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Tony's Two Candle trading system

  • #301
  • Jun 8, 2010 6:17pm Jun 8, 2010 6:17pm
Quoting terminex
I meant to say , moving average cross alerts.
The settings are not working for me.
Are your settings faster EMA-1, slower EMA-2 instead of the default settings of 5/8? The 1/2 settings seem to coincide with candle color change quite nicely.
  • #302
  • Edited 8:18pm Jun 8, 2010 7:22pm | Edited 8:18pm
Hi Guys...

Just throw in whatever indi or EA or even a whole new software into this or any trading system to make you more comfortable using it. Then practice and develop your intuition and perception with the experience of using it.

Grow our skills with the system like Mr. Tony did with this system. With a discipline, hopefully one day we might taste the fruit of our labor. Maybe Like Mr Tony did with this (his) system here.

Thanks to Mr Tony, nightpiper, kraven and everybody in this thread...

Keep the pips comin guys!
  • #303
  • Jun 8, 2010 7:26pm Jun 8, 2010 7:26pm
Quoting chazbo 3071
Are your settings faster EMA-1, slower EMA-2 instead of the default settings of 5/8? The 1/2 settings seem to coincide with candle color change quite nicely.
Yes well can you help with the settings.
I change the 5/8 with 1/2 right?
If that's the case then I get candles on almost ever bar..
  • #304
  • Jun 9, 2010 12:13am Jun 9, 2010 12:13am
Terminex I had the same, see a few posts back.

I had to re-load it. It still gives the odd red down arrow on an up green bar but remember it's just another visual aid. use the bars as your real guide.
  • #305
  • Jun 9, 2010 12:21am Jun 9, 2010 12:21am
Maybe you can share your charts so newbies like me can understand it better?
  • #306
  • Jun 9, 2010 3:12am Jun 9, 2010 3:12am
iamnoel don't know if that was directed at me?

At the moment i'm looking at several different strategies (15min to 4hr). Pretty confusing at the moment as I have several on the same charts.
Plus I'm still not sure if this system is valid. If I do come up with something for this i will post it.
  • #307
  • Jun 9, 2010 3:43am Jun 9, 2010 3:43am
Ok here's a pic.

ignore big blue and purple arrows and squiggly blue line and the Demark lines. they belong to different trials which i don't want to go into.

I have ADX at 9. when +DI line (green) goes through -DI line (red) it indicates a change in trend to BUY (up). pink squares.
when this line >20 its a stronger trend, when it passes ADX gray line it very strong trend up.

Reverse for SELL (black squares)

this is just an observation and trying this in real time may be different.

Note the MAcrossover alert (little red and blue arrows) are sometimes wrong. I've circled these pink.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pic 21.GIF Size: 66 KB
  • #308
  • Jun 9, 2010 10:10am Jun 9, 2010 10:10am
Well I've had a very good day. I find when the $ dives as it did this afternoon it makes making pips a lot easier.

Didn't really try this system today. Even though it's still on my charts. So I hope those who did done well.

Been running a few other systems of late and they all came good today bigstyle. Will look at this again sometime this week too see if anyone's found a reliable filter.
  • #309
  • Jun 9, 2010 10:23am Jun 9, 2010 10:23am
Hi all,

Not sure if the origanal 5/8cross you are using is the same as mine ( which is on the template i sent earlier ) as i do not have any problems which some of you seem to have . I will try and upload a copy for you to try.

one in mq4 the other in ex4

Thanks
Nightpipper
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 5-8openEMA_Cross_Arrow_with_Alerts.mq4   4 KB | 714 downloads
File Type: ex4 5-8openEMA_Cross_Arrow_with_Alerts.ex4   5 KB | 536 downloads
  • #310
  • Jun 9, 2010 11:24am Jun 9, 2010 11:24am
New to FF so thanks for having me.

I started reading this thread about 2 nights ago (I have only been through the first 7 pages so the conversation may have changed direction), but I thought it would be interesting to "forward test" throughout the day at work when I had a few minutes.

I captured the screen shot below at about 0840 EST (1240 GMT). Times on the chart are EST (GMT-4). The breakout boxes are from the EU 5M TF. White arrows are entry and yellow arrows are TP. (Note: The data is not from a broker but from CMS FOREX.....I can't get to my broker at work).

If you sat down to your computer at 0300 EST (0700 GMT as Tony recommends), used a 10 pip SL / TP, and used the 0300 EST Bull close to trigger your 0400 Bear setup.....you would have a 100% win rate (3 for 3 in 6 hours) through 0900 EST.

