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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #22,981
  • Jun 9, 2010 9:01pm Jun 9, 2010 9:01pm
Quoting wuming79
Hi,

Can we put SL above 21ma instead of the swing high? I remembered reading one of the articles, Phil sometimes put SL around moving averages when the swing points are far. But I'm not sure if this swing point is consider far enough.
Yes, you can.
  • #22,982
  • Jun 9, 2010 9:03pm Jun 9, 2010 9:03pm
Should we be waiting for the 1hr uptrend line support to break first before we short EURUSD? This uptrend line looks very strong. Even now if is showing bullish harami...

http://img811.imageshack.us/img811/9351/eurusd2.gif

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  • #22,983
  • Jun 9, 2010 9:05pm Jun 9, 2010 9:05pm
Quoting silverfox88
Still too early to say until I close the position
The latest upmove is due to the good employment news release in Australia. It moves the whole market during the Asian session but I hope that it settles soon and it goes back to the way it was.
  • #22,984
  • Jun 9, 2010 9:29pm Jun 9, 2010 9:29pm
Quoting xeneric
The latest upmove is due to the good employment news release in Australia. It moves the whole market during the Asian session but I hope that it settles soon and it goes back to the way it was.
It seems you are also in the short position and that is my hope too
  • #22,985
  • Edited Jun 10, 2010 12:04am Jun 9, 2010 10:56pm | Edited Jun 10, 2010 12:04am
Quoting silverfox88
Shorted EURUSD at 11984 with sl 70 pips and tp at 11892. Let see how to develop from here.
Shifted my sl to 50 pips when the price went down by about 20 pips. Market turn around and sl got triggered...
  • #22,986
  • Jun 10, 2010 2:02am Jun 10, 2010 2:02am
Today we also have ECB and BOE rate decisions. It is unlikely that the rates will change but the market will be waiting for the decision.
  • #22,987
  • Jun 10, 2010 5:12am Jun 10, 2010 5:12am
Possible bounce off trendline for EU.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu4hr.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #22,988
  • Jun 10, 2010 7:00am Jun 10, 2010 7:00am
Possible short off trendline for GU
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu4hr.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #22,989
  • Jun 10, 2010 7:31am Jun 10, 2010 7:31am
Quoting silverfox88
Shifted my sl to 50 pips when the price went down by about 20 pips. Market turn around and sl got triggered...
Just a suggestion - you could have taken 20 pips on 1/2 lot and set sl to break even on 2nd lot. I know that it is very volatile right now and you will probably be stopped out on 2nd lot but at least you won't lose any money.
  • #22,990
  • Jun 10, 2010 9:47am Jun 10, 2010 9:47am
Quoting xeneric
Just a suggestion - you could have taken 20 pips on 1/2 lot and set sl to break even on 2nd lot. I know that it is very volatile right now and you will probably be stopped out on 2nd lot but at least you won't lose any money.
Thanks for your suggestion. I was expecting a TC from H4 and intended to ride the trend. However, I was wrong about the TC. If this is not a TC, I will consider taking 20 pips profit on 1/2 lot and move the rest to break even.
  • #22,991
  • Edited 10:09am Jun 10, 2010 9:53am | Edited 10:09am
@Xeneric, I see the tl bounce possibilities, too. are you going to take the trades? audusd fits into a simmilar pattern.
right timing is important with these countertrend trades
I'd suggest using rsi8 and drawing a lower trendline. if that trendline gets crossed at candle close then enter. a macd confirmation would be a good thing, too.
aud example attatched
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud 4h 10.6.10.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #22,992
  • Jun 10, 2010 10:31am Jun 10, 2010 10:31am
Dollar index reaching a support level. Might bounce?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx100610.jpg Size: 86 KB
Gone to a better place
  • #22,993
  • Jun 10, 2010 10:47am Jun 10, 2010 10:47am
@Smikester, it looks like possible ct on all of my traded pairs, except uj. the art should be to pick the most likely pairs to profit from
  • #22,994
  • Edited 10:19am Jun 11, 2010 8:10am | Edited 10:19am
shorting

