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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #3,681
  • Jun 16, 2010 5:02pm Jun 16, 2010 5:02pm
Quoting jackm1
Entered Short G/U @ 2:22 pm PST, daily chart

1.4720

SP = 30
TP = 30

Reason: CCI Diverg on daily chart

Hi there,

There are two things I would like to mention.

1-I'm still waiting for you to explain the type of statistical analysis and the model you used based on COT data.

2-As I pointed out couple of times before. Whoever posts a trade call in this thread needs to provide a chart explaining the reasons.

Regards
Shahab
  • #3,682
  • Jun 16, 2010 5:05pm Jun 16, 2010 5:05pm
@Shahab
I am waiting for your trading signal. Do you post trade idea on thread other than 600 pips a month ?
  • #3,683
  • Jun 16, 2010 5:17pm Jun 16, 2010 5:17pm
Quoting tradoholic
HI SHahab,
I reached my target in AU short and closed. Will re enter if it crosses .8565. Got 55 pips there.
Still short on EU. Interestingly the drop happened in Saturn hour which kicked in from 21:35 Sydney time through to 21:45. We stilll have amother 5 min to go. Next one is at 5:48 am. Closing my short on DOW till then as well with 35 pips only. Will wait and see If I can re-enter towards session end, Astrological hours point to a drop in the afternoon hope they are right.

Good luck and safe trading....

Well done, nice trading .
  • #3,684
  • Jun 16, 2010 5:19pm Jun 16, 2010 5:19pm
Shahab I posted on another thread. I found divergence here, I have a short at b/e sl right now. What do you think? Sorry if the picture is a bit small trying to figure out how to post them normal sizes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #3,685
  • Jun 16, 2010 5:33pm Jun 16, 2010 5:33pm
Quoting goods
Shahab I posted on another thread. I found divergence here, I have a short at b/e sl right now. What do you think? Sorry if the picture is a bit small trying to figure out how to post them normal sizes

Nice trade, it will fall further unless it's making an ending diagonal which needs another push higher before a sharp.
  • #3,686
  • Jun 16, 2010 5:33pm Jun 16, 2010 5:33pm
A/U
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  • #3,687
  • Jun 16, 2010 5:35pm Jun 16, 2010 5:35pm
Quoting shahab8b
Nice trade, it will fall further unless it's making an ending diagonal which needs another push higher before a sharp.
Thanks for the input I think I might actually move my sl to 8680 and just sleep on this. Any thoughts for that?
my entry is 8651 after it failed to close above 8650 about 3 hours ago
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #3,688
  • Jun 16, 2010 5:37pm Jun 16, 2010 5:37pm
Quoting goods
Thanks for the input I think I might actually move my sl to 8680 and just sleep on this. Any thoughts for that?
my entry is 8651 after it failed to close above 8650 about 3 hours ago

No, keep your Sl at B/E
  • #3,689
  • Jun 16, 2010 5:39pm Jun 16, 2010 5:39pm
Quoting shahab8b
No, keep your Sl at B/E
Yea yer right she is either gonna drop or she needs a lot of momentum to get back up to that price
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #3,690
  • Jun 16, 2010 5:43pm Jun 16, 2010 5:43pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi there,

There are two things I would like to mention.

1-I'm still waiting for you to explain the type of statistical analysis and the model you used based on COT data.

2-As I pointed out couple of times before. Whoever posts a trade call in this thread needs to provide a chart explaining the reasons.

Regards
Shahab
Hello Shahab,


1. Sure, if I could find the analysis I would love to send you but its been done some time ago, however I can summarize for you what I did.

I basically took Non-comm versus other categories and see how they fared following week with the COT. It was all recorded in excel sheets and I need to figure out where those sheets are. Last time I tried it to send to Larry Williams in zip format, whose book I purchased about COT.

I also did some mean-reversion analysis, where I would look at extreme conditions showing in COT and where the std deviations 1 sigma, 2 sigma would occur, ofcourse in context of COT.

2. I tried posting picture several times but I keep getting very small picture that one can not comprehend. I use SNAGit application for that.
I will try again and experiment with MS-paint, perhaps that may work.

Hopefully I answered your questions, if not, I will try again.
  • #3,691
  • Jun 16, 2010 6:03pm Jun 16, 2010 6:03pm
Quoting jackm1
Hello Shahab,


1. Sure, if I could find the analysis I would love to send you but its been done some time ago, however I can summarize for you what I did.

I basically took Non-comm versus other categories and see how they fared following week with the COT. It was all recorded in excel sheets and I need to figure out where those sheets are. Last time I tried it to send to Larry Williams in zip format, whose book I purchased about COT.

