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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #3,721
  • Jun 17, 2010 9:12am Jun 17, 2010 9:12am
Quoting goods
Patience thank you ever so much I re-read your post I see the ascending triangle, you got a point there is resistance yet ascending traingle, bullish divergence, bearish divergence. I guess as you say take your pick. GL to us both.

I am humbled by your posting Patience. I have been really trying to spot the market at both angles and see whose argument is more credible, we all know this could range down again before back up, never know. Bears and bulls have been fighting for a long time on this range. Something has to give.
That's what makes a market - we all see different things. US data has put a dampener on it though and the bloody Yen doesn't want to come to the party. I'm playing A/J. Indices sliding into the red now. Your bet looks to be the one to pay off
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,722
  • Jun 17, 2010 9:13am Jun 17, 2010 9:13am
Quoting Patience
That's what makes a market - we all see different things. US data has put a dampener on it though and the bloody Yen doesn't want to come to the party. I'm playing A/J. Indices sliding into the red now. Your bet looks to be the one to pay off

Did you know Igrok has a book? check this out "Beat the Odds in Forex Trading", you can download the pdf version on the net.
  • #3,723
  • Jun 17, 2010 9:15am Jun 17, 2010 9:15am
Entered Short G/U @ 2:22 pm PST, daily chart
1.4720
SP = 40
TP = 50
Reason: CCI Diverg on daily chart

Closed trade with TP = + 50

Enter Short NZ/U
0.6965 on 4H chart @ 7:57 pm CST
SL 30
TP 30
Reason
CCI Divergence on 4H
Closed trade with SL= - 30


Total Gain / Loss = 20
  • #3,724
  • Jun 17, 2010 9:16am Jun 17, 2010 9:16am
Shorting NASDAQ futures here, very short term
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  • #3,725
  • Jun 17, 2010 9:16am Jun 17, 2010 9:16am
Quoting puks
HI Patience,

How are you doing? tradingwise and otherwise?

you are right - market wants to go up but this is a bear market correction IMHO. I am seeing this rallies as a great selling opportunities for medium term, esp in EUR and more importantly in Cable.

AU's topside is limited against .8740-60 zone, IMHO.

We could see another rate rise or two before the year ends, IF situation in EZ gets better and inflation rises in Q2.
Hey Puks - going good, thanks. How is your 1% per day target going? I'm far from that I haven't been looking too far into the future. Just ninja'ing. Saves analysing too much These hours are my best trading times so I better get back on it.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,726
  • Jun 17, 2010 9:17am Jun 17, 2010 9:17am
Quoting Patience
Hey Puks - going good, thanks. How is your 1% per day target going? I'm far from that I haven't been looking too far into the future. Just ninja'ing. Saves analysing too much These hours are my best trading times so I better get back on it.
#3725
  • #3,727
  • Jun 17, 2010 9:19am Jun 17, 2010 9:19am
Quoting shahab8b
Did you know Igrok has a book? check this out "Beat the Odds in Forex Trading", you can download the pdf version on the net.
Yes, I did. He is writing another one. He used to have this old website (before his new one) and when Cable was way up in the $2.00 area he had said that it would touch 1.35. I remember thinking "yeah right" I wonder when that is going to happen. Then the GFC showed it's ugly face and I soon had my answer I big calls like that!
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,728
  • Jun 17, 2010 9:48am Jun 17, 2010 9:48am
HI Shabah and Geppyg,
I have a question for you. As you know weekly close of S&P over 1107 and DOW of over 10299 is very important for the market. I think most of the fund managers in the US are watching this weeks close very carefully. Do you think the big boys would allow this to happen? or would you think some kind of a news will hit the radar and push both down below these critical levels? I am more inclined to go for the later. I have been building up shorts for on DOW this session, my target is 10250, but not sure if this would happen. I also got SL on EU but went 3 lots short at 1.2410 ( Limit order which just got hit). Time to start biting nails........
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #3,729
  • Jun 17, 2010 9:53am Jun 17, 2010 9:53am
Quoting Patience
Hey Puks - going good, thanks. How is your 1% per day target going? I'm far from that I haven't been looking too far into the future. Just ninja'ing. Saves analysing too much These hours are my best trading times so I better get back on it.
Hi Patience,

I am in the ballpark range. A couple of good trades and I will be on ahead of my target. I am not too far off. Perhaps another 200-300 pips would get me there.

And yes, I am trading micro lots (wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy lower than my multi mini lots or sometimes full lots) so in terms of pips, I am definitely making pips.
  • #3,730
  • Jun 17, 2010 10:35am Jun 17, 2010 10:35am
S&P 500 futures Long here,
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  • #3,731
  • Jun 17, 2010 10:53am Jun 17, 2010 10:53am
E/U buy limit missed again
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  • #3,732
  • Jun 17, 2010 10:57am Jun 17, 2010 10:57am
Quoting tradoholic
HI Shabah and Geppyg,
I have a question for you. As you know weekly close of S&P over 1107 and DOW of over 10299 is very important for the market. I think most of the fund managers in the US are watching this weeks close very carefully. Do you think the big boys would allow this to happen? or would you think some kind of a news will hit the radar and push both down below these critical levels? I am more inclined to go for the later. I have been building up shorts for on DOW this session, my target is 10250, but not sure if this would happen. I also...

