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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #6,781
  • Jun 8, 2010 12:39pm Jun 8, 2010 12:39pm
holding a short from this morning in usdjpy...seeing if this key area will hold or not for the eject button
not sure if i want to go long yet on eurgbp, waiting for some hints that 8290 area will hold
  • #6,782
  • Jun 8, 2010 12:58pm Jun 8, 2010 12:58pm
Quoting randomperson
holding a short from this morning in usdjpy...seeing if this key area will hold or not for the eject button
not sure if i want to go long yet on eurgbp, waiting for some hints that 8290 area will hold
hmmm....i'll review some charts this evening and post ... EURGBP appears to be picking up some strength but lets see if it holds and hopefully there is any new default news from the eurpean union.
  • #6,783
  • Edited Jun 9, 2010 7:36am Jun 8, 2010 10:42pm | Edited Jun 9, 2010 7:36am
this one is making a lower high and current in a struggling pullback against the counter trendline. Looks like a suitable candidate on hector style BPC entry.

anyone else watching it?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CHFJPY-H4.jpg Size: 119 KB
  • #6,784
  • Edited 4:47am Jun 9, 2010 12:14am | Edited 4:47am
Quoting MktScape
this one is making a lower high and current in a struggling pullback against the counter trendline. Looks like a suitable candidate on hector style BPC entry.

anyone else watching it?
do you wanna know something about chfjpy or audusd? your title says chfjpy, your chart says audusd.
a little confused over here.

best regards
  • #6,785
  • Jun 9, 2010 5:40am Jun 9, 2010 5:40am
Hi folks!

Blimey this threads slowing down badly. hmm...

Where has everyone gone? Literally overnight? :/

Anyways,

I was wondering a general question to everyone here...

When was your biggest turning point from realizing this could become your full-time career? Did it have to do with your mindset, methods,...? Anything in particular that "clicked" for you?

Also, ive been looking at previous days highs / lows as an idea which might be stupid or might not. I dont know so forgive my "rookie-ness"

If within a range would it be possible to (for example) trade bounces of the previous days high and low? In essence it would be range trading...

Then, once it does break (or flips, like randomperson says) and confirms in essence we would then begin to trade "with" the new established trend since it confirmed the breakout of the range.


Does any of this make sense? Anybody have any thoughts / critics on this?

Sos for the noobieness.
  • #6,786
  • Edited 6:11am Jun 9, 2010 5:59am | Edited 6:11am
Quoting Pipalicious

Where has everyone gone? Literally overnight? :/
well, there was no new question anymore to be answered, that's why there is probably no post from anybody.

Quoting Pipalicious
When was your biggest turning point from realizing this could become your full-time career? Did it have to do with your mindset, methods,...? Anything in particular that "clicked" for you?
For me there was never really a turning point. I always knew it can be done. It's just a matter of time, persistence and learning through mistakes. Your mindset should be to constantly learn and evolve. If you are stuck with something it should be pretty damn good, otherwise try to evolve.

Quoting Pipalicious
Also, ive been looking at previous days highs / lows as an idea which might be stupid or might not. I dont know so forgive my "rookie-ness"

If within a range would it be possible to (for example) trade bounces of the previous days high and low? In essence it would be range trading...

Then, once it does break (or flips, like randomperson says) and confirms in essence we would then begin to trade "with" the new established trend since it confirmed the breakout of the range.


Does any of this make sense? Anybody have any thoughts / critics...
well, it sounds like a good idea, but that's a thing you have to test out. But it's good that you start thinking by yourself, that is exactly what it's about. Don't try looking for the next best thing. Try to identify patterns you see yourself in the market, and test them out. That's the only way to get it.
  • #6,787
  • Jun 9, 2010 6:17am Jun 9, 2010 6:17am
Quoting Custos
well, there was no new question anymore to be answered, that's why there is probably no post from anybody.


