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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #16,001
  • Jun 6, 2010 1:44pm Jun 6, 2010 1:44pm
Quoting jest1081
noted fti. but basically i was referring back to the early studies used for training.

nevertheless volitility matters most in all situations, the waves dont always conform to abcde, its mostly used as a mind map,

boss correct me if im wrong. cheers


hi leon.
hope its understood. thanks.
I just did Jest.(corrected your mindset)
The market form molds your strategies. Not the other way around. Curve fitting to expectations is dangerous way to dance. Its just another way of crystalballing the market.

again ! Bias every one will tend to have. Trade the dance not the bias.

regards
  • #16,002
  • Jun 6, 2010 1:46pm Jun 6, 2010 1:46pm
Quoting fti
If you still not able to understand what i wrote you earlier about your arrogance and ego. Then let me make it crystal clear to you.
YOUR ARROGANCE WILL KILL YOU IN THE MARKETS. kapish?

No one, not even whats written here can help you. There is nothing here that will be of any value to you.
So what am I supposed to be other than arrogant when 3/4 of thread participants are making underhand insults toward me? If others have made the information in this thread work for them then so too will I.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #16,003
  • Jun 6, 2010 1:47pm Jun 6, 2010 1:47pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Considering we are trading as FTI does, on the 5min charts, using higher ones for a bias... If we are against which trend (5m, 1h, 1d) should we bite the bullet? How would we decide to start a rescue? What kind of sign would we want to see from the 5m chart?

This leads to another question... If we are using a higher TF to find a/the trend, then I assume we would be OK with the 5m trend changing against us. So would we start a rescue when we can see the 5min trend has changed back to the direction of our initial position?

@the poster who has...
Against the daily trend. On the 5min say you put out a scout out to ride wave AB and it fails to reach wave CD then i would start looking to implement a rescuse.

Quoting fti
I send in a scout (wave AB), he plays well and I decide to check him, I send in 1 checker, which is my level 2 (wave CD)
and level 2 plays well, that would mean that wave CD is short and plays above wave AB. If wave EF retraces then i would be forced to invoke rescue 5 and I go into rescue mode.
On rescue sequence it needs to be heavier 1,3,3 which is the same as 1,1,2,3 as they both = 7 but more aggressive in saving your troops.
  • #16,004
  • Jun 6, 2010 1:48pm Jun 6, 2010 1:48pm
Quoting fti
I just did Jest.(corrected your mindset)
The market form molds your strategies. Not the other way around. Curve fitting to expectations is dangerous way to dance. Its just another way of crystalballing the market.

again ! Bias every one will tend to have. Trade the dance not the bias.

regards
haaa thanks! missed this kinda 'knock on the head' reminders from you.

i guess all of us would fall into this curve fitting stage from time to time due to our own lackness in having a stronger mindset. gotta erase those elliot images on my head

hope to see you more often fti, coz if you dig in...im gonna bunker up too lol!
  • #16,005
  • Jun 6, 2010 2:04pm Jun 6, 2010 2:04pm
Quoting jest1081
haaa thanks! missed this kinda 'knock on the head' reminders from you.

i guess all of us would fall into this curve fitting stage from time to time due to our own lackness in having a stronger mindset. gotta erase those elliot images on my head

hope to see you more often fti, coz if you dig in...im gonna bunker up too lol!
Jest,
There is nothing wrong with wave counts, with the exception of the compound counts (wrinkles).
The best that bias should do is only influence your aggression or lack of, not your dance.

regards
  • #16,006
  • Jun 6, 2010 2:14pm Jun 6, 2010 2:14pm
Quoting GEfx
I have been reading the posts from today and recommend that leon re-read the first 200 pages. The questions seem out of sequence to me. If you do not know how to trend, or how to think about trends on different time compressions, I am not sure why you are thinking about rescue, which to my little brain is a more advanced trading technique. In addition, it is probably a good idea to talk about PA at some point, too, before you get into rescue or snowballing. Just my thoughts from the sideline, since I am not acting as teacher/leader here, but rather...
Well, what a trend is has been clarified now. In an uptrend, HH and HL ideally. The uptrend has officially ended when a LL and LH has been made. Higher TF trends trump lower TF trends. Under FTI's lessons, we use the Trend from a higher TF to decide on our bias.

