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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #16,341
  • Jun 10, 2010 4:25pm Jun 10, 2010 4:25pm
Quoting Zoran

Now when we take a position, say long USD, we can short EUR/USD. As a hedge we can also short cable GBP/USD and long yen USD/JPY. In this way we are hedged but we are now managing three different currencies.

What will happen

A) cable moves less(in your way) then the movement of EU against you.
b) Cable moves faster(away from you getting longer) then EU (with you slowly)
c)Cable moves in opposite direction then EU.(it can happen EU and UJ are moving in same direction for last so many months which supposedly is that UJ should move against how EU moves.)


what i think personally at the end what it drills down is to

"Manage Risk a.ka $ Amount"

we have 5% (just a no) risk tolerance of our book now you can either spread that to multiple currencies or you focus on 1 currency...anything else hedge ...gamma ...beta..theta doesnt matter...


whats matter is how you manage this RISK



though i know FTI said something about options and i have looked on LEAPS on the currency markets and it has open some curiousity in my head...


Just putting my thoughts out there...

V
  • #16,342
  • Jun 10, 2010 4:32pm Jun 10, 2010 4:32pm
I don't think this has anything to do with options. fti would need a whole department to get into that area. The more I think about it the more I can see it has to do with managing spirals on cross pairs with the USD being the focus (or neutral).
  • #16,343
  • Jun 10, 2010 4:43pm Jun 10, 2010 4:43pm
Quoting luSan

"In every law of nature there is a major and a minor; a positive, a negative, and a neutral. Therefore, in cycles there must be a lesser, a greater and intermediate cycle, or cycles within cycles. Like Ezekiel says: "Wheel within a wheel.” " pag 78.

I assume this was taken from Gann's Tunnel book.

Essentially converting into the three kingdoms. The major is the USD and the minors are GBP, EUR and JPY. The positive would be something like GBP/USD and EUR/USD while the negative being USD/JPY. The neutral in this case is the USD. The cycles are just MM right? We use waves in differ timeframes also.
  • #16,344
  • Jun 10, 2010 4:50pm Jun 10, 2010 4:50pm
Quoting fti
Thanks, I 'll try.

Scouts are still out on the Eur and cable on the long of usd.
My size, is sized up , and working at X5.(within Spiral)
Makes sense in this post. Long USD - the position focuses on the neutral and not the pair.
  • #16,345
  • Jun 10, 2010 4:53pm Jun 10, 2010 4:53pm
Quoting fti
maheswara, try not to follow me now, dance to your norm.

I am getting into level 5, so if I rescue , its gonna be big in ratio to my norm. The fact that I may have to invove level 6, is making me hedge accross currencies to weigh the attack heavy if I have to. This requires me to spiral within the spiral to leverage on that the attack, if it comes. The deficit of not having much foreign cap since returning from my holidays is not a plus factor. Therefore I have to impliment te level 6s very carefully. Parts of level 5 is already in positions.

regards

Level...
It all seems fairly obvious now. I'm not sure why I didn't see it before?
  • #16,346
  • Jun 10, 2010 4:55pm Jun 10, 2010 4:55pm
Quoting Zoran
Makes sense in this post. Long USD - the position focuses on the neutral and not the pair.
although
it sounds somewhat odd..
I will think about it.
Thanks
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #16,347
  • Jun 10, 2010 5:08pm Jun 10, 2010 5:08pm
Quoting fti
JFYI, I went very long 13670cost, and they tryng to squeeze me.
I will be going very high skew to kill them soon.
be careful
please do not follow me blind, use your dance capabilities.
I am very very fluid, due to size.

regards
Starts with EUR
  • #16,348
  • Jun 10, 2010 5:09pm Jun 10, 2010 5:09pm
Quoting fti
flipped high skews 72
Same trade as above.
  • #16,349
  • Jun 10, 2010 5:10pm Jun 10, 2010 5:10pm
Quoting fti
flipped again 77 very very high s
lets see who bleeds
skews spills into long cable
Same as the trade above, now spills into long cable.
  • #16,350
  • Jun 10, 2010 5:15pm Jun 10, 2010 5:15pm
Quoting luSan
although
it sounds somewhat odd..
I will think about it.
Thanks
Hi Lusan. It sounds right to me. Through my search I found one response from fti that gave me doubts but the majority seem to align with this understanding just right (along with what fti has posted about his trades).

