Fibonacci insights

...as well as Trend Lines are an excellent method to capture 'natural boundaries' and the breakout thereof.

One could draw conclusions being able to gauge the market sentiment by looking at (Fibonacci) Price Action:

...deep Price Retracements into the 78.6% - 88.6% areas (the 'Retr. A' and 'Retr. B' of the Fib Tool), and subsequent retests and price Rejections off of the 61.8% - 30.9% Fibonacci levels, could indicate that the market is challenging the current trend and is looking for a move in the opposite direction.

...securing the perimeter n' Sarah Brigthman & Andrea Bocelli performing live again; are there any, any further questions whatsoever*? **

* No, there is no magical EA, there's only hard work and constant self-evaluation
** I would further suggest that, for any none related trading questions you might want to ask and find some answers over here!


...''I Have No Further Questions, Your Honour...''

Hi trader613,

Things are getting clearer to me, but what about the relationship between the levels, entries and exits? For example, what "signal" would you use as an entry? If you enter at a PF level, what level would be your exit?

Thanks for sharing.

OK.

You would like me to be more specific, as my humble teachings have not as yet given enough drive, ideas and the impulses to perhaps indulge in some exploration….

Fair enough.

Though, can I ask and could I throw this back at you; what is it exactly that you'd want me to be doing:

A: spell it out to you that, many ideas, concepts and answers have already been planted in here, no need in my humble opinion, to elaborate any further.

B: still, it would be a good idea and purpose to show some more practical hands on examples, in anticipation that this will perhaps do the trick.

C: I shouldn’t have needed to ask at all, silly me, because….

Hold that thought for a moment please, while I go….

Inserted Video

...and make myself a nice fresh cup of hot coffee!!*


* I couldn't have not brought such a legendary 'kick up the heels' speech into here; this could've well been happening at a Prop Trading Firm downtown somewhere...!! LOL

...never mind.

Hello everyone and welcome back! Nice, that you are still with me after being shouted at by Blake – wow, he made me spill my lovely coffee over my new carpet; this speech had some intensity to it! (it was very rude as well, sorry about that)

Anyway.

As a token gesture I would like to invite you to Billy’s local establishment; Bears & Bulls for a little FX imbiss: (Bears & Bulls does exist; no joke)

As our Entrée, we shall start with:

Confirmation:

The more confirmation you are looking to get from the markets before you decide to enter on a trade, the more you'll have to pay for such.

It’s very simple.

There's no such thing as 'free lunch', (not even at Billy’s).

Risk more - gain more – and vice versa. But the emphasis is always on the word 'Risk': no risk, no gain (no play)...

As the Main Course we're having:

Sentiment:

Gauge the sentiment of the markets; I've shown you how to do it - again, use logic and common sense. Decide on a trade direction and stick to it (until stopped out of course) – also, as pointed out before, it’s all about probability: and probability it shall be and remain so – it will never be more than that. You can attach as many bells and whistles to your charts as you like, but:

A good trade looks uncertain, that’s as good as it gets, so trade it.

Tools: the 'Fibonacci Grid', if you like, acts as a natural territory and provides a framework, and it is to be considered as such only. - Once you've decided on a direction for a trade, thus based on probability having judged the market’s sentiment; make use of tools like the Fibonacci Fan, Trend Lines and Trend Channels in order to trigger your trade.

For a Breakout Trade triggered by a Fibonacci Fan 'Line breach', I would suggest that you try all different Fib Fan angles: 38.2, 61.8 and 78.6 - again: the more confirmation you want, the later you will get into a trade - the safer it might be - but just watch out for those early bird traders who are already closing their trades on your entry - that's all.

In any case - Trend Line or Fibo Fan Line Breakout Trades: filter your entries by only entering your trade on the next candle - if the new candle goes over/under the previous candle high/low. (That's why having a clock indicator on your charts showing the remaining candle time to close is a good idea indeed).

And for Dessert there is:

Fried Ice, and Air Pudding. Joking! I will post some more charts soon, if you like ...(another coffee break now? )

OK.

