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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #65,621
  • Jun 6, 2010 10:52pm Jun 6, 2010 10:52pm
Quoting supremeChaos
maybe your orders disappeared because the limit orders expired...
Hi SC, yes I did set the orders properly and they appeared in the orders tab after I put in the orders. But this morning, there was nothing on the orders column and they did not even showed in the activity tab. Normally, every order will be showed in activity tab, and even after the order expired they will still showed that the order is canceled due to time expiry. But this time, there are no traces of my EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD order anywhere
  • #65,622
  • Jun 6, 2010 11:07pm Jun 6, 2010 11:07pm
esbatu,
are u sure u pressed the 'Submit' button for your orders? heheh
hmmm...
try emailing/chat with Oanda.
  • #65,623
  • Jun 6, 2010 11:09pm Jun 6, 2010 11:09pm
Quoting Bemac
I've done some pretty wild stuff with manipulating a Fibonacci Sequence but have never considered 55 as being a number of interest.

Could you extrapolate please.


Beyond the psychologically relevant 200 SMA, all my moving averages are based on Fibonacci numbers. Fibonacci is a MATHEMATICAL LAW OF NATURE.
1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 144 233 377 610 987 1597 2584 4181 6765

I just wondered why 60 when 55 is the nearest fibo number sequence.


I suppose I considered it like rounding off PPZ to the nearest RN.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.jpg Size: 110 KB
  • #65,624
  • Jun 6, 2010 11:19pm Jun 6, 2010 11:19pm
Quoting Pinbar
Beyond the psychologically relevant 200 SMA, all my moving averages are based on Fibonacci numbers. Fibonacci is a MATHEMATICAL LAW OF NATURE.
1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 144 233 377 610 987 1597 2584 4181 6765

I just wondered why 60 when 55 is the nearest fibo number sequence.


I suppose I considered it like rounding off PPZ to the nearest RN.
What is the point of the MA's????
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #65,625
  • Jun 6, 2010 11:20pm Jun 6, 2010 11:20pm
Quoting syyzxsyf
[font=Century Gothic]Hi,

I am following this thread for some days. It is very informative and very helpful. Thanks for all your great information. Currently, I am demo trading based on daily and 4 hour pinbar.

Today I get a pinbar setup which occurs at the extreme. I take it but I still have some confusion. I post my thought process here and wish you have a look and give me some comments.

I use FXCM as the main feed source.
Attachment
As the rule, I should buy at the break of the pinbar and 10 pips higher. But I am a little late...

Divergence should only be used in sideways markets. Using divergence during strong trends gives many many false signals. Take the macd/rsi off your charts completely for better trading.
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #65,626
  • Jun 6, 2010 11:31pm Jun 6, 2010 11:31pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
What is the point of the MA's????

Those EMA in the blurb I posted are basically used with the same EMA configuration with High Low Close to form a tunnel.
PA forms a high-Low Higher Low Lower High, then breaks out or visa vi for short.

There is no deep meaning to my question, I am just pondering rounding them off.

I guess my mind should be elsewhere but I had very little sleep last night.
  • #65,627
  • Jun 6, 2010 11:40pm Jun 6, 2010 11:40pm
Hi, Dan:

Thanks for your reminder. I am not taking MACD as the only indicator to guide me in. I am looking at it as another kind of proof to raise the possibility.

I am looking at the pinbar (that is the root reason for this trade). And since a divergence is there, I am expecting a larger move up!

The thing worries me most is that there seems to be a resistence just above the pinbar. Currently, the price goes up and tries to beat the resistence 1.2730. I wish it break up and go my way

Regards,
Yang



Quoting Dan Gilbert
Divergence should only be used in sideways markets. Using divergence during strong trends gives many many false signals. Take the macd/rsi off your charts completely for better trading.
  • #65,628
  • Jun 7, 2010 12:05am Jun 7, 2010 12:05am
Hi,
Thanks for your help
W

Quoting ghous
It's snagit

g.
  • #65,629
  • Jun 7, 2010 12:46am Jun 7, 2010 12:46am
Quoting novice198
Hi Jonny,

