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  • #12,621
  • Jun 10, 2010 2:03am Jun 10, 2010 2:03am
Quoting Scotty2Cues
Hi, started trading 3 months ago, demoing profitably and hopefully live next month.

looking at the gbp/usd. Overall DT on weekly ( bearish pin bar on weekly). Weekly yet to close above support.

On the daily, looks like a head and shoulders forming? Thinking of sell stop for 1.4540 or 1.4490 (I think 1.45 is key)

(Wider horizontal blue rectangels are fib confluences form narrower blue rectangles - from daily)

What you think?
Thanks

EliteJets - i assume its you on t2w?
I am the same although have not been there for a long time

I like your cable idea and the weekly looks like a bear flag but cable has a nasty habit of going sideways for a long time, then sharply retracing to a fib level.

You could make an argument for a long also. Higher lows, an engulfing followed by an inside bar. If the inside bar breaks long it also breaks the trend line and if it then takes out the high at 1.4770 we have higher lows, a higher high and ... we are on our way up.
  • #12,622
  • Jun 10, 2010 2:30am Jun 10, 2010 2:30am
Quoting elitejets
I am the same although have not been there for a long time

I like your cable idea and the weekly looks like a bear flag but cable has a nasty habit of going sideways for a long time, then sharply retracing to a fib level.

You could make an argument for a long also. Higher lows, an engulfing followed by an inside bar. If the inside bar breaks long it also breaks the trend line and if it then takes out the high at 1.4770 we have higher lows, a higher high and ... we are on our way up.
ok thanks!
What are you using as the definition of an egulfing bar? I use J16 so for bullish engulf second bar totally engulfs previous bar with higher close and so there are none on my chart. Are there other types?
Also do you ignore sunday bars?
  • #12,623
  • Edited 4:17am Jun 10, 2010 4:07am | Edited 4:17am
Quoting Raje$h
Hi Simpleman,

Worker seems to have made a HL and if breaks above 1.25 a HH but both Boss and Big Boss seem to be on the way down from 1.30 level.

Could you share your thoughts on this?
I am just following TL as you can see the overall Trend is looking up to me. Last two BB candles were down but still within the uptrend channel. On B chart that gives us direction it is making HH & HL. On the worker as you said has made HL as well.

My target after entry would be 128.50 which is confluence of TL & R. If price goes above 132 & stays then I will be extremely bullish.
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  • #12,624
  • Jun 10, 2010 4:51am Jun 10, 2010 4:51am
Quoting Lou
Where is the analysis? What use have you made of the tools described and used by the members of this thread to make the trading decision you have posted?

This is nothing more than an advertisement for your website and products. Isn't there a rule on the forum about this type of soliciting?
Thanks Lou. This guy and anwarsadique have had their posting privileges removed
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,625
  • Jun 10, 2010 8:26am Jun 10, 2010 8:26am
Quoting Scotty2Cues
ok thanks!
What are you using as the definition of an egulfing bar? I use J16 so for bullish engulf second bar totally engulfs previous bar with higher close and so there are none on my chart. Are there other types?
Also do you ignore sunday bars?
Hi Scotty
I mean by engulfing that the open and close engulf the open and close of the previous candle, but with different broker closes my candle might be different to yours.

I don't ignore Sunday bars but I am pretty cautious with them, there have to be a lot of other reasons why I want to be in the trade and not just that Sunday bar (as in it has to be a v good level).
  • #12,626
  • Jun 10, 2010 1:17pm Jun 10, 2010 1:17pm
Quoting elitejets
Hi Scotty
I mean by engulfing that the open and close engulf the open and close of the previous candle, but with different broker closes my candle might be different to yours.

I don't ignore Sunday bars but I am pretty cautious with them, there have to be a lot of other reasons why I want to be in the trade and not just that Sunday bar (as in it has to be a v good level).
I don't ignore Sunday bars

Neither do I - we were in one all day last Sunday in West Yorkshire and we will be in another in Dublin this coming Sunday celebrating the coming win over the US!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,627
  • Jun 10, 2010 3:13pm Jun 10, 2010 3:13pm
LOL @ Strat!!
If you are near London and fancy a pint in one of those Sunday Bars Strat drop me an email!! Hic! Or even the Mess??

Welcome back Jets too! Been missing you!! I hope you are well?
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #12,628
  • Jun 10, 2010 4:45pm Jun 10, 2010 4:45pm
Quoting strat
I don't ignore Sunday bars

Neither do I - we were in one all day last Sunday in West Yorkshire and we will be in another in Dublin this coming Sunday celebrating the coming win over the US!
"British Comedian/Folk Singer (TURNED TRADER?) Richard Digance has been performing since the early 1970's. With numerous television shows and stage tours, his brand of humour has been a particular favourite...."

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  • #12,629
  • Jun 10, 2010 10:30pm Jun 10, 2010 10:30pm
Some potential pasture off Aussie-dollar
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From the tips to the dips, it's all about the pips
  • #12,630
  • Jun 10, 2010 10:35pm Jun 10, 2010 10:35pm
...and one piece of news; good or bad depending on which side of the coin you're on:
Soros Says ‘We Have Just Entered Act II’ of Crisis
From the tips to the dips, it's all about the pips
  • #12,631
  • Jun 11, 2010 8:19am Jun 11, 2010 8:19am
Quoting theforexpert
Some potential pasture off Aussie-dollar
Your posts are out of context for this forum.

Please read the thread and participate accordingly in the form of currency pair analysis. Tips and trade recommendations without analysis are not permitted on this thread and provide no educational benefit.
  • #12,632
  • Jun 11, 2010 11:16am Jun 11, 2010 11:16am
theforexpert has had his posting privileges removed due to promoting his commercial website.

