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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #6,801
  • Jun 9, 2010 8:36am Jun 9, 2010 8:36am
Quoting MktScape
this one is making a lower high and current in a struggling pullback against the counter trendline. Looks like a suitable candidate on hector style BPC entry.

anyone else watching it?
well, it should make a lower low and then retrace. right now it just made a higher low. So in a sense the trend stopped for now.
  • #6,802
  • Jun 9, 2010 8:59am Jun 9, 2010 8:59am
Quoting Custos
I shorted it at the h4 level price is currently at.
I see ...now thats why your R:R would be -ve becuase the SL is quite wide compared to to entry point ....however i am thinking that when you initial stop loss is this wide then you would have to lower your position size to meet to % risk profile.?
  • #6,803
  • Jun 9, 2010 9:03am Jun 9, 2010 9:03am
you want a foolproof strategy? short USD when bernanke is speaking
  • #6,804
  • Jun 9, 2010 9:13am Jun 9, 2010 9:13am
Quoting randomperson
you want a foolproof strategy? short USD when bernanke is speaking
....yes when that guy speaks ...things start falling apart ...especially USD.
  • #6,805
  • Jun 9, 2010 9:13am Jun 9, 2010 9:13am
Quoting MktScape
I see ...now thats why your R:R would be -ve becuase the SL is quite wide compared to to entry point ....however i am thinking that when you initial stop loss is this wide then you would have to lower your position size to meet to % risk profile.?
yep, that is true. There is always a trade-off. But the risk of getting stopped out at the emergency stop loss is quite low, cause I am seeking to get out sooner.
Depends on your risk & personality profile.
  • #6,806
  • Jun 9, 2010 9:38am Jun 9, 2010 9:38am
Quoting Custos
yep, that is true. There is always a trade-off. But the risk of getting stopped out at the emergency stop loss is quite low, cause I am seeking to get out sooner.
Depends on your risk & personality profile.
So once you are in the trade (on H1) you would monitor it in the 15M and move SL to breakeven ... whats your criteria to move SL to B/E i.e. as soon as price moves in the trade direction ,or after X # of pips or after the close of one bar in trade direction or after price makes a swing , high/low on the 15M after which you will move the SL to B/E/.

I think I am moving the SL to B/E too soon becuase price is bouncing back and stopping trade out.
  • #6,807
  • Jun 9, 2010 9:47am Jun 9, 2010 9:47am
Quoting MktScape
So once you are in the trade (on H1) you would monitor it in the 15M and move SL to breakeven ... whats your criteria to move SL to B/E i.e. as soon as price moves in the trade direction ,or after X # of pips or after the close of one bar in trade direction or after price makes a swing , high/low on the 15M after which you will move the SL to B/E/.

I think I am moving the SL to B/E too soon becuase price is bouncing back and stopping trade out.
if you talk about range trading, then I never move stop to b/e. I just either get out at target, stop loss, or reverse my position.
if you talk about trend trading, then I trail my stops behind S/R levels. There I either get out at my trailing emergency stoploss or when an S/R level flips to the wrong side of the trend and try to get out at the retest.

So, no, I don't move stop to b/e normally, just trailing it behind S/R levels.

And if I trade h1, I don't care about m15.
  • #6,808
  • Jun 9, 2010 10:03am Jun 9, 2010 10:03am
Quoting Custos
if you talk about range trading, then I never move stop to b/e. I just either get out at target, stop loss, or reverse my position.
if you talk about trend trading, then I trail my stops behind S/R levels. There I either get out at my trailing emergency stoploss or when an S/R level flips to the wrong side of the trend and try to get out at the retest.

So, no, I don't move stop to b/e normally, just trailing it behind S/R levels.

And if I trade h1, I don't care about m15.
Have you tried doing it and what was your experience. I am asking this becuase i have read a lot in favour of moving SL to breakeven to get a free trade i.e. zero risk but when i doing it i am getting stopped out more often ...
  • #6,809
  • Jun 9, 2010 10:11am Jun 9, 2010 10:11am
Quoting MktScape
Have you tried doing it and what was your experience. I am asking this becuase i have read a lot in favour of moving SL to breakeven to get a free trade i.e. zero risk but when i doing it i am getting stopped out more often ...
well, it depends on the strat you are using. With my previous sniper strat moving stop to b/e very early was key to make this profitable.
Yes, it does reduce risk to zero, but very often you get stopped out. Again it's a trade-off. Let's say I am now in favor of letting the market develop, since I kind of get the market now better than I did before. Also I have now lots of faith in that strategy I use, since I did a lot of testing. (thanks again for the forextester thing)
So, depends on your strat, your personality and on your faith in that strat. But right now I am against moving stop to b/e.
  • #6,810
  • Edited 11:13am Jun 9, 2010 10:41am | Edited 11:13am
Todays discussion has shed somelight on some key aspect which i was thinking about and was experiencing some challenges i.e. width of SL and whether, if and when to move SL to B/E.

