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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #22,961
  • Jun 8, 2010 6:24pm Jun 8, 2010 6:24pm
Hi Guys,

I have a question on trading TC pattern in EURUSD now. If MACD has reach as far as -45, and it is what it is as shown below, even if the MACD turn red, can we take this TC trade? 1.19 looks like a very strong support level. The last bearish TC signal did not follow through.

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/9351/eurusd2.th.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
  • #22,962
  • Jun 8, 2010 6:37pm Jun 8, 2010 6:37pm
Sorry, haven't had time to post too. I realised the reason why EU hasn't moved. It is sitting at the monthly 200 SMA. So it is sandwiched between the 200 SMA and the 1.2000 level. That's why it has hardly moved.

On the 1 hr, it is consolidating into a flag. When the breakout comes, it is likely to be a big one because it has to have enough momentum to break out of the flag and break through the monthly 200 SMA at the same time if it is going down.

The first chart is of the monthly and the second chart is of the 1 hr.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eum1.gif Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euh1.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #22,963
  • Edited 8:56pm Jun 8, 2010 6:51pm | Edited 8:56pm
Quoting wuming79
Hi Guys,

I have a question on trading TC pattern in EURUSD now. If MACD has reach as far as -45, and it is what it is as shown below, even if the MACD turn red, can we take this TC trade? 1.19 looks like a very strong support level. The last bearish TC signal did not follow through.

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/9351/eurusd2.th.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Hi Wuming

Sorry, don't understand your question but I will try and answer as best as I can. Please re-ask if I don't get it right.

The answer is price action is more important than the macd because the macd is not always reliable. If I were you, I would be watching for a breakout of the flag that I mentioned above.

In situations of strong support as you mentioned then you should not take a TC regardless of what the macd is indicating.

The price action is probably pulling back to the 21 EMA or the 50 SMA whilst consolidating inside the flag. When it reaches there, it is best to watch the candles to give you a clue as to when you can short again.
  • #22,964
  • Edited 11:30pm Jun 8, 2010 7:07pm | Edited 11:30pm
Quoting xeneric
Hi Wuming

Sorry, don't understand your question but I will try and answer as best as I can. Please re-ask if I don't get it right.

The answer is price action is more important than the macd because the macd is not always reliable. If I were you, I would be watching for a breakout of the flag that I mentioned above.

In situations of strong support as you mentioned then you should not take a TC regardless of what the macd is indicating.

The price action is probably pulling back to the 21 EMA or the 50 SMA whilst consolidating inside the...
Hi Wuming,

I forgot to include the trendline. It is also likely to go to the purple thick trendline before it goes down. Watch these areas and the candles to give you the right signals, then look at the macd for confirmation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euh1.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #22,965
  • Edited 11:30pm Jun 8, 2010 7:17pm | Edited 11:30pm
Quoting davidwu61
By the way;

Do we, the bloody retail trader, have access to this early release info and when shall we expect it ? I mean there is no clear price movement until asian close, the info shuld not be released before that.
As far as I know, everyone gets the same news releases these days with technology but the big banks have ways and means of finding out this sort of information through their research departments.

I think they started taking profit early - perhaps because they wanted to take partial profits or because their research departments told them that all the jobs were only temporary government jobs. Anyway, as the proverb goes, "the early bird catches the worm" and the ones that started profit taking early sold at the top and definitely made more pips than the ones who waited for the news release. As small traders we should stay out unless we know what we are doing otherwise we can easily lose a lot of money very quickly.
  • #22,966
  • Jun 8, 2010 7:20pm Jun 8, 2010 7:20pm
Hi xeneric,Yes, you got my question right.

I did look at the candles. Got short when it broke the mini flags down. I didn't take the 50pips profit and let it come back to breakeven. But now the price is ranging on 1.19. Price did retraced to 21 but still no follow through. I feel my psychology is messed up now. Don't know what direction to take. Sometimes I feel I should have taken the bullish harami with RB at 1.19. I actually did entered some longs in this range and ended up making losses...

http://img25.imageshack.us/img25/9351/eurusd2.gif

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  • #22,967
  • Jun 8, 2010 7:31pm Jun 8, 2010 7:31pm
Quoting wuming79
Hi xeneric,Yes, you got my question right.

I did look at the candles. Got short when it broke the mini flags down. I didn't take the 50pips profit and let it come back to breakeven. But now the price is ranging on 1.19. Price did retraced to 21 but still no follow through. I feel my psychology is messed up now. Don't know what direction to take. Sometimes I feel I should have taken the bullish harami with RB at 1.19. I actually did entered some longs in this range and ended up making losses...

