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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #13,361
  • Feb 7, 2010 2:39am Feb 7, 2010 2:39am
Quoting nqmoto
Hello,

. I used to be a professional gambler and i can assure you that NO type of progression works in the long run. The chance always catches up with you ... Used all kind of progressions at Horse racing , tennis, roulette, blackjack... never, ever worked.
This is where you need to draw the line between gambling and forex. Or you will never stop gambling. Take a minute to think about it

P.S. Hubawo e da sreshtna oshte edin bylgarin naokolo
  • #13,362
  • Edited 3:21am Feb 7, 2010 2:48am | Edited 3:21am
Quoting nqmoto
Hello,

I discovered this thread not long ago ......
However there is one option for progressional recovery to work... A monster hit rate, lets say 75%. And here comes the grand question, if you have that kind of hit rate, do you really need the services of progressions ? These kind of traders say they have zero tollerance for losses... BS! Don't you know, that only losers are scared of losses ? What's the matter with you ?The only thing it does it adds to the already high stress level of this business. Some will...
Sure, with a 75% monster hit rate we do not need the added stress of "progression" (I assume progression refers to skew in attack and rescue).

The chicken and egg question is how to achieve a 75% monster hit rate CONSISTENTLY without using "progression" when no one (chartists, quantifiable TA and system followers, Elliotists, Gann esoterics, astrologists etc etc) can predict the market? For me "no one" also includes price action naked dancers, no matter how skilful.

Our only ammunition is our money (troops in AOW lingo), to dynamically adjust our exposure to snowball profit without snowballing risk would invariably involve some form of scaling in and out.

If I get it wrong, I am all ears.

I agree traders must learn to take loss and reduce exposure, fti has repeatedly said so throughout the thread although he also stressed the importance of having a strong mindset in defending every troop and not be a pig.

Regards
Baifu

Edit: Profit/Loss is not a function of hit rate alone
P/L = %win*avg win - %loss*avg loss
avg win_loss is a not just a function of number of pips, it also depends on the pip value (position size)

I have no control how far the market will go (how many pips) but I can control and adjust how much one pip is worth (position size). Now I realize the rigidity of pre-determined R:R ratio based on win rate (my former MM), this is one of many valuable lessons I have learned from this thread. Thanks again to fti and all veterans. I have now finished Lounge and am well on my way in the second read of TAF
  • #13,363
  • Edited 3:37am Feb 7, 2010 3:10am | Edited 3:37am
Hello,

This isn't about gambilng or forex ( i regret now mentioning that ). It's about the nature of chance. Progression will decrease your morale in the long term more times, then the losses will. So, -5 pip. Is that really enough to spoil the mood ? Sun Tzu said ,that one ,that is destined to win great wars, never let small wins or losses affect him.

As far as the rigidity thing ... It's absolutely true. This is one big difference between the world of bets and forex. You can and have to manage it live. Many people say in forex you must have goals ... I couldn't disagree more. I never have sl or tp, always live in the moment. My opinion is that one's lifestyle should be the same. Taking no more than life has to offer and consistantly doing the best thing in the moment, in the NOW. Sun Tzu sais " Deal with the problem that is close to you , and you will achieve goals, far from you". However, snowballing puts one's head in the bag. I've even tried progression in poker, without giving attention to the odds, just to experiment. Guess what? It failed There's no even chance game, which you can beat increasing the bets. Try and paper test coin tossing, where there are no commissions,and sure enough you will make the same conclusion! I will try to convince you further later.

And my hit rate example wasn't right. It refers to predictable win or lose situations. "Hit rate" word is bad habbit from betting. We all know, that one can have 30% hit rate in forex and still be a winner. Let's say profit exceeds losses by 1/3d consistantly.

P.S. Ne znaeh 4e i tuka sme pluznali... Kazvai otkade si na kolko godini, kak se kazvash davai skaip.
''That's all it takes really - pressure and time''
  • #13,364
  • Feb 7, 2010 5:23am Feb 7, 2010 5:23am
Quoting nqmoto
Hello,

This isn't about gambilng or forex ( i regret now mentioning that ). It's about the nature of chance. Progression will decrease your morale in the long term more times, then the losses will. So, -5 pip. Is that really enough to spoil the mood ? Sun Tzu said ,that one ,that is destined to win great wars, never let small wins or losses affect him....
I'm sure your familiar with bet sizing, specially in cards by increasing your size when the count is in your favor. A similar thought is applied here, with the exception that price action is not a random walk (although there's no way we can be 100% certain in the directions continuation).

Rescuing is not a true martingale where doubled entries are added by chance, but more in lines of quadrupling down when the dealer shows 6, your holding 11 and all that's been played the last few hands is deuces through nines.

fwiw,
  • #13,365
  • Feb 7, 2010 5:53am Feb 7, 2010 5:53am
Hi Friends,

glad to see that you are all still in here.
Hope you are all doing well.

Have very little time these days, but I'm still trading fulltime based on fti's teachings. Hope that I'll find some more time the next weeks/months to read all the new postings since November last year.

Wish you all the best!

CU,
MaMood
  • #13,366
  • Feb 7, 2010 6:08am Feb 7, 2010 6:08am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Friends,

glad to see that you are all still in here.
Hope you are all doing well.

