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Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

  • #3,881
  • Jun 17, 2010 8:41pm Jun 17, 2010 8:41pm
AUD.USD is forming and ending diagnoal which has its roof at almost 87 , i wont be surprised to see it making some serious ret. tomorrow
but when i look to the eur i see more upside to test maybe 1.2450 ,
trading a break of the diagonal on the aud.usd might be safer for the medium term , a break or even a test back to 86 would be a break down for that pair ,
  • #3,882
  • Jun 17, 2010 8:41pm Jun 17, 2010 8:41pm
Quoting Saxon
Hey Amy,
What is your Roof for GU over the next few days?
Here are the 2 targets I have for GU. I think it will test 23 for a few then proceed through to next fib/FE , test and if it can move through, find the wall at 1.5 with a wide stop. This is all assuming this rally continues through tomorrow.
  • #3,883
  • Jun 17, 2010 8:41pm Jun 17, 2010 8:41pm
Quoting Saxon
Here are the 2 targets I have for GU. I think it will test 23 for a few then proceed through to next fib/FE , test and if it can move through, find the wall at 1.5 with a wide stop. This is all assuming this rally continues through tomorrow.
forgot the chart
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  • #3,884
  • Jun 17, 2010 8:44pm Jun 17, 2010 8:44pm
going forward on the AUD.USD without a proper retrace aint a healthy rally ,, this pair rallied around 600 pips now without a proper retracment , if u see the rally that took the price up to the 93 levels before the move down , it was forming a proper retracment every couple of hundred pips up ,,, i think going forward past the 87 level and into the 88s cant be done under this current rally,
  • #3,885
  • Jun 17, 2010 8:45pm Jun 17, 2010 8:45pm
Quoting Saxon
After 20-25 I will set my SL to BE + a few and if it continues, set a 15-20 pip trail and move on to the next trade. What is you opening SL. I am setting my to 8720
Daily R1 is at 8721. I would hate to see you get stopped out 1 pip shy of a nice bounce down from there! I'll probably put my S/L just above 8700, take a hit if need be and re-short at Daily R1.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #3,886
  • Jun 17, 2010 8:46pm Jun 17, 2010 8:46pm
Quoting Saxon
I am not going to miss it by 1 or 2 pips. I think I will enter 5-10 ahead of target
I hear you. Hopefully I am awake for it but before I go to bed each night I'll stick to your advice and set the sell order 10 below.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #3,887
  • Jun 17, 2010 8:48pm Jun 17, 2010 8:48pm
Quoting Jesus4forex
AUD.USD is forming and ending diagnoal which has its roof at almost 87 , i wont be surprised to see it making some serious ret. tomorrow
but when i look to the eur i see more upside to test maybe 1.2450 ,
trading a break of the diagonal on the aud.usd might be safer for the medium term , a break or even a test back to 86 would be a break down for that pair ,
Well, that was precise!!!

An ending diagonal (5 wave EW) should retrace to the base of wave one, which in this case will be around 85-8515. But the question is whether it behaves like one or not, N/U has similar pattern, I guess it's a bit more mature than A/U.It means I expect that to drop before A/U.
  • #3,888
  • Jun 17, 2010 8:56pm Jun 17, 2010 8:56pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Daily R1 is at 8721. I would hate to see you get stopped out 1 pip shy of a nice bounce down from there! I'll probably put my S/L just above 8700, take a hit if need be and re-short at Daily R1.
Haha, knowing me and my luck that would totally happen. I will probably tighten it up a bit. Thanks for brining that up
  • #3,889
  • Jun 17, 2010 9:00pm Jun 17, 2010 9:00pm
You guys dont trade Gold but I post it in case you might want to take a look at it. It's whether a triple top or an ascending triangle.The latter will be easy to trade. A terminal thrust will end up somewhere around 1300 which satisfy the wave 5th of the pattern .Then it will be the short opportunity of the month.
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  • #3,890
  • Jun 17, 2010 9:01pm Jun 17, 2010 9:01pm
Quoting shahab8b
Well, that was precise!!!

