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Silent Service Method

  • #9,021
  • Jun 7, 2010 2:21am Jun 7, 2010 2:21am
Quoting Low
thanks Chris, I appreciate your POV.
In the short term the swiss are having to cope with large net capital inflows to their banks from predominantly wealthy Germans trying to front run the new trading laws and restrictions that the German government are looking to place on their markets. Europeans are also trying to diversify out of the Euro and it is being reported that this is particularly strong in Germany again given fears of currency debasement as they experienced in past decades with their hyperinflation period.

Chris is correct about longer and IMO even medium term outlook for the CHF. The SNB actually went to negative exchange rates previously to halt the rise in their currency to keep their exports competitive. There seems to be a few prominent currency strategists now coming out in the media calling for an eventual weakening of the CHF that were not there in the past. It can't be a bad longer term trade idea. Just the nature of these flows vs intervention should make it a bit bumpy in the shorter time horizon. I guess that just mean more chances to sell back in right
  • #9,022
  • Jun 7, 2010 6:16am Jun 7, 2010 6:16am
Quoting 4xAddict
In the short term the swiss are having to cope with large net capital inflows to their banks from predominantly wealthy Germans trying to front run the new trading laws and restrictions that the German government are looking to place on their markets. Europeans are also trying to diversify out of the Euro and it is being reported that this is particularly strong in Germany again given fears of currency debasement as they experienced in past decades with their hyperinflation period.
Great point. Didn't even think of it - but makes perfect sense.
  • #9,023
  • Jun 7, 2010 6:28am Jun 7, 2010 6:28am
Hi all - quick question,

I sometimes see stocks being posted on this thread - do you all use stockcharts.com or can anyone recommend a broker/demo platform
for tracking them.

Also has anyone had any experience with forex futures or the CME?
If so was it good/bad?

Im asking really because sometimes spot forex doesnt offer A++ setups
as often as i would like and this thread has opened my eyes to the possibility
that stocks etc can be tracked and used as an alternative when the forex
markets are dead.

Many Thanks.
  • #9,024
  • Jun 7, 2010 8:07am Jun 7, 2010 8:07am
There has been a little talk lately about getting a bounce of the EUR, as well as perhaps a short of the USDCHF.

It seems to me that the technicals are pointing to the possibility that this may occur.

I don't have any plans to go long on the EUR, but there may be an opportunity to add to a short, or enter a new short on some of the pairs.

The weekly USDCHF shows that the price is at a logical position for at least a small pullback.

The EURJPY chart shows the PIN that I shorted. I took my profit at 110.00 because of support. It has broken 110 and is now testing it as resistance. I will be watching for an opportunity to enter a new short.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,025
  • Jun 7, 2010 9:49am Jun 7, 2010 9:49am
Watch the Pound. I have a bearish pin bar about to print on the 4 hour on the sterling, the GJ and the GBP-Swissy. All three of them are at important areas. Will post a chart here in a bit if they close as pins.
  • #9,026
  • Jun 7, 2010 11:03am Jun 7, 2010 11:03am
Quoting TraderDavo
Watch the Pound. I have a bearish pin bar about to print on the 4 hour on the sterling, the GJ and the GBP-Swissy. All three of them are at important areas. Will post a chart here in a bit if they close as pins.
Already on it boss.
  • #9,027
  • Jun 7, 2010 11:25am Jun 7, 2010 11:25am
Quoting clockwork71
Already on it boss.
cannot post a chart right now, but the 4H sterling did post a very nice bearish bar right on the the 1.45 mark (long term R/S). On top of that, we had a weekly bearish pin last week. This would be a good place to get in prior to the break of the weekly pin.

I like this trade a lot.
  • #9,028
  • Jun 7, 2010 11:29am Jun 7, 2010 11:29am
Quoting TraderDavo
We were briefly discussing "box" trading yesterday, and I wanted to point out one that I think is at a very interesting point right now: The GJ.

I first want to say that it is more of a "downward channel" than box, but the concepts are all the same....

This worked for 350 pips on friday, and I missed every one of them. I am not worried about missing it because it was NFP friday and the bar did not print as a really pretty PB, which is why I skipped it.

I was just pointing this out because it shows the power of channel trading!
  • #9,029
  • Jun 7, 2010 12:48pm Jun 7, 2010 12:48pm
Wanted to point something out because I have seen a few people talking about it in this thread.

The EURUSD has 2 "parities". Remember that it was introduced at 1.18, meaning that its actual USD parity is 1.18. This is why it shows up as such an important area.

There is also "psych" or common parity at 1.00, but that is actually below par value.

Just thought I would say that because I have seen a few people say things that indicate such might not be known.
  • #9,030
  • Jun 7, 2010 4:35pm Jun 7, 2010 4:35pm
Quoting TraderDavo
Wanted to point something out because I have seen a few people talking about it in this thread.

The EURUSD has 2 "parities". Remember that it was introduced at 1.18, meaning that its actual USD parity is 1.18. This is why it shows up as such an important area.

