Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

Hey Benny, you dont need my permission. Please post the pic of your baby.

Btw, you can consider this thread as yours, I'm a bit busy with the other thread but if you guys like posting here it will be nice and I'll try to post from time to time.

EUR/USD #954

AUDUSD 1H RSI Bullish Divergence

HI Shahab,
I had a look at your trade #12, I agree with the trade, but according to my charts, AUD rarely drops in Moon hour, in the last 12 months of my tradeing major drops have been ( 72%) in saturn hour which today starts at 15:13 sydney time ( about 28 min from now). I will change my position in 15 min from long to short for one hour based on your trade call and my astrological charts, lets see if how it pans out.
Regards,

near as I can tell you sold at strong intrady support that had been tested on 3 occassions already. The market rarely gives so many chances to buy and yet you sold
your position lost 30 pips during that period and was never more than 3 pips in profit. I dont understand the application of astrology to price movement and I have no idea how effective your statistics will be going forward. I do think in this case it was pretty obvious that this was likely to be one of the 28% times the saturn hour was not going to produce a drop. I think it may be helpful to consider the context of actual price action with your astrological statistics when making such time specific predictions. In this instance you could have at least waited til proven support broke and saved yourself a loss.
Do you have any result statistics for your method? I would be interested to find out how effective your technique is

EDIT: 2nd chart I was successful selling the break of the same support level for 20 pips later in the session - 1900 sydney time

hi
in attached picture (source Timing chart), seems spec and commercial traders are both in extreme levels, so are we should expect increasing in AUDUSD (even temporary )???????????

i confused by other options, and i will be grateful if any body help me to using the better numbers or... for example
i compare my chart with shahab's one,(in this post http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3560 )
and i found that there was different between large traders indicator of mine with shahab's one??/
and the rang of numbers is 0 to 100 but in shahb's chart is something else like -50 to 100 .

It's sad to see the drop in activity on this thread since Shahab started the new one. Since I don't have the required juice to post on that one I'll keep posting here for now.

Gold broke over its previous all time high last night (barely). I've updated my previous chart (5/21) to show the sub-waves and a target for this move before we get the next retrace. It looks like we still have about $50 per oz to go before we take a serious move south, however gold likes to exceed the standard targets so watch for that. The next major retrace will probably be in the range of $75 to $100 per oz and find a home in the low 1200's then a final move into the high $1300's to low 1400's.

HI Shahab,
Just logging in to close my trades. DOW is up 140 points from my second entry with double lots. I took a short with you on the dollar, and went long again. Closing my longs on USDJPY, AU and DOW. They will be up a touch more, but since I am busy today, will not be trading till Friday.

I think DOW will take a 3% fall. Take care and safe trading.

I am impressed. You were dead on, on DOW and AUD longs. I think you may be right on USD/J long term as well. Good work.

SSI: Retail Traders Confident in AUDUSD’s Bearish Breakout, Fight Tuesday’s Bullish Bounce
Tuesday, 08 Jun 2010 20:38 GMT Written by John Kicklighter FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

SSI Details:
EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.31 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.45 as 59% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.8% lower than yesterday and 20.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.7% higher than yesterday and 16.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.5% weaker than yesterday and 7.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.
GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.12 as nearly 53% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.04 as 51% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.8% higher than yesterday and 21.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.6% lower than yesterday and 23.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.2% stronger than yesterday and 6.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.
GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.35 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.28 as 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.6% higher than yesterday and 14.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.7% lower than yesterday and 5.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.2% stronger than yesterday and 3.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.
USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.73 as nearly 63% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.55 as 61% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.8% higher than yesterday and 3.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.9% lower than yesterday and 9.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.6% stronger than yesterday and 1.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.
USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 1.03 as nearly 51% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.70 as 63% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 25.3% higher than yesterday and 19.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 29.0% lower than yesterday and 18.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 8.9% weaker than yesterday and 7.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.
USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.61 as nearly 62% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.20 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 10.2% higher than yesterday and 10.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 17.8% lower than yesterday and 12.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.5% weaker than yesterday and 0.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.
AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 1.05 as nearly 51% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.68 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 19.2% lower than yesterday and 1.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 28.8% higher than yesterday and 6.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.3% weaker than yesterday and 7.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD losses.
NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 2.49 as nearly 71% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.08 as 76% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 24.2% lower than yesterday and 39.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 5.9% lower than yesterday and 16.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 19.7% weaker than yesterday and 0.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.
How to Interpret the SSI? The FXCM SSI is based on proprietary customer flow information and is designed to rze price trend breaks and reversals in the four most popularly traded currency pairs. The absolute number of the ratio itself represents the amount by which longs exceed shorts or vice versa. For example if the EURUSD ratio is 2.55, long customer orders exceed short orders by a ratio of 2.55 to 1. Conceptually similar to contrarian analyses using the CFTC IMM open position data or COT Report, the SSI provides an alternative approach that is both more timely and accurate in forecasting currency price movement. The SSI is a contrarian indicator that tells you how the market is weighted and where the trend may head. More long positions don't necessary suggest more confidence in the direction of the current trend. In general, when traders start having adverse movements against their position, many tend to increase the size of their position with the purpose to average down their entry price in one last attempt to recover from previous losses. However, the higher the number of short orders in a bull market the more dangerous is to take additional shorts because many of those traders who just entered the markets are also leaving their protective stop losses just above the current price action.

