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Nanningbob 4H trading system

  • #1,841
  • Jun 14, 2010 5:34pm Jun 14, 2010 5:34pm
NB:

Are you in the EURAUD now, or are you still waiting, or re-entering again at each new signal? I'm not sure if the signals vary depending on the broker feeds or not. On my platform the EA has already shown 3 buy lines, but they did not look like good enters to me. It's down around 100 pips since the first signal line. The NB meter does not show all green bars right now for the first two signal lines either. I'm not sure if they were green at one time and then they were repainted or not.

At some point it might be good to buy it, but with the monthly trend down, I hesitate to place any buy orders, and would only place sell orders.

Do you discuss any trades you place when you place then or prior to placing them?

I'd like to see you post some screen shots of the trades that went bad. I sometimes learn more from the mistakes than from the good trades.
  • #1,842
  • Edited 6:53pm Jun 14, 2010 6:26pm | Edited 6:53pm
Lots of trade possibles today, pick and choose. So many trades I just bailed on the cad/chf to clean it out.
RESULTS
cad/chf -11
eur/cad PR +24
gbp/chf +10
Sells
aud/cad
eur/jpy
eur/usd
gbp/jpy
gbp/usd

Buys
usd/cad
usd/chf
( I list the two USD trades but I wont be taking either one. Too many trades going now. I dont want to overextend myself)

STILL IN
aud/chf -24
aud/jpy+26
aud/usd +12
nzd/jpy +13
nzd/chf -25
nzd/usd -134 2ndL +5

TOTALS
total for day +23
for the week +23
for the month +668
Carry over -127

PR=primary, 2nd=secondary
  • #1,843
  • Jun 14, 2010 6:49pm Jun 14, 2010 6:49pm
Dont remember how I got the first level but here is the NZD/USD 2nd level I have taken. As soon as prices moves enough to even out the trade I will close and take my 0 loss. I will try to make profit on other trades.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzd usd 2ndl.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #1,844
  • Jun 14, 2010 6:56pm Jun 14, 2010 6:56pm
Quoting BlackStack
NB:

Are you in the EURAUD now, or are you still waiting, or re-entering again at each new signal?...
I am not in the Eur/Aud. I just dont think it is a good time to take buys on the Euro except in the case of the EUR/GBP when it qualifies. Both of them are very weak right now so they could make good buy trades. I am selling eur/jpy and eur/usd. Doing sells on any Euro currency after any solid retracement makes good sense even though they may not fully quallify as primary or 2nd trades. The news out of Europe is so bad right now going long on any European currency is just risky. Look for shorts on gbp and euro currencies even though they may not fully qualify. I would take out that eur/aud buy or bring your SL tight. Even though it qualifies as a primary trade I dont trust the Euro to go up any time soon.
  • #1,845
  • Jun 14, 2010 7:01pm Jun 14, 2010 7:01pm
Here is the Eur/aud. It qualifies but the retracements are sickly and weak. I just dont think it is a good trade right now. The Fundamentals are way too strong against the Euro right now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur aud.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #1,846
  • Jun 14, 2010 7:04pm Jun 14, 2010 7:04pm
I am taking the Eur/USD even though it does not qualify as a Primary Sell. When fundamentals are very strong I will take a trade in the middle of the chart. The Fundamentals are very strong against the Euro so I am taking these trades even thought they dont officially qualify.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #1,847
  • Jun 14, 2010 8:27pm Jun 14, 2010 8:27pm
Quoting nanningbob
Just to add my voice to the MTPM. I like it because it does stop a lot of DD but It also losses a lot of pip profit. With IBFX I was hitting about 60% but with FXSol over 90%. (I used to trade with them 3 years ago but quit because they were a bunch of SL hunters. Still are I guess. Havent traded with them long enough this time to draw that conclusion but I am getting there.) Either way all those +10 will add up as long as you dont get into deep DD. So not sure what I will do with them yet.

I am starting to get a lot trade context is busy with...
Bob,

Can you share your set file w/ MPTM? Or your settings?

I set mine up for trailing stop w/ jumping stop and when it jumped the first time, it would close.... So, I disabled trailing stop and now it jumps again.. Strange.