In quite a few trades .... i was thinking that if only i had placed the SL wide enough and shouldnt have moved the SL to berakeven too soon.

BTW i just remembered that Hector method is to monitor the trade on the lower TF and move Sl to swing highs/lows only.

To fine tune my undertanding i'll seek some input limit order placement, & SL placement. I mean i want to see if you would have used the same levels for the limit orders and SL placements.


Ciao
  • #6,811
  • Edited 12:51pm Jun 9, 2010 11:47am | Edited 12:51pm
okay, no problem, if you got a trade I can tell you how I would have done it. Anyways, remember that my personality is different from yours and maybe you would wanna do things differently, I can just give suggestions here. But you need to decide what is then right for your trading.

cheers
Quoting MktScape
Todays discussion has shed somelight on some key aspect which i was thinking about and was experiencing some challenges i.e. width of SL and whether, if and when to move SL to B/E.

In quite a few trades .... i was thinking that if only i had placed the SL wide enough and shouldnt have moved the SL to berakeven too soon.

BTW i just remembered that Hector method is to monitor the trade on the lower TF and move Sl to swing highs/lows only.

To fine tune my undertanding i'll seek some input limit order placement, & SL placement. I mean i want...
  • #6,812
  • Jun 9, 2010 12:19pm Jun 9, 2010 12:19pm
Here is another trending setup. Eurjpy d1. Would enter right now short.

Let's see how it works out
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy d1 9.6.2010.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #6,813
  • Edited 2:13pm Jun 9, 2010 12:48pm | Edited 2:13pm
Quoting Custos
okay, Anyways, remember that my personality is different from yours and maybe you would wanna do things differently, I can just give suggestions here. But you need to decide what is then right for your trading.

cheers
completely agree with you there .... in due time and with trial & error i should be able to settle with an overall strategy that fits my style and personality.
  • #6,814
  • Jun 9, 2010 3:47pm Jun 9, 2010 3:47pm
cad/jpy h4 is also a good setup in my opinion. weekly is in a slow but steady uptrend, and now h4 is now slowly but steadily getting up.

would appreciate any comments
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy h4 9.6.2010.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #6,815
  • Edited 10:35pm Jun 9, 2010 5:52pm | Edited 10:35pm
Quoting Custos
cad/jpy h4 is also a good setup in my opinion. weekly is in a slow but steady uptrend, and now h4 is now slowly but steadily getting up.

would appreciate any comments
My comments/observations would be as follows:
1- This uptrend appears to be a sluggish one...on H4 we can see that previous swing lows have been broken.
2- Price is getting compressed in a triangle with a head and shoulder formation. The second has a divergence compared to 1st one... potential weakness on short term
3- Exp MAs (All 3 terms 30,50,100) are appears more or less sideways indicating price movement essentially sideways
4- Second last bar is a bearish top reversal on high vol followed by a narrow range up bar on low vol (no demand)

Just Read the news so i thought i would mention that as well:
Japanese economy showing signs of strength
Canadian trade balance due in 9 hours ....

I think price will meander sideways until the news release on Canadian economy.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY-H4.jpg Size: 139 KB
  • #6,816
  • Jun 10, 2010 12:16am Jun 10, 2010 12:16am
I agree with you about the h4 being a little ugly, but as mentioned in my original post it is the weekly time-frame that makes me believe that this uptrend will hold for now. One has to take all time-frames into considerations, especially the higher time-frames.
Quoting MktScape
My comments/observations would be as follows:
1- This uptrend appears to be a sluggish one...on H4 we can see that previous swing lows have been broken.
2- Price is getting compressed in a triangle with a head and shoulder formation. The second has a divergence compared to 1st one... potential weakness on short term
3- Exp MAs (All 3 terms 30,50,100) are appears more or less sideways indicating price movement essentially sideways
4- Second last bar is a bearish top reversal on high vol followed by a narrow range up bar on low vol (no demand)

Just...
  • #6,817
  • Jun 10, 2010 3:04am Jun 10, 2010 3:04am
Another short opportunity right now: gbpusd d1.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd d1 10.6.2010.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #6,818
  • Edited 7:55am Jun 10, 2010 7:45am | Edited 7:55am
Quoting Custos
Another short opportunity right now: gbpusd d1.
Looks like this one broke through the immediate resistance level however the next resistance level at 1.4800 looks pretty strong.
  • #6,819
  • Jun 10, 2010 7:57am Jun 10, 2010 7:57am
Don't give it up yet. Right now it's just a spike through. It immediately turned below the resistance level again. But let's see...
Quoting MktScape
Looks like this one broke through the immediate resistance level however the next resistance level at 1.4800 looks pretty strong.
  • #6,820
  • Jun 10, 2010 8:02am Jun 10, 2010 8:02am
cad/chf h4. I am waiting for a pullback back to my light blue area for a long-entry. Open your daily chart, then you see it trending up nicely.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadchf h4 10.6.2010.gif Size: 25 KB
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