For me there was never really a turning point. I always knew it can be done. It's just a matter of time, persistence and learning through mistakes. Your mindset should be to constantly learn and evolve. If you are stuck with something it should be pretty damn good, otherwise try to evolve.



well, it sounds like a good idea, but that's a thing you have to test out. But it's good that you start thinking by yourself, that is exactly...
Hey Custos,

Cheers for your reply

I do try to evolve and think on my own. However i must admit that until i learned about hector i was stumbling quite a bit.

And funny enough i believe its mostly psychological. Because in the end of the day we can do 3 things as far as im concerned.

Trend trade, range trade, or breakout trade.

Be it intraday / intraweek is sepperate but the principle is the same.

Now, i know trading with the trend is the way to go for me, especially on 4h tf.

However, when it comes to trading ranges each one has their own method based on their profile. Thats cool. But the point is all succesfull methods are based around the same principles...s/r.

And that leads me to the post i sent before this one about range trading.

I totally agree we range most of the time. I totally agree that by the time we identify a well established trend it pretty much is half way through - nearly finished.

So what im saying is that what really resonates with me personally is the "concept" (if we can call it that) of trading trends with s/r in the "brick" style so to speak (like danuk - brv).

But when it comes to range trading i struggle to identify the "major" s/r on an intraday basis.

Thats how i came up with the concept of using the previous days highs / lows.

Is there anything in particular that you look for when range trading on the hourly charts?

previous days high/low? s/r on higher tf?

hope this makes sense.

and thanks again dude!

pip
  • #6,788
  • Jun 9, 2010 6:32am Jun 9, 2010 6:32am
Quoting Pipalicious
I do try to evolve and think on my own. However i must admit that until i learned about hector i was stumbling quite a bit.
I hear you, was the same for me. I think the most difficult thing is to get to realize what counts. And since there are so many indicator based things out there, guys don't even look at price. But once you realize that price is the only thing that you should look at, you already won half of the game. Then it's just a matter of finding a system around your psychology & price.

Quoting Pipalicious
Is there anything in particular that you look for when range trading on the hourly charts?

previous days high/low? s/r on higher tf?
hm, I could maybe foresee a problem with the daily highs and lows, was just thinking of it now. As I mentioned in a previous post, we all live in different time-zones, thus those daily highs and lows can be very different for people in asia, london and ny. Just as a side note.

Now, what do I look for? Maybe two charts can explain it again better. Again, I just search for recent hesitations of price or "flips" as randomperson coined it. If you are unsure of an area, then go back in time a bit (that's why I said I don't totally ignore them, just it doesn't matter that much). But if you are really unsure if an area is an S/R level, just look back and see if it was used as one before. Then you can either mark it up or leave it.
But I tell you, don't get frustrated with S/R levels, the more you mark them up, the better you can identify real S/R levels. Screentime is important with that.

Does that answer your question?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd h1 9.6.2010.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud h1 9.6.2010.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #6,789
  • Jun 9, 2010 6:36am Jun 9, 2010 6:36am
And another thing which can be maybe beneficial. I didn't try it yet, but I imagine it could be good for you. If you are unsure of an S/R level let's say on the h1, go to the h4 and look if you can identify it there. If you can, it should be a really strong one. If not, it is maybe a weak one...

Just play around with those ideas.
  • #6,790
  • Jun 9, 2010 6:40am Jun 9, 2010 6:40am
Another idea could be to draw some fibs and reinforce the S/R levels that coincide with fibs. Of course in a range fibs are sometimes difficult to draw. Just some ideas.
  • #6,791
  • Jun 9, 2010 6:45am Jun 9, 2010 6:45am
Quoting Custos
I hear you, was the same for me. I think the most difficult thing is to get to realize what counts. And since there are so many indicator based things out there, guys don't even look at price. But once you realize that price is the only thing that you should look at, you already won half of the game. Then it's just a matter of finding a system around your psychology & price.



hm, I could maybe foresee a problem with the daily highs and lows, was just thinking of it now. As I mentioned in a previous post, we all live in different time-zones,...