http://img25.imageshack.us/img25/9351/eurusd2.gif...
It looks to me that you have nice strategy there trading the mini flags. You should just trade the mini flags by themselves. Why have a complicated system when you can have a simple system ?
  • #22,968
  • Jun 8, 2010 8:06pm Jun 8, 2010 8:06pm
hmm....really? The mini flags are working fine until only yesterday. I thought flags trades should not be done in a range. Kind of feel I am trying to be funny with the original 4hr strategy...the feeling got worse when price is squeezing between the 21ma and 1.19 support...
  • #22,969
  • Jun 8, 2010 8:54pm Jun 8, 2010 8:54pm
Quoting wuming79
hmm....really? The mini flags are working fine until only yesterday. I thought flags trades should not be done in a range. Kind of feel I am trying to be funny with the original 4hr strategy...the feeling got worse when price is squeezing between the 21ma and 1.19 support...
You can have many strategies but I think each strategy should not be too complicated.
  • #22,970
  • Jun 8, 2010 10:11pm Jun 8, 2010 10:11pm
Quoting silverfox88
Hi Yuan83, Ted1983,

Both of you born in 1983? Thanks for your comments. I am not sure why this problem happen but out of the 6 pairs I monitor, this is the only pair having such problem.
yes i m born in 1983. are u a 88 then?. hmm nobody reply to ur question .haha.
  • #22,971
  • Jun 8, 2010 11:59pm Jun 8, 2010 11:59pm
Quoting yuan83
yes i m born in 1983. are u a 88 then?. hmm nobody reply to ur question .haha.
No, I am not born in 88. Because I want 88, that's why my user id have 88
  • #22,972
  • Edited 5:59am Jun 9, 2010 3:20am | Edited 5:59am
have shorted

usdcad @1,0486, r=45 tp=2r above 200sma
price has made it through 89sma came back to 8/21ema and bounced off.
the tail of the signalcandle concerns me a bit but I'm risking it

usdchf @1,1518, r=45 tp=1 1/2r
same as on usdcad, price made it through 89sma, came back and bounced off
usdchf has reached 0,5r, sl set to be space inbetween 8/21ema
price has reached 0,5r, trade set to be

edit:
cad has reached 0,5r, sl to be

edit:
usdchf reached tp +1,5r

edit:
cad reached 1,5r, sl set to 1r

edit:
cad reached 1,75r, sl set to 1,5r

edit:
cad hit sl +1,5r
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad 4h 8.6.10.gif Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf 4h 8.6.10.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #22,973
  • Jun 9, 2010 4:02am Jun 9, 2010 4:02am
Quoting ashes
have shorted

usdcad @1,0486, r=45 tp=2r
price has made it through 89sma came back to 8/21ema and bounced off.
the tail of the signalcandle concerns me a bit but I'm risking it

usdchf @1,1518, r=45 tp=1 1/2r
same as on usdcad, price made it through 89sma, came back and bounced off
usdchf has reached 0,5r, sl set to be space inbetween 8/21ema
price has reached 0,5r, trade set to be
Hi Ashes,

Nice trade for usdchf. This pair is getting interesting and I am monitoring closely
  • #22,974
  • Jun 9, 2010 4:10am Jun 9, 2010 4:10am
Quoting silverfox88
Hi Ashes,

Nice trade for usdchf. This pair is getting interesting and I am monitoring closely
thanks, Silverfox. usdchf has been very unstable for the last weeks, I'm glad having spotted a clean move. at least the trade is running and be now.
  • #22,975
  • Jun 9, 2010 4:59am Jun 9, 2010 4:59am
Quoting ashes
have shorted

usdcad @1,0486, r=45 tp=2r above 200sma
price has made it through 89sma came back to 8/21ema and bounced off.
the tail of the signalcandle concerns me a bit but I'm risking it

usdchf @1,1518, r=45 tp=1 1/2r
same as on usdcad, price made it through 89sma, came back and bounced off
usdchf has reached 0,5r, sl set to be space inbetween 8/21ema
price has reached 0,5r, trade set to be

edit:
cad has reached 0,5r, sl to be
Nice to see your trades going so well. How did you get 2 charts side by side like that ?
  • #22,976
  • Jun 9, 2010 5:22am Jun 9, 2010 5:22am
Quoting xeneric
Nice to see your trades going so well. How did you get 2 charts side by side like that ?
thank you, Xeneric. on my computer the charts are displayed one under the other. maybe you have a large screen?
  • #22,977
  • Jun 9, 2010 3:48pm Jun 9, 2010 3:48pm
Shorted EURUSD at 11984 with sl 70 pips and tp at 11892. Let see how to develop from here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #22,978
  • Jun 9, 2010 5:59pm Jun 9, 2010 5:59pm
Quoting silverfox88
Shorted EURUSD at 11984 with sl 70 pips and tp at 11892. Let see how to develop from here.
Your trade going very well. Congratulations!
  • #22,979
  • Jun 9, 2010 6:10pm Jun 9, 2010 6:10pm
Hi,

Can we put SL above 21ma instead of the swing high? I remembered reading one of the articles, Phil sometimes put SL around moving averages when the swing points are far. But I'm not sure if this swing point is consider far enough.
  • #22,980
  • Jun 9, 2010 6:37pm Jun 9, 2010 6:37pm
Quoting xeneric
Your trade going very well. Congratulations!
Still too early to say until I close the position
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