Lets go over some more Trading ideas -

Using the Fib Fan is not a contradiction at all to the standard Fibonacci Retracement principle - in the contrary - it supplements it. Fib Fans are adding a time dynamic to the whole concept.

Further, the Fibonacci Fan is also an excellent tool to use as a Dynamic Trailing Stop-Trend Line; also, one can gauge the intensity or pressure of a current wave/move:

Fib Fan Angle Levels; starting from the intensive angle of 38.2 thus showing a very healthy and strong current trend in place, if, and as long, price is keeping to be confined behind that 38.2 Line-Angle. Once price has breached this line; it's perhaps time to close out your trade!


...Let us now take matters a step further, and to utilize the Fib Fan as a Trade Breakout Tool as well - mainly we shall look at the 61.8 and the 78.6 Fib Fan Angle Levels (and in some cases you can/might want to use the 38.2 as a trigger level as well).

All those Angle Levels of the Fib Fan can serve and act for us as being our Trade Breakout entry Trigger Lines:


In Fig. 1

- you would draw and plot the Fib Fan this way, if you still were to conclude that the market wants to continue it's down trend - hence having thought about, and hence the fact, what we know about the Trend Reversal Price Action Fibonacci Principle, (high/deep retracement and early bounces/or no bounces whatsoever, could indicate a Trend Reversal), nonetheless, if you are still holding on, and like the idea of going short, then, matters would be like this:

if you would have chosen for the 38.2 Fib Fan Angle Line to act as your Breakout short line - that would have been fine, and still ok.

Why? Simply because there would have still been 'enough meat on the bone', so to speak - as the market would have wanted to most likely test again the 61.8% - 30.9% Zone area (the Take Profit-Zone area, being, the PTA to PTD levels of the Fib Tool).

However - it might have not been such a good idea in this case (because of the Fib PA Trend Reversal Signs), to wait for the 78.6 to act as your short entry Fib Fan Line, because this Line for your short entry is in a direct confluence within your Take Profit-Zone (again: the Take Profit-Zone area being the PTA to PTD levels of the Fib Tool).

Thus using the 78.6 Fib Fan Angle Line to act as your Trigger Line in this scenario, is not a good idea.

So, to sum it all up: be flexible in choosing which one of your Fib-Fan Angle Lines should act as your Breakout Line. ok? Excellent!

So! Lets take the other more likely 'play scenario'; still keeping in mind the Trend Reversal Fib PA in this example, and having decided to take a long trade on this 'down-Fib'; and such is shown in:


Fig. 2

So, you might decide to take the 61.8 or to wait for further confirmation (whilst keeping in mind that, there is no 'free lunch') only to take the 78.6 as your Fib Fan Line entry for your long trade in this very example here - this is what I was referring to earlier on; saying about having to weigh risk vs. gain. You might even like to use the early 38.2 Fib Fan Line to act as your Trigger Line - again, all this is for you to decide.

Also, with regards to placing a Stop Loss: take the previous swing high/low - or, place your Stop Loss at price congestion areas.


Fig. 3

ooohhhh! That's a dangerous one: picking - No waiting for any confirmation. No trend lines. No Trend Channels. No Fib Fans. Just Fibonacci. In it's purest form.

Where the yellow box is drawn on the chart, would be the support zone for price in this current 'down-Fib' - And, one more time, lets go over the Fib Price Action: High/deep retrace, and the market will want to perhaps test again the 61.8 - 30.9 zone areas. Just maybe.

Because, the market might not even make it back to the 61.8 (depending how strong the reversal is). But if price does make it back down:

go long in a 'down-Fib' in those 61.8 - 30.9 zone areas, and vice versa for an 'up-Fib' - go short in those areas.


Fig. 4

...And if Fib Fans is not really your thingy - then just stick to the good old Trend Channels - The Median Line, the upper and lower lines of the channel - Simple. Again, use Fib PA.

Further - whatever you decide to be your most appropriate trading style to fit your personality: use price filtering when entering trades as mentioned in the previous post.

Furthermore, a word about Stops - they hurt; but love them, because they are your friend! (so they don't hurt - that much)

My best.

