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Silent Service Method

  • #9,001
  • Jun 5, 2010 3:28pm Jun 5, 2010 3:28pm
Quoting clockwork71
Don't worry about it, as long as it helps someone - it belongs on the thread!
The best thing about harmonic patterns is that most of the time, they're not there.

No pattern, no trade.

So it's almost impossible to over-trade them.
  • #9,002
  • Jun 5, 2010 7:02pm Jun 5, 2010 7:02pm
Hi low
for those i used the indi ,sometimes friends trading these patterns they draw my attention to it when they find a valid one . u are right to be skeptical always good to find a reason not to take a trade , but the last time we used it to trade AN we had hundreds of pips ( remember !) , it is just a tool not more. might fail as others do.
samer


ps : USDCHF the pattern was completed a few days ago at 1.17295 a short there would have been profitable for almost 250 pip . i didnt take it ! now it is retracing back

Quoting Low
Samer...

After a bit of looking I found the one on the eu, though I worry I was curve-fitting the fibs to my expectation....but couldn't find anything on the usdchf.

Do you get these from someone else or use one of those fancy indicators?

I did a quick search and tried one and it failed to print a gartley on present price action for both pairs.

If you use an indi, will you PM it to me?

I generally prefer my own method of identification, but I would give it a try.


PS: sorry for hijacking the thread for harmonic pattern Q's.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: uchf.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #9,003
  • Jun 5, 2010 7:11pm Jun 5, 2010 7:11pm
nice of u to say that Chris
and in plus these patterns when i use it , i want to see what u are teaching is there too .
samer

Quoting clockwork71
Don't worry about it, as long as it helps someone - it belongs on the thread!
  • #9,004
  • Jun 5, 2010 7:47pm Jun 5, 2010 7:47pm
Quoting samer960
nice of u to say that Chris
and in plus these patterns when i use it , i want to see what u are teaching is there too .
samer
100%.

When you see a pattern, and a big round number...with weekly SR....divergence maybe...it's a no brainer.
  • #9,005
  • Jun 5, 2010 7:55pm Jun 5, 2010 7:55pm
Quoting Low
The best thing about harmonic patterns is that most of the time, they're not there.

No pattern, no trade.

So it's almost impossible to over-trade them.
That in and of itself makes them something I approve of!
  • #9,006
  • Jun 6, 2010 4:26am Jun 6, 2010 4:26am
Now that 1.2 is breached I'm planning my next EU short. Seems to me there are a couple of scenarios and the stem from a couple of weekly trendlines and some fibs. A retrace to 1.2 seems probable.....but can the euro climb much above that....or will it simply revisit it's lows from 2001.

What do you all think of 1.00 as a target for a short?

Cheers
CanuckCT

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-06-06_0613EU_Target.jpg Size: 151 KB
  • #9,007
  • Jun 6, 2010 4:38am Jun 6, 2010 4:38am
The other chart I really like is USDCHF to 1.40

Cheers
CanuckCT

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-06-06_0634USDCHF.png Size: 70 KB
  • #9,008
  • Jun 6, 2010 6:27am Jun 6, 2010 6:27am
Quoting CanuckCT
Now that 1.2 is breached I'm planning my next EU short. Seems to me there are a couple of scenarios and the stem from a couple of weekly trendlines and some fibs. A retrace to 1.2 seems probable.....but can the euro climb much above that....or will it simply revisit it's lows from 2001.

What do you all think of 1.00 as a target for a short?

Cheers
CanuckCT

Attachment

I think 1.18 is support as well. Don't get me wrong - I think it will give way as well, but 1.18 is my next "target."

As far as parity - who knows? There have been several high ranking EU officials hinting that parity isn't the worst thing in the world.....
  • #9,009
  • Jun 6, 2010 7:48am Jun 6, 2010 7:48am
Quoting CanuckCT
Now that 1.2 is breached I'm planning my next EU short. Seems to me there are a couple of scenarios and the stem from a couple of weekly trendlines and some fibs. A retrace to 1.2 seems probable.....but can the euro climb much above that....or will it simply revisit it's lows from 2001.

What do you all think of 1.00 as a target for a short?

Cheers
CanuckCT

Attachment
Here's my take on the EUR levels on the way down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur levels.jpg Size: 113 KB
  • #9,010
  • Jun 6, 2010 3:50pm Jun 6, 2010 3:50pm
Spend most of my day at this:

http://www.usasevenscci.com/

Pretty good time.
  • #9,011
  • Jun 6, 2010 4:02pm Jun 6, 2010 4:02pm
Quoting clockwork71
Spend most of my day at this:

http://www.usasevenscci.com/

Pretty good time.
The snippets I saw were very one sided unfortunately. Not even enough back and forth action to get a sense of play or strategy. However a very tough and interesting sport. We used to play it in the old neighborhood. We called it 'kill the guy with the ball'.
  • #9,012
  • Jun 6, 2010 4:04pm Jun 6, 2010 4:04pm
Quoting Lou
The snippets I saw were very one sided unfortunately. Not even enough back and forth action to get a sense of play or strategy. However a very tough and interesting sport. We used to play it in the old neighborhood. We called it 'kill the guy with the ball'.
We had it in sports in school sometimes. We called it sumo basketboll... as in, don't want to at the bottom of the pile
  • #9,013
  • Jun 6, 2010 4:33pm Jun 6, 2010 4:33pm
So there's patterns showing potential long-euro and short-chf, yet most folks here are looking for the trend to remain.