Hi there,

I'm cautiously bullish for now. You saw my Bat pattern, I wont sell before my target on A/U/SP/DJI . But it doesn't matter as far as you are selling the very high (like 1.24 in E/U) .You are trading excellent
  • #3,733
  • Jun 17, 2010 11:05am Jun 17, 2010 11:05am
Quoting puks
Hi Patience,

I am in the ballpark range. A couple of good trades and I will be on ahead of my target. I am not too far off. Perhaps another 200-300 pips would get me there.

And yes, I am trading micro lots (wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy lower than my multi mini lots or sometimes full lots) so in terms of pips, I am definitely making pips.
Have you found it takes the stress off you now that you are trading micro lots? Do you see the charts differently/more clearly? Hey, if you can beat these guys average, then you are doing really well. You could open your own hedge fund and smash these returns.

http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2010/...fx-trader.html
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,734
  • Jun 17, 2010 12:06pm Jun 17, 2010 12:06pm
Quoting Patience
That's what makes a market - we all see different things. US data has put a dampener on it though and the bloody Yen doesn't want to come to the party. I'm playing A/J. Indices sliding into the red now. Your bet looks to be the one to pay off
Yes sir, I have been trying to position trade an entry but everything just keeps ranging. AU getting bearish again I might re-short. I closed out for 35 pips earlier. Ill post anything else I find tonight for you guys.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #3,735
  • Jun 17, 2010 12:08pm Jun 17, 2010 12:08pm
Quoting Patience
Have you found it takes the stress off you now that you are trading micro lots? Do you see the charts differently/more clearly? Hey, if you can beat these guys average, then you are doing really well. You could open your own hedge fund and smash these returns.

http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2010/...fx-trader.html

I only trade 5K lots right now but so far I Have not taken one loss. I took 5 positions this week 3 were all profitable for 30+ pips each, 2 were break even stopouts. I am fine with this as it has been money management that makes a trader successful. And patience. Once I get my account up some more I will keep trading between 5K to 10K lots.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #3,736
  • Jun 17, 2010 12:08pm Jun 17, 2010 12:08pm
according to my astro chsrt gold is entering a negative period for about 2 weeks. Good time to sell. Same will be for commodity currencies. Good Luck...
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #3,737
  • Jun 17, 2010 12:36pm Jun 17, 2010 12:36pm
Quoting goods
Yes sir, I have been trying to position trade an entry but everything just keeps ranging. AU getting bearish again I might re-short. I closed out for 35 pips earlier. Ill post anything else I find tonight for you guys.
I got Hong Kong chop sueyed on A/J but came out all right in the end. Got a couple of soldiers stuck up higher but they can have a little rest. We are entering Summer time - it usually ranges June/July/August and then the real stuff starts again in September. Not sure if this year is going to be the same though - we seem to be knee jerking over any little news release. Be safe.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,738
  • Jun 17, 2010 12:37pm Jun 17, 2010 12:37pm
Quoting goods
I only trade 5K lots right now but so far I Have not taken one loss. I took 5 positions this week 3 were all profitable for 30+ pips each, 2 were break even stopouts. I am fine with this as it has been money management that makes a trader successful. And patience. Once I get my account up some more I will keep trading between 5K to 10K lots.
You know you are trading the right size positions when you can go to sleep without a hitch leaving your positions comfortably in the market.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,739
  • Jun 17, 2010 12:44pm Jun 17, 2010 12:44pm
Quoting tradoholic
according to my astro chsrt gold is entering a negative period for about 2 weeks. Good time to sell. Same will be for commodity currencies. Good Luck...
I took short at 1250, the pattern looks like an ascending triangle though, lets see if it fails.
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  • #3,740
  • Jun 17, 2010 12:48pm Jun 17, 2010 12:48pm
Quoting Patience
You know you are trading the right size positions when you can go to sleep without a hitch leaving your positions comfortably in the market.
Sorry to hear about ya trade. there are others well find some. I have noticed that when I take my time to wait for the right setup that is when I join the winning team, If ya have skype shoot me a pm with your skype ID ill add ya.

If it is one thing I noticed it is look at the big picture where has that trend been for a year, is that trend attempting to retrace 50% plus during that year if it fails to do so I continue trend sentiment. It wasnt till I adjusted my trade sized did I become successful. The P/L does not look that of someone who does that full time but I learned to realize I am doing good for the sizes that I am using.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
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