Trade 1 is outside of the recommended time period....but a winner.

Trade 2 would have hit the TP exactly to the tenth of a pip. (you probably would have had to use discretion here since it was so tight. It would depend on how many decimal places you can see)

Trade 3 was a winner, but it was deceptive. As you can see in the breakout box. PA ran straight up and hit the TP before retracing.

Trade 4 since the 0700 candle closed bear (slightly) the 0800 then became a setup for a winning trade within the 0900 candle. (the 0900 did retrace after this screen shot, but an easy winner).

I've continued to watch throughout the day (now 1400 EST / 1800 GMT), and there is actually another winner using the 1200 and 1300 EST candles.

That is 4 wins in 4 trades (5 if you count trade 1 which is outside the recommended time period), and if you have Tony's bankroll (enough to trade 50 Lots) you just pocketed $20K.

Not bad.......I'll have to keep an eye on this one.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9 June 10.jpg Size: 175 KB
  • #311
  • Jun 9, 2010 11:49am Jun 9, 2010 11:49am
Nice chart izzysdad.

It was a fairly consistent trend this afternoon (GMT). I tried the original hr chart (Tony's idea) but not for 10pips (more like 20). I take it you didn't watch each candle form? Did none hit the 10pip SL first?
  • #312
  • Jun 9, 2010 1:22pm Jun 9, 2010 1:22pm
Quoting kraven
Nice chart izzysdad.

It was a fairly consistent trend this afternoon (GMT). I tried the original hr chart (Tony's idea) but not for 10pips (more like 20). I take it you didn't watch each candle form? Did none hit the 10pip SL first?
Nope.....none the 10pip SL. If you go back and look at the 1M and 5M timeframes....none of the trades hit their SL before hitting TP (I just went back to check the 5M for the afternoon trade). I did not watch anything form before about 0730 EST (1130 GMT), but I did go back to the 1M and 5M charts to get a feel for how they would have formed. I don't think any of the trade candles actually reached their SL at any time. Some were close (specifically the afternoon trade that wasn't in the chart...was about 1.5 pips away).

I went with the 10 pip TP to get the higher win %. That said, only time will tell if it will produce over 90% winners (as Tony indicated for his regular pair).

It can't always be this easy though. You are correct that the trends were pretty bullish during the AM hours of the NY session.

I'll keep watching to see how this plays out over a longer test period.
  • #313
  • Jun 9, 2010 3:09pm Jun 9, 2010 3:09pm
Quoting kraven
Ok here's a pic.

ignore big blue and purple arrows and squiggly blue line and the Demark lines. they belong to different trials which i don't want to go into.

I have ADX at 9. when +DI line (green) goes through -DI line (red) it indicates a change in trend to BUY (up). pink squares.
when this line >20 its a stronger trend, when it passes ADX gray line it very strong trend up.

Reverse for SELL (black squares)

this is just an observation and trying this in real time may be different.

Note the MAcrossover alert (little red and blue arrows)...
The reason you see "wrong" sinals is because when the two MAs cross it will show the "signal" on the charts. And if you watch MA crossings they sometimes cross, then "open" back up again and move in its original direction. So this indi leaves a signal when the MAs actually cross (not at the close of the candle) and will leave it there even if the MAs open back up. And then it will leave a signal again at the next crossing. Hope that helps.
  • #314
  • Jun 9, 2010 5:54pm Jun 9, 2010 5:54pm
Did you account for the spread?

Quoting izzysdad
New to FF so thanks for having me.

I started reading this thread about 2 nights ago (I have only been through the first 7 pages so the conversation may have changed direction), but I thought it would be interesting to "forward test" throughout the day at work when I had a few minutes.

I captured the screen shot below at about 0840 EST (1240 GMT). Times on the chart are EST (GMT-4). The breakout boxes are from the EU 5M TF. White arrows are entry and yellow arrows are TP. (Note: The data is not from a broker but from CMS FOREX.....I can't...
  • #315
  • Jun 9, 2010 6:55pm Jun 9, 2010 6:55pm
I was not able to fully account for the spread when making the chart. My info was not that good (internet feed at work), but going forward I plan to use by broker's data each evening.