The RR on the euro pattern is crap, but the swissy is a lot more interesting.

So here's a question: eurusd and usdchf are usually inversely correlated, but the euro's problems are it's own, so why should that correlation hold?

We can see that the Swiss have tried many times throughout the last year to fight the continued appreciation of the franc, and lost to the smart money every time, so I ask myself, why are the big boys buying the franc en masse relative to everything but the dollar?

In fact I start to think that if the big boys like the franc so much, why do they still choose the dollar over it? And yes, I've read all the stuff on UST=risk aversion. Japan showed us many times over that central banks cannot win when pitted against the worlds largest banks in the FX market, and most of us here in the US know eventually the dollar will start sinking again, and probably never look back.....too much debt...too little revenue.


My thoughts are we could see some selling on the usdchf, though we have conflicting pins at the moment, if I see a good sell signal on the daily between 1.16 and 1.18, I'll be putting my money where my mouth is.
  • #9,014
  • Jun 6, 2010 5:21pm Jun 6, 2010 5:21pm
Quoting Low
So there's patterns showing potential long-euro and short-chf, yet most folks here are looking for the trend to remain.
I'm not sure that I see this. Would you post a chart showing the long signal on the EUR?
  • #9,015
  • Jun 6, 2010 5:38pm Jun 6, 2010 5:38pm
Quoting jharvey407
I'm not sure that I see this. Would you post a chart showing the long signal on the EUR?
IMO it's so weak as to be ignored. It's a 4H gartley. I wouldn't trade it with someone else's account. The swissy on the other hand has me salivating...

OK....I tried to take a screenshot of the euro, but today's opening action has repainted it and now it's gone...'nuf said..LOL.
  • #9,016
  • Jun 6, 2010 5:40pm Jun 6, 2010 5:40pm
I only bring up the euro because I want to short the swissy and their correlations are not to be ignored.
  • #9,017
  • Jun 6, 2010 7:20pm Jun 6, 2010 7:20pm
Quoting Low
I only bring up the euro because I want to short the swissy and their correlations are not to be ignored.
I hear you on this... I can see a short signal on swissy also, but won't take it because I am short EU... I think that once EU hits 1.1800 there may be a bounce, which may lead to a short on swissy, but it would be CT.

In my opinion any reason not to take a trade is a good one.

I don't look at the 4hr charts much because I work during the day, so I'm not surprised I missed a long EU setup, but thanks for clarifying.
  • #9,018
  • Jun 6, 2010 9:43pm Jun 6, 2010 9:43pm
Quoting Lou
The snippets I saw were very one sided unfortunately. Not even enough back and forth action to get a sense of play or strategy. However a very tough and interesting sport. We used to play it in the old neighborhood. We called it 'kill the guy with the ball'.
The final went to sudden death though. Utah took California 31-26. It was a great match. A bit unexpected though as I watched Cal thrash Tennessee 39-0 earlier in the same day.
  • #9,019
  • Jun 6, 2010 9:50pm Jun 6, 2010 9:50pm
Quoting Low

So here's a question: eurusd and usdchf are usually inversely correlated, but the euro's problems are it's own, so why should that correlation hold?
It can and will diverge for short periods of time. But you are missing something here in the big picture: Europe's problems DO effect Switzerland, as the Swiss export A LOT of their things to Europe. And the Swiss banks are knee-deep in a lot of really BAD debt. There are some reports that the banks debt is a main driver of the SNB trying to devalue the CHF.....it makes those losses a little lighter in the end.

So I believe that they could diverge, but it won't be for very long, as the Swiss are in serious trouble as well.
Quoting Low
We can see that the Swiss have tried many times throughout the last year to fight the continued appreciation of the franc, and lost to the smart money every time, so I ask myself, why are the big boys buying the franc en masse relative to everything but the dollar?

In fact I start to think that if the big boys like the franc so much, why do they still choose the dollar over it?
Mainly because of the above ideas I posted. The US exports some of it's goods to Europe, but not the mass amount that the Swiss do. (In relative percentage that is.)
  • #9,020
  • Jun 6, 2010 10:02pm Jun 6, 2010 10:02pm
Quoting clockwork71
It can and will diverge for short periods of time. But you are missing something here in the big picture....
thanks Chris, I appreciate your POV.
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