I see.

So you basically take into account the *most recent* reactions of price. And i imagine you do this for the 1h tf only.

I suppose higher timeframes you start taking more into account historical price reactions.

Ive been involved in this amazing business just over a year now. And i must say im extremely greatfull that when i started i never ever once considered adding indicators and squiggly lines as such.

Maybe i found the right people at the right time, but i essentially learned about supply/demand and hence s/r.

The most ive ever had on my charts where the 3SMA and even that made me feel a bit... "hmmm"...

However, that doesnt mean i still struggle identifying *key* s/r areas. So im still plodding along doing it...

Now, with regards to the previous days high and low i forgot to mention that what i meant was doing this by identifying them ONLY on the 1h charts. Mainly due to what you mention that everyone has different charts and candle closes.

However, like you mentioned, we all see 1hr closes the same.

Either way im still looking into it and trying stuff out.

Also on a side note, with the charts you posted i see why you plotted your areas where you did. However, does this mean you are trading each and every reaction irrelevant of how close it is to the previous/next s/r?

And this takes me to your sl placement. Are you placing them behind are you expect to bounce or behind the next s/r area? And if so how do you account for favourable RR?

hope this makes sense.

and thanks for your time again.
  • #6,792
  • Jun 9, 2010 7:06am Jun 9, 2010 7:06am
Quoting Pipalicious
Now, with regards to the previous days high and low i forgot to mention that what i meant was doing this by identifying them ONLY on the 1h charts. Mainly due to what you mention that everyone has different charts and candle closes.

However, like you mentioned, we all see 1hr closes the same.

Either way im still looking into it and trying stuff out.
the h1 doesn't have anything to do with those daily highs and lows. Let me give you an example:
Let's say we have a trader based in london. Let's say at 23:59 price made the daily high at 1.2000 for the london based trader. Now his daily bar is finished and closed. But the new york traders still have some hours to go until their day finishes and their daily bar closes. Let's say price now shoots up to 1.2500. Now what is the daily high? Is it 1.2 or 1.25? And those are only 2 time-zones. There are so many more time-zones out there. Gonna be difficult to identify the "real" daily highs and lows. Hope you understand what I mean.
Quoting Pipalicious
Also on a side note, with the charts you posted i see why you plotted your areas where you did. However, does this mean you are trading each and every reaction irrelevant of how close it is to the previous/next s/r?
well, not trading all the levels, but most of them, if I get a really bad R:R I might pass the trade.

Quoting Pipalicious
And this takes me to your sl placement. Are you placing them behind are you expect to bounce or behind the next s/r area? And if so how do you account for favourable RR?
Behind the next S/R area. Cause as I mentioned, I want to reverse my position if it goes against me, and that I can only do if I widen my stop to the next S/R level. And as mentioned in another post, my R:R is most of the time negative with this strat. But it works out anyways. I know, counter-intuitive, but as long as it works I am fine with that.
  • #6,793
  • Jun 9, 2010 7:38am Jun 9, 2010 7:38am
Quoting Custos
And another thing which can be maybe beneficial. I didn't try it yet, but I imagine it could be good for you. If you are unsure of an S/R level let's say on the h1, go to the h4 and look if you can identify it there. If you can, it should be a really strong one. If not, it is maybe a weak one...

Just play around with those ideas.
I do this to get some additional confirmation of the potential significant of the s/r area.
  • #6,794
  • Jun 9, 2010 7:43am Jun 9, 2010 7:43am
To get back to trend trading, the actual purpose of this thread. I post the aud/cad h4 chart.
black lines are weekly S/R levels, and light blue are the h4 S/R levels. Right now we are again at one of those h4 S/R levels. I am totally aware that just below we have weekly support. Anyways, gonna give it a shot. Emergency stop is my red dotted line. Now if that thing goes against me I prefer to get out at the retest from above of the current h4 S/R level.