There is also "psych" or common parity at 1.00, but that is actually below par value.

Just thought I would say that because I have seen a few people say things that indicate such might not be known.
Thanks for pointing that out - I think you are correct, some guys may not know this!
  • #9,031
  • Jun 7, 2010 4:40pm Jun 7, 2010 4:40pm
E/J is looking awfully weak at the moment. Check out these two charts.
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  • #9,032
  • Jun 7, 2010 4:44pm Jun 7, 2010 4:44pm
Quoting clockwork71
Thanks for pointing that out - I think you are correct, some guys may not know this!
I know someone that didn't know this....I'll let him know now

Chris
  • #9,033
  • Jun 7, 2010 4:54pm Jun 7, 2010 4:54pm
Blog updated.
  • #9,034
  • Jun 7, 2010 8:42pm Jun 7, 2010 8:42pm
The Canadians raised rates the other day. Didn't seem to mean much. Which of course, means a lot. Check out what these charts could be saying....

It is looking all around you that can give you a "heads up" on what to look for in the near future.
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  • #9,035
  • Jun 8, 2010 8:27am Jun 8, 2010 8:27am
My late mother used to try and tell me that the truth is something that you can only hide so long. It's really too bad that some of these Swiss bankers weren't my brothers and sisters - they might have learned that lesson.

It appears that the SNB is intervening in the markets to weaken the Franc. They are trying to protect their banks, which are worth about 2 Trillion Euros.....while the Swiss economy is only worth about 500 Million Euros. We could see something ugly in Switzerland.
  • #9,036
  • Jun 8, 2010 10:05am Jun 8, 2010 10:05am
Last week's pb has just broken....

The ratings agency Fitch has stated that the UK needs to redouble efforts to cut its budget deficit - David Cameron's just made a sombre speech to soften the blow and the chancellor's turning to the public for suggestions!

By contrast, Japan's newly installed PM and cabinet may be providing some reassurance of stability.

Look out below! (I hope)
  • #9,037
  • Edited 5:31pm Jun 8, 2010 1:56pm | Edited 5:31pm
Hi Chris,

What are your thoughts regarding large banks circa Citi,JPM, BoA at present knowing that big smart money like Paulson, Ackman and others have taken large positions as the stocks got battered last week. I don't know whether to see this as a vote of confidence or just something they need to do to accumulate such large positions.

Does this raise questions for you regarding the linear nature of the current push down in the markets? Also do other things like Obama planning further stimulus make you think the next leg down may get pushed out towards the end of the year when the market is more focussed on next year's domestic tax relief getting wound back across the US economy?

I am not asking for a crystal ball (though it may appear so) but more insight into how you categorize such information and the importance that you place on it when you look at the charts right now. I can't help but pay attention to macro issues when looking at much longer term trade prospects that your method adopts. I think I may be placing too much emphasis on this which is causing me too spot entries later than I would like.

Was there a point in the past or particular event that provided you with a method or certain perspective to see through this kind of info? You seem to have a keen ability to call moves regardless of news flow with amazing accuracy

I have read the thread and can't find an answer to this question. Or am I just looking for experience?

Cheers.
  • #9,038
  • Jun 8, 2010 2:03pm Jun 8, 2010 2:03pm
Quoting Pipped
Last week's pb has just broken....

The ratings agency Fitch has stated that the UK needs to redouble efforts to cut its budget deficit - David Cameron's just made a sombre speech to soften the blow and the chancellor's turning to the public for suggestions!

By contrast, Japan's newly installed PM and cabinet may be providing some reassurance of stability.

Look out below! (I hope)

As time wears on, I think Europe is going to be the epicenter of a lot of issues. Switzerland and the UK can be added to "Europe."

I believe it's only a matter of time before the GBP and CHF get punished. One has to wonder whether or not we are seeing a total shift back to the US as the preferred denomination of currency. Asia should do well also. Not China or Japan, but I am thinking the Malaysian Ringgit, Indonesian Rupiah, and the Indian Rupee.

I have thought all along that China will get smoked by the Indians because simply put: When is the last time you heard about Indian drywall causing poisonous reactions in new homes?

My wife and I will purposely try to buy goods that are not made in China, (as hard as that is.) and I know there are a lot of people starting to do that.

Anyone know the Chinese word for bubble?
  • #9,039
  • Jun 8, 2010 3:14pm Jun 8, 2010 3:14pm
Quoting clockwork71
My wife and I will purposely try to buy goods that are not made in China, (as hard as that is.) and I know there are a lot of people starting to do that.

Anyone know the Chinese word for bubble?
We're with you on this. Although it is hard.
  • #9,040
  • Jun 8, 2010 3:43pm Jun 8, 2010 3:43pm
Don't fall for it, but today ended on an up note in the NY session. You should have figured out by now that we are doing this - then going down again. The following charts demonstrate why I think it's possible to see a small move back up in several markets. (This is temporary. As in like tomorrow.)
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