I can see the dangers in this especially for anyone who hasn't mastered one spiral. Time to sleep on it.
  • #16,351
  • Jun 10, 2010 5:48pm Jun 10, 2010 5:48pm
Wow what a day. Looks like we're in for a short term rally in the euro, so let's continue to take it north. Getting ready for Tokyo and will not spend much time waiting for it to get moving. Tomorrow London has some interesting FA's and the US has Retail Sales at NY open. Should make for some fun end-of-week trading.

I see the discussion on spiral-within-spiral is ongoing. I have given up on this, as well as discussions on rescue. Zoran, you may have it correct in your latest analysis of the spiral thing, but unless fti endorses it, I would not trade it -- imho. I will stick with my analysis of it and go from there, because it seems to fit my trading style (what's wrong with being self delusional -- LOL). As for rescue: I rarely rescue a trade (maybe once every few years), and if I am doing so, something horrible has gone wrong (I was away from my trading station unexpectedly for several hours and the market reversed on me). On these two topics I can offer nothing so I will continue to skip any discussion.

Looking to get long on the euro if it happens. Take care my friends.
  • #16,352
  • Jun 10, 2010 10:33pm Jun 10, 2010 10:33pm
http://www.georgesoros.com/interview...economic_theo/
  • #16,353
  • Edited 1:24am Jun 11, 2010 1:11am | Edited 1:24am
Quoting Zoran
I assume this was taken from Gann's Tunnel book.

Essentially converting into the three kingdoms. The major is the USD and the minors are GBP, EUR and JPY. The positive would be something like GBP/USD and EUR/USD while the negative being USD/JPY. The neutral in this case is the USD. The cycles are just MM right? We use waves in differ timeframes also.
wouldnt cycles have to do more with time than mm ?
  • #16,354
  • Edited 2:51am Jun 11, 2010 2:34am | Edited 2:51am
Quoting fti
http://www.georgesoros.com/interview...economic_theo/
Hi fti,
I do like Soros' reflexivity theory. He's been banging about it for years now but it seems he still can't get enough popularity on it. No surprise actually, considering that mainstream media and politicians prefers paying attention to pundits like Stiglitz, rather then hitmen like himself

Regards

Most interesting on Bloomberg on the subject: http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm...OJ9PHQw_Cs.asf
  • #16,355
  • Jun 11, 2010 4:19am Jun 11, 2010 4:19am
Quoting lilpip
wouldnt cycles have to do more with time than mm ?
Gann spoke about cycles within cycles and we change that to spiral within spirals - which is MM. We spiral on the waves which is a cycle. Hope that makes sense
  • #16,356
  • Jun 11, 2010 7:10am Jun 11, 2010 7:10am
Quoting fti
http://www.georgesoros.com/interview...economic_theo/
Thanks fti, very interesting read. I have a difficult time reading anything Soros writes. The underlying message seems to always be that he knows what is best for all of us. His hatred for conservatives in the US (therefore, me) is well documented. He finances the progressive (read that as Socialist) movement in the US, so in my mind, anything he says is suspect. Smart guy, but dangerous.
  • #16,357
  • Jun 11, 2010 8:36am Jun 11, 2010 8:36am
here is a interesting read http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gue...ide-road-ahead
  • #16,358
  • Jun 11, 2010 8:53am Jun 11, 2010 8:53am
so how does all these affect the currency trader ? especially the currency crisis part.
  • #16,359
  • Jun 11, 2010 9:00am Jun 11, 2010 9:00am
classic exhaustion. anyone made a killing shorting gbp today? i think im just lucky lately...can feel its running out soon lol!
  • #16,360
  • Jun 11, 2010 9:07am Jun 11, 2010 9:07am
Happy weekend all. Unfortenately Czechs arent in worls football championship. So, i am a fan of Germany and Slovakia. Go,go,go! brothers!!!
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