PA? I didn't notice much discussion about that. I remember direction to a book at some point.

Thanks for the post.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #16,007
  • Jun 6, 2010 2:32pm Jun 6, 2010 2:32pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Well, what a trend is has been clarified now. In an uptrend, HH and HL ideally. The uptrend has officially ended when a LL and LH has been made. Higher TF trends trump lower TF trends. Under FTI's lessons, we use the Trend from a higher TF to decide on our bias.

PA? I didn't notice much discussion about that. I remember direction to a book at some point.

Thanks for the post.
Hi Leonlorenzo

off topic:
Please, you know what it is Marxism? (your sign "The happy Marxist!")
I lived there nearly 20 years, and no happy ...
  • #16,008
  • Edited 2:47pm Jun 6, 2010 2:35pm | Edited 2:47pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
I sincerely hope that these posts do not have me in mind.
Leon,

The man on the ground or the man in the balloon, only you can choose.

regards,

Regarding rescues.

What is the difference between mistiming and wrong direction?

Why is my rescue skew more aggressive than my attack skew? And how do I figure the needed troops (position size) for rescue per level?

What is the intent of a rescue ( in detail what am I trying to accomplish and which story describes this)?

Why would I even want to rescue?

What is a turn on wind?
  • #16,009
  • Jun 6, 2010 3:26pm Jun 6, 2010 3:26pm
Quoting Gro
Hi Leonlorenzo

off topic:
Please, you know what it is Marxism? (your sign "The happy Marxist!")
I lived there nearly 20 years, and no happy ...
Of course I do, I wouldn't be silly enough mention it in my sig if I didn't. Marxists are generally happy folk in their outlook, aren't they?
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #16,010
  • Jun 6, 2010 3:39pm Jun 6, 2010 3:39pm
Regarding rescues.

What is the difference between mistiming and wrong direction?

Wrong timing = Trend still intact but position in the minus.
Wrong direction = Misread trend or trend changed.

Why is my rescue skew more aggressive than my attack skew? And how do I figure the needed troops (position size) for rescue per level?

We aim to have as many wins as possible, and the skews are best suited to this. Recovering losses quickly and not risking losing positive pips if price reverses after one adds more lots.

Volatility?

What is the intent of a rescue ( in detail what am I trying to accomplish and which story describes this)?

You are adapting your trade as the market changes, controlling exposure, trying to get back out of loss. The Shrink? I'm not sure.

Why would I even want to rescue?

Winners don't lose.

What is a turn on wind?

I'm not sure. Fighting against the trend?
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #16,011
  • Jun 6, 2010 3:45pm Jun 6, 2010 3:45pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Of course I do, I wouldn't be silly enough mention it in my sig if I didn't. Marxists are generally happy folk in their outlook, aren't they?
Hi Leonlorenzo

Idea is nice but reality is the totality.Not accept the human.
Marxist is happy in Capitalism or Democracy ....

Regards
  • #16,012
  • Jun 6, 2010 3:52pm Jun 6, 2010 3:52pm
Quoting Gro
Hi Leonlorenzo

Idea is nice but reality is the totality.Not accept the human.
Marxist is happy in Capitalism or Democracy ....

Regards
Marxism/communism is good when you look at 'people' as a whole. It's fair? Yep. The problem though, is that we aren't 'one', we are individuals. We need to fight, we need hierarchy, otherwise we get bored; we want to be rewarded for our efforts.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #16,013
  • Jun 6, 2010 4:01pm Jun 6, 2010 4:01pm
I loved Ronald Regan's comment which went something like this: How do you tell a good communist? One who has read Marx and Lenin. How do you tell a good capitalist? One who understands Marx and Lenin.

Edit: Time to work on my charts. See you at London open.
  • #16,014
  • Edited 4:23pm Jun 6, 2010 4:06pm | Edited 4:23pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Regarding rescues.

What is the difference between mistiming and wrong direction?

Wrong timing = Trend still intact but position in the minus.
Wrong direction = Misread trend or trend changed.

Why is my rescue skew more aggressive than my attack skew? And how do I figure the needed troops (position size) for rescue per level?