Have very little time these days, but I'm still trading fulltime based on fti's teachings. Hope that I'll find some more time the next weeks/months to read all the new postings since November last year.

Wish you all the best!

CU,
MaMood
Good to hear from you. You must have had an interesting time in the last week trading your favourite pair USD/JPY, especially last Thursday and Friday. I am still just trading the EUR/USD but could not help watching the action on the USD/JPY.

Kind regards Ray
  • #13,367
  • Feb 7, 2010 7:08am Feb 7, 2010 7:08am
Some important reading imho,

http://www.upi.com/Daily-Briefing/20...9821261058769/

=

http://www.france24.com/en/20091225-...12-real-estate

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...401588_pf.html

Makes sense. Maybe whiskey is vodka? or red is actually blue?
Bids are actually offers

Please stay nimble..
Regards to all, especially the boss fti, good to see you write.
  • #13,368
  • Feb 7, 2010 10:19am Feb 7, 2010 10:19am
Quoting jacson101
Some important reading imho,

http://www.upi.com/Daily-Briefing/20...9821261058769/

=

http://www.france24.com/en/20091225-...12-real-estate

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...401588_pf.html

Makes sense. Maybe whiskey is vodka? or red is actually blue?
Bids are actually offers

Please stay nimble..
Regards to all, especially the boss fti, good to see you write.
The W-Post article will make serious material for Republican guns coming soon as this years election banter heats up. Public outrage should be at a fevered pitch by November.

Truly unbelievable, I can see them funding to hold up Fanny and Freddie, as their public demise, (even though currently insolvent) would spark the final run on Wall Street and the Banks.... but the Bonus' admist the witch hunts currently in progress on AIG and the likes, is truly unbelievable.

You don't hear that on the evening news?
  • #13,369
  • Feb 7, 2010 10:20am Feb 7, 2010 10:20am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Friends,

glad to see that you are all still in here.
Hope you are all doing well.

Have very little time these days, but I'm still trading fulltime based on fti's teachings. Hope that I'll find some more time the next weeks/months to read all the new postings since November last year.

Wish you all the best!

CU,
MaMood
Mamood, You still power dancing?
  • #13,370
  • Feb 7, 2010 7:34pm Feb 7, 2010 7:34pm
My head was with Indy and the heart was with New Orleans.
congrats New orleans.
  • #13,371
  • Feb 8, 2010 5:12am Feb 8, 2010 5:12am
I think we are at a very low level (euro) and its worth the risk to play the upside ... offcourse always be prepared when down trend kicks in again ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #13,372
  • Feb 8, 2010 5:17am Feb 8, 2010 5:17am
Quoting maheswara
I think we are at a very low level (euro) and its worth the risk to play the upside ... offcourse always be prepared when down trend kicks in again ...
mahes,
stay nimble.
be aware of gross manipulation.
and esp thin volumes, so runs occur as well as suppression to range by manipulation.

dance carefully, watch the size and stay very very nimble.

regards
  • #13,373
  • Feb 8, 2010 5:24am Feb 8, 2010 5:24am
Quoting fti
mahes,
stay nimble.
be aware of gross manipulation.
and esp thin volumes, so runs occur as well as suppression to range by manipulation.

dance carefully, watch the size and stay very very nimble.

regards
noted sir ,
as nimble as possible off course
good trading to u sir
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #13,374
  • Feb 8, 2010 5:41am Feb 8, 2010 5:41am
Quoting maheswara
noted sir ,
as nimble as possible off course
good trading to u sir
JFYI, I went very long 13670cost, and they tryng to squeeze me.
I will be going very high skew to kill them soon.
be careful
please do not follow me blind, use your dance capabilities.
I am very very fluid, due to size.



regards
  • #13,375
  • Feb 8, 2010 6:02am Feb 8, 2010 6:02am
Quoting fti
JFYI, I went very long 13670cost, and they tryng to squeeze me.
I will be going very high skew to kill them soon.
be careful
please do not follow me blind, use your dance capabilities.
I am very very fluid, due to size.



regards

I ve build a long too , both eu and gbp , feels gbp has more upside potential for the moment ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #13,376
  • Feb 8, 2010 6:15am Feb 8, 2010 6:15am
flipped high skews 72
  • #13,377
  • Feb 8, 2010 6:22am Feb 8, 2010 6:22am
Quoting fti
flipped high skews 72
Hello Fti, great to see you in action... Thank you.
  • #13,378
  • Feb 8, 2010 6:28am Feb 8, 2010 6:28am
flipped again 77 very very high s
lets see who bleeds
skews spills into long cable
  • #13,379
  • Feb 8, 2010 6:29am Feb 8, 2010 6:29am
Quoting fti
mahes,
stay nimble.
be aware of gross manipulation.
and esp thin volumes, so runs occur as well as suppression to range by manipulation.

dance carefully, watch the size and stay very very nimble.

regards
Got caught going the wrong way twice today. Out at the moment, may stay out until tomorrow. Regards and good trading to all. Ray
  • #13,380
  • Feb 8, 2010 6:34am Feb 8, 2010 6:34am
NOW YOU CAN SEE THE MANIPULATION?

Lets see who bleeds.
bring them on
.
It small time market makers trading against retail positions now.

Ok I am in stealth mode.
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