BTW, I am doing very well the last few days on the EA since I got the bugs worked out with magic numbers etc.. My manual account is almost dormant and still coming back from the big May drawdown.
We are our own best indicator.
  • #1,848
  • Jun 14, 2010 8:27pm Jun 14, 2010 8:27pm
Quoting nanningbob
Dont remember how I got the first level but here is the NZD/USD 2nd level I have taken. As soon as prices moves enough to even out the trade I will close and take my 0 loss. I will try to make profit on other trades.
That chart looks like a transition from a downtrend to an uptrend. If you add some moving averages you can see some crossovers to an uptrend.

I don't see the vertical signal line indicating that a sell trade should be placed, nor red bars in the NB Meter at your first entry. There is a vertical line at the second entry and red bars on the NB Meter, but I'd be weary of the uptrend.

I guess your system mainly consists of taking the counter-trend trades. You seem to be doing well with it. Seems more scary to me than taking the trades with the trend. I'll need to demo it more before taking any live trades.

If you draw the fibs on the up move you can see that with a 50% retracement you can get your first loss back. I'm not sure if there will be a 50% retracement though.

I didn't take a live EURAUD trade, I was just looking at how your system was indicating a trade. Thanks.
  • #1,849
  • Edited 9:14pm Jun 14, 2010 8:35pm | Edited 9:14pm
Quoting BlackStack
That chart looks like a transition from a downtrend to an uptrend....
This is a countertrend system not a trend system. I explain this in my book. The difference between a countertrend system and a trend system is: a countertrend system you are 100% guaranteed a retracement will happen. In a trend system you do not know when a trend starts, when it ends, and how long it will last. If I take a MA cross against the trend on a 4H chart I am 75-85% sure I will get 20+ pips on the move. The ones that dont I can counter trade again and take a minimum or 0 loss on the trade. The only thing I have to worry about is the super news story (NFP is not a super news story). Greece maybe going bankrupt, France threatening to pull out of the Euro are (see 1st week or May), along with interest rate changes are. So I take the trade. NZD/USD mystifies me as to why I got that first level. Must have been drinking too much green tea.
  • #1,850
  • Jun 14, 2010 9:21pm Jun 14, 2010 9:21pm
Quoting BlackStack
That chart looks like a transition from a downtrend to an uptrend....
I am not a Fib guy, I think that is a worthless indicator. If you put it on the chart less than 10% of the time price will bounce or hit a Fib line. In truth almost all Fib lines are only hit when the also correspond with a S/R line. So in my opinion S/R lines are far superior over Fib lines. I once changed the math on the Fib lines and found out that no matter what math I used for the 4 lines between the top and bottom (0-100), price would hit a line about 10% of the time. So I threw that indicator into the trash.
  • #1,851
  • Jun 14, 2010 9:27pm Jun 14, 2010 9:27pm
Quoting bluemele
Bob,

Can you share your set file w/ MPTM? Or your settings?

I set mine up for trailing stop w/ jumping stop and when it jumped the first time, it would close.... So, I disabled trailing stop and now it jumps again.. Strange.

BTW, I am doing very well the last few days on the EA since I got the bugs worked out with magic numbers etc.. My manual account is almost dormant and still coming back from the big May drawdown.
I only use the BE. With the jump start and BE functions and EA entrances I thought it was causing too much traffic and was getting the trade context is busy too much. Too many signals being sent to the broker. I have been using @ 20 BE +10 but I am going to test @40 +25. And see if I get better results. I like the idea of limiting my DD but I losing too many pips on the +10 BE. I also am testing a 200 TP instead of +50. I hope these changes will give me more take home pips without affecting the number of trades that go into DD.
  • #1,852
  • Jun 14, 2010 11:19pm Jun 14, 2010 11:19pm
For manual entry should I switch to 15m chart or any smaller tf than 4hr?
  • #1,853
  • Jun 14, 2010 11:36pm Jun 14, 2010 11:36pm
Quoting iCarumba
For manual entry should I switch to 15m chart or any smaller tf than 4hr?
I dont manual trade but that is usually how it is done. Get a signal from a high end chart and then go to a lower time frame to find your best entrance. I use EAs to do all my entrances.
  • #1,854
  • Jun 15, 2010 12:20am Jun 15, 2010 12:20am
Quoting nanningbob
I am not a Fib guy, I think that is a worthless indicator. If you put it on the chart less than 10% of the time price will bounce or hit a Fib line. In truth almost all Fib lines are only hit when the also correspond with a S/R line. So in my opinion S/R lines are far superior over Fib lines. I once changed the math on the Fib lines and found out that no matter what math I used for the 4 lines between the top and bottom (0-100), price would hit a line about 10% of the time. So I threw that indicator into the trash.
I've had much better success rate with fibs myself. My mentor is astonishing with them, often with projections and retracements to the pip, and over 80%, maybe over 90%, close to the levels. He took a training course under DiNapoli himself. But you don't need to hit to the pip exactly, close is good enough to know where to be looking to close half or all the position.