You were spot on. Well done. I think if you give us the astro sign and the interpretation I can adjust it into chart. For instance , This week first you took long while I was reading short on the chart- I was right- then you took another long and I wasn't reading short on the chart neither did I read long so I took short again, which was wrong. Now I'm bearish , let's see if Dow falls on June 9th as you predicted.

seems like the euro ready to ride the bull

http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/5417/eu1q.png

Hey Ben - we just retested broken resistance on USDX. We'll see ....

dollar index looks good on your chart, confirm :

http://img218.imageshack.us/img218/453/dollarindex.png

Hi Shahab,
I have been traveling and will be back home tonight. Dont have access to my charting software so havent done any trades. Saw your trade call for AU short, although you are spot on with the call, as I mentioned yesterday, AU normally takes major dives in Saturn hour which today starts at 17:52 sydney time. A few minutes of overlaping can happen from time to time. So if you are going short, I would suggest look at the astro signs as well. I hope this helps.

When I am back home and am trading again, I will make comments about astro signs ( only the ones that I am sure of). It would be good if you can include them in your charts as well. This should work well.

Regards

Here are a couple more astro hours calls:

Sun Hour ------ Normally AU goes up even in the down cycle. Lenght of move differs from day to day.
today it is from 21:32 to 22:42. Today being a jupitors day it should come back up reasonably

Saturn hour ----- Shorting time
Friday 02:12 am to 03:22 Fall should be moderate.

(All Sydney times)

Accuracy of these are about 72% and I am still collecting data. If we can get these to match up with your charts, i can send you a spread sheet that I have programed to calculate astrological hours.

Lets see and compare notes.

By the way I see Dow taking a dive tonight at about 12:00 am sydney time. My estimation is down to 96XX by close of Friday. Dates to worry about are 26th June and 11th July.

I should mention this again for those who are new in trading, please make sure that these figures agree with your charts, as anything can happen in this market.....

SSI: NZDUSD Ratio Flips Following 78% Jump in Short Positions, RBNZ Rate Decision
Thursday, 10 Jun 2010 10:38 GMT
Written by Michael Wright

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:




Intraday Highlight:

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.27 as nearly 56% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.20 as 69% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 36.2% lower than yesterday and 10.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 77.9% higher than yesterday and 31.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.5% weaker than yesterday and 96.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.05 as nearly 51% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.18 as 54% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.9% lower than yesterday and 11.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.2% higher than yesterday and 28.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.8% weaker than yesterday and 108.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.13 as nearly 53% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.13 as 53% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.8% higher than yesterday and 0.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.8% higher than yesterday and 14.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.8% stronger than yesterday and 119.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.06 as nearly 51% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.10 as 52% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.2% higher than yesterday and 12.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.6% higher than yesterday and 11.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.8% stronger than yesterday and 121.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.01 as nearly 50% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.22 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.5% higher than yesterday and 34.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 26.1% higher than yesterday and 60.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 14.2% stronger than yesterday and 167.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 1.22 as nearly 55% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.07 as 52% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 6.1% higher than yesterday and 36.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 18.5% lower than yesterday and 13.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 6.6% weaker than yesterday and 112.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.99 as nearly 67% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.74 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.4% higher than yesterday and 3.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 7.9% lower than yesterday and 12.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.6% stronger than yesterday and 103.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.44 as nearly 59% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.18 as 54% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 1.1% lower than yesterday and 5.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 20.2% higher than yesterday and 47.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 10.4% stronger than yesterday and 137.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

Nice one I saw your CMC charts with that funky price action on the other thread. I have an account with CMC (UK). I don't trade it very often but I did a few years back. I experienced this kind of funky price action that no other chart was showing more often than I would have liked. They are the worst broker that I have traded with not only because of this but also because of other problems.

Funny you should say that....a close frind here in NZ also had some very strange pa that cost him quite dearly....he closed the account and went to another broker. Must be a world wide CMC thing?

I have had numerous problems with CMC, but the reasons for me staying with them is firstly the range of CFDs ( indices, shares, and FX), their spreads on fx and margins ( .5% on indices and FX). I have been able to put up with their other incompetencies. After all they are part owned by Goldman..... These can be expected.