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My view of the current market

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  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 8, 2010 1:55am Jun 8, 2010 1:55am
Hi,

After having mixed results in my first year of trading, I am making a small effort to share my views on the market; both fundamentally and technically.

A good and healthy discussion is encouraged on this thread and knowledge/information sharing is the main goal of this thread.

Hopefully we can all learn from each other as we go.

Good luck.
  • #2
  • Jun 8, 2010 8:32am Jun 8, 2010 8:32am
I am seeing a long opportunity in GBPJPY at 131.

It is a daily support S1.
100% retracement of the big fall on Friday
Support has held quite firm in previous occasions.

Fundamentally, JPY crosses are due for a short term corrective bounce so I am looking to buy GBPJPY in 2 lots.

Parameters are below:

Buy 2L GBPJPY at 131.00 (Limit Order)
Stop loss for the whole - 129.50 (150 pips)
T1 - 131.40 (Move stop to B/E when we hit T1) - 23.6 Fib retracement level.
T2 - 133.20 (Weekly Pivot and 20 period SMA on 4H chart + 38.2% retracement level

Chart attached.

Good luck.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy-4h.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #3
  • Jun 8, 2010 9:09am Jun 8, 2010 9:09am
hi, congrats on your trading progress, and new thread
all the best and looking forward to learn from you
  • #4
  • Jun 8, 2010 9:21am Jun 8, 2010 9:21am
Long GBPJPY 1st lot taken at 131.15.

I revised my second entry at 130.65, to get a better price. Scale in approach.

Stoploss and TP levles are the same.



Quoting puks
I am seeing a long opportunity in GBPJPY at 131.

It is a daily support S1.
100% retracement of the big fall on Friday
Support has held quite firm in previous occasions.

Fundamentally, JPY crosses are due for a short term corrective bounce so I am looking to buy GBPJPY in 2 lots.

Parameters are below:

Buy 2L GBPJPY at 131.00 (Limit Order)
Stop loss for the whole - 129.50 (150 pips)
T1 - 131.40 (Move stop to B/E when we hit T1) - 23.6 Fib retracement level.
T2 - 133.20 (Weekly Pivot and 20 period SMA on 4H chart + 38.2% retracement...
  • #5
  • Jun 8, 2010 9:27am Jun 8, 2010 9:27am
Quoting puks
I am seeing a long opportunity in GBPJPY at 131.

It is a daily support S1.
100% retracement of the big fall on Friday
Support has held quite firm in previous occasions.

Fundamentally, JPY crosses are due for a short term corrective bounce so I am looking to buy GBPJPY in 2 lots.

Parameters are below:

Buy 2L GBPJPY at 131.00 (Limit Order)
Stop loss for the whole - 129.50 (150 pips)
T1 - 131.40 (Move stop to B/E when we hit T1) - 23.6 Fib retracement level.
T2 - 133.20 (Weekly Pivot and 20 period SMA on 4H chart + 38.2% retracement level

Chart...
looks good.. congrats for this new thread.. subscribed.
Anything is possible; everything is negotiable
  • #6
  • Jun 8, 2010 10:04am Jun 8, 2010 10:04am
Hi Puks,

how do you do buddy? glad to see you still around, good job
  • #7
  • Jun 8, 2010 10:09am Jun 8, 2010 10:09am
Quoting ben10
Hi Puks,

how do you do buddy? glad to see you still around, good job
Good to see you too Ben. Lets catch up sometime next weekend.
  • #8
  • Jun 8, 2010 10:28am Jun 8, 2010 10:28am
Quoting puks
Good to see you too Ben. Lets catch up sometime next weekend.
yep, i should and i could, just shoot me an email , its a long week end you know!
  • #9
  • Jun 8, 2010 6:35pm Jun 8, 2010 6:35pm
Trade update:

TI is hit (it was 132.40) - 131.40 was a typo.

Stop at BE, Trail by 100 pips to lock in 200 pips on the trade.

Quoting puks
I am seeing a long opportunity in GBPJPY at 131.

It is a daily support S1.
100% retracement of the big fall on Friday
Support has held quite firm in previous occasions.

Fundamentally, JPY crosses are due for a short term corrective bounce so I am looking to buy GBPJPY in 2 lots.

Parameters are below:

Buy 2L GBPJPY at 131.00 (Limit Order)
Stop loss for the whole - 129.50 (150 pips)
T1 - 131.40 (Move stop to B/E when we hit T1) - 23.6 Fib retracement level.
T2 - 133.20 (Weekly Pivot and 20 period SMA on 4H chart + 38.2% retracement level...
  • #10
  • Jun 8, 2010 11:52pm Jun 8, 2010 11:52pm
Hi buddy,

Congrats on your new thread.I think it's great that you opened this thread to post your charts and analysis.You will soon realize that how your trading skill improves by doing it.