You're right about not knowing where trends start. Once the retracement happens though you know where the trend started, where the retracement is, and then you can get into the trend after the retracement ends. Easy to draw the fibs with these points known and you get the profit target. This method is often used by my mentor, but I haven't gotten the hang of it during live trading. I still try to get into the trend where it starts, hard to do. Maybe his method is the corollary of your method.

You say that you don't know where the trend will end. Do you know where the retracement will end? How do you set the profit targets?
  • #1,855
  • Jun 15, 2010 4:13am Jun 15, 2010 4:13am
Quoting nanningbob
I only use the BE. With the jump start and BE functions and EA entrances I thought it was causing too much traffic and was getting the trade context is busy too much. Too many signals being sent to the broker. I have been using @ 20 BE +10 but I am going to test @40 +25. And see if I get better results. I like the idea of limiting my DD but I losing too many pips on the +10 BE. I also am testing a 200 TP instead of +50. I hope these changes will give me more take home pips without affecting the number of trades that go into DD.
Hi Bob

I was getting good few pips with mptm BE, but the problem came when started having Level 2 trades, then as soon as BE+10 was hit and trade closed then the Level 1 trade was closed as well. Therefore, I had to switch it off until such time that there are no Level 2 trades.

Some observations regarding indicators:
The S / R Indicator is based on Fractals found in mt4 and other places.
The Sixth indicator is almost (maybe 10% difference) the same as Murrey Math Lines.

I agree with Bob regarding Fibonacci, however, a lot of respected experienced traders live by it and works for them. By the way found a nice little site with good number of mt4 indicators (with instructions) which may be worth a visit. http://forex-indicators.net/

Kind regards
  • #1,856
  • Jun 15, 2010 4:42am Jun 15, 2010 4:42am
Quoting BlackStack
I've had much better success rate with fibs myself. My mentor is astonishing with them, often with projections and retracements to the pip, and over 80%, maybe over 90%, close to the levels. He took a training course under DiNapoli himself. But you don't need to hit to the pip exactly, close is good enough to know where to be looking to close half or all the position.

You're right about not knowing where trends start. Once the retracement happens though you know where the trend started, where the retracement is, and then you can get into...
I will answer those questions in my new thread. To me the question became defining the trend. I defined what a trend is, then I trade it. Testing my theories now. Once I defined what a trend was I knew where to enter and I knew where to exit. I felt that was the fault of trend traders, they didnt define what it was so it became a hit and miss system. So if a trend lasts 50 pips or 1500 pips you should be able to follow it all the way through or pick up most of it. I can also alter it to work on any TF. So depending on what kind of trader you are it should fit.