This is trend trading only here, so I won't reverse position, just cancel it.

Any comments?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audcad h4 9.6.2010.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #6,795
  • Jun 9, 2010 7:45am Jun 9, 2010 7:45am
Quoting Custos
Now, what do I look for? Maybe two charts can explain it again better. Again, I just search for recent hesitations of price or "flips" as randomperson coined it. If you are unsure of an area, then go back in time a bit (that's why I said I don't totally ignore them, just it doesn't matter that much). But if you are really unsure if an area is an S/R level, just look back and see if it was used as one before. Then you can either mark it up or leave it.
But I tell you, don't get frustrated with S/R levels, the more you mark them up, the better...
Custos ..on chart # 2 .. all the S/R areas you have identified do you enter on most of these areas using limit order or when you are trading live you would wait for the price to react and some sort of confirmation first before entering ...especially when the S/R areas are quite close to each other?
  • #6,796
  • Jun 9, 2010 7:48am Jun 9, 2010 7:48am
Quoting MktScape
Custos ..on chart # 2 .. all the S/R areas you have identified do you enter on most of these areas using limit order or when you are trading live you would wait for the price to react and some sort of confirmation first before entering ...especially when the S/R areas are quite close to each other?
no, I would enter just when price touches the level. most of the time if price reacts it's already too late. And not going in on each S/R level if they are really quite close.
  • #6,797
  • Jun 9, 2010 7:51am Jun 9, 2010 7:51am
Quoting Custos
To get back to trend trading, the actual purpose of this thread. I post the aud/cad h4 chart.
black lines are weekly S/R levels, and light blue are the h4 S/R levels. Right now we are again at one of those h4 S/R levels. I am totally aware that just below we have weekly support. Anyways, gonna give it a shot. Emergency stop is my red dotted line. Now if that thing goes against me I prefer to get out at the retest from above of the current h4 S/R level.

This is trend trading only here, so I won't reverse position, just cancel it.

Any comments?...
just wanted to clarify .... so one this chart you are planning to short it at the h4 resistance right below the emergency stop?

BTW ...I have corrected the chart for CHF-JPY in my earlier post.
  • #6,798
  • Edited 8:25am Jun 9, 2010 8:13am | Edited 8:25am
Thanks for your sharing Custos very interesting stuff you dealing with

As for me, im going back to simplicity (my mindset that is) and focusing on staking bricks/trend trading 1h - 4h - d charts.

I think im better of being patient and waiting for the setups to appear. At least for now and my experience.

In the future i want to diversify methods like yourself and others...

Last question...

With regards to widening your stops and having negative RR on your trades:

I see what you mean with saying its counter.intuitive and it is for me lol. Especially if you get a series of bad trades it could damage your account IMHO.

However, i assume the reason you are doing this is for 1) allow breathing room for trade to reverse, which doesnt usually occur "to the pip". And 2) allows you to close the trade once it breaks through and confirms that level.

Am i correct in assuming this?

Thanks again.

Pip.


EDIT: point # 2 i meant that it allows you in "most cases" to get out at break even?
  • #6,799
  • Jun 9, 2010 8:31am Jun 9, 2010 8:31am
Quoting MktScape
just wanted to clarify .... so one this chart you are planning to short it at the h4 resistance right below the emergency stop?

BTW ...I have corrected the chart for CHF-JPY in my earlier post.
I shorted it at the h4 level price is currently at.
  • #6,800
  • Jun 9, 2010 8:33am Jun 9, 2010 8:33am
Quoting Pipalicious
However, i assume the reason you are doing this is for 1) allow breathing room for trade to reverse, which doesnt usually occur "to the pip". And 2) allows you to close the trade once it breaks through and confirms that level.

Am i correct in assuming this?

EDIT: point # 2 i meant that it allows you in "most cases" to get out at break even?
yes, allowing breathing room to reverse. And yes, in most cases to get out at b/e.
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