Looking at GBP USD weekly PB, I see an opportunity there while playing on the Weekly TF. Therefore, can you explain "Cons - No space". My plan to play this PB is as under:-

Max risk 1% SL of 370 Pips just above the PB.
Enter 0.2 posn @ 1.4392 at break of PB,
Enter 0.3 posn @ 1.4536 @ 35% Fib Level
Enter 0.5 posn @ 1.4587 @ 50% Fib Level
FTA 1.4260

Cheers
Novice 198
Hi Novice,

Perhaps "space" was not the term I should have used. However Mike posted an excellent video in this thread about the importance of space (hope he doesn't mind me reposting it here http://drop.io/cfnoat3 )


What I mean with this location is, We are at a swing low point, and the FTA is very close (1.4260 as you stated)

We have no idea what type of order flow we have below those bar lows, as the price hasn't visited that area for over a year.

So personally if I was to play it, I'd be taking full profit before those lows, and therefore the R:R simply isn't good enough for me to take a punt (on a relativly weak bar anyway)

As far as retacements goes, I don't play them. I'd rather see a hard break and price run straight to the FTA where I revaluate things. (but thats just me, I know some people trade trade the Fib retracements very sucessfully)

Good luck if you took it
  • #65,630
  • Jun 7, 2010 2:57am Jun 7, 2010 2:57am
Hi:

I am a newbie and I like your charts. As to the GBP/CHF, I worry the support level (around 1.6638) below the pinbar. If I short this, I want to short at the retracement to the 5.23-5.28's week high (after the pinbar break and become valid). And then I wish it will go south. I am not sure whether it is a good way to play that.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHF Weekly.gif Size: 27 KB


Could some experienced guys give some comments?

Regards,
Yang

Quoting Jonnyislost
Hey Guys

Just checking out the weekly closes and there I noticed that the GBP looks pretty heavy across most pairs (except of course against the seemingly hapless Euro)

None of these setups meet my requirements for a trade, But these setups will be in the back of my mind If I take Daily and Intraday trades next week.

GBP/USD - Nice Pin, closing below 1.45 and in a big downtrend. Cons - no space

GBP/JPY - Average Pin in a downtrend, but not a very convincing close, and no space

GBP/CHF - The best of the bunch IMO, Great location (7000...
  • #65,631
  • Jun 7, 2010 3:48am Jun 7, 2010 3:48am
Quoting syyzxsyf
Hi:

I am a newbie and I like your charts. As to the GBP/CHF, I worry the support level (around 1.6638) below the pinbar. If I short this, I want to short at the retracement to the 5.23-5.28's week high (after the pinbar break and become valid). And then I wish it will go south. I am not sure whether it is a good way to play that.
Attachment

Could some experienced guys give some comments?

Regards,
Yang
Hi Yang

I believe many traders here play retracements like the one you outlined in your post. Unfortunatly it's not something I practice so hopefully someone else here can give you advice with that.

As for the yellow area you marked that's a clear trouble area with all those bar highs in close proximity, and would be a good area to adjust your stop to breakeven/ reduce risk / take profit etc

However looking further back there are bar highs/lows all over the place (many trouble areas) as this pair has been quite choppy/sideways recently. So I think its a trade to be very careful of.

Sorry I can't help you further (I am a newbie too )

J
  • #65,632
  • Jun 7, 2010 4:00am Jun 7, 2010 4:00am
Quoting syyzxsyf
Hi:

I am a newbie and I like your charts. As to the GBP/CHF, I worry the support level (around 1.6638) below the pinbar. If I short this, I want to short at the retracement to the 5.23-5.28's week high (after the pinbar break and become valid). And then I wish it will go south. I am not sure whether it is a good way to play that.
Attachment

Could some experienced guys give some comments?

Regards,
Yang
I am not into retracement trades myself, but what I know from what I have read here at the thread and seen others do is that these trades because of their aggressive nature are almost always played on very high probability setups (unlike the one you mentioned), setups where one can be absolutely certain that they will break or test a trouble area just that they are taking their time in doing so which can then be exploited to enter at a better price albeit at a higher risk.