I have no doubt that people who trade FIBS have some success. The problem I have with teacher/traders is they always show you after the fact and they never show their failures. My trades are posted before the event and you see my failures. I dont hide, good or bad, most traders can relate to that. Guys have seen how I handle 2-3000 pip DD on a day by day basis so now trading becomes meaningful to them. Again with FIBS if they correspond with an existing S/R area they work.
  • #1,857
  • Jun 15, 2010 6:30am Jun 15, 2010 6:30am
Quoting nanningbob
I will answer those questions in my new thread. To me the question became defining the trend...Guys have seen how I handle 2-3000 pip DD on a day by day basis so now trading becomes meaningful to them. Again with FIBS if they correspond with an existing S/R area they work.
The penultimate sentence in your post is the most important aspect of your system distinguishing it from any other I have seen. I have not come across any other system where a plan is in place to deal with losing trades. Normally in any system losing trades are accepted as part of trading but here there is a specific and detailed course of action to deal with it. As long as the trader has good money management discipline (i.e. stick to lots of 1/200,000 or 1/500,000 x account balance for example if your account balance is $5,000 divide by 200,000 = 0.02 lots) and LIMIT number of trades, everything will go smoothly.

Bob being an expert can handle a large number of trades being open at the same time, however, what I have found is that if I have more than 8 or 10 trades open at one time and they go in DD then keeping up with level 2 and 3 trades for recovery can become a bit of a hand full. I will keep only 8 to 10 trades open at one time till such time I am more confident. Finally, I am still not 100% used to the mentality of H4 trading. It takes a bit of time to get used to having some trades open for couple of weeks and -ve trades of few hundred pips!

Kind Regards
  • #1,858
  • Jun 15, 2010 11:01am Jun 15, 2010 11:01am
Quoting nanningbob

I have no doubt that people who trade FIBS have some success. The problem I have with teacher/traders is they always show you after the fact and they never show their failures. My trades are posted before the event and you see my failures. I dont hide, good or bad, most traders can relate to that. Guys have seen how I handle 2-3000 pip DD on a day by day basis so now trading becomes meaningful to them. Again with FIBS if they correspond with an existing S/R area they work.

Looking forward to your answers.

Funny thing about those S/R though is that they are where there are fib clusters. Has to be reason why those S/R are at those points. The biggest traders in the world use fibs, and since they control the market that is why fibs work.
  • #1,859
  • Jun 15, 2010 6:04pm Jun 15, 2010 6:04pm
I changed my MPTM to 40+25 and got a lot of them so had a very good day. Almost every currency is tradeable so set up the ones you like best and go. Me, I will take almost all except the usd/cad. You all know how much I love that one. Have a good day trading, looks like a monster day today or tomorrow on these reversals.
RESULTS
aud/cad +43
aud/chf +23 +25
aud/jpy+25
aud/usd +42
eur/jpy+25 +25
eur/usd +25
gbp/jpy +25
gbp/usd +25 +25nzd/jpy +25
nzd/chf +58
nzd/usd 2ndL +25
Sells
All aud as primary or secondary trades
All Eur as primary or secondary trades
All NZD as primary or secondary trades
cad/jpy 2nd
chf/jpy 2nd
gbp/jpy 2nd
gbp/usd PR

Buys
usd/cad PR
usd/chf PR

STILL IN
eur/jpy -185
nzd/usd -210 Have EA set to reenter at the cross.

TOTALS
total for day +416
for the week +439
for the month +1084
Carry over -395

PR=primary, 2nd=secondary[/quote]
  • #1,860
  • Jun 15, 2010 6:16pm Jun 15, 2010 6:16pm
Quoting BlackStack
Looking forward to your answers.

Funny thing about those S/R though is that they are where there are fib clusters. Has to be reason why those S/R are at those points. The biggest traders in the world use fibs, and since they control the market that is why fibs work.
Sorry to disappoint you guy but the big traders use S/R lines, that is why every broker lists S/R lines every day not Fib lines. Fibonacci was an Italian mathematician who designed a math formula. The math formula has nothing to do with trading, stocks, Forex or anything else, it is a math formula. If you draw any 4 random lines on the screen an x amount of the lines are going to lines up with an x amount of candles. It is just the odds of it happening. It is not S/R lines line up with Fib lines it is the other way around. S/R lines have existed as long as trading has existed. Fibs are just a fad right now. The bottom line is Fibs only work when they line up with S/R lines and that is a happen stance. Again Fib traders dont show when it doesnt work which is very very often. I studied Fib lines and it has an accuracy rate of about 10%, I am not going to bother with them because they are a worthless trading tool. When you look at using something you look at it from all the time not at only when it works and Fibs will fail you the vast majority of the time.
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