Some feedback sought on my trend lines... good setup? | Forex Factory

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Some feedback sought on my trend lines... good setup?

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Jun 20, 2010 7:04am Jun 15, 2010 8:36am | Edited Jun 20, 2010 7:04am
Wondering I could get some opinions on how I have set up these trend lines (on EU) and whether this would be a good set up to work off for short on pin bar etc, long on clear break?

Still very much learning...

Thanks
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  • #2
  • Jun 15, 2010 5:22pm Jun 15, 2010 5:22pm
Trading break outs from trend lines is a personal thing. Everybody does it differently so I couldn't say you were wrong. Try searching "How to draw trend lines" to get the basics and then back test your strategy from there.

Trading break outs is a skill in itself and so a search and practise of this subject wouldn't do any harm either. In fact I think I'll do some more myself while the markets are jinking me.
Gone to a better place
  • #3
  • Edited 4:53pm Jun 16, 2010 1:14pm | Edited 4:53pm
Your TL's drew channels, to me.
Hope you don't mind, I very slightly moved left-side lower TL and removed right side's 2nd from top TL. The former matched the bars' patterns better, and the latter, I didn't immediately see making a channel or otherwise contributing. Also, removed grid and fib retrace; of course horizontal lines would be useful, I just wanted to show how your TL's implied channels. (Note the colored boxes, which highlight channel alignings and turns.)
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I'm not sure how to trade them; they seem more a spectacle, practice. The far right shows the price-time line hitting a median line with some kind of pattern, which is the area I guess you were referring to when noting a specific kind of bar.
  • #4
  • Jun 20, 2010 6:31am Jun 20, 2010 6:31am
Quoting smikester
Trading break outs from trend lines is a personal thing. Everybody does it differently so I couldn't say you were wrong. Try searching "How to draw trend lines" to get the basics and then back test your strategy from there.

Trading break outs is a skill in itself and so a search and practise of this subject wouldn't do any harm either. In fact I think I'll do some more myself while the markets are jinking me.
I still don't feel I am actually looking at what makes the most sense; particularly with when a trend changes or has a correction. Spent some time looking through your old posts and there are some that I feel I relate to (such as still doing better in my demo trading than live; I think for me I make decisions quicker in the demo and don't second guess; while live, I wait too late so there is greater risk required in placing stop losses).

Thank you very much
  • #5
  • Edited 7:51am Jun 20, 2010 6:54am | Edited 7:51am
Quoting ha-pattern
Your TL's drew channels, to me.
Hope you don't mind, I very slightly moved left-side lower TL and removed right side's 2nd from top TL. The former matched the bars' patterns better, and the latter, I didn't immediately see making a channel or otherwise contributing. Also, removed grid and fib retrace; of course horizontal lines would be useful, I just wanted to show how your TL's implied channels. (Note the colored boxes, which highlight channel alignings and turns.)
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I'm not sure how to trade...

I can see how what you've done works really well, but I just can't make out how you visualise/form/identify the channels from a blank chart (if that makes sense). I can't effectively really use fib lines, except more of looking back and noticing what could essentially be coincidental patterns. I still don't know what I'm really looking for half the time, but it really amazes me when a good portion appear to follow what I draw to some respect.


Speaking of coincidental patterns, that second from the top on the right line I drew played quite a bit of the bounces on the 15min chart on friday!

AUD/USD chart that just seems to line up.... (also see a line from the highest point on the left to the last hump before the latest drop..) I can't decide if this is just lucky chance or actually somewhere in my head is onto something... Feels way too cluttered though.. really like the simpler, clearer way you draw; Time to practice!

Could you explain (or point me in the direction to understand) your highlighted zones that you have there, particularly the ellipse in the second image?
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  • #6
  • Jun 20, 2010 7:28am Jun 20, 2010 7:28am
EU Daily | Trendline + Channel setup
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  • #7
  • Edited 7:59am Jun 20, 2010 7:55am | Edited 7:59am
Quoting Jhig
EU Daily | Trendline + Channel setup
When May came would you have lowered your line to where it is? How do you react to such a movement? is it because it is with the trend it's not that significant?


Cheers

Additionally, is there anything useful to the perpendicular-ness of the the latest move to the trend line?
  • #8
  • Jun 20, 2010 9:31am Jun 20, 2010 9:31am
Quoting elio
When May came would you have lowered your line to where it is?
Month of May showed lower lows and in effect broke past the already established trendline (channel) at the bottom. When the established trendline was broken in May, I would have seen that trendline as void. Trendline is broker so there is no need to keep watch on it. When newer lower lows presented themselves, I redraw my trendline reflecting the change (lower low change). Never be afraid to "re-adjust" you trendlines. In fact if you need to re-adjust your trendlines everyday (delete them and re-apply them) to keep current with new market movement, then do so. Nothing is ever "set in stone" with the market. Always be ready to re-adjust when the market adjust itself. If you draw a trendline, also always look to draw a channel. Usually, if you're able to draw a trendline from A to B, more than likely you can also draw a channel line from C to D.

Quoting elio
How do you react to such a movement? is it because it is with the trend it's not that significant?
If the trend is down and price action broker past the trendline on the lower end, shows the downwards trend is in fact very significant.

Quoting elio
Additionally, is there anything useful to the perpendicular-ness of the the latest move to the trend line?
Yes, overall trend is down ... trendline channel shows that. Currently, there is an upwards move which indicates to me, not a trend change but a retrace. Traders are raving over this upwards move and using this to predict the dollar's demise but I see it as an insignificant upwards move. Just a retracement. So, if price continues to play inside the channel, I'm expecting more lows. Based on the channel, price could go up and reach 1.26. Then expect the drop to continue.
  • #9
  • Edited 5:47pm Jun 21, 2010 6:23am | Edited 5:47pm
Quoting Jhig
When newer lower lows presented themselves, I redraw my trendline reflecting the change (lower low change). Never be afraid to "re-adjust" you trendlines. In fact if you need to re-adjust your trendlines everyday (delete them and re-apply them) to keep current with new market movement, then do so. Nothing is ever "set in stone" with the market. Always be ready to re-adjust when the market adjust itself. If you draw a trendline, also always look to draw a channel. Usually, if you're able to draw a trendline from A to B, more than likely you can...
Say the drop becomes more exponential, ie steeper and steeper (or what I've seen more often in rising hyped stocks) would that create a wider channel or a series of channels at increasing angles? Would either of these be useful tools in trading such a drop/rise?


Thanks




Addition: Drawing the channel, price has moved to pretty much to the middle of it; and looking back, it has either gapped heavily through or spiked briefly... Very interesting
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  • #10
  • Edited 5:16am Jun 23, 2010 5:03am | Edited 5:16am
Some more practice....



Keep feeling like it's cluttering the charts!
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  • #11
  • Jun 29, 2010 9:23pm Jun 29, 2010 9:23pm
Posible retracing back up to top of channel?
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  • #12
  • Last Post: Jul 2, 2010 7:42am Jul 2, 2010 7:42am
Well that kept going...


not that I'm complaining lol
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