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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #3,701
  • Jun 17, 2010 6:59am Jun 17, 2010 6:59am
Quoting shahab8b
Regarding COT, it seems the long term uptrend is reversing into a downtrend, if we see Net turning negative finally, COT is 0 means we should see Upward move which has been happening since last week.
Be careful shorting now,always have your SL in place.
I dont understand if we see a reverse to a downtrend on the aud why would there be a move upward? If buying is dying off and Net turing is negative cot heading to 0 wouldn't that mean it would be more logical to sell audusd?
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #3,702
  • Jun 17, 2010 7:07am Jun 17, 2010 7:07am
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Patience,
How has trading treated you this week?
Thanks for the post, it seems those guys are fighting the uptrend. I'm sure lots of experience traders are doing the same thing. Unfortunately I stopped out on my G/U long trade due to a tight SL.
Hey Shahab - yeah, good good, thanks. That's a shame you got stopped out on Cable - nice upmove although I didn't trade it. Just on A/J as usual. I just popped into the Cable thread and Navin was calling for 1.50 today. I asked him when was the last time Cable did a 355 pip upmove in a day but I didn't get a reply. Man, I must be out of touch with Cable if it can do a 355 pip upmove in a day. Need to look at my stats.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,703
  • Jun 17, 2010 7:12am Jun 17, 2010 7:12am
Quoting Patience
Hey Shahab - yeah, good good, thanks. That's a shame you got stopped out on Cable - nice upmove although I didn't trade it. Just on A/J as usual. I just popped into the Cable thread and Navin was calling for 1.50 today. I asked him when was the last time Cable did a 355 pip upmove in a day but I didn't get a reply. Man, I must be out of touch with Cable if it can do a 355 pip upmove in a day. Need to look at my stats.
It will get there but not in a day, give it a bit more time. I think it will be capped before 1.5075.
  • #3,704
  • Jun 17, 2010 7:18am Jun 17, 2010 7:18am
Quoting shahab8b
It will get there but not in a day, give it a bit more time. I think it will be capped before 1.5075.
Just looking at A/U. Divergence both ways - depends on which one you want to trust. Risk is on, indices green and sentiment the right way for it to break up. Only done 60% of it's AWR, could be good for another 100 pips up by the end of the week. Just can't trust this market since we are knee jerking on headlines.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,705
  • Jun 17, 2010 7:25am Jun 17, 2010 7:25am
Quoting Patience
Just looking at A/U. Divergence both ways - depends on which one you want to trust. Risk is on, indices green and sentiment the right way for it to break up. Only done 60% of it's AWR, could be good for another 100 pips up by the end of the week. Just can't trust this market since we are knee jerking on headlines.

Attachment
I'm bullish on that one till .88-.885

My old chart
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  • #3,706
  • Jun 17, 2010 7:28am Jun 17, 2010 7:28am
Quoting goods
I dont understand if we see a reverse to a downtrend on the aud why would there be a move upward? If buying is dying off and Net turing is negative cot heading to 0 wouldn't that mean it would be more logical to sell audusd?

Please read through my COT posts in this thread. There are COT Net and Index,COT index 0 means there is a chance of upward moves.
  • #3,707
  • Jun 17, 2010 7:40am Jun 17, 2010 7:40am
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Patience,
Unfortunately I stopped out on my G/U long trade due to a tight SL.
I entered long at 1.4650 as I was anticipating stronger than forecast retail sales number. My basis was ::

a) Stronger employment numbers (has been for the past few months)
b) Lower forecast so I was quite confident of stronger retail sales number.

Last night I entered a heavy short at a psych 1.4850, cleared at 1.4720 and today I entered a long at 1.4650 which I cleared at 1.4800.

Cheers
  • #3,708
  • Jun 17, 2010 7:44am Jun 17, 2010 7:44am
Quoting shahab8b
I'm bullish on that one till .88-.885

My old chart
It would struggle to go past .8730-40 region. Major S and now a great R.