TO ALL LURKERS AND THOSE WITH COMMERCIAL INTERESTS

STOP POSTING ON THIS THREAD AND GO FORTH AND MULTIPLY!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,633
  • Edited 10:09am Jun 12, 2010 10:07am | Edited 10:09am
My first analysis for the week is AUDCAD – Overall Trend is DOWN

BIG BOSS: Is down with last month’s BEOB that was extraordinary big whereas this month prices went down to test 61.8 fib that was drawn from the low in Feb 2009 to the high of Oct 09. The low of last month had also been taken before it bounced back to where it has closed last week.
BOSS: last week’s candle has closed higher than the previous week close but still below the 100ema and 250sma and pair is making LL & LH.
WORKER: As you can see price has seen resistance by 20, above 20 I can see confluence of long term 50fib, short term 61.8(38.2) fib, static resistance and finally TL and all of this is in between 88.30 – 89.50

Conclusion: I am watching very closely as it is getting close the point where I will be interested to go short with valid PA.

Any comments will be welcomed.
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  • #12,634
  • Jun 12, 2010 10:11am Jun 12, 2010 10:11am
My second analysis for the week is AUDCHF – Overall Trend is UP Again



BIGBOSS: Last month BEOB was the only month when prices closed below the previous two months and this month so far it is a DRAGONFLY. Prices have been respected by 61.8 fib drawn from the high of Nov 07 to the low of Oct 2008 and have closed back above TL.
BOSS: has closed above 100/250 and also above 95.30 resistance and 97.00 TL.
WORKER: Closed above 20 and very close to 50 and 38.2 or 61.8 fib. Next resistance is at 98.50.

Conclusion: I will be long above 98.50 with valid PA just to make sure the break of TL is not fake.
Any comments will be welcomed.



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  • #12,635
  • Jun 12, 2010 8:03pm Jun 12, 2010 8:03pm
Quoting elitejets
Firstly sorry I have been gone so long. Wasn't so well, better now.

This is what Strat calls a buy signal ... last weeks cover
Indeed...none better
  • #12,636
  • Jun 14, 2010 9:57am Jun 14, 2010 9:57am
Monthly chart.
We are at "the" level. Now we need the price action.
Great risk:reward if we get it.
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  • #12,637
  • Jun 14, 2010 4:05pm Jun 14, 2010 4:05pm
USDCAD looks good, too!
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My humble opinion.
  • #12,638
  • Edited 5:00pm Jun 14, 2010 4:50pm | Edited 5:00pm
Hi all.
I have been reading the thread since late last year but am only 220 pages through and feel i am learning alot.
I would like to post a setup i have seen this evening to see how my progress is going, so if anyone could give me any feedback it would be much appreciated.

Thanks and here goes:

NZDUSD

BIG BOSS - after the big boss (bond?) shooting star of october 2009 the immediate trend has changed to bearish whilst the overall trend is also bearish after placing the lower high of october 09 (confirmed by big boss close below SS and below support at .7150.

BOSS - the boss is stair stepping down while making LLs and LHs. The BOSS 20 just crossed below the BOSS 50 and pirice is below both. the candle of 16/5 closed below the last swing low.

WORKER - we have what i believe to be a bond shooting star as it is not large enough in comparison to the last few candles, however there is confluence of .7000 resistance, the worker 50, the boss 20, and also the rising DSRI taken from the two swing lows of 8/2 and 4/3. the wick is also just shy of the 61.8 fib pulled from the last larger swing.

Plan: I would be looking to enter this trade just below the SS with a stop just above(which is also above resistance)
My first of three profit takings would be at .6750. if price managed to break this i would move my stop just above the .6750 R and look for price to reach .6450 where i would take the second portion of my profit and look for price to break this. i would again move my stop above the .6450 R and trail in a similar manner for as long as needed.

I hope i havent been rude posting this monstrosity as my first post!

Any feedback would be much appreciated.

Thanks, Ben.
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  • #12,639
  • Jun 14, 2010 5:27pm Jun 14, 2010 5:27pm
Quoting benkm108
Hi all.
I have been reading the thread since late last year but am only 220 pages through and feel i am learning alot.
I would like to post a setup i have seen this evening to see how my progress is going, so if anyone could give me any feedback it would be much appreciated.

Thanks and here goes:

NZDUSD
Hi Ben,
Good to see you posting here. Just few questions for my understanding.

What made you think it will go down 500+ pips?
I don't see on your charts 100ema & 250sma, any reason?
If it is bond SS then why would you trade it? (I am not saying don't trade it)
  • #12,640
  • Jun 15, 2010 12:56am Jun 15, 2010 12:56am
hello simpleman.
cheers for the reply.
my thinking was that we are in a down trend and is was more of an "if" than a "when" we make it down to these levels, however maybe they are a little far fetched, and maybe i need to add in some more minor SR for my targets.

the bond shooting star, i didnt think the shadow on this was quite long enough to be a "real" shooting star, so i called it a bondy but it wasnt far off if you were to ask my inexperienced eyes. also, the fact that there were 4 different things it had all bounced off (wheteher they were valid or not i dont know).

On closer inspection, i would be trading right into support at .6884. something i originally overlooked. that wouldve been unfortunate.

the 100ema and 250sma are left off my charts as i find the clutter it a little, i see where price is in relation to these on the boss chart. is that ok?

there is some reasoning for the points you brought up.

Go new zealand!! first world cup game since 84!

Ben
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