An ending diagonal (5 wave EW) should retrace to the base of wave one, which in this case will be around 85-8515. But the question is whether it behaves like one or not, N/U has similar pattern, I guess it's a bit more mature than A/U.It means I expect that to drop before A/U.
well even the s&p 500 just broke up today from what appears to be 4th wave and going to the 5th wave up , Divergance is all over the indicators on all charts ,,, last time we seen a rally like this in AUD , a more than 500 pips rally , it was retracing an average of 250 pips every push up then starts to rally again
but ,, if it breaks the diagonal down ,, the initial target will be the 4th wave base as u said shahab but if that is the c wave up to complete the ABC correction of the big 5 waves down ,, then 85 should break lower ,, but if this a start of a new trend then the most porper level to long is the 4th wave base ,
one last thing i learned ,,, when everyone is stalking a short at the 87 level and everyone is gearing up for it ,, it always fails so shy from it or earlier than expected , so thats something to consider too
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  • #3,891
  • Jun 17, 2010 9:02pm Jun 17, 2010 9:02pm
Quoting Jesus4forex
well even the s&p 500 just broke up today from what appears to be 4th wave and going to the 5th wave up , Divergance is all over the indicators on all charts ,,, last time we seen a rally like this in AUD , a more than 500 pips rally , it was retracing an average of 250 pips every push up then starts to rally again
but ,, if it breaks the diagonal down ,, the initial target will be the 4th wave base as u said shahab but if that is the c wave up to complete the ABC correction of the big 5 waves down ,, then 85 should break lower ,, but if this a...
and some other scenario is that it could fake a break up from this diagonal and then reverse right awaye down
  • #3,892
  • Jun 17, 2010 9:05pm Jun 17, 2010 9:05pm
Quoting Jesus4forex
well even the s&p 500 just broke up today from what appears to be 4th wave and going to the 5th wave up...
Good EW count, would you mind posting your EW count for daily chart?

BTW, what has happened to your other account?Do you still have the blog?
  • #3,893
  • Jun 17, 2010 9:06pm Jun 17, 2010 9:06pm
Quoting Jesus4forex
and some other scenario is that it could fake a break up from this diagonal and then reverse right awaye down
but a dicipline way to trade this is to wait for the triangle break down lower at 86 to start a short ,, and if breaking higher , then a close follow for the wave formation to stalk the end of it and short , but longing here is not good as its not a healthy rally without a decent correction
  • #3,894
  • Jun 17, 2010 9:09pm Jun 17, 2010 9:09pm
Quoting Saxon
Haha, knowing me and my luck that would totally happen. I will probably tighten it up a bit. Thanks for brining that up
Saxon, take a look at EURCHF, bullish Div at 4hr, the levels are clear.
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  • #3,895
  • Jun 17, 2010 9:09pm Jun 17, 2010 9:09pm
Oh come on! 8691???
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #3,896
  • Jun 17, 2010 9:10pm Jun 17, 2010 9:10pm
That better not have been the AU hit... Missed by 2 pips
  • #3,897
  • Jun 17, 2010 9:11pm Jun 17, 2010 9:11pm
Quoting Saxon
That better not have been the AU hit... Missed by 2 pips
Darn it!!!!
http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/3/3_8_14.gif
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #3,898
  • Jun 17, 2010 9:11pm Jun 17, 2010 9:11pm
Quoting shahab8b
Good EW count, would you mind posting your EW count for daily chart?

BTW, what has happened to your other account?Do you still have the blog?
here u go ,,, leading diagonal first wave ,, and strong fifth wave down , we seen so far A & B but we r witnessing the C which could be tricky ,, as a 5 waves up could be a bullish signal for some but it fact it could be just a wave c up
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  • #3,899
  • Jun 17, 2010 9:12pm Jun 17, 2010 9:12pm
Quoting shahab8b
Saxon, take a look at EURCHF, bullish Div at 4hr, the levels are clear.
Oh wow, that is definitely a Bull Div.
  • #3,900
  • Jun 17, 2010 9:13pm Jun 17, 2010 9:13pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Darn it!!!!
http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/3/3_8_14.gif
I will be royally upset if she goes down now. I will probably turn my terminal off and play XBOX until my eyes bleed.
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