Levels to watch IMHO are:

8690
8710
8734
8760

A daily close above .8760 and all bets are OFF.
  • #3,709
  • Jun 17, 2010 7:44am Jun 17, 2010 7:44am
Quoting puks
I entered long at 1.4650 as I was anticipating stronger than forecast retail sales number. My basis was ::

a) Stronger employment numbers (has been for the past few months)
b) Lower forecast so I was quite confident of stronger retail sales number.

Last night I entered a heavy short at a psych 1.4850, cleared at 1.4720 and today I entered a long at 1.4650 which I cleared at 1.4800.

Cheers

Hi mate,
Excellent trading, well done
  • #3,710
  • Jun 17, 2010 7:47am Jun 17, 2010 7:47am
i am long at usdchf @ 1.1139

SL 1.1120
TP 1.1190

Is this a sane trade with bad numbers for USD ?
  • #3,711
  • Jun 17, 2010 7:51am Jun 17, 2010 7:51am
Quoting shahab8b
Hi mate,
Excellent trading, well done
Cheers buddy.

What I have noticed is Cable pays more importance to psych levels and thats where its stops are usually placed so you get a spike up/down to hunt those stops around 00 or 50 level which gives you a good opportunity to enter a trade.

Cheers
  • #3,712
  • Jun 17, 2010 7:54am Jun 17, 2010 7:54am
Seeing bigger divergence on 4 hr tf for AU
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #3,713
  • Jun 17, 2010 7:57am Jun 17, 2010 7:57am
E/U
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  • #3,714
  • Jun 17, 2010 7:58am Jun 17, 2010 7:58am
Quoting anti
i am long at usdchf @ 1.1139

SL 1.1120
TP 1.1190

Is this a sane trade with bad numbers for USD ?
Hi there,
We have a rule in this thread.No trade call without a chart.
  • #3,715
  • Jun 17, 2010 8:06am Jun 17, 2010 8:06am
U/Cad
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  • #3,716
  • Jun 17, 2010 8:13am Jun 17, 2010 8:13am
actually i am in office.
cant post any charts.
can you please help me with this Shahab
  • #3,717
  • Jun 17, 2010 8:16am Jun 17, 2010 8:16am
Quoting goods
Seeing bigger divergence on 4 hr tf for AU
Divergence is fine but you need corresponding PA. As I showed on my 4 hour A/U chart before we also have hidden bullish divergence. To me, this market wants to go up - to you this market wants to go down. Place your bets
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,718
  • Jun 17, 2010 8:25am Jun 17, 2010 8:25am
E/U long here
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  • #3,719
  • Jun 17, 2010 8:28am Jun 17, 2010 8:28am
Quoting Patience
Divergence is fine but you need corresponding PA. As I showed on my 4 hour A/U chart before we also have hidden bullish divergence. To me, this market wants to go up - to you this market wants to go down. Place your bets
Patience thank you ever so much I re-read your post I see the ascending triangle, you got a point there is resistance yet ascending traingle, bullish divergence, bearish divergence. I guess as you say take your pick. GL to us both.

I am humbled by your posting Patience. I have been really trying to spot the market at both angles and see whose argument is more credible, we all know this could range down again before back up, never know. Bears and bulls have been fighting for a long time on this range. Something has to give.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #3,720
  • Jun 17, 2010 8:30am Jun 17, 2010 8:30am
Quoting Patience
Divergence is fine but you need corresponding PA. As I showed on my 4 hour A/U chart before we also have hidden bullish divergence. To me, this market wants to go up - to you this market wants to go down. Place your bets
HI Patience,

How are you doing? tradingwise and otherwise?

you are right - market wants to go up but this is a bear market correction IMHO. I am seeing this rallies as a great selling opportunities for medium term, esp in EUR and more importantly in Cable.

AU's topside is limited against .8740-60 zone, IMHO.

We could see another rate rise or two before the year ends, IF situation in EZ gets better and inflation rises in Q2.
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