Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

What do you think for the AUDUSD here then?
The COT index shows a 0 value so is oversold, we have had a bounce from the bottom. But your other chart shows traders now almost net 0 so neither long or short but decreasing from the +80,000 net long value...

I am new at this COT stuff but here's what i think,

Price has stopped it's down trend since 21 MAY and started this retrace back to 50% (8714) from 8th June.

But as shown on Shahab's COT chart, Net positions are going downward ever since the trend started ( even before the big fall.)

So it would be very interesting to see what comes out in the COT report today i would like to see net positions below 0.

In this scenario i will seek setups for shorts near 8714ish.

Just My Opinion.
.

[quote=jackm1;3801511]Short entered G/U 1.4751
SL = 30
TP = 30
Daily Chart

Closed TP +30

[quote=jackm1;3801533]Short entered A/U 0.8565
SL = 30
TP = 30
Daily Chart


Closed TP +30

AU: nets decreased a little bit futher towards 0 again.
Any thoughts?
Still no decisive fugures really...

Reporting ends on a Tuesday. Results come out on a Friday. You are still looking at last Friday's data.

I haven't seen the movie Hero but sounds like I should add it to my list of things to do. I like your approach - shooting a lot of arrows - but all that EA stuff goes way over my head.

SSI: Retail USDCHF Longs Surge 31% as Pair Tests 1.13, Extends its Reversal
Tuesday, 15 Jun 2010 19:37 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:



Intraday Highlight:

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 1.47 as nearly 60% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.01 as 50% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 30.8% higher than yesterday and 33.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 10.6% lower than yesterday and 2.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 10.1% stronger than yesterday and 14.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.58 as nearly 61% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.27 as 56% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 9.8% lower than yesterday and 25.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 12.2% higher than yesterday and 46.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.5% stronger than yesterday and 9.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.59 as nearly 61% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.31 as 57% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 7.7% lower than yesterday and 13.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 12.4% higher than yesterday and 53.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.7% stronger than yesterday and 16.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.08 as nearly 52% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.04 as 51% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.5% lower than yesterday and 10.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.3% higher than yesterday and 28.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.5% weaker than yesterday and 7.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at -1.01 as nearly 50% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.03 as 51% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 1.0% lower than yesterday and 6.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.6% lower than yesterday and 83.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.8% weaker than yesterday and 28.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY gains.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.25 as nearly 69% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.93 as 66% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 13.3% higher than yesterday and 29.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.8% lower than yesterday and 3.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 7.8% stronger than yesterday and 18.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.41 as nearly 59% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.70 as 63% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 12.0% higher than yesterday and 4.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.2% lower than yesterday and 33.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.1% weaker than yesterday and 20.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.56 as nearly 61% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.83 as 65% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 14.7% higher than yesterday and 37.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.2% lower than yesterday and 133.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.8% stronger than yesterday and 13.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

Entered Short A/U = .8655 @ 4:20 pm CST

SL=30
TP=30

Reasons:
4H stochs overbought
CCI overbought

Short GBP/CHF @ 1.6778 4:30 pm CST
Daily chart

SL=30
TP=30

Reasons:

Daily Overbought Stochs
Daily MACD downtrend

So,the Friday data shows a summary of the data as at Tuesday each week?
Why don;t they just publish the entire week's data?

Interestingly enough, surely we have the technology to release this information by the tick now don't we?

...and lastly, is that FXCM data on their website?

I have no idea why the data is so delayed. Given this day and age of technology it does seem a tad prehistoric.

The sentiment index I post is only available through the platform. FXCM do post a weekly (I think it's weekly) sentiment article on their website. The one I post is usually updated twice a day - mid morning and in the evening.

Most likely it is delayed because the large trading houses want to keep their edge to themselves for a few days extra.

Is the SSI data from FXCM's client only or the full lot?
From what Iread it is only listing the small/retail trader hence why it is a contrarian indicator as the large traders look to exploit the small traders?

It's FXCM's clients. Don't confuse FXCM's Sentiment Index with COT. It's totally different.

Kind if a strange indicator to publish though don;t you think...as in it's counterintuitive. If all FXCM's clients (the small traders) all start to follow the SSI then it will start giving contrarian signals to the signals it's currently giving.

Here's what FXCM say about their SSI.

How to Interpret the SSI? The FXCM SSI is based on proprietary customer flow information and is designed to realize price trend breaks and reversals in the four most popularly traded currency pairs. The absolute number of the ratio itself represents the amount by which longs exceed shorts or vice versa. For example if the EURUSD ratio is 2.55, long customer orders exceed short orders by a ratio of 2.55 to 1. Conceptually similar to contrarian analyses using the CFTC IMM open position data or COT Report, the SSI provides an alternative approach that is both more timely and accurate in forecasting currency price movement. The SSI is a contrarian indicator that tells you how the market is weighted and where the trend may head. More long positions don't necessary suggest more confidence in the direction of the current trend. In general, when traders start having adverse movements against their position, many tend to increase the size of their position with the purpose to average down their entry price in one last attempt to recover from previous losses. However, the higher the number of short orders in a bull market the more dangerous is to take additional shorts because many of those traders who just entered the markets are also leaving their protective stop losses just above the current price action.

USDX Daily

I was just about to post this chart saying we usually bounce around now but I see the beginnings of a downmove already. Of course, sentiment says the opposite but we retail traders can be right once in a while

HI SHahab,
I reached my target in AU short and closed. Will re enter if it crosses .8565. Got 55 pips there.
Still short on EU. Interestingly the drop happened in Saturn hour which kicked in from 21:35 Sydney time through to 21:45. We stilll have amother 5 min to go. Next one is at 5:48 am. Closing my short on DOW till then as well with 35 pips only. Will wait and see If I can re-enter towards session end, Astrological hours point to a drop in the afternoon hope they are right.

Good luck and safe trading....

Entered Short A/U = .8655 @ 4:20 pm CST
SL=30
TP=30

Short GBP/CHF @ 1.6778 4:30 pm CST
Daily chart
SL=30
TP=30

Both trades closed at TP 30 pips

Entered long Euro, 4h chart @ 12:50 pm PST

1.2305


SL=20
TP=20

Reason: Reverse bull-diverg

Entered Short G/U @ 2:22 pm PST, daily chart

1.4720

SP = 40
TP = 50

Reason: CCI Diverg on daily chart