Killin' it mate, keep it up

Question:

What happens when a herd gets a goad, hearing this:

''code red!''

...But then, guess what?


Suddenly, you see a bunch of those http://i46.tinypic.com/21n01no.jpg running into something like, THIS: http://i48.tinypic.com/11m5iti.jpg ! (or v.v.)


Answer:

Oh-eh!!!

Right.

Trend Reversal, or rather, the failure of:

Can you please recall for me: ''...The market keeps telling a story, to which we don't know - and actually don't need to know the ending - no one does. The story unfolds and probability plays our part - certain things are meant to happen at certain price constellations and price actions - and if they don't for whatever reason, then, something else is probable to happen...''

Lets now talk about this, 'something else':

I just wanted to elaborate again, and trying to explain that we have tools available at our disposal, so that we may safeguard and protect our hard earned work!

The Fib Fab can be a: "Jack of all trades, and is master of all"

Again: you may use the Fib Fan as a Trailing Stop, but also, if the sentiment has changed because something was meant to happen but didn't, so therefore, something else is probable to happen...and if this again doesn't, then again, som..... it's ; that's what it is....

And once more: if you don't like using fancy schmancy Fib Fans: then don't!

...Trend Channels, Trend Channels... all day, every day!

My Best.

Hi Trader,

I am still testing your strategy getting the hang on it more this week on demo had some good results did it only on 4 currencies and oil at a 15 min timeframe.

What is normally your winning change this week got around 70% so thats impressive.

And damm you got some creative mind like the vid you placed from you tube



Thanks

Ingmar

Hi Ingmar,

First off; it's good that you are using the word: 'strategy' and not… lets leave it there.

Further, in my humble opinion; Demo Accounts are only good for one thing, and one thing only: To test the functionality of your Platform, but NOT your trading.

…the 15 minute TF is good; they're all good – excellent that you have found a TF that suits your individual needs.

I am really glad to hear that you are getting some positive results, though I must say, Trading as such is more, -and all about personal growth and challenge. You can only excel at something if you love what you are doing with a passion.

Success and everything else follows automatically – in this field there is no such thing as being average – it's about being 'the' best.

Thank you Ingmar.

Does anyone else have any further questions please?

...I would like to go over once more to show an example of a 'live'-Fib, or better said: a price swing in action, whereby, this swing would only be considered as established once we would see a first proportional retracement of such.

So in Chart P.1 -

We can see a 'down-Fib' as is shown in #89 - .50 bounce (this could further confirm that the down trend is in force, or in tact once again) and Price subsequently extending to the -0.382 level (the so called 'Renew Fib old INVALID' level of the Fib tool).

Therefore, it is now time to draw a new 'Live'-down-Fib. And such is shown in:

P. 2 -

Further, whenever a zig will appear - this 'Live'-Fib, would be considered 'as sealed'.

Meaning that, this swing or wave count 'has been set in stone'.

Therefore; once a zig appeared, adjust and move your Fib tool accordingly to the corresponding and actual swing high, or swing low - whatever the case may be.

Furthermore, to only move along or swap around your Fib tool once again, if, and only if price will reach any of the two (up or down) ' Renew Fib old INVALID ' levels - and such is NOT time related.

My best.

Time to relax a little (I mean, after plowing your way through 67+1 of my postings).

...turn up your speaker volume a bit - click on the play button - and while going deeper and deeper into relaxation;

in your minds eye, see yourself...

...focusing on your charts locating hidden price gems, executing them flawlessly, while constantly updating new market information and closing those trades with great ease - you have truly earned it...

Dear Trader613

As you said, By To me From your Email- You Got the voucher http://www.forexfactory.com/member.php?u=52027

and I would love if you Express Your thought From My Ew count chart.


Take care

lmao.. thanks for makin me feel so guilty mate! hehehe...'system' came straight into my head, before I even think the three dots were processed :o

To the OP: Why the heavy campaign posting on peoples profiles? All I can be sure of is that you have posted on mine and every one of the people who have vouched for you in the past week. Hmmm.