That said. IMHO. If a good trader were watching this all happen I think it still would have been a profitable day. Three of them would have won easily (if you assume a 2.5-3 pip spread (including the first trade and the trade in the NY afternoon.......NY afternoon may not have made a full 10, but a close on candle close would have netted most). The other 2 (I can't see them right now, but I think they were trades 2 and 3) could have been closed out as winners if you were watching the 5M during the trade. I think that is particularly true on trade 3 where you can see the hourly high right next to the arrow (in the breakout box) and about 15 minutes later you can see a lower high. You may have wanted to exit at that point (lower high) considering there wasn't that much time left in the hour and you had most of your 10 pips. Trade 2 may have been tough, but even there you would have had to close on candle close. You might have lost 2-3 pips.

After all that, I think you could conservatively say the you would be net positive 15-25 pips.

Like I said.....it can't be that easy. It did look promising though.

Cheers
  • #316
  • Jun 9, 2010 7:27pm Jun 9, 2010 7:27pm
Helo all...

Been doing observation with this strategy for a couple of days or so and I know that the ATR and ADX is always "too much details" to read for me so I tried different approach. RSI is my favorite.

Please check this out:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2Candle-with-RSI5.jpg Size: 213 KB


Chart above is EU H1, FX Pro Demo GMT +2.

Observation time: Look for Candle that touch the outer bands or even better when they passed the bands and hits a known resistance or support level. RSI 5 Pass 70 for sell and 30 for buy..

Trade: Exactly when you hear the sound of the Green/Red arrow appears. SL at Top or bottom of the same candle with Arrow. (around 10 - 20 pips ussually, but it depends on how soon you enter the trade after you hear the allert).

Been shooting for 10 pips and won. But as you can see that all the trades have a good potential to developed further more with this.

Maybe we can shoot for 20-30(?). Surely I need to find the best exit strategy to define the best time to bail out from the trade. Suggestion needed here.

Those are the good thing, now the bad things.
If you are not watching the chart all day, you have to be lucky enough to be there when this thing happens. I was lucky enough to get 3 trades in last 2 days.

Won straight 30 pips in 3 trades. Worth it if we play with big lots, but for mini lots I dont know if it's worth the time.

Maybe we can get more signal with less timeframe but I could see that the RSI somehow get less reliable on less time frame(?).

For some of us who dont have much time in front of Computer, maybe we can play this strategy with multiple pairs opened for better chances to get signals and enter when you see one......I dont know...need to test further...

EA maybe?
  • #317
  • Jun 9, 2010 8:18pm Jun 9, 2010 8:18pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=239353

If anyone wants to trade based on price action without watching a one hour chart, you might want to check out the above thread. Similar premise, but better indicator, IMHO
  • #318
  • Edited 9:53pm Jun 9, 2010 9:20pm | Edited 9:53pm
Similar strategy with post 316.

I try to figure out what would happen if I apply thie rules on post 316 to UJ-H1.
Not actually taking the trade, only observing.

Check this out.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2Candle-with-UJ_RSI5.jpg Size: 232 KB


Sorry if a bit confusing, but I just think that this might be worth to look.

Red for trades without RSI 5 and outer band cross approval. Some won and some lose

Yellow (Yellow) for trades with RSI 5 and outer band Approval. All Won.

I think if I include the midline-bands as approval, we can add some winner here.

Will try this further but I will not put or try another indi on it as it will only complicate this system too much.

If this one fail for me then I'll go with Tony's original and practice further more to develop my instings and skill...

Thanks Tony.
  • #319
  • Edited 3:53am Jun 10, 2010 3:40am | Edited 3:53am
For EJ cross...

In last couple of days, It looks like you can win 20 pips easily if you enter a trade everytime an arrow appears on H1. Please take a look at my sweetspots 10 pips levels on background.

The only trade that migh not yield for 20 pips is the one I mark with white circle.

Take a look....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2Candle-with-EJ_RSI5.jpg Size: 244 KB


Could it be the best Pair for this strategy....
I dont know...

PS: I like to keep my TP and SL Hidden, that's the reason for Swiss Army EA.
  • #320
  • Jun 10, 2010 3:55am Jun 10, 2010 3:55am
Quoting NiceGuy
For EJ cross...

In last couple of days, It looks like you can win 20 pips easily if you enter a trade everytime an arrow appears on H1. Please take a look at my sweetspots 10 pips levels on background.

The only trade that migh not yield for 20 pips is the one I mark with white circle.

Take a look....

Attachment

Could it be the best Pair for this strategy....
I dont know...

PS: I like to keep my TP and SL Hidden, that's the reason for Swiss Army EA.
Is the arrow formed at the end of the candle?
What are the settings for the arrows?

thanks
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