Btw. well done on your Dragon trade
  • #11
  • Jun 9, 2010 1:56am Jun 9, 2010 1:56am
Quoting shahab8b
Hi buddy,

Congrats on your new thread.I think it's great that you opened this thread to post your charts and analysis.You will soon realize that how your trading skill improves by doing it.

Btw. well done on your Dragon trade
Thanks buddy. I thought it was not a good itea to share my views on your "soon to be professional" thread and hence I opened this up.

FWIW - AUD is ripe to go higher. We have a triple bottom at .8070-80 area.

I will post charts once I get home.
  • #12
  • Jun 11, 2010 7:29am Jun 11, 2010 7:29am
Quoting puks
Thanks buddy. I thought it was not a good itea to share my views on your "soon to be professional" thread and hence I opened this up.

FWIW - AUD is ripe to go higher. We have a triple bottom at .8070-80 area.

I will post charts once I get home.
Hey Mate,
It's fine if you wanna post something there, as we've got two , one for discussion one for signals. We need to update the signals though.

But in my experience, if you gather your post in one place, like what Amyc and Saxon do, you will improve on your trading skills as you can go back and see what went right and what went wrong with your analysis.
  • #13
  • Jun 14, 2010 11:41pm Jun 14, 2010 11:41pm
GMAE,

I was away for the long weekend. Just back last night and now back to trading from London session today (Tuesday 15th June).

I am not infront of my charts but I have fundamental views on eco events tonight.

Cable :-Cable's inability to close above a major 1.4760-80 zone has reaffirmed my view that bearish trend is still in place. I am expecting a much weaker CPI numbers today which could push cable back towards 1.46-1.4560 zone. But we could, in all liklihood, see a push higher towards 1.4820-40 zone right before the data. I would be selling there rather than buying the break.

If the CPI numbers are hotter than forecast, I will immediately my shorts, no matter what the P&L is.

Euro :- German ZEW data is due to be released today and I am expecting it to be weaker as well.

If the eco data comes out as per my expectations, we could see 1.45 infront of cable and 1.20 infront Euro within next 16-18 hours.

Cheers
  • #14
  • Jun 17, 2010 5:14am Jun 17, 2010 5:14am
G'day,

I am seeing a great opportunity to short EURUSD at 1.2390.

Reasons for taking trades are:

1. Classic Bearish divergence
2. Wave 5 completion

Charts attached.

Trade set-up which I have already taken. Intent to scale positions in with HARD STOP at 1.2475

Entry with 2 lots with maximum position size is 4 lots.

Enter at 1.2385
Stop - 1.2475
T1 - 1.2300
T2 - 1.2150
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-4h.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #15
  • Jun 17, 2010 10:01am Jun 17, 2010 10:01am
HI Puks,
Good to see your thread. Will definately be a frequent visitor. I hope I can learn from your skills.

Good luck.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #16
  • Jun 22, 2010 8:55am Jun 22, 2010 8:55am
I am seeing a head and shoulder formation in Cable in 4H charts. The typical rally in cable following the budget is something to be sold into.

Here is my chart attached which is self explaining.

I have started to scale in position from current level (market price 1.4810) and will add one more at 1.4880 (if it gets there) with hard stop at 1.4960

Good luck.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable4H-22062010.png Size: 64 KB
  • #17
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:42am Jun 23, 2010 8:42am
I am getting bullish USD based on Moving Average cross over on 4H chart. This is usually a trend following pattern and when confirmed, is good for a good 200-300 pips. Also USDX seem to have formed a double bottom in medium term, IMHO.

Lets see how this plays out.

chart attached - self explanatory.

Cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDX.png Size: 46 KB
  • #18
  • Jun 23, 2010 8:44am Jun 23, 2010 8:44am
I am still holding this cable short. It came admonishingly close to hitting the S/L but I am still in the trade. Its quite frustrating but I will hold on to this.

Cheers


Quoting puks
I am seeing a head and shoulder formation in Cable in 4H charts. The typical rally in cable following the budget is something to be sold into.

Here is my chart attached which is self explaining.

I have started to scale in position from current level (market price 1.4810) and will add one more at 1.4880 (if it gets there) with hard stop at 1.4960

Good luck.
  • #19
  • Jun 23, 2010 10:17am Jun 23, 2010 10:17am
You're EURUSD short is looking good! I'll follow your progress here.

Good luck!
  • #20
  • Jun 24, 2010 10:31am Jun 24, 2010 10:31am
Quoting puks
I am seeing a head and shoulder formation in Cable in 4H charts. The typical rally in cable following the budget is something to be sold into.

Here is my chart attached which is self explaining.

I have started to scale in position from current level (market price 1.4810) and will add one more at 1.4880 (if it gets there) with hard stop at 1.4960

Good luck.
This Cable trade stopped out.

Total loss on the trade. 1x - (-140) pips + 1x - (-60) pips. Total loss = 200 pips.
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