'for' posting some more chart examples in this thread, are:

1. I have the compelling urge to share my enthusiasm in what we are doing - what a greater place could there be then right here on Forex Factory (and since 'I have my own thread'), and especially after being welcomed so warmly by most, if not all fellow members! Thank you!

2. Judging the thread statistic's; I have personally come to the following conclusions; correct me if I am wrong please:

there are so far, approx. 13k views for this thread, of which:

a) 49 have downloaded the Fib swing indicator.
b) 41 the Fib tool code - that could either mean that: eight people had problems with adding the MT4 Fib tool code, or, eight people just 'fancied' the zig zag indicator.
c) 93 people actually opened the Monthly EURUSD chart, probably of which: 41 - 49 are the group mentioned in a/b, and, approx. 40 ish may not like/believe, etc. etc. but, nonetheless for a double check 'no', they did have another glimpse, and said: Thank you, but, No thank you!
d) 50ish people who downloaded the indicator and settings, actually went through with the (meager) presentation; of which (only): 7 - 10 people found it compelling and kept on reading and going through until the very end.

Therefore:

- I would like to stay 'devoted' to 'd'

- and, I would like to awaken perhaps some further interest to 'c'. So to speak: 'win over' some more (...Yep, I'm taking cover now as we speak - people (predators??? {I really dare to say, ohh, I'm really pushing it now}) the likes of Leonlorenzo & Co are just waiting for...FOR...f-f-fo...)

And finally:

if anyone has any objection(s) whatsoever, well; speak up now - loud and clear; the floor is all yours... (we shall place a 'LOL' here (yeah, right here); I mean, that should lighten-up things a little, we wouldn't want any blood being shed in here; would we?!

OK!

Let's get to work:

Picture 1 -

as explained in this post: this is a new 'Live' down-Fib, and we shall extend the Fib Tool accordingly, if: a) price extends further and, b) if price is making a proportional retracement of this down move, therefore 'setting this swing in stone'. This is shown, in:

Picture 2 -

the zig was drawn - this fib is now, so to speak, 'sealed'. And once more: to only move along or swap around your Fib tool once again, if, and only if....; LOL!!!

trading-ideas examples!

(thus, no need to be explained any further, as it would be the same as hearing Sergei Rachmaninoff playing for the 30th time, and, ...and ...whatever!!)

waiting for some live examples if possible

If you like, lets go over the decision making process/procedure once you have plotted a Fibonacci study to your chart:

First:

Lets understand that there are 3 + 2 price Zones when looking at the Fibonacci Grid:

three within the price swing (price sitting somewhere between zero and a hundred),

and, the remaining two zones are split between; price being above the current set price swing, or below it.

Step one:

Having plotted the Fibonacci study to your chart: ask yourself, what zone is the market currently in? Is it in the middle/upper, or lower zone of the current set price swing, or, has price has extended or projected below/above the current price swing?

Step two:

Asking yourself looking at the current Fibonacci chart:

- how many times has price made a retracement already?
- has price already been able to reach the upper/lower retracement areas?
- if yes, did price create a double top/bottom, (inverted)head and shoulder or formed a V-Top/V-Bottom?
- has price been rejected from the 30.9 to 61.8 areas?
- is price 'stuck' between, -or in any of the zones?
- if price has extended; where did the price bounce off of? Is it a shallow, or a deep bounce?
- if price has projected; from which area did price get rejected from? Is it the .50, the 61.8 or perhaps even the 78.6 or the 88.6 areas?

Step three:

Having processed above market information - it's time for you to make, and come to a definite personal market sentiment conclusion:

is the market: bullish, bearish or perhaps neutral?

Step four:

You have filtered out a possible probability - you now need to set your self a trade trigger - having calculated your RR ratio, including, of where to set your stop loss in case, you have misgauged the market sentiment - or, there was a change in the market sentiment.

Step five:

Monitor your trade - and finally book your profit, or, protect your capital by unshakably executing your pre-set stop loss.

....More charts/live examples anyone? No, don't think so.

PS: if anyone believes that the current customs version of the MT4 Fib Tool is; 'over the top', please let me know, and I shall work on a 'scaled down' version.

Best.