I also did some mean-reversion analysis, where I would look at extreme conditions showing in COT and where...
Thank you for the explanation.
Regarding the COT, you cant run a good model on Excel you need to input your excel fill to SAS software then run your model there. COT index worth nothing if you dont look at the net positioning and the PA in that week.
I did the same thing on COT index and net positioning, overall following the net positioning is profitable but it's not the case for COT index. That's when technical analysis comes handy, combine COT index extreme with RSI extreme/div then you will get better results. You need a Multiple Linear Regression Model , with a continuous variable as your dependent variable (pips change per week), a continuous variable (net positioning change) and two categorical variable (Index and one technical indi) as your independent variables.
  • #3,692
  • Jun 16, 2010 7:02pm Jun 16, 2010 7:02pm
AUG Crude Oil Future
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  • #3,693
  • Jun 16, 2010 7:03pm Jun 16, 2010 7:03pm
Quoting jackm1
Entered long Euro, 4h chart @ 12:50 pm PST

1.2305


SL=20
TP=20

Reason: Reverse bull-diverg

Closing this trade @ TP = -4 @ 5:02pm PST,
Reason: 4H MACD turning south
  • #3,694
  • Edited 7:45pm Jun 16, 2010 7:32pm | Edited 7:45pm
Man this trade is turning out beautiful. I hope we hit
the 8580 target

Sl moved down to 8625
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #3,695
  • Jun 16, 2010 7:59pm Jun 16, 2010 7:59pm
Enter Short NZ/U

0.6965 on 4H chart @ 7:57 pm CST

SL 30
TP 30

Reason

CCI Divergence on 4H
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  • #3,696
  • Jun 16, 2010 9:52pm Jun 16, 2010 9:52pm
G/U
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  • #3,697
  • Jun 17, 2010 6:18am Jun 17, 2010 6:18am
SSI: USDCHF Positioning Points to Further Losses as the Pair Breaks Below the 50 Day SMA
Thursday, 17 Jun 2010 10:43 GMT
Written by Michael Wright

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Intraday Highlight:

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.40 as nearly 71% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.31 as 57% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 25.5% higher than yesterday and 44.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 31.6% lower than yesterday and 23.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.8% stronger than yesterday and 140.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.58 as nearly 61% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.40 as 58% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 7.6% lower than yesterday and 10.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.0% higher than yesterday and 23.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.8% weaker than yesterday and 112.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.26 as nearly 56% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.13 as 53% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 9.3% lower than yesterday and 6.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.3% higher than yesterday and 26.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.7% weaker than yesterday and 96.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.08 as nearly 52% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.14 as 53% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.7% lower than yesterday and 11.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.6% higher than yesterday and 5.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.2% weaker than yesterday and 116.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.01 as nearly 50% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.07 as 52% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 4.9% higher than yesterday and 2.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.6% lower than yesterday and 0.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.0% stronger than yesterday and 130.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.62 as nearly 72% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.69 as 73% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.2% lower than yesterday and 6.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.8% lower than yesterday and 5.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.5% weaker than yesterday and 121.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.62 as nearly 62% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.49 as 60% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 3.4% lower than yesterday and 7.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.7% higher than yesterday and 0.8% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.5% stronger than yesterday and 129.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -2.18 as nearly 69% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.79 as 64% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 10.9% lower than yesterday and 2.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 8.8% higher than yesterday and 37.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.7% stronger than yesterday and 124.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

USDX 4 Hour

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx-4hour-17jun.jpg Size: 176 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Market_Strategy_Daily_17_June_2010.pdf   113 KB | 312 downloads
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,698
  • Jun 17, 2010 6:25am Jun 17, 2010 6:25am
Quoting Patience
SSI: USDCHF Positioning Points to Further Losses as the Pair Breaks Below the 50 Day SMA
Thursday, 17 Jun 2010 10:43 GMT
Written by Michael Wright

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

Attachment
Attachment

Intraday Highlight:

USDCHF[font=Arial] - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.40 as nearly 71% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was...
Hi Patience,
How has trading treated you this week?
Thanks for the post, it seems those guys are fighting the uptrend. I'm sure lots of experience traders are doing the same thing. Unfortunately I stopped out on my G/U long trade due to a tight SL.
  • #3,699
  • Edited 6:50am Jun 17, 2010 6:39am | Edited 6:50am
SHAHAB, Thanks again for your insight on au earlier, I got stopped out with profit so I am happy made about 40 pips last night. Well I am yet short again on au here at resistance that has failed to be broken quite a few times

Short @ 8662
sl @ 8685
TP @ 8585

Please correct me if I am wrong regarding the aud globex COT daily. Looking at the chart AUD buyers are pretty much turning into shorts. Open contracts are less than 5K right now and the large traders oscillator is heading to 0.

There is a ton of red flag usd news so i am looking for this to be pushed down by good news on the USD



Insight on my analasys of the COT would be greatly appreciated.

My purpose is for a position trade, I would like to take this trade and hopefully continue it downward, so far I have been stuck trading the range, I am hoping it soon dies off.

Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #3,700
  • Jun 17, 2010 6:56am Jun 17, 2010 6:56am
Quoting goods
SHAHAB,...
Regarding COT, it seems the long term uptrend is reversing into a downtrend, if we see Net turning negative finally, COT is 0 means we should see Upward move which has been happening since last week.
Be careful shorting now,always have your SL in place.
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