Again this approach requires tremendous experience and a very good feel of live market action which no amount of back testing can ever accomplish, it's a skill only time can reward you with,

For newbies our recommendation is to always stick to the core basics of the method and follow James' min requirements outlined in the first post of the thread. A great number of ppl get on with the task reluctantly because they are being made to go against their ideas, but trust me there are abundant examples where a reluctant inception to the journey has become the most adorable job ever...and it all happens when the power of consistent profits sets the mind right.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #65,633
  • Jun 7, 2010 4:04am Jun 7, 2010 4:04am
Quoting supremeChaos
esbatu,
are u sure u pressed the 'Submit' button for your orders? heheh
hmmm...
try emailing/chat with Oanda.
Yes, I'll do that. Thanks SC
  • #65,634
  • Jun 7, 2010 4:28am Jun 7, 2010 4:28am
A PA setup should never be the root reason to enter a trade. Location should be the main reason. A PA setup at a good location is merely the trigger. Location-wise, the trade only has the MACD in its favor... nothing else. In other words, a person cannot be confident that this pair will make a decent move up.

Scott

Quoting syyzxsyf
Hi, Dan:

Thanks for your reminder. I am not taking MACD as the only indicator to guide me in. I am looking at it as another kind of proof to raise the possibility.

I am looking at the pinbar (that is the root reason for this trade). And since a divergence is there, I am expecting a larger move up!

The thing worries me most is that there seems to be a resistence just above the pinbar. Currently, the price goes up and tries to beat the resistence 1.2730. I wish it break up and go my way

Regards,
Yang
  • #65,635
  • Jun 7, 2010 4:45am Jun 7, 2010 4:45am
Thought I would post this trade
This is based on Daily and looked down on lower time frames for entry short off BRN 1.4500 and off 50% Fib...will be moving stop to BE shortly
Attached Image
  • #65,636
  • Jun 7, 2010 4:55am Jun 7, 2010 4:55am
Quoting Atc
Thought I would post this trade
This is based on Daily and looked down on lower time frames for entry short off BRN 1.4500 and off 50% Fib...will be moving stop to BE shortly
I also took a trade of 1.45 number with the trigger being the 15 min IB on attached chart. I never post these kind of trades on here usually but it is similar to yours today.

Look at how price moved strongly up into this area. It usually needs to retrace when it does this as has happened now.

I do not move stop to BE on these trades as I take a quick 1:1 profit typically as I did this time for 20 pips. Just makes it easy for me to manage them this way as you need to think quickly on lower timeframe.

I would keep an eye on the price action as the 4 hour BUOB at the 62 fib ret is still something that could push price up against you. The area you have traded at is decent (this area is a ppz if you zoom out) but your fib looks to be incorrect for a sell trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 15 min ib.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #65,637
  • Jun 7, 2010 5:01am Jun 7, 2010 5:01am
Quoting fxprocessor
I also took a trade of 1.45 number with the trigger being the 15 min IB on attached chart. I never post these kind of trades on here usually but it is similar to yours today.

Look at how price moved strongly up into this area. It usually needs to retrace when it does this as has happened now.

I do not move stop to BE on these trades as I take a quick 1:1 profit typically. Just makes it easy for me to manage them this way as you need to think quickly on lower timeframe.

I would keep an eye on the price action as the 4 hour BUOB at the...
Thanks for your insights FX
  • #65,638
  • Jun 7, 2010 5:05am Jun 7, 2010 5:05am
Would like to see how this turns out 11 hours later...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 0607eyd.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #65,639
  • Jun 7, 2010 5:20am Jun 7, 2010 5:20am
Quoting Atc
Thanks for your insights FX
NP mate. Also apologies as your fib looks ok actually.

The uptrend looks to have continued so my quick in out technique worked well this time. I miss all of the big runners though.
  • #65,640
  • Jun 7, 2010 5:28am Jun 7, 2010 5:28am
Quoting fxprocessor
NP mate. Also apologies as your fib looks ok actually.

The uptrend looks to have continued so my quick in out technique worked well this time. I miss all of the big runners though.
yes..got out with a few pips ...didn't like the stall around 1.4475...and the strength of uptrend....i did not have the conviction too turn hang in there and turn it into a loss....although from what I see it should go lower
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