[color=red]We aim to have as many wins as possible, and the skews are best suited to this. Recovering losses quickly and not risking losing positive pips if price reverses...
Leon,

Think about the nature of the markets in trend and when it is that you realize that you are wrong, dependent on time frame viewed. What has to happen on the charts, each new high or low does what to the picture and what you would do, here is the battleground, and AOW principles apply

Here's is the key to "turning on wind" as it deals with the mechanics of reversing positions.

You need to think about the material and internalize it, not a quick surface read.

Aggressive rescue skews deal with your average vs. current price, you need to understand the mechanics of your average in relation to market when skew is applied, going both ways as the two will be your guide.

When you understand this you will understand the detail of the rescue.

The need for rescue is apart of the reality of loss effect on your book, understanding the needed returns to profitability and the reason why you don't want to take a hit.

Every time you add or subtract it effects your average position in relation to the current chart battleground, and every time the chart makes a new high or low or failure of such changes the battleground in relation to your average, the goal is to add and subtract in the direction of the trend, the ebb and flow taking the maximum profit without getting trampled, this is the dance moving in and out, buying the lows selling the highs, trading the ranges as the market unfolds.

All of this is there in the thread, keep digging and apply the lessons to the charts.

regards,
  • #16,015
  • Jun 6, 2010 4:17pm Jun 6, 2010 4:17pm
Quoting GEfx
I loved Ronald Regan's comment which went something like this: How do you tell a good communist? One who has read Marx and Lenin. How do you tell a good capitalist? One who understands Marx and Lenin.

Edit: Time to work on my charts. See you at London open.
  • #16,016
  • Jun 6, 2010 4:17pm Jun 6, 2010 4:17pm
Quoting Gro
The wind blows the money for you or vice versa.
OK, trends don't (usually) just start and shoot off. Is the turning on wind thing about getting in(and out of the old position) on the 1st retrace of the new trend?
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Living the adventure in my head.
  • #16,017
  • Jun 6, 2010 4:28pm Jun 6, 2010 4:28pm
Enough is enough.
Leon must find by himself the rest.
Many of the questions are already
answered within the 200 p.
The market is opening soon.
Back to the charts.
I am out from this conversation.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #16,018
  • Jun 6, 2010 4:29pm Jun 6, 2010 4:29pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
OK, trends don't (usually) just start and shoot off. Is the turning on wind thing about getting in(and out of the old position) on the 1st retrace of the new trend?
Rigid.
It could happens like that
and also in many other ways.
Just trade and you will find the rest.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #16,019
  • Jun 6, 2010 4:34pm Jun 6, 2010 4:34pm
Quoting luSan
Enough is enough.
Leon must find by himself the rest.
Many of the questions are already
answered within the 200 p.
The market is opening soon.
Back to the charts.
I am out from this conversation.
I'm sure others are finding my questions helpful. Only you seem to be too selfish to help.

I have read what I have been asked to, and now I am posting to ask questions and clarify points. I don't know what the outcome of the little exam Aus just gave me is because he hasn't told me if I was correct.

I want to learn. Yet you refuse to help me do so. My questions are ones that have arisen from reading the 1st 200 pages. I suspect there is much more to ponder on in the further pages, but that is too daunting for now. Like Aus said, I need to internalise the 1st 200 pages 1st... and I do so by asking Qu's and trying to clarify points.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #16,020
  • Jun 6, 2010 4:37pm Jun 6, 2010 4:37pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Regarding rescues.

What is the difference between mistiming and wrong direction?

Wrong timing = Trend still intact but position in the minus.
Wrong direction = Misread trend or trend changed.
Wrong timing not to catch tops and bottoms (eat fish head and tail is harmful)
Wrong direction later you will find this=while no money in the account

Quote
Why is my rescue skew more aggressive than my attack skew? And how do I figure the needed troops (position size) for rescue per level?

We aim to have as many wins as possible, and the skews are best suited to this. Recovering losses quickly and not risking losing positive pips if price reverses after one adds more lots.

Volatility?

What is the intent of a rescue ( in detail what am I trying to accomplish and which story describes this)?

[color=red]You are adapting your trade as the market changes,...

rescue skew more aggressive?!? You understand the exponential and linear growth?

1,1,2,3,5,8 = 1winner to 19 loser

Quote
What is a turn on wind?

I'm not sure. Fighting against the trend?

The wind(trend) blows the money for you or vice versa.
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