Current market conditions insights

Hello all,

First thread I start, so don't pull out the flamethrower yet , I'm just interested in your insights here and if you need to correct anything I've written, please do.

I've been doing a lot of reading so far before seriously getting into 'serious' live bets (I traded a bit on currencies with a 0.1/0.1 per pip, not the smartest way to start but I felt 'I was too good for a practice account'... ye right), and by that I mean both in forums and real books.

I had a look at a few strategies that gathered a lot of responses on FF, and tried to apply them in a practice environment.
This just does not work for me. To be specific, I refer to the following 3 posts' :
- Peter Crowns DIBS aka The Free coffee thread (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=56907)
- TMS by Eelfranz (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=291622)
- Jacko's trend following on dips + 'home made hedging' (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=27286)

I know those 3 threads are more about the advice given by their OPs (or PC for the first one, tho Bemac's advice was very useful as well) than just the strategy, but nonetheless, this seemed to be quite handy for thread participants back then.

Nowadays, when trying to apply these, I invariably end up having my ass kicked with the SL hit. From there, I tried to widen my SLs, which led to :
- Worse R/R Ratios than seen in those posts
- Larger stops still being hit

In another thread, a member kindly explained that the ATRs from back in the day had tightened and that markets are less trendy/more choppy nowadays.

I would like to get your take on this. Are those trend following strategies gone ? Before the napalm hits, I will clarify what I mean by that.
- PC's DIBS was looking for breakouts that would go with the bigger timeframe (specifically daily when looking at H1 bars) trend
- Eelfranz's method wanted to jump on the bandwagon during the first 1-2 candles of a new move.
- Jacko would look at dips, but then would follow the main trend as well.

What happened ? I understand that markets would periodically switch between trendy and ranging, so are those methods just not fit for the current environment, or has the market just become a noise fest by evolving? Looking at older charts, it felt like there was much much much less noise on timeframes H1 and above 4-5 years ago. Even on daily charts I see regularly wicks that are large compared to the body, and I guess that my problems come from there.

Any insight would be much appreciated

There is some true in this words. The market is going in to range. It is normal for this time of the year. Most of the markets participants are in vacations. Probably the markets will be more volatile and choppy until October.
Anyway probably you won't succeed with this systems. You will need more than this because the game is a lot more complicated that most of the beginner traders think.

i agree with kvv888, studies are important but you really need to invest time and energy, understand the market, the market condition. We are here as a community to help, this website is very, useful when you know how to interpret

Thanks for your input Kvv !

I understand seasonality and a quiet summer time with some (most of ?) traders going on holidays, but I was more referring to a bigger picture, taking into account the last 12-24 months. Current conditions are definitely meant to create confusing charts (especially with the whole Greek drama going on on top of summer hols).

My understanding of a system is that you require a set of rules, and ideally that set of rules has to be created by you to match your personality and what kind of trader you are/can be. The rest is a matter of mindset, money management, risk tolerance and understanding of the bigger picture, both for the market as a whole and the specific instrument you are trading.

Maybe more accuracy in my question could help here :
For people still using those systems (and using them profitably), how have you adapted your money management to new market conditions ?

I'm not looking for spoon feeding here but more for picking some brains and understanding how and why changes to a previously winning system are made