eurusd @1,2084, r=80
audusd @0,8437 r=75

both countertrend trades(according to macd), both half risk, speculating on a tl bounce.
I missed gu short 4h ago

edit:
eu has reached 0,5r, sl set to be
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 4h 11.6.10.gif Size: 13 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud 4h 11.6.10.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #22,995
  • Jun 12, 2010 4:45pm Jun 12, 2010 4:45pm
Quoting ashes
shorting

eurusd @1,2084, r=80
audusd @0,8437 r=75

both countertrend trades(according to macd), both half risk, speculating on a tl bounce.
I missed gu short 4h ago

edit:
eu has reached 0,5r, sl set to be
I took the same trade on Fri and closed it around 17:00 GMT for 13 pips. I believe I understand your statement of CT trade on the 4 hr b/c of the MACD, but it really is a TC based on the overall trend and daily. I'm going to take a close look at reentering when the market opens b/c on the one hour we have made a lower low. If a candle pattern shows up on the 1 or 4 hr chart indicating a loss of momentum and a lower high, I think we will see lower prices. I'll posts the charts on my next post
  • #22,996
  • Jun 12, 2010 4:52pm Jun 12, 2010 4:52pm
Here is the Daily and the 1 hr chart. The daily shows the strong support which is now acting as resistance. The hourly show the lower low and the possible lower high
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 061110-nt1.gif Size: 55 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 061110-nt2.gif Size: 59 KB
  • #22,997
  • Jun 12, 2010 5:31pm Jun 12, 2010 5:31pm
Quoting Morelands
I took the same trade on Fri and closed it around 17:00 GMT for 13 pips. I believe I understand your statement of CT trade on the 4 hr b/c of the MACD, but it really is a TC based on the overall trend and daily. I'm going to take a close look at reentering when the market opens b/c on the one hour we have made a lower low. If a candle pattern shows up on the 1 or 4 hr chart indicating a loss of momentum and a lower high, I think we will see lower prices. I'll posts the charts on my next post
no doubt,those trades were tc's according to the chart. however in Phillips terminology they were macd ct's. I agree on the short sentiment, I was hoping for eu and aud to fall before the weekend. now eu is sl be and aud is about to trigger sl by start of the next week. let's wait for some good entries
  • #22,998
  • Edited 9:30pm Jun 12, 2010 8:54pm | Edited 9:30pm
Quoting ashes
@Xeneric, I see the tl bounce possibilities, too. are you going to take the trades? audusd fits into a simmilar pattern.
right timing is important with these countertrend trades
I'd suggest using rsi8 and drawing a lower trendline. if that trendline gets crossed at candle close then enter. a macd confirmation would be a good thing, too.
aud example attatched
Sorry for taking so long to reply. I did take the trade but I should have known better because it turned out to be a risk appetite day. The Dow ended up going up over 200 points. Also it didn't surprise me that it went through my trendline (which was drawn lower than the current trendline on your chart) because there were a lot of stops accumulating above the 1.2000 level. Normally it is very safe to put your stops above a round number but because there were a lot of stops accumulated there over a period and there was so much euphoria that day, I had anticipated a run for the stops.
  • #22,999
  • Edited Jun 13, 2010 3:47am Jun 12, 2010 9:12pm | Edited Jun 13, 2010 3:47am
Quoting ashes
shorting

eurusd @1,2084, r=80
audusd @0,8437 r=75

both countertrend trades(according to macd), both half risk, speculating on a tl bounce.
I missed gu short 4h ago

edit:
eu has reached 0,5r, sl set to be
I agree with yours and Raymond's analysis. However, we need to be careful if we are shorting because there is divergence on the daily EU chart. Also, some of the big boys are going to be closing their positions soon for the summer holidays in July and August. Since everyone is short EU, I would expect that EU will go up as a result of the position closes. Volatility will also decrease over the summer holidays.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eud1.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #23,000
  • Jun 13, 2010 3:41am Jun 13, 2010 3:41am
Quoting Morelands
Here is the Daily and the 1 hr chart. The daily shows the strong support which is now acting as resistance. The hourly show the lower low and the possible lower high
Hi Raymond,
Same situation with GU. Here is hourly chart. It is easier to see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: guh1.gif Size: 20 KB
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