go short.

Quoting carrot_yuli
GU is forming bearish engulfing bar.. i take short now.. lots of confluence off the 1.4850 level, fibo 50%, previous swing low and its pretty close to downward TL.
  • #1,577
  • Edited 11:20am Jun 17, 2010 2:25am | Edited 11:20am
did you take any of those cable or euro shorts? i am still out. lets see.

EDIT: still out of markets. need to recover lot of pips. hope to do that before month end.

Euro - need to close above 25 or below 23 to be of interes
Cable - above 48 or close below 47 ish
AUD - above 87 or below 86
eurcad - below 2650 or above 2900

basically nothing is happening.

i think the difference between most of us and commander is that none of us (i think bez has) have long term positions open, so these losses hurt. whereas commander is sitting pretty even with these losses, if at all he has lost anything
  • #1,578
  • Jun 17, 2010 1:21pm Jun 17, 2010 1:21pm
Quoting coolshades
did you take any of those cable or euro shorts? I am still out. Lets see.

Edit: Still out of markets. Need to recover lot of pips. Hope to do that before month end.

Euro - need to close above 25 or below 23 to be of interes
cable - above 48 or close below 47 ish
aud - above 87 or below 86
eurcad - below 2650 or above 2900

basically nothing is happening.

I think the difference between most of us and commander is that none of us (i think bez has) have long term positions open, so these losses hurt. Whereas commander is sitting pretty even with...
For me:

EU/GU/AU - interresting

EURCAD- I do this with a small position as the set up is not bad to me but I would like it in another location the most. Pin bar exercise

Gold - I am long. I hope for a break out.

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Kind Regards zol
  • #1,579
  • Edited Jun 18, 2010 1:02am Jun 17, 2010 3:53pm | Edited Jun 18, 2010 1:02am
euro - 1st chart- daily is climbing an UPWARD trendline which is showing no signs of breaking. i need to see a break of that trendline to go short. right now the break has to be at 23 but if price climbs more, it will be at higher levels. price has already broken an intermediate downward trendline, though the very long term one remains intact.

cable - 4th chart - similarly climbing an upward trendline. 4800 is one powerful muthafucka and if price closes above that, i do expect price to go to 5000 before being capped.


audusd -2nd chart - same story with upward climbing. however this upward climb is extremely steep and we might well see a break here. point to watch for me is 8700.

EDIT - am off to sleep and am placing a limit sell on AU at 87 as a touch trade. low lot size tho since i will not be around to monitor.

EDIT - i was hoping the AUD short would give me a million pips when i woke up. sadly its still stuck. i am closing it now for 10 pips. not enough to buy a Big Mac. reason i closed - h4 bars are all having higher lows.

eurcad - 3rd chart - from this chart its obvious why i favour 2900 or 2650 but nothing right now. btw if you have taken that pin, would suggest caution. i am on fxdd mt4 and that pin to me is very high risk and nor does it look proper pinnish.

i dont trade gold so no comments.

i have lost many pips these 10 days. no point in rushing in a trade.
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  • #1,580
  • Jun 17, 2010 4:26pm Jun 17, 2010 4:26pm
Quoting coolshades
did you take any of those cable or euro shorts? i am still out. lets see.

Hi Coolshades,

I took the G/U short - it's not looking great at the moment but I think it could well be a trend defining trade - that is if it fails I might consider starting to look for G/U longs.

I decided to hold back on E/U because it wasn't at the level I wanted and in my limited knowledge of candlestick patterns I believe yesterday's bar signaled indecision.

Also, in my search for a little intraday action I decided to look further into VSA - a trading method largely dismissed in Forex due to the volume data issue. It actually makes a lot of sense to me, and again in my limited knowledge I do see various signs showing that the downward trend is likely to continue very soon. Time will tell on this of course and I am not placing any trades based on it (as I am only a beginner in the VSA world) but it's something to watch!

Regarding recent losses - you are right in that I am in the fortunate position of holding quite a few open positions that ensure my recent loss (I took a hit on E/U too the other day) doesn't hurt too much. However, I believe many of these losses are because of jumping the gun and not wanting to miss getting back into the trend. It's easy to say sit back and wait... but even I get an itchy trigger finger sometimes - again, that E/U trade that I took a loss on I believe was due to wanting to get in on a trade rather than getting in a trade for the right reasons! Then